Sitemap - 2022 - Sarcastosaurus
Ukraine War, 17 December 2022, Supplement: Who is Victor Bout?
Thanks for correction/update; glad to hear from you, and glad to hear you're safe.
I know there are lots of artillery exchanges, but haven't heard about any major concentrations of…
Tragically, there are always enough stupids horny to provoke a war - and politicians horny about…
....without a functional - and well-defended - power grid: not sure.
It takes plenty of things to make an offensive possible.
Just as an example for all the moronic nonsense flying around.
The answer is a 'straight no'.
Yes, sure, 'but': when people can't even understand the meaning of the number 22....
I'm of the kind who does not trust and does not consider worth attention any reports about arms…
Thanks Alexandra, have corrected this.
That's certainly explaining a lot, but one question remains: why are they as effective in this war?
No idea, mate. Really: no trace of idea - and no time to go checking.
Thanks a lot for letting me know, Patrick.
I consider myself a 'war monitor', a military-historian, while these protests are a 'political…
Sadly, Russian 30mm auto-cannons have proven extremely dangerous already during the fighting…
Very sad to hear that, Roman: both tragic and extremely dangerous.
Check replies to one of my last 3-4 assessments/reports, please.
What do you expect in response to such questions?
Of course, they could't and thus didn't do that.
You're always free to explain me how do you expect 'mobiks' with 'between 0 and 2 weeks of…
held back all the time: there's only about a dozen of them in operations.
Ukraine War, 12 December 2022: The Bakhmut Paper
It is explaining the elements of the power grid: most of people are not aware of how complex this…
Apparently yes: you're right! It was Georgians.
As mentioned already 2-3 times: nope, I do not expect any let-down in the intensity of this war…
OK, thanks: added a corresponding commentary, to avoid any kind of misunderstandings.
....ah, and now you're to the usual rubbish with online psychoanalysis.
Yup: can confirm that. 'Details to follow'.
Ukraine is running production of some types of missiles for the S-300 system; not sure about Buks…
NP. BTW, since i'm always keen to learn something new: how do you want to be 'neutral' in regards…
A-ha! That's making sense, thanks a lot!
I know of that place, but no way was any Ukrainian Su-25 in that area (at least not since 24…
I know it's blocked in Ukraine, for example; even in some of EU countries - though not in Austria…
Of course he is, and yes, I'll agree with the rest of your response, any time of the day.
Thx. Figured it out already - and corrected. ;-)
That's, simply, the reality - and don't worry: yes, you've got it.
Will be discussed later on: don't want too many to fall asleep while reading all of this. ;-)
Yup, in charge of Rostec. Definitely one of very few men in Russia worth following.
Yes, they do: reason prevailed.
That's not only 'a dream' of Soviet/Russian generals.
Gosh, that's complex... really: complex.
They're already doing so: see Wagner's use of convicts.
4X (can't recall the designation, right now) Mech....
....you're not the only one who's frustrated.
Yes, there is - and a (relatively) 'simple' one: arm Ukraine. Pronto.
I think that there were simply few maps showing something that wasn't supported by facts.
....and that of the BND, and MI6, and HNA.... :D
I actually did explain this, some 3-4 times already, in my earlier updates/reports.
Ukraine War, 2 December 2022: Air War Update, Part 4
Yesno. Like Putin of Russia nowadays, Milosevic of Serbia has provoked an entire chain of…
Not really a 'pleasure', Max: would be happy if it would be under much better circumstances.
AFAIK, Ukrainians never even attempted pushing along Oskil towards north to the border (that is…
As explained in one of my last two reports: such 'tactics' is holding up the ZSU.
My pleasure. And nope: haven't heard much fro that area.
Will be addressed in the next report.
Then please don't jump to conclusions, and don't (mis)interpret along your preferences: ask.
For my 'fully professional' writings that are 'sticking to my actual expertise', including detailed…
Yes, mate, but that would take more than 1 battery. More like 3-4.
Merkel was all the times working into the hands of the German oligarchy, and this was cashing…
That's not 'in a couple of weeks': training of additional Ukrainian troops, and re-training of…
AFAIK, they were sold/delivered early during the war; perhaps even before the war.
Yup, by friendly units - and yup, because of poor communication and next-to-non-existing…
Please excuse me if I cannot hold back the observation that - the rehabilitation came much too late…
Nope, not yet. Thx for the link.
With other words: the life of refuseniks is going to be converted into a juridical hell...
Sounds logical, but is not going to happen.
....and yet more of online psychoanalysis... :rolleyes:
So, the entire story about the USSR - was 'another Jewish conspiracy'.... or what?
....supplying generators to Ukraine?
What 'Red Army' is - still around, just for the start?
....you've ignored the content of my entire feature, only to recite all tthe old dogmas all over…
....and now mind: you're discussing this with somebody who read thousands of documents, hunderds of…
That's the point: traditionally, the VVS and then the VKS trained very little.
....knee-jerk reactions like yours are getting lame.
Thx. Re. MiG-25 'vs XB-70': MiG-25 was actually developed to counter the B-58, and to - generally …
The document in question is stored in the National Archives of the USA.
If the fan-base is sensitive about well-documented truths about Israel, then I'm - definitely - the…
Yup; can't but agree with most of this.
If you've read it - how comes you're declaring this and other of my statements for 'lies'?
You can't know what I know - until you read things I have read.
Ukraine War, 22 November 2022: Air War Update, Part 3
Theoretically, every single can be re-used - and that's including about two dozens of MSTA-S' and…
Have discussed this again and again during the summer.
Pentagon finding 'some small and nimble contractor'....?
Yes, probably correct - for a combined figure of KIA, WIA and MIA.
No idea. I only recall that Russian artillery tube cut by Ukrainians, few months ago and shown that…
Be sure, I do not mind questions: there are just too many of them, and too many are repeated too…
Ukraine War, 21 November 2022: Another Q&A
Some very good stuff you're asking about.
Could be, but unlikely. AFAIK, the Russians are not entering such coordinates into their systems.
Yesno: I'm no NYT, but haven't seen nor heard of any 5V55Us in action during this war - yet.
Ukraine War, 17 November 2022: Surovikin’s Billion-Dollar Strikes
I would recommend checking the entire Twitter-thread I've linked.
The Russians are simply constructing several defence lines.
Sorry, but anybody expecting either side in this war to 'grant safe exit' to the other....
One thing is to _constantly_ haul _enough_ supplies over the river: another is to get troops back…
Indeed, the disorganisation within the VDV, VSRF etc.
Ukraine War, 16 November 2022: General Update
Ukraine War, 8 November 2022: Air War Update, Part 2, (still) Basics
Not as precisely: only such examples like that F-6s donated to Pakistan back in the late 1960s…
Ukraine War, 4 November 2022: Air War Update, Part 1, Basics
You can always point all of us at better coverage.
Of course not. They need it as a 'supply bridge' to Kherson, and for the North Crimean Water Canal.
Ukraine War, 29 October, 2022: Q&A
Don't think it's really 'Syria', as much as 'reliability of the officer in question' - from Putin's…
That frontline is huge, and it takes time to build-up forces and supplies for a new offensive.
The GenStab knew that all the time, which is why the VSRF is equipped and trained to rush forward…
Nope. Sorry, can#t know all of such details.
They already did (see the link in the article).
Of course it would be far cheaper to help Ukraine win quickly.
From the hindsight, it's 'easy' to talk about effects of V1s and V2s from the Second World War.
One is deploying what is available in the given area.
1991....you mean the coup attempt in Moscow?
Yup: he was lucky not to fall down the stairs and then out of the window....
It is the same like in Syria: destroy the ability of the enemy to survive, then hope he's going to…
Well, as mentioned in this report, in this case, they failed - and miserably at that.
Don't know about any kind of his social media presence: used to read his articles in Novaya…
Sorry, had some health issues, then it took me some time to catch with all the work that piled in…
1.) Obviously, they can. But, not the 'usual' way, for running mass mechanised attacks.
That's the point: generals day-dreaming about 'commanding armies with a click of a button' - that's…
0-2000m from (behind) the frontline.
Think about the max range of 120mm mortar - and mind the fact that nobody is deploying them…
Yup: it's the networking of the info that's making the difference to earlier times.
Thx, yes: definitely interested.
Russia is meanwhile re-supplying and re-inforcing from the East, most of the time.
OK, I've heard the same but: where was the 126th deployed?
Who needs an ATMS at higher than tactical level, though?
Analogue to the former ACIG.org website?
AFAIK, they run away from that place, too.
Such scenes ocur 'when everything else failed' - like dogfights in modern air combat.
Think, NATO is going to be very happy if Ukraine accepts membership... (and not only NATO).
....while artillery 'rules' for at least 200 years...
Yes, Davydiv Brid was overrun yesterday, mopped up today.
It's the reconnaissance-kill-chain that overcome movement.
That's the point: there are no Wunderwaffen.
Could be. However, that about 120mm mortars knocking out tanks is from (several) 1st-hand-sources.
The problem for the VSRF is that Putin is constantly throwing all of its theories, planning…
Nowadays, there's a new term for fighting that way: 'technoguerrilla'. ;-)
Ok, Ok...will try to write something about that, too...
From my POV, that's 'predicting future'. Sorry, don't know and thus can't say.
Sorry for that: happens all too easy, 'in the heat of the battle'.
Ukraine War, 4 October 2022: Kherson
....well, given he never defined what part of Ukraine is he annexing....
Kremina - yes. Not sure about Beryslav.
Sorry for typos: mind, I'm always critically short on time.
Zusko. Meanwhile, for his achievements in the original advance, he was appointed the Deputy C-in-C…
Foremost it means: ZSU has no problem with matching the VSRF in all-out mechanised warfare.
What's that old statement...? Caesar is Caesar, and smith is smith, or something like that....
Northern Kherson is to follow (either later today, or tomorrow).
Because Pution ordered attack, no withdrawals.
Ukraine War, 24 Sep — 3 Oct 2022; Russian Counterattack on Kupyansk
Isn't that the character who wronte a big article to explain why am I a 'Nazi'....?
I doubt even Shoygu knows exactly how many....
Saw this, short while ago. No trace of clue.
Ukraine War, 30 September 2022: Lyman Pocket
Gauging alone by the map, yes, the Russians would have it hard to defend, say, Svatove, if…
We'll see. Right now, they're still busy just with getting the first 70,000 to Ukraine.
Yes, I have no doubt: Putin is trading troops for time, aiming to stop Ukrainians on the 'border'…
Ukraine War, 29 September 2022
Have you got a more precise figure?
Call me biased, but none 'directly' about that affair.
Organised surrender = nope. Nobody there is ready to risk his skin for 'saving few troops'.
Sorry, today 'no comment' on Torske.
Russian POWs are double-processed: first by the ZSU, then by SBU: whoever wants to stay in Ukraine…
....and causing problems for Ukrainian units transversing in between any villages converted into…
Russian artillery is still very much around, and still superior in numbers and firepower to the…
Found it: it was in Petropavlivka.
Ukraine War, 28 September 2022
That's called the Doppler Filter.
Please, get serious: it's 2 Ferraris. :D
....if any of them would only let me know to what account are they paying... :D
Sorry, by best will, I've got no time for that: busy running all of this -
AFAIK, that was a single article either the Washington Post or the New York times, citing five…
Ugh... if I would run any kind of media, there would be no end of reports about corruption…
For Russia to run a counteroffensive, it needs operational and coherent units.
Nope, sorry: no clarity in that regards.
Somewhere south-east of Pisky-Radkivsky.
Ah yes, thanks! Now I recalled the 20th GMRD.
Ukraine War, 27 September 2022
....and, furthermore, I'm also working for SAVAK/MI/IRGC (ask Iraqis), for MI6 (ask Iranians), for…
That's the point: Douma has legitimisied the PMCs, back in April or May, and ever since they're…
PMCs were 'legitimised' by the Douma, a few months ago (please, don't let me search for related…
The frst trains hauling the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (consiting of newly-mobilised…
I always reply to any troll the way he/she deserves it. At least once.
As long as he's got enough troops there's no problem for him - and he's going to have more than…
That's an alternative view of the downing of that Su-30SM.
Good question! Yes, they surely did.
Beg your pardon but: the troops in question are volunteers, serving on contract for the government…
It's definitely better to encircle it instead of wasting precious lifes to assault it: the Russian…
Instead of calling 'Nazi' somebody you have no trace of clue about, go and enlist in the Armed…
Yup, that's why all the 'combat experience in Syria' - is so utterly useless in this war.
Ukraine War, 25 September 2022
Google Maps is perfectly fine/Google Maps ist volkommen OK.
Yesno: unless the Russians start flying their Iranian-made UAVs the way they began using their own…
Surveillance UAVs like Shahed-129 need no high speed.
Yes, stuff like Gepard would work....
Shooting them down is no problem.
Series production in Russia depends on secure and steady supply of high-tech components either made…
Ukraine War, 23 September 2022: Intro to Iranian UAV/UCAVs, Part 3
Certainly so, yes. Logistics never sleeps.
It is not - and it's shown Separatist recruits.
Nope. But then, I do not think they're going to activate 300,000, 500,000, or 1,000,000 at once.
They did use them - for most of the tracking and targeting, not for attacks, though.
Now insert the IRGC-thugs in charge of such merchant system - and you've got the picture.
Israel - and coming to anybody's rescue?
The root cause to this war remains just one: Putin's drive to keep himself unaccountable - by…
Indeed: have heard the Switchblades are 'not working'; just like ground-launched Brimestones.
Gauging by the fact that they're experiencing massive problems just while trying to keep a quarter…
You never heard of Baghdad Bob, David....?
Yes, their service is 'extended' for undetermined time.
Very much my pleasure, Anton (and don't worry about your English: it's perfectly fine).
....not in a matter of 'few weeks'.
Ukraine War, 23 September 2022
The answer will become obvious in the coming days and weeks.
Kiril, I'm fine with any other asessments. Really.
Ironically, that's what all the veteran VKS and VSRF officers I know are complaining about.
The VSRF's logistics system in Ukraine collapsed already four times - and that while trying to keep…
I do consider it another bluff: of course, it must be taken seriously, too.
the last I've heard it was badly damaged: still standing, but not in use.
All you need to do is to provide evidence for such 'repression' and these 'Ukrainian Nazi…
My count is at somewehre around 60 aircraft and helicopters.
OK. We're now one week later. Whad has changed....? What did matter?
.....I explain it once, you don't like it.
Nope. The fact its frontline is penetrated, means not 'automatically' that an army is destroyed.
Yes, of course. But, who in Russia cares about single soldiers?
Ukraine War, 21 September 2022: Putin’s ‘Mobilisation Light’
....and not only the USA: the EU - and Germany in particular - was as horny to cash in the PRC.
Considering how much Western technology they were able to obtain - whether directly or via such…
Sources on Iranian-Chinese cooperation?
Answers to such questions are what I'm aiming to achieve with this 'short study'.
That's quite close to my assessment, yes.
Indeed: this is so interconnected, it's mind-boggling. Just wait to see the Part 3.... ;-)
Ukraine War, 20 September 2022: Intro to Iranian UAV/UCAVs, Part 2
Oh, I'm not bad-mouthing: trying to explain what happens when people ignore reality.
That's going to be covered in the 'Part 3'. ;-)
A 'friend in Dushanbe' said it was Shoygu's visit. Arguably, he was not 'close enough to see'....
Yup, you're right: following cross-checks, it turned out that it has none.
Please mind, this is not that simple.
Ukraine War, 19 September 2022: Intro to Iranian UAV/UCAVs, Part 1
Yes, 'System Putin' is a feudal system of rule, with an 'absolute ruler' at the top.
Is OK. I 'credit' this to 'manoeuvre warfare' - and my lack of understanding of what exactly are…
As mentioned in 4-5 other replies, meanwhile: air warfare will be discussed in the coming days.
...there's one 'nice' characteristics about Soviet-designed pontoon bridges - as in use by the ZSU…
Is perfectly fine with me, Panzer: you've asked, I've offered a 'Pi mal Daumen' calculation.
....and I tend not to discuss with people who are advice-resistant but still come to the idea to…
As mentioned in response to some 2-3 other similar querries today: is going to be 'covered' in one…
Iranian UAVs and their impact will be discussed in one of following reports.
Well, check Hernry Schlottman's calculations here:
'IF'.... there are lots of 'ifs' in every war....
Regarding 'works of literary fiction', I recommend this read:
I do not know the author nor his/her work, and thus find it pointless to comment.
Frankly, as always: 'monitoring' an ongoing war for any longer than 3-4 weeks is depressing- and…
Oh, thanks a lot: very happy to hear that!
Thx, yes, extremely busy days...
Ukraine War, 18 September 2022
Yes, they are. That's making this development even more ironic.
Please, think about it: how shall I know?
Be sure, you're not the first to do so.
The intensity of the Russian artillery activity in the East (from Kharkiv to Vuhledar) has…
I cannot stop repearting myself: Putin is an extortionist.
Of course there are. These are ranging from 1,200 up to 10,000...
Yup, that's the way I see the situation too.
Let me see (some 'loud thinking'):
One of members of the Douma said it flatly, 'it is impossible to win this war'.
As of yesterday, I knew only about 'north of Slovyansk'.
It's definitely so that Putin is curious to subvert and destabilise wherever he only can.
Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan War, 17 September 2022
Yes, the Wagner is doing that, the lsat few days - in prisons.
AFAIK, it's even higher than 1:1 - in favour of artillery.
Ukraine War, 16 September 2022: East Kharkiv
If it's too weak, then why is it refusing to make peace?
You did say 'Muslim extremists'.
Arman, I'm delighted whenever hearing from an Armenian in such a reasonable way. Thanks a lot.
Armenians do not care about and do not tollerate anybody - but Armenians.
They say they are 'Artsakh', Azerbaijanis say they are 'Armenia'.
We're free to discuss these double standards in the public - 'without being afraid of falling out…
....if one is applying double standards, like the West usually does: oh yes, and very much so.
Armenia vs. Azerbaijan, 12–14 September 2022
Such 'explanations' are little else but laughable.
Ukraine is not running an aggressive war, and has no pretentions on a square foot of the Russian…
Oh, I understand emotions, no problem.
Don't know what to think of that.
I'm hearing rumours about 'negotiations' i Kherson since 2-3 days now.
Just one observation: a combat withdrawal is one of most complex military undertakings.
Sorry, I do not trust any such claims.
OK, at least the final paragraph indicates you understand what am I talking about.
I do not see anything to agree or disagree in your reply: you're discussing apples, me oranges.
....got some 2,000 'friends requests' there: lets hope I can find you....
....actually, the more I read different 'reactions' and 'replies' here, the more it appears you're…
....gosh... again: it doesn't matter what do you or me consider. :rolleyes:
Dear heaven....this wouldn't work even if I draw it. Sorry, no point in re-trying it.
But, that's the point all the time: it doesn't matter what I think.
Ah, now everything is clear: you do not understand what am I talking about.
They're vulnerable only if the ZSU manages to take Pisky-Radkivsky, and then secure the line…
As explained: from Putin's POV, yes, victory is (still) possible.
Izyum is irrelevant for Donbas. A 'left over' from the times of the Plans C, D, E and F....
NP. Just explain me: why should Putin care about his 'aproval ratings?'
I'm not talking about 'Ukrainian forces spreading too thin'....
No clear idea where it was deployed - except that only one of its BTGs appeared in eastsern Kharkiv…
It's not my point of view, but I'm trying to explain the way Putin thinks.
Yup. That's the 'essence of the Plan G'.
The last I've heard, they negotiated a withddrawal. That was yesterday afternoon.
The frontline isn't longer, but the border along which there's 'minimal activity, thoguh enough to…
Nothing. But, since when should Putin care what does 'another average soldier/citizen' think?
Gosh, no 'cunning plan', no 'ruse' or whatever. See my replies elsewhere.
Sorry Mike, I think you've completely misunderstood what I try to explain (is obvious alone from…
Putin has no problem with avoiding responsibility alone becuase he's never issuing clear, direct…
It is a huge blow: a shame for Putin, first and foremost.
Yes, at least a week - and probably longer.
No 'mass advance': they're too incompetent for that.
Again: look at the situation from Putin's POV.
Step by step. Right now, the next step is 'Plan G'.
All 'irrelevant' - since 'replaceable'.
From Putin's POV: FAR more valuable.
Ukraine War, 11 September 2022; a Review
....must admit, still have a big problem trusting Rybar - even if he's meanwhile one of 'most…
Every 'decent' Russian oligarch is supporting only himself.
Nope. No idea what's going on there.
Your English is perfectly fine - and your insights outright 'enlightenting'.
...yup, a 'goodwill gesture'.... :P
Thank you - and did so already several times (see 'clues' about HNA/Heeresnachrichtenamt/Austrian…
Of course there is such an option.
....yes, but mind: the US Army and allies were all running out of fuel and food after four-five…
Cannot but agree with Dmitry: Russia is much too 'kaputt' for a general mobilisation (and that…
Mind, Kostia: on a map 'that's few centimetres'.
No 'prediction': simply the logical next move.
Ukraine War, 10 September 2022
Gauging by photos, I would say 'yes'. Some say 'nope'.
Yup. Were hit from two sides, thrown into chaos and run in panic.
Things are always much more simpler than they appear.
....arrogants remain arrogants...
92nd and 93rd are both (and 'heavily') involved.
Well, 'plan'.... would like to do so, yes - provided I can get the necessary info.
Ukraine War, 9–10 September 2022
Ah yes: destroyed destroyed.... :D
Erm...help me understand: what are you talking about?
Nope. Rarely paying attention about the mainstream media.
Whatever was the goal in Kyiv, point is that Putin ordered an operation on basis of his illusions…
We all can see teh 'power' of the Russian army - in Ukraine: every single day....
Shevchenkove was by-passed yesterday. Today it's.... the P07....and far, far to the East... ;-)
....was that such true Americans like Donald J Trump, financed by Putin's black cash for 20 years…
Whom do you mean with 'we', and what are you for 'with Russia'?
OK, OK, no reason for double-post... ;-)
Exactly. Got nothing to add.... :P
Very likely - to almost certainly.
I think you've got it slightly harder - just trying to survive in Kharkiv.
...these Leopards 2 were from Rommel's 7th 'Ghost' Division....
HNA = Heeresnachrichtenamt. Austrian Military Intelligence.
Every single vehicle, and every larger tent too.
I would be happy to prepare a map, for, theoretically, it would make my work somewhat easier - and…
Is OK, Dammy, I see what you mean.
Yup. German would be Schmidtove; English is Shmidtove.
I think, the ZSU is driving up down (or 'left right', i.e.
Oh, indeed: this was a massive effort, taking them months to complete.
Can't know why is ISW marking what it does the way it does.
Depends on what photos do you mean....
Thx, figured this out, during the day.
It's too early to talk about such affairs, and sorry: I'm not into predicting future.
AFAIK, that's SE Kharkiv (Balakleya was liberated today), and Lyman (Ozerne was liberated two days…
Yes, thx, Vaylove, after all. I'll correct.
That was in the night from 4 to 5 September.
'Changed tactics' - is relative.
IMHO, that poit was a few days, if not few weeks ago.
Hard to say - which is why I'm never predicting the future.
Please, forget the Russian stories about '1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th....etc.
1.) It's certainly keeping the VSRF 'busy'. Tying forces to that sector.
Yes; doesn't mean the fortifications there have been removed, meanwhile.
...nobody forced them to invade....
Ferries do 'work', becuase Ukraine does not have enough artillery and guided ammo to target them…
1.) Yes. But not completely. Multiple strongholds north and south of Shmidtove are holding out.
Ukraine War, 5–6 September 2022: Ukrainian Attacks in Kherson Oblast
The Russian 'last stand' at Visokopillya consisted of a VDV unit surrounded by the 60th Brigade…
Pity there's no ROFL-smiley on Medium.com...
For 'original' versions, see related books by Adan, Dupuy et all, by Adan, by Blum, by…
You can always support your point of view with facts and details.
That was not from Ukrainian sources, but from Russians, quoting a quasi-Ukrainian source, for which…
Nobody denies Ukrainian WIA are treated not only in Moldova or Rumania, but all the way to Germany…
Thought I've mentioned this in one of my reports, back in August: every month, 5,000, 12,000, up to…
I'm simply too short on time to waste trying to discuss anything with him: whataboutists can always…
The commentator is clueless about the fact that this was not the case as of October 1973.
Oh, I do care about both, the 17th and the TD.
I would say, let Ukraine 'continue failing' - all the way to the Russian border.
Sorry, I'm trying to avoid discussing casualties whenever 'monitoring' wars like this one.
Kursk was simply the biggest tank battle the USSR won.
Because there're too few HIMARS and MLRS around to do everything at once.
Yup: the situation definitely looks that way.
You think the mass f those commenting this war know what is 'Bagration', or 'Overlord'....?
'Putin & Nukes' is a complex topic that takes some time to explain.
Indeed. It's silly that the same all the time cheering the 'Russian advance' over the last four…
It doesn't take a lot to melt colour from Russian barrels....
....and why should artillery advance - if there is no advance....? ;-)
I've heard it was liberated, this morning, but haven't got any details yet.
Furnished by Gothic gay-Satanist Nazi-Cyborgs on Dope.... :P
Ukraine War, 4 September 2022: Installation of AGM-88s on Ukrainian MiG-29s
Ukraine War, 4 September 2022: Ukrainian Attacks in Kherson Oblast
There's much more info available, meanwhile. Trying to put together a related report.
The area from Stanislav to Sofivka was not mentioned, but appears to still be under the Russian…
You're BS-itting with psychoanalysis: please, go and apply your 'scrutiny' on somebody else.
....don't know what shall I tell you....
....there's a little bit of a problem named 'dominating terrain', west of the place.
You forgot to add that I'm paid by CIA, Mossad, al-Qaeda, MIT, QSS, MI6, BND, HNA, IRGC.....
BTW, in the area where some say that 'at least a part' of the 128th was deployed - which is…
I've got my good and not so good days, too.... :P
You 'no know better' than the Keystone Cops in Moscow.
Sorry, but I doubt that - and very much indeed.
Hm... I'm optimistic and positive about Ukraine since 2-3 days into the war: as soon as it became…
I've mentioned this in my report two days ago: there's simply no evidence the 128th was even…
Up front, after studying so many, I consider any war for a completely unnecessary tragedy.
Saw Konashenkov's 'report' with my own eyes, and concluded the same - like half of Ukraine seems to…
Re. FB: only 'friends' can post comments.
I, dutifully, and from the bottom of my heart, apologise for this disgusting and incomprehensible…
Ukraine War, 2–3 September 2022
Indeed. That was why I was all the time laughing about all the map-drawers that were showing 'all…
Point was, is, and is going to remain: representing 'developments on the battlefield' in that…
Then why don't you go and negotiate with Putin?
At least it's certain that gauging the entire situation by the science fiction spread by Rybar …
I'm not making any kind of predictions.
They're too arrogant to study anybody else's experiences, anyway.
I do think that a 'big raid' is perfectly possible.
They did try, but they lack the means to do so.
Erm... I'm neither a 'lecturer', nor a 'professor', and would never come to the idea to say…
Psssst! Don't tell that to the Russians... ;-)
Ukraine War, 1 September 2022: Manoeuvre Warfare for Beginners
Yup, 'thinking a step ahead of what I'm typing' ;-) I'll corect.
IMHO, Rybar's map shown a deep penetration south of Davydiv Brid is 2 days old (i.e.
People tend to forget that top Ukrainian strategists - by their background usually being 'Soviet' …
Of course, from the 'Western' point of view, this operation is 'not making sense'.
No surprise. Really: no surprise.
Ukraine War, 1 September 2022, Q&A Session, Part 2
I think you might find it more useful to study Austrian and German political landscape in serious…
'Livemap', 'Igor Girkin', 'RobLee', this and that online instance: all nice and fine.
Sorry, not making any predictions.
Your terminology is very unusual, making me uncertain about the content of your qeuestion.
Sorry, but - in comparison to Kherson - that's simple: if the Russians capture anything, there's…
There are at least five different versions of transliterating this name from Ukrainian to English …
....unless they're sent to fight a high-intensity war - not at all.
I remain at the point that 'Keystone Cops in Moscow' is the best description for the Russian MOD.
Ukraine War, 31 August 2022: Ukrainian Attacks in Kherson Oblast
It's more like 6-7 directions, of which 3-4 might have worked.
YPR-653, infantry fighting vehicles based on M113 armoured personnel carrier.
Thx.... happens when one is typing 1000+ hits a minute ;-)
Nope, it's not critical (far from that) - and yes, they're perfectly able to deliver much more.
Patrick described them, perfectly.
Ukraine War, 29 August 2022: Ukrainian Attacks in Kherson Oblast
Re. reported offensive in northern Kherson: still collecting data and analysing.
Yes, the Western politics is as 'hopelessly misguided' as endemically corrupt.
M777 is foremost more expensive (since made of titanium), while less critically reviewed (actually…
If it's about 'system', then one in which the economy cannot take direct influence upon legislation.
Worst of all: it's less than '1%': more like 10-30 richest.
Will be discussed in the Part 2, tomorrow.
Funny - but I (strongly) doubt that. ;-)
Ukraine War, 29 August 2022, Q&A Session, Part 1
....and more of taxpayer's money is money-laundered into the pockets of corporations from the…
Haven't heard of that, so can't say (and, usually, I'm quite well-informed about Syria).
Yup. If positioned close underneath, the road bridge is going to provide kind of protection for the…
Ah my bad.... I'm from a different planet... :P
Because, this is promising better income for the US defence sector.
Yes, I do. The question is how much I feel free to babble in the public about it....
For the start: HAD the West supplied the necessary number of artillery pieces to Ukraine by now…
You summarised it (far) better than I ever could - because you know much more.
You mean: how exactly is the S-300 deployed as a ballistic missile?
Right now, I do not see why: yes, Enerhodar is 'critical' since the Russians overrun it, back on 26…
Thank you, know to appreciate trust.
....indeed, and sadly, one can gauge this by the Russians releasing UAV-taken videos shown their…
AFAIK, two Twitter-handles. Don't know anything else about them.
1.) Putin's not paying attention about the Douma: why should I (or you)?
Must find time to write about this, because it's....sigh...
One or two million of shells in stock, probably capable of manufacturing around another million a…
....and still, humans are doing so almost since the first of our predecessors grabbed some bone or…
See my earlier reports: it's about endemic political corruption in the West.
Should this mean you're thinking me some sort of a Nazi or Racist - just because I'm an Austrian…
Some call it 'War in Ukraine', others 'Ukraine War', yet others the 'Russo-Ukrainian War'....
See report for today (23 August): hope, it's explaining everything.
Yes, and Zelensky ordered the mobilisation of the 'Reserve 1' on 18 February.
Think, one has to be VERY cautious in this regards.
There is no way for me to be 'fair' to what is a corrupt-FSB-run-mafia-state.
AFAIK, a battalion of the 1st Tank was supposedly deployed somewhere in the Donbas, about a month…
Our media is paid to micro-report while ignoring backgrounds and context, and to cheer everybody…
1.a) Would be OK - if Ukraine would have enough troops, and enough heavy weapons to, say, 'pocket'…
....like all the times since Grenada of 1983, the actual problem was the illusion that one can win…
Oh, thanks for heads up on this: wasn't aware.
Of course, yes: after all, Putin would like to run his Anschluß-referendums in Kherson…
Industrial capacity is West's most minor worry: political will - which translates into: will of the…
Check the part 2, posted yesterday.
Nope. This was never necessary - and now, when the Russians are down to having a minimal capacity…
OK, now if you read my summary carefully enough, you're going to find out that the 56th in Pisky…
Yes, as others have written above, different NATO members have about 1,000 M109s (of different…
Ukraine War, Early August 2022, Part 3
That's a reasonable request - but unlikely to happen any time soon.
Thanks a lot. Think, this was one of kindest 'reviews' here so far.
I remain at the standpoint - i.e.
Oh yes, have mentioned the issue of 'looting' Belarussian stocks, 1-2 times: the destruction of…
Again: not all of Rosgvardia are 'police': they've got a full Spetsnaz division and 16 Spetsnaz…
It's 'slightly more' than a 'full time police force' - and responsible to Putin only.
Pasdaran are no 'kamikaze' (just like all of Iranians are no Kamikaze'), and no religious fanatics.
I'm not 'labelling you pessimistic': actually, can't care less if anybody is pessimistic or not…
Yes, like Ukraine, they have spent most of their 122mm ammo already.
Frankly (as always): no trace of clue.
Right now can't tell you anything that you seem not to know. The info is much too contradictory.
Dankeschön! Schau ich mir sicher an!
There are at least 6 BTGs of the Rosgvardia inside Ukraine.
Yes, no doubt: the 'mass' of Rosgvadria are 'de-facto police'.
120mm mortars are 'fine' and doing a good job - out to a range of 4,000-5,000 metres.
....and the air force was destroyed by the third day of war, and all of EU/NATO is run by LGBTs…
As mentioned and repeated - time and again - already since back in early March: Ukraine needs…
Don't understand conclusions like your first one: where did I say they can 'flood' Ukraine with…
There are enough artillery pieces 155mm around in NATO storage to send at elast 300-500 of these to…
Rosgvardia and SOBR are not the same: what you're describing sounds like OMON or SOBR.
Ukraine War, Early August 2022, Part 2
'....many more casualties than the attacker....'?
1.) Yes. They have certainly shot down lots of M31 rockets.
Yup. That much about all their 'combat experience from Syria' with which they were bragging around…
Thx. Yes, eventually, have had hardly a single day off....actually,
They've certainly intercepted enough of M31s to prompt the USA into delivering AGM-88s to Ukraine.
That will be discussed in Parts 2 and 3.
Indeed, this is one of sadest things about every single war: all the 'brains' and money wasted for…
....too short and too little, but better anything than nothing ;-)
The info on that thread is OK, but my impression is that Ukrainians went a step further in this…
Nope. Ukraine is not as strong as to go all out to the Crimea.
Ukraine War, early August 2022, Part 1
That's the problem: this has proven not to be enough - and even harder to hit thant he steel…
Thanks, very nice you're letting me know.
Because Ukraine does not have enough artillery (and even less so enough HIMARS) to keep all the…
....ah, now I should read Croat conspiracy theoreticians....?
...ah, this is online psychoanalisys, after all...?
Have re-read your commentary/question 2 times by now, and still do not understand them.
Don't know enough to say, can only gauge that he's something like 'little bit less corrupt than…
Simply tired: a lots of work already since the last year.
Well, right now, the West could deliver 300-400 artillery pieces.
The GBU-10 laser-guided bomb had a warhead of 1000kg - and this was still useless if it was…
Yes, but Ukraine would need hundreds of them, not 3-30.
It can, but Ukraine would need hundreds of them, not 3-30.
They also said Zusko was killed, then he was arrested, then he was dismissed....
As said: going to 'believe' this only once I see them in Russia.
Usual probelm: never heard of any 'Paolo Lumiere' - but have heard about massive problems with…
Yup. AFAIK, one of overpasses was hit, over a month ago - perhaps: together with the train passing…
It's like I wrote: the Russians have suffered such losses that they can't win.
....nothing of which means the Russians have stopped hauling supplies and reinforcements via the…
That's the problem: the West has much more to deliver, but is holding it back....
Hehe..... you wouldn't believe it, but run into not just one member of the Canadian Battalion that…
....oh dear... I really need a longer vacation....
So, you mean: you guess that the Russians are not using the Antonovsky Railway Bridge, because
Yes, and these 800 MSTA-S are more than enough.
Nobody is talking about precision guided artillery ammo being used for fun.
Sorry, not making any kind of predictions.
No, he's not lying. Just having no idea about what is he talking about.
....yes, of course.... :rolleyes:
For the start, in order to reconcille the two things you've asked about, I would need to know: what…
Please, be so kind, show me: where do I say anything like 'if the artillery problem isn't solved…
....and people are surprised how comes US-Americans elect characters like Trump for president...
....if that's the most important thing....
People who fight in Vysokopillya say all the stories about 'encirclement' are fake news.
....yup: exactly like for the last two weeks.
I was considering adding this to my 'Q & A Session', but then stopped because this grew quite big...
Artillery - no armour - is, traditionally, the actual centrepiece of the Russian military power.
Currently, nope: not realistic.
Putin buying Iranian drones.... sorry, I'm not 'buying' this until I see any of these in Russia.
Ukraine War: Q & A, 24 July 2022
....of course not: pure science fiction.... :rolleyes:
AFAIK, Ukrainians have recovered Dibrovne, meanwhile.
Then go and negotiate with Putin.
Thx for your trust - and that's a promise.
Actually, it was just a battalion of the 93rd, and nope: it was not alone. Never said it was.
Of course they do - and all the time.
Yes. Not only out of the centre, but completely out of the village.
OK, lets say, it's truth two military officers were killed there.
Again: I understand all the repercussions.
....told you to be patient and not to succumb to panic....
OK, now, before I have a look: what's the purpose of that link?
I'm still not 1000% sure if Dvornikov has been dismissed/replaced, or if people are just…
Not sure if you're going to like how am I going to answer this question, but let me try.
This might sound perfectly logical - especially from the military point of view.
13 tanks per company? That's new to me. Thanks!
Oh, I'm 'extremely sorry' if you're feeling uneasy when I get mad about INCOMPETENT RUSSIAN…
Nope. Turned out they're neither in Bilohorivka, nor in Soledar and even less so in Siversk.
Yes, but Wagner appeared relatively 'late' in this war. Don't recall its operations before May.
Aha, here we have a probelm.... 'knowledge'.
Yes, that's the sad truth (when you drive)....
The Russians have already demolished most of Ukrainian refineries, plenty of high-power network…
Characters like him never read anything - but things they're 100% sure they want to hear.
I understand all the repercussions - and very well at that.
From the US point of view - yes.
I'm not forcing you to read - neither the blog here, nor any of my books: internet is big and wide…
Re. Kharkiv: 'usual' shelling, yesterday and today. It just seems that nobody got killed.
Need some rest, meanwhile: don't recall having a single day off since 31 December 2021.
There is as much disinformation and propaganda spread.....by
Aha. So, I '_risk_ reputational damage' - if I apply the same principles upon every conflict I…
Believe it or not, I understand that. Still, one has to be cautious: this is war, no game.
Yeah, I 'hate' and whatever else....
Ah, 'operational control'.... now I understand.
Think, you're not going to find me explaining 'everything the Russians say is a lie'.
Ever since the times of the Secessionist War in the USA, there's something called 'offensive…
Check the illustration I've posted: it's explaining everything about artillery range.
Nothing more but what I've mentioned.
Is the usual story in their war-mythology - at least since Syria of 29 September 2015.
Thank you! Couldn't find that one, no matter what I tried!
Mate, this is all perfectly logical - so much so, that the mass of NATO would never come to such…
Sorry, couldn't follow the last few hours. What happened there?
Perhaps, perhaps not. I've got no crystal ball, so can't say.
AFAIK, they have taken Kurulka, already yesterday.
Of course, Russia is doing that, too - like it's trying to do the same with the West.
Depends on the type they purchase.
Oh, no doubt: they're firing them like there's no tomorrow.
....to Kyselivka, or not to Kyselivka, that is the question....;-)
Thank you for your message, Rasim.
In every country, no matter which, armed forces are responsible to 'protect higher national…
Erm.... what or where is 'Kurulka'?
For me, it's simple: sources say Ukrainians are 'there', and holding out, and thus this is a fact…
That's the sad reality of the country where I'm living, where half the people are as…
They did, then they lost most of Chornobaivka, again.
It really depends on local commanders and their experiences and preferences.
This is simply what my sources say.
Gauging by reports based on checking positions of Russian GSM-users - yes.
....BTW, why do all the names of big rivers in Ukraine start with D....?
Indeed, yes: thanks. I'll correct!
Ukraine War, 1, 2, 3 and 4 July, 2022
Yup, thanks: is a well-known post.
Found it: the source meant the Pidyomnyy Bridge.
Yes, and it's the VDV that's there: they're fighting hard.
No idea. But even Turks are complaining about 'Russian mines'.
The so-called 'Transnistria' is Russian-controlled, but, at least officially, a part of Moldova.
South of Lysychansk - both the troops and the fighting.
The few that do know, do not care. The rest does not know - and 'needs not knowing'.
Just that that 'road-repairing vehicles factory' - was the shopping mall.
I think I nowhere said it was intentional.
Nope. Some of Ukrainian politicians and some of the media is doing as this would've been '1st…
30+ battalions (3-5 battalions make a brigade).
Thanks, and yes: that Cherkasy Bridge is meanwhile a 'classic example for precision (read: none) of…
BTW, it turned out to be a Tu-143.
1.) Main goal is to keep Kharkiv within artillery range.
Sorry to disapoint you, but: gauging how many US and allied military personnel, how many Israelis…
Mars-2000? OK, that would make sense. Thanks a lot, Helga!
I'm sure there is no 'escape'.
Ukraine War, 25, 26, 27 and 28 June 2022
I do not know why do you wonder, mate: private military companies are officially prohibited - by…
AFAIK, an average Wagner BTG is like one of 'liwa' (so-called 'brigade') of the Syrian War.
Well, because a war between Russia and NATO would result in quick Russian defeat, which in turn is…
....yup. Essentially: what's going on in Ukraine for 8 years by now.
Erm... USN CVBG in the Black Sea...?
Re. 3: mind that the incompetent politicians are brought to their positions by oligarchy - which is…
They have nothing that's precise enough to target a bridge.
Yup, quite similar, no matter where.
Erm, they say I am - and the list by my supposed employers is very long, too.
Back in the 1970s, India was offered a full squadron of (original/vanilla) Tu-22s, too.
Supplement: Of Backfires and Kitchens
It's a sizeable concentration for the RFA of these days.
Thx. Just mis-memorised Utkin's first name.
Some excellent questions here.
1.) They reached the south-eastern outskirts of Lysychansk, 3-4 days ago, then southern, yesterday.
Not only one, but all of major ammo depots in Belarus: they're that short on ammo.
.....or to the last Russian....
Good questions, but sorry: no insights.
The armed forces of Belarus are not in condition to get involved.
thx, but sorry: cannot open it and thus cannot read it
....IF they come down anywhere near their targets...
'Arguing in soundbites for the mere sake of arguing' - yes, that's the best description for anybody…
Hm... I'll (respectfully) disagree with several points here.
Sorry, but can't take anybody for serious - who's talking about my 'predictions'.
If provided with enough ammunition - yes, no doubt.
Probably something like 'we can still hit western Ukraine' -type of message from Putin.
Ah, the Kyiv National Aviation Museum? Oh dear: what a shame... sorry for that!
Browsing the social media for related reports, 1-2 hours a day.
The way things look like as of this afternoon, 111th TD and Foreign Legion withdrew from the Azot…
Sorry, I never said 'it's not important': I'm trying to find out - and to explain - how do the…
Just posted what I know about it.
Sry, can't open and see that video.
All you need to do to prove me wrong is provide evidence the RFA didn't suffer as heavy losses as…
Supplement: Russian Missile Strike, 25 June 2022
AFAIK, they haven't been used - yet.
The RFA was definitely in urgent need of replacements for all the stuff blown up by the ZSU over…
Yup, thanks: is explaining a lot....
Firstly, they would have to capture two.
Oh dear... sorry to hear that. Must check what is Substack (or other options).
Not sure if that wasn't taken at Grafewöhr (during training in Germany)
more like 600-700 KIA & WIA in total
It does look like somebody there is of the opinion that with the Separatists and Russians arrayed…
Indeed, that would be 'funny': the last time, it cost the Russians two complete BTGs....
Yup. Not even paying attention about that any more: when one contacts 'triggerpullers' …
Theoretically: a lot. 30 battalions is a lots of troops and lots of firepower.
Not following the media-reports, so was caught by quite some surprise when several people drew my…
Thx for help. Couldn't explain that better.
That's the point: that _is_ 55-60% of RFA's BTGs, BUT, most are down to 4-6 APCs, 2-4 MBTs, and 2-3…
Well, right now, they're 'keeping that road closed' - by artillery.
Yes, that's what I've heard too.
Then check the map, please: how should Bakhmut be related to Zolote and HIrske?
They're trying to do so already since the breakthrough at Popasna, some 5-6 weeks ago.
Re-load the article, please: have added this few minutes after posting the original.
I've precisely mentioned the source.
Thx. Any official source for this?
Nope. You're mixing several things here.
AFAIK, Ukrainians are already out of Hirske.
Thanks a lot, Boris: details of this kind are always much appreciated - and helping a lot!
1.) By accident, the original manuscript for today's report included quite some 'analysis'…
I've been told Vekhnokamianka: I know about the one you've pointed at, but it is burning since more…
By side that this appears to me to belong into the 'could be, would be, should be' discipline, for…
At least one thing is sure: if I've got something wrong, I'll correct myself too.
I can't have and thus have no idea why is somebody else reporting what he/she does.
Konashenkov definitely loves to play video-games. ;-)
If you mean the T-72Bs: turned out photos were taken by somebody selling them via AP, in late April.
Yes, I do, and no, they failed. Moving all their forces over to Severodonetsk, the last two days.
Sorry, do not understand your question.
Indeed: 'Eastern Front'- coiuld by 'anywhere' from Kursk to Vuhledar....
Oh, thanks a lot: nice to hear being as appreciated!
Mate, I'm so busy with my 'job' and just following developments in Ukraine: by best will, no time…
Adding all the details I can find: if no place and date are mentioned - then I simply do not know.
Ah, now you're 'speaking Tomsky'....
Army General Dvornikov - C-in-C OSK South is now Deputy Defence Minister of the Russian Federation?
My pleasure, and sorry to hear about your problems.
Yesno, have some data, but usually trying to avoid entering such discussions.
Thanks a lot: seems, I've mixed up mere two attacks and misunderstood them as 4-5 different attacks.
Thx. Have already 2-3 volunteers. Much appreciated!
These are excellent questions: indeed, they might prove to be of fundamental importance (as for…
Thanks a lot, Kornei: much appreciated!
That's a great 'bit' of info: thanks a lot!
My pleasure. And yes: at the end of the last summary (15-16 June).
Because there was a video shown ammo crates inside - and this was then quickly removed.
Partially - yes. At least strikes by Caesar howitzers are that way.
Ukraine War, 17, 18, 19 June 2022
Kh-22 is carrying a warhead of 1,000kg. the blast is lethal within a radius of about 300 metres.
Nope. I do not expect any such operation until Ukraine has at least something like control of the…
....to quote certain US bestselling author: the sky over the battlefield does not belong to anybody…
That's a 'hint' I do not agree with.
...why just half of Ukraine, Lorenzo?
Then, please reply on FB or via Messenger....
Supplement: Spray & Pray, How it Works
....in a nutshell, he's another of experts with a crystal ball. ;-)
Sorry, did I miss something or was this 17 June some special date?
These were two Kh-22 missiles, and the blast was indeed big.
Aha! Thanks a lot, that's making sense!
This is the 'average rate of Ukrainian KIA per day for the last few weeks'.
You're entitled to your opinion (and I'm ready to defend your right to have your own opinion, too).
All of that is a normal part of something called 'pluralism' - which usually results in political…
Thx: have updated that part of the report — and enhanced it with photos (and some commentary).
I've heard of 'school' being hit, but do you know exactly what school?
Think it was Zelensky in one of his interviews early this month, who said something like '100…
I'm going to explain this to some detail in the coming days (have a corresponding manuscript…
...but you can't understand the Battle for Donbass if Adrien is not explaining the backgrounds.
Mate, sorry: gave up following the HNA's reviews, weeks ago (HNA stands for Heeresnachrichtenamt…
To clarify something: for me, every single loss of human life in this war is a tragedy.
How many wheels are there on a train, Lorenzo?
Check my reports, please: if I've said they did, then they did.
1.) No. As described in my articles: they've attacked from the west.
Thanks for your trust, Daniela.
Was a common situation already with the (same) Soviet (nowadays Russian) ammo already in Iran-Iraq…
The VKS is operating over the frontlines with attack helicopters and Su-25s only.
Fine with me. He's got his assessments, I've got mine.
Sorry, got no bugs in the HQ South OSK, and thus don't know.
It looks like Putin, Dvornikov & Co KG GesmbH AG are simply happy the Ukrainians are as cautious…
Not one of Russian CAAs is 'completely in Ukraine' - simply becuase none was complete even before…
That came up after I wrote my report, and I would like to see some kind of evidence, too.
Check the map: the direction from which they're trying to reach Sloviansk is dominated by terrain…
My pleasure....erm... 'Test'. ;-)
Oh, thank s alot Boris: gotta add this 'detail'!
For me, it's 'simple deduction'.
Re. news about RFA units about to join the battle...
'Sure' - is relative. Mazanivka is small, and it seems, Ukrainians are still in the southern side.
Apparently - yes: it should be shallow enough to cross at least by BMPs and BTRs.
Well, sorry, but can't agree with that map.
Yes, sorry: my mistake. 81st Airborne Assault.
Heavy artillery, and yet more heavy artillery.
.....and here you're back to asking for predictions: how often should I reply I'm not making any?
I could, but I'm not going to do so: as mentioned aready several times, I'm not going to discuss…
Lukashenko's 'army' is simply not in a state to fight a war - and it can see what's going on in…
....could be, would be, should be.... sorry, that's not my department.
Can only agree with what you wrote here.
Heaven... Lroenzo: the boss of the German BND almost got caught by the Spetsnaz in Kyiv, on the…
If you check my last report, you can find the story.
Ah that... well, not sure if they count Kh-22s and Kh-59s as 'winged missiles'.
That's truth - at least from time to time.
Is OK. Let the people predict future as much as they like. Sorry, I'm not in that business.
Mate, I'm not 'pesimistic' since Ukrainians bushwacked that Russian attack on Voznesensk…
The strike on the football stadium was a strike on the Wagner base.
Oh dear.... I did something to myself by attracting so much attention.... :P
Sorry, not following more than 'most important' of GenStab-U's releases.
Thx, yes. Komyshuvakha is a 'topic': Russians claim 'completely' and are celebrating, Ukrainians…
AFAIK, M110 has a calibre of 203mm.
'High-precision' - for the Keystone Cops in Moscow....
Ukraine War, 8, 9, 10 June 2022
Experience and proven reliability.
Like in the case when the Russians hit something in Ukraine, the Ukrainian authorities do as if…
Kropyva: Ukrainian Artillery Application
Western nations — perhaps not.
'Control by artillery fire' is where the Russians were about 10 days ago...
Oh, there are ways for Tu-22s to deploy such weapons from safe distance.
....if so: 'even better'. Is just increasing Russian problems.
Yesno. I'm trying to explain - without going into too many details I consider 'too sensitive' …
Yes sure, he's going to continue sending troops without an end: that's why it's so important to…
Not really: some elements of the 29th were assigned to the 35th and 36th CAAs, back then.
Seriously now: in my 'quick and dirty' style, whoever could - both the defence sector…
Indeed, there are lots of illusions and conspiracy theories in both Putin's and Lukashenko's minds…
Trying to find out. Hope to have this cleared by the time of the next summary.
Thanks for update on Kharkiv, and yes, seems, they've overrun Tatyanovka, the last night or this…
Yes. Must admit: the mass of available maps is confusing in this regards, and I do not have any…
M777 is, like the mass of all of NATO's post-mid-1970s artillery, based on designs by Gerald Bull.
Ukrainian problems are no 'troops', not even 'numbers of troops and units': their problems are…
Nope - plus there are too few of them around.
That's what I mean when I say that the Ukrainian artillery is still preoccuppied with countering…
Since you are so 1000% sure of the outcome, why even following latest developments?
As mentioned in the article: they can reach them now: NATO-supplied howitzers calibre 155mm have a…
I see. And: how do you know Ukraine has no more troops left?
Nothing. Serves the purpose of preventing Ukraine from re-deploying yet more forces to the Donbass…
....there's a regiment of two battalions of Belarussians fighting for Ukrainie against Russia, for…
You see? This is a typical question from you.
A)....like launching a major offensive somewhere into the depth of Russian position without…
Essentially, whoever could - both the defence sector (corporations, PMCs, think-tanks) and the NGOs…
....when I was younger, I wouldn't care about safety.
I've offered a 'quick explanation', but you were not happy with it. ;-)
No time to check what links are still working, but to understand what do I mean, start reading…
Erm... I think you're missing few important points.
As good as the 'average RFA' - which means: good enough to cause serious probelm to the Ukrainian…
Malik, there are people with far more (really: FAR MORE) expertise - and the necessary patience …
The mass of Europenan governments simply can't - or doesn't dare - speaking truth.
'Full revelation', Philipp: I'm not even trying to understand the intricacies of the Ukrainian…
Problem with 'politics' is that no matter how good can one be at avoiding it, the politics is never…
I'm perfectly fine with your commentary, (constructive) critique and different opinions.
Could be. I would still recommend a closer study of political corruption in countries like Austria…
Thank you, very mindful commentary.
Long responses are appreciated: even if we two might never agree over several things (on…
....fromo my POV, that would require me checkin the situation in Bhutan, first and foremost. ;-)
Not following the US media at all, actually.
Is OK. I'm just not going to lie for the sake of appearing better.
Yup: it was all over already on the morning of 24 February....
Is OK. Not expecting anybody to 'like' this: have to explain the 'politics' and 'diplomacy' before…
Just like the first five. 8 years too late.
'The EU is currently preocuppied with combating inflation' - caused by overspending of its…
Well, tell your wife that the 2nd Russian offensive is about to reach its culminating point, but…
Yup. They're definitely concentrating for 'one, last big push' on Siversky and Bakhmut from the…
There was certainly an attack: it just didn't get too far.
Sorry man: but with statements of this kind....
Where the date is not mentioned: that happened on 1 June.
Up front: NEVER take any politicians by his word (let the media insist on doing such nonsense).
Sorry to hear about your loss.
Yes, thanks. Found it, thanks to gents who reacted promptly.
Mind that shells have a lethal radious of 10-15 metres against tanks, and much more against any…
Part is OPSEC, part is the Turkish reluctance on providing more, especially more ammo for them.
Ukraine War, 30-31 May & 1 June 2022
Please, try to think on your own: all the estimates say it would take Russians about 1 million of…
Sorry, I do not know: by best will, lacking time to track that too.
Yup, thx: have seen such reports. Ukrainians claim something similar for the Russians...
Thx a lot for your trust - much appreciated from sombody with such experience in tracking so many…
Well, seems, most of the MBTs in question were knocked out by Ukrainians.
AFAIK, no such strikes were flown.
AFAIK, nope, no heavy losses in Severodonetsk.
Sry, no idea. Waiting for info.
Hard to gauge about the situation in Severodonetsk right now: too little info came in today.
Well, the last few days, there's an exchange of statements and threats on the diplomatic level…
'Sorry': occassionally I make a 'mistake', and report something I've been informed about - but…
Then we need laws obliging all the politicians to wear overalls like F1-drivers do: wearing titles…
So, found something for you that's available online:
Thank you very much, David: 'reactions' like you remain the best advertising for contraception.
Can't explain it any better, beccause it's as simple as a wheel: it works, but nobody can explain…
The number of sorties per day should be down to about 200-250.
Indeed. In the Kherson area, for exmaple, they are already constructing the third line of defences..
Yes: pay better attention about whom are you electing into what position.
Problem is that no Leo 2s arrived to replace T-72s... and none are in sight....
Oligarchy and its politics is disgusting everywhere, not 'only' in 'Old Europe'.
....this is not from the ORF-correspondent in Ukraine, Christian Wehrschütz - who is 'so…
I'm talking about 'in operation', which would mean: 'at the frontline and in action'.
I'm talking about 'in operation', which would mean: 'at the frontline and in action'.
That's the point: oligarchy and politics are living in their own world, ordinary people in their…
That's the point: whether the nav/attack system has such a capability is, actually, unimportant…
I should've added 'Warsaw', obviously
'Morale' is imporrtant, but I would say: in this war, there's so much fanaticism, on both sides…
Lets say it this way: 'yes, that's the essence'.
Differences between toss/loft bombing and what the two air forces e doing with unguided rockets are…
From my POV, it's relatively simple: tactics is one thing, losses another.
Lorenzo: in what way are all your posts related to the topic on hand....?
Lorenzo: in what way are all your posts related to the topic on hand....?
Lorenzo: in what way are all your posts related to the topic on hand....?
Of course that same mistakes are strongly influencing toss/loft bombing, too.
Nope. Have got only a few excerpt from it, and that cost me some.
Re-read this feature, please: eventually, I couldn't care less whatever the two GenStabs say.
Re. Russians: I do not expect them to improve anything at all.
Perfectly possible. Just: evidence?
Supplement: Failure of Air Power, 28 May 2022
Aha, another whataboutist. Your kind never stops amusing me. :D
I see this war (between others) as something like 'uprising against oligarchy': Russian, Ukrainian…
Yup. Somebody was wildly overoptimistic, back in late April.
Sorry, but you seem to have as much 'understanding' for what is the IRGC/Hezbollah-conglomerate…
Oh dear... do we have to waste yet more time with this...
Only a few M777s and Ceasars (the latter with the 55th Artillery Brigade) were deployed in combat…
Yawn... Nobody forced Israel to run aggressive wars against its nneighbours: it could've made peace…
To understand all the 'whys, hows, and whens', that would take some.
Well, not sure if they've secured the entire town by now, but yes: they took the train station…
Yup, that's making lots of sense. Thx!
I'm lacking time to search for all the links, but cannot than recommend you a (far) more careful…
Thx. The only problem is that the Russians are nowhere near 10-15km away from Bakhmut.
150th...? Thanks. Couldn't find it in resolution large enough to read. I'll correct this.
That's the problem. As historian I recall also:
Hm.... the T-62M needs a loader, i.e.
Either you're coming with this question again, or somebody else has already asked it - and I've…
What do I think about that? Nothing.
Mind that nobody can be 'everywhere at the same time': not seeing Terminators at one section of the…
Don't worry: I do not intend to go into predicting future.
Indeed: deeds count more than anything else.
I think that people like you should understand 'such videos' in an entirely different light:
Yup; thx: saw at least four segments of that video yesterday.
I think it's a cummulative effect of multiple factors.
I might not always react and reply, but I read everything.
Because there are so many videos, people in question are simply missing them.
Yup, was a typo, and is corrected.
Yes, I know what they claim. For me, it's 'contested until proven otherwise'.
100+ KIA/WIA/MIA - a day (i.e. the loss rate mentioned by Zelensky a few days ago).
....and then about 1,5° out of 360° the people in question actually see....
Not sure if Ukrainians are in agreement with such announcements/predicitions.
Oh dear.... then the situation is even worse than I thought.
Aha, so what is documented here regarding Azov is Russian propaganda?
Can you quote me stating that?
There are two full brigades holding Bakhmut: everybody knows this (and if the Russians do not, they…
Well, you're by now one of 2-3 people who offered anything like constructive critique in this…
....and where did I write anything else?
Yup: apparently, plenty of people here cannot imagine there are parts of Ukraine predominantly…
Who said they said that - i.e. where did I write anything similar?
That's the only thing definitely making sense to me.
....unless one of those intercepted would fall atop of you - it's likely to appear that way, yes.
There's no evidence they shot down anything at all.
Think I found four Bilohorivkas in all of Ukraine...
Oh dear.... the Ukrainian geography and local names in (at least) three different languages....
Oh, thanks, glad to hear that - and greetings to Kazakhstan.
Just quoted four different sources, (almost) word by word.
I've been told exactly what you've marked by four sources, independently from each other - and do…
Just to be sure: Major-General Kanamat H. Botashev - of the VKS?
Well, cannot but describe that as nonsense.
Nominally at least, systems like Pantsyr can intercept them.
Ukraine War, 21, 22, 23 May 2022
Yup, saw it. Is good news, no doubt. Doubt it was alone, though.
Well, if I'm to ask, every single Russian UAV over the Ukrainian positions is 1 UAV too much.
Should the Russians capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, and then want to advance further west…
Yes, and Kupyansk is also the HQ of two Russian tactical armies.
No idea. There was one successful operation of that kind, in the Kupyansk area, over a month ago.
Yes, it's a conclusion based on several comments 'from the battlefield'.
The Russians haven't captured Vrubivka yet.
Yes, sorry: one of several typos I'm still trying to 'mop up'.
Yes, Vovchansk. I'll correct this.
Kupyansk is 'just a station' on the way to Izium.
Well, if one is Putin, and hoping the West to get fed up of this war then yes: if he captures the…
About the only good news today.
Mind: the RFA first drove into the centre of Sumy.
There are no 'delays': depending on the system in question (and self-propelled howitzers take…
Initial idea was something along the line: VDV + Spetsnaz + Rosgvardia = overrun the enemy…
The problem with trading territory is that giving up (what is left of) the LOC means giving up all…
This is my own semi-joke, quickly summarising continuously decreasing Putin's plot to 'win' this…
I've got my own sources for this, but there are Twitter-reports in this regards, meanwhile, too.
....just that these pesky 30mm autocanons are far more effective in countering Ukrainian ATGM-teams…
It's right that the last 2-3 BTGs that were still in Mariupol are moving to the frontline, but I…
The RFA might try to get to Barvinkove, but I do not see it even managing to capture that place.
Aha, so this was linked to that missile strike on Dnipro. Thanks!
Misdeclaring Maidan into 'conspiracy by foreign intelligence services' - is equal to doing the same…
Yup, has learned a lot from his pal in Moscow....
Let me remind you that I'm living in a country that is widely considered as 'most politically…
Indeed, I've been warned - several times already - that 'they' are following my reviews.
Oh, thanks a lot, Vytautas: glad to hear you like all the books as much!
Yup, is not good, because now the situation in the Popasna area is a major crisis.
Advantage for the RFA - because of much more powerful artillery.
Sry, I'm never making any kind of predictions.
Wait and see: it might not be easy, but one has to be patient in such cases.
For once, they might have sent some Su-34s deeper into the Ukrainian airspace.
Am I biased in favour of Ukrainians? Oh, but sure.
When in doubt: ask me. Don't jump to conclusions. I welcome open questions.
As explained above, I have heard the same, earlier during the war.
I have heard the same from 2-3 own sources, early during the war, but not heard from any of them…
That's a very interesting question, Sundra!
The Russian planning is collapsing like a house of cards since the morning of 25 February.
As somebody with intricate knowledge of develpments in Syria at least since around the year 2000…
Indeed, I'm leaning towards your conclusions: problem was that, at the time of writing my stuff…
My impression might be wrong, no doubt, but have seen 'at least a dozen' of 'negative' reactions to…
Ukraine War, 16 and 17 May 2022
Any kind of success, no matter where, and especially anything that might force Kyiv into…
Yes, but first such recommendations were issued already back in 2016, three years 'even' before the…
Sorry, was in a rush to complete that report and thus 'cut it short' at that point.
Is done - all the time, already since late February (if not since earlier).
Currently - yes, and especially over Russia.
Gauging by released videos, a large part of Ukrainian Army is undergoing training on heavy armament…
Thanks a lot for explaining this: saw some reports, but found them 'unconvincing': you explained…
Dictatorship is the worst that can happen to any people.
Nonsense. Nowhere did I say I expect anything of that kind.
I think it's on time to explain the following: I'm EXTREMELY critical of all the…
Thanks for the tip: I'll do my best to check (though, must 'warn': my knowledge of Italian is…
Sorry to hear that, Dmitry: hope, they can be held up and you and your dearest will be safe.
Ukraine War, 14 and 15 May 2022
Good idea. I'll check with Helion and let you all know.
Sorry, never heard of 'Black Earth Rising'. What's that?
I'm convinced everybody can do it. It does take time and a dose of work.
I think that the politicians are - generally, no matter where - so scared of 'the people' and 'the…
It was only yesterday I've heard of him for the first time - and then by sheer accident (probably…
I think, Ondra, people like you simply do not know me well-enough.
Eyes in the sky can't be everywhere at the same time.
Rallying calls are all nice and fine, but we're living in the 21st Century, and some goverments…
Indeed: it sounds like somebody at the South OSK was sure the troops could complete the mission by…
8 crossing points.... well, that's explaining a lot! Thx!
Yes of course that's possible.
Sounds perfectly plausible to me.
Yup. So much so, I'm all the time hoping my info is just damn wrong....
Indeed. And, it's an even better crossing site than near Bilohorivka, because the Ukrainians have…
Thx for your patience with me.
Thanks for your patience with me.
OK, to make one thing crystal clear: I DO NOT expect local commanders (battalion/regiment/brigade)…
Yes, it is receiving such howitzers. I.e. about 70 out of 90+ from the USA are in Ukraine now.
Oh yes, according to the Keystone Cops - already two months ago.... :P
Yup. The mass of units in the east is now in intensive combat for almost three months....
....and Olexandrivka... there must be one every 20-25km... ;-)
If I add 'system' behind it, then it's MANPAD ;-)
That's the next point: the entire think-tank (ISW) is serving very specific interests & purposes of…
About a week ago, they were up to 94 BTGs. with about 20 undergoing R&R in the Belgorod area.
Yes, to paraphrase certain former US president: 'it's the artillery, stupid'.
Thx, yes, I know: National Guard is 'just one' of several branches of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Nope. But, it can go on attacking and attacking and attacking....
....this war has an element of 'whackamole'...
Ukraine War, 10, 11, 12 May 2022
Supplement: the Press and Putin’s Turbo-Military Operation
AFAIK, there are about 20 Novoselivkas in Ukraine.
They'll keep on coming - as long as there are pontoon bridges to find in Russia.
AFAIK (and yes, I know: this is contrary to quite a few reports): there are no Switchblades in…
I can find Finland and Sweden on any map, and know the basics about their armed forces, but know…
If this would be an advance somewhere else: yes, no doubt.
Indeed. Nowadays, one could say that the RFA is going to 'fight to its last pontoon bridge' - and…
I meant that this link is already included there.
I'm not into predictions, thus sorry. I'll ignore the qustion about what do I foresee.
He should have reported about this on 7 May. Five days is too long in this war.
Oh dear....they were too late, or hit that bridgehead too little after all....
Please, check the links in my 'Point No.1'
Sorry, that link is not working (not even when I add dots).
Saw this in the morning, actually.
Nope. Though, that 'expanding blue circle' is simply the area where guerrilla is active.
Thx. Sadly, can't open that Tweet.
Thx. There were certainly more than 2 - not all in the relatively narrow area in question.
Looks like few volleys of BM-27 or even BM-30....
OK, this is making me feel slightly better.
I think it's not only Kharkiv: while the Ukrainian GenStab was announcing a new attack on Kriviy…
Yes indeed: while writing this, this morning, it came to my mind that I might have mentioned one…
As explained already back in early March, and few times ever since: for Ukraine to prevail in this…
'Allowing' the Russian armed forces to create a bridgehead is an invitation for a disaster.
I'm never making predicions, because it's pointless.
Well, sorry: I'm not into writing novels. Indeed, I'm an awful 'story-teller'.
I'm not, and I do not understand why do you ask: I never said I am.
The way things look like right now, it seems they're on the best way of 'closing that pocket'…
You're asking for a 'what if'?
Haha! Thx! That happens when I'm in a big rush. :P
Thx. Was 'just the first- and then the 'decoy' bridge.
Because nobody - no Ukraine, no Russia: really nobody - can hold the entire frontline occupied with…
Yup. Sooner or later, all of Putin's favourites must get shot away - alone because they're…
Question: how many Egyptian ponton bridges has the Israeli air force destroyed during the October…
This entire war is Putin's remake of The Red Storm Rising (have pointed that out already back in…
Thank you for trust, but please keep in mind: I'm neither infailable, nor perfect.
NP, just clarifying to avoid any kind of misunderstandings.
Thanks for your trust, Daniela.
Thousands of non-US, non-British, non-Canadian volunteers are serving in Ukraine.
Good idea. Makes me curious if they might really issue such a call.
I'm sceptical about everthing and critical of everything.
Well, I do not understand you thinking I'm 'fixated' on Azov.
Oh, I’m not talking about ‘betrayal’.
Indeed: that with 'morale' is beyond relevance here.
Think it's so that oth sides are reaching the breaking point.
I'm far from being a perfect person, but in my job: I'm never compensating.
Hand on heart, nobody has the ‘right to make any claims’.
Nothing of that kind would’ve happened.
Watch the video and do a calculation: at ths speed, the bomb is going to fall at around 50-60…
Whatever the wingman was aiming at, his aircraft nearly got shot down by the explosion of one of…
Problem with deliveries of new stuff would be the rush to get these into service: they would…
I simply doubt the wingman was in a position to 'carefully aim' when releasing his bombs: his jet…
I simply doubt the wingman was in a position to 'carefully aim' when releasing his bombs: his jet…
I simply doubt the wingman was in a position to 'carefully aim' when releasing his bombs: the jet…
Supplement: How NOT to fly a Low-Altitude air-to-ground Attack
Didn't take it as critique, but simply reminded about a matter of fact.
The problem with 'sending more' is called 'supplies & training'.
1.) What I know is included in the summary.
Of course there is, and no doubt, there are efforts to do so.
If I'm to ask, it's more likely she was sent there to provide air defence for the garrison: - which…
Yes, but haven't seen them going this deep over the Black Sea - for weeks (if not months).
Supplement: Second Warship of the Russian Navy hit by Neptunes?
It is not enough for an 'all-out' offensive. But enough to
Thanks to you and other readers here for your trust.
The point about wars is to 'unload' as many 'high explosives' upon the enemy as possible, and that…
Sorry, have no idea whom do you mean, so can't say who is bad or good.
Mate, if anybody thinks every Western government is 'perfectly honest/open' in regards of what is…
Think that's going to be the best solution.
Nope. That is: sure, Putin is (mis)using the Azov for his backgrounds, no doubt - just like many in…
Yup, this is the way I see it, too.
Hm... how should I explain this.... I do not see it that way, and do not know anybody who does.
There is such a chaos in the Russian lines between Kharkiv and Severodonetsk, that I have no idea…
Thx. Any idea when was that map originally published?
Yup, thanks: heard similar from another person there today.
Think I misunderstood something. Should read Ozerne. I'll correct.
Any idea about the date of its publishing?
That's the point: I'm not angry at anybody at all. Why should I be?
The first sequence of the video is actually shown a strike on BM-27 launcher.
Two things regarding 'trolling':
Very few, Michael: very, very few.
Yup, thanks for explaining this.
One cannot reliably knock out a railway line by sporadic cruise missile strikes.
Sadly, it took them very long to find that faith…
Aha! So, only the railway bridge was destroyed?
Yes, they’re going to deliver them (or have already done so).
I know none that is left intact.
They can report whatever they like, but: if nobody is participating, there’s no referendum — and…
The chain of command is much more complex than that, and including the FSB, GRU, and Rosgvardia…
Aha. Now that's changing a lot. Thanks!
Me thinks, the situation is fundamentally different now than it was in 2014: foremost, the…
If they realyl began using M142s and M270 in combat, as they apparently did, then such weapons…
NP. Here are my replies to your original questions:
Yup, I think I've heard such a figure, too (1,900 ballistic missiles).
The UN might have theoretical authority, but simply has no say, nor power to 'go in and pick up the…
Oh, they did, about a week ago.
Don't know what to tell you, because the few things I do know (say, number of troops, equipment etc.
Don't know what to think about this.
There were several vidoes shown them arriving per train, and then deployed in the field, but I…
Thanks. The Trudoliubivka in question is west of Zaporozhye, though.
Yes, I know. I just do not trust the Russians have used the system in question in Mariupol.
1.) That's discussed quite a lot in the social media.
Yup. Essentially, the RFA emptied the Luhansk and Donbas of all the men - able-bodied or not.
RFA offensive: nope, they're going to keep on pushing for days longer.
I, definitely, do not sympathise with their leaders.
Supplement on Rare Species: RFA’s JFAC
Simply lacking time to draw maps. I've got my job and life, too.
If you do not like what I write, or find I'm wrong: fine with me.
More like Chechnya of 1995.... Thx!
Sometimes I do not understand official releases either: can't find 'the' Trudoliubivka in question…
Very interesting read, thanks a lot.
Italy announced its decision to send Panzerhaubitze-2000 few days ago.
I couldn't find any better description of this geographic designation than 'near Orikhiv - on the…
Ammo for Oerlikons shouldn't be a probelm: there is enough of it outside of Switzerland.
In this regards, in the case of Russia, it's like Assadists in Syria, or in lottery: everything is…
Yup, there are all sorts of reports and a lots of guessing. Right now, too many things are unclear.
Putin never had any kind of political program.
Well, they have plentiful of oil and POL-supplies.
Supplement: Strikes on POL- and Transporation Facilities — in Russia, and in Ukraine, 25 April 2022
Nope, I do not think the Russians can get as far.
OK, noted. Col Ivan Grishin, CO 49 ADB.
Yup. There was never a word in this regards.
it's not particularly effective (even if Russian, every single Kalibr goes at something like 1…
Ah, I see. Thanks: I'll correct this!
Evenh with a full Russian mobilisation: what can Putin do?
Nope. Reports are clear about 'death of the commander of the 49th CAA' - not of the 49th Air…
The second photo you've liked was Rezantsev, the original CO 49th CAA. He was KIA back in March.
The way I see this war, theres only one aggressor - Russia - and only one way to stop that…
1. Yes, it means what you've figured out.
Have heard such rumours, but found nothing really supporting them.
They're trying to do so via the wider area, by advancing on Slovyansk and Kramatorks via Kremina to…
From memory, few days ago the Pentagon was complaining about that jamming.
Nope, you're not exaggerating. It would really be a 'game changer'.
Thanks a lot - and please enjoy your readings!
Lets say it this way: there were rumours in this regards in the media, so I checked with a source…
For the start, can't but thank your granddad for liberating Vienna from the Nazis.
That with GPS-guided ammo is a two-edged sword: mind that the Russians are jamming the GPS-signals…
Yup, tragically, such accidents do happen: there are no wonder-weapons, and US arms are not safe…
Ahem.... 'mercenaries' - there are none in Ukraine.
Is a longer story, and a sort of 'insider joke' (even if I'm no insidier there) - related to the…
Thank you; very nice to be that much appreciated.
Nobody is 'banning Russia from existence': it's banning itself into a complete isolation from…
The RT and Sputnik are no 'news agencies', but propaganda outlets spreading Putin's nonsense.
1.) The 92nd Mech is slightly bigger than before the war.
Ukraine meanwhile has over 310,000 troops under arms.
Re. South: except for exchanges of artillery fire and continuous fighting in Olexandrivka, there's…
Oskil, OK, I'll correct that too. Thanks!
My pleasure. Yes, thx: have corrected the typo from Kyiv to Kharkiv.
Erm, what author are you talking about, Viktor?
laser-guided bombs are no medium-range air-to-air missiles.
Not without the NATO delivering suitable ECM to the Ukrainians.
'Putin' is always a 'big' topic, and yes, I do not like to speculate and guess: I'm simply…
Ukrainian guerrilla is foremost active in the south, in the Melitupol area.
This is already happening, even if at a much more limited level than early during the war.
was deleted (from my summary, too): was not related to this war.
AFAIK, some are already deployed in Ukraine, but not as fighting troops.
Yup, turned out it was some training video: thanks for 'head up' on this, have removed it now.
Thanks; very nice: I'll remove it!
OK, thanks for 'correction' (was quoting what the press-report said).
Ukraine War, 16, 17, 18 and 19 April 2022
I know no 'better' figures but what official Kyiv is reporting, and thus I try to avoid discussing…
I'm getting such questions for 35+ years - and never discussing any of my sources (not in the…
I've seen such claims - but in social media only.
Well, at least three TD-brigades are involved in holding the LOC, these days....
Well, truth to be said, I know that too, but I'm trying to avoid going into the subject.
Local Ukrainian sources said they have had an 'outpost' there, for months already - and this had to…
That's an estimate based on pre-war reports.
Yes, sadly: Kharkiv is heavily pounded the last 4-5 days.
Ukraine War, 14–15 April, 2022
Yup. But, that flame is no result of a missile hit.
OK, but: how should Moskva have sent any SOS signals if, according to RUMINT from both Russia and…
Because detecting and then tracking a ship operating from 'beyond the horizon' is extremely hard.
Nope, got no info on where was she supposed to move.
Moskva was constructed in Mykolaiv, back in 1976-1979.
Supplement: Moscow down, 15 April 2022
When officials ban free spread of information, then that's censorship., no matter where or when.
Yes, of course it would (requre better air defences).
Thank you, John; nice that the work is as appreciated.
Russian pressure, Turkish overdependence on Russian gas, Erdogan's incompetent negotiations....
I do think they're much higher than usually assessed.
Sebastien answered this better than I could.
Yes, exactly: that's the video I mean.
There's a video shown the start of the conflagration (sorry, too lazy to search for it now).
Essentially, the Slava/Moskva-class is so packed full with armament, that any kind of damage is…
Yup, destroy everything and everybody, and then rule over 'peaceful ruins'.
Thx, interesting to hear this!
Ukraine War, 12–13 April, 2022
Ah yes, one more thing - and then, I think, his 'worst sin' of all: he's explaining Maidan as 'pure…
Hard to gauge before it happens; but, and in theory, it could change a lot.
Let me tell you what I see as 'solutions' to the 're-arming Ukraine dillema'.
Have already been asked about Mearsheimer and that appearance, several times since early March....
Yesno. Age of some tank is not helping gauge if it's easier to learn to drive or not.
'Understanding Germany' is like trying to 'understand Ukraine' - or any other country: not easy for…
Bucha and Kramatorsk are but two out of DOZENS of Russia-instigated massacres of civilians, yet the…
The stock of BGM/RGM-109s is relatively limited, and they're a highly important weapon in the US…
Sorry, but that's daydreaming.
Supplement: …blah-blah on German Arms for Ukraine
My pleasure! Thanks for your trust!
Thx a lot, Daniela. Wish you the same!
Yesno. The West must first start manufacturing its 'best & most modern stuff' - in order to become…
Not really: sadly, I do not know anybody who could say how many have been manufactured over the…
Yup, definitely double standard. Why not?
Just a note on 'Chuhiv': have checked it two times, and the report said 'Chuhiv', not 'Chuhuiv'.
Ukraine War, 9, 10, 11 April 2022
Sorry, it will be skipped: other than both sides rushing reinforcements into eastern Ukraine, and…
Rather surprised this didn't happen already....
Putin has already launched an aggression and is running a war of extermination in Ukraine.
Here comes Dvornikov…. 10 April 2022
Something of that kind is almost certainly going to happen.
Yup. Mind: have said so already weeks ago: it doesn't matter how many Russian generals get KIA.
Yes, it's closely resembling the story of the Winter War.
Oh dear: this is lots of questions. Think I'll address them in a separate feature.
So far, the Russian generals came in dumb.
Oh my....sorry to hear about this!
Supplement: Reorganisation of the RFA Command in Ukraine
Neither can I: is directly from a release by the Keystone Cops.
From the military point of view, name and size of the place 'don't matter': all that matters is its…
Yesno. It's a mix of Transliteration from Russian/Ukrainian and 'German' influence (after all, yes…
Partly 'regulars' and - since 24 February - everybody who can hold a weapon has been recruited.
Thanks to Rusisan illusions of grandeur and related incompetence: yes, they're doing an excellent…
There is one strategic armour assault - south of Izium - going on for 5 days already.
One simply can't exclude them.
Indeed, characters in question could always do so.
Well, Putin certainly has means to keep this war 'alive' for years longer.
All Russian troops out of all of Ukraine, Ukraine in the EU, and an 'Iron Curtain' along the border…
Thanks. Just got some similar and then some more info....
Yup: it's hard to 'surround', say, 70,000 Ukrainian troops along the LOC - with 15,000-20,000…
Indeed, I agree: they _must_ take Barvinkove first.
It can't 'win': it might take a place or two, and/or cause additional - and often: massive - losses…
https://www.google.com/maps/@47.5238011,32.9099179,12z
I'm concerned it's the latter: doubt the Russians would let the locals to bury any of Ukrainian…
Nothing. AFAIK, Ukrainians have very few forces behind the Russian lines in the north-east, and…
This is an area where i've got absolutely no contacts.
Thanks. Have contacts in Mykolaiv, but nobody in Oleksandrivka. Thus, this is most welcome.
...rather sad anybody has to remind somebody about this fact - and that in the Year 2022...
Mind, I'm working 14-16 hours a day, 6,5 days a week - and that already since November last year.
Buryn = is the way it's written on several available online maps (for example, here: https://www.goo
For second time: what do you see when you check the map here?
I have a feeling they ceased taking POWs already yesterday....
No idea. And, honestly, wouldn't say (at least not right away) until some 3-4 days after this would…
It did turn into a battle of attrition already around 15 March.
It's simply available in numbers and more precise (and safer to operate) than anything the VKS has.
1.) As 'clearly proven' by the last five weeks, the RFA simply has no means to take Kyiv.
1.) That's simply a confirmation for what I wrote earlier.
Buryn (to make sure: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Buryn',+Sumy+Oblast,+Ukraine,+41700/@51.19576
A little bit confusing for me, for I've got a map showing it west, and another, south/south-east....
I am convinced these were Russian Mi-24s, no Ukrainians at all.
By now, I would say that the Russians have decided not to deploy any kind of ABC-systems in Ukraine.
In theory, or on the paper, selling an aircraft is as simple as selling bread.
I do not feel at free to go into more details, so both 'geographic descriptions' in question should…
The issue of fuel supplies is certainly going to become more urgent, perhaps even critical, the…
Ukraine War, 31 March — 1 April, 2022
In the RFA, nobody is discussing orders.
Not necessarily a 'total' (Putin would never squander so much of 'his' money), but word is about…
Is there any photo/video showing those Ukrainian markings?
Yup, thx: my command of Russian is just enough to understand that much. ;-)
Yes, but at least Germany is going to end its contracts with Putin (Austria is almost certain to…
I'm not into predicting future.
There are lots of such rumours, some say they even ended in one of specialised clinics in Belarus.
Yup, sorry for typo: have corrected it meanwhile.
Yes, seems the RFA did - after all - withdraw completely from that part of Ukraine, yesterday and…
Yup, after writing this, early in the morning, have received lots of similar reports.
Yup. Indeed, even many of Russians are wondering 'how could they let them do that' and similar.
Ukraine War, Interim Report, 1 April 2022
No idea. Sorry, don't know enough about the AT-4.
Good question. Right now: no idea. I know too little about Ukrainian Army's logistics.
Thx. Sadly, this is not working for me.
They do, and there seems to be an improved version in service, apparently designated the TB.4,
No idea. Last I've heard from them was sometimes the last week, while they were still in high…
Logistics has a lot to do with units receiving realistic objectives.
Launching an attack into the Russian proper would be doing the same like Russia did: launching an…
Yes, that's why I've removed the link.
Yes, thanks: several readers have made me aware of this mistake: was a combination of misread and a…
Last week, I've received lots of such questions - from the media and even from several politicians…
Thx, and yes, sorry: didn't check this properly.
Cruise missiles like the ones you're asking about are highly effective - for targeting fix/immobile…
Please, be so kind and understand: I'm not predicting future.
Must've been after I wrote that sentence (mind that my reports are not always 'written at once: I…
Yes, that used to be the case.
Thank you. Is a slow - but valuable service!
Thx. Using some 5-6 different maps for my orientation, and my vision is not the best any more.
Thank you: simply trying my best to inform.
Ukraine War, 28–30 March, 2022
I remain on the standpoint that this war can be decided on the battlefield only.
Thx. I do understand a little bit of 'military Ukrainian', so it's definitely of some help.
My pleasure, and thanks for your and everybody else's trust!
I'm waiting for confirmation for such reports.
Nope. I've said already few times (the first time, I think, sometimes around 2-4 March), that this…
The reports I've heard about the activity of the 36th CAA yesterday were 'leaning in direction' of…
That would be a great idea: sadly, lacking time to draw my own maps (drawing lots of 'other' things…
My pleasure. Hope, your family is safe.
It is a different aircraft: have had that confirmed by several sources.
It's 'Luk'yanivka' - some 10km further north-west.
Yup. That's where Russian commanders are insanely irresponsible.
AFAIK, the number of ballistic missiles fired by RFA in this war has surpassed the figure of 1,200…
Thx, Michael, much appreciated!