Ukraine War, 27–28 April 2022
Good morning everybody!
Good morning everybody!
Here’s my review of most important developments in Ukraine for 27 and 28 April 2022.
CAA — Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG — Battalion Tactical Group (700–800 troops, Russia)
CBU — cluster bomb units
GCAA — Guards Combined Arms Army (Russia)
GMRD — Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)
GTA — Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD — Guards Tank Division (Russia)
intel — intelligence
Keystone Cops in Moscow — Ministry of Defence (Russia)
KIA — killed in action
LOC — Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass)
MBT — main battle tank
Mech — Mechanised Brigade (Ukraine)
MIA — missing in action
MRB — Motorised Rifle Brigade (Russia)
MRD — Motorised Rifle Division (Russia)
OPSEC — operational security (prevention of inadvertent revelation of potentially critical or sensitive data)
PMC — private military company/contractor
POL — petrol, oil, lubricants
RFA — Russian Federation Army
South OSK — Southern Military District (Russia)
Tank — Tank Brigade (Ukraine)
TR — Tank Regiment (Russia)
VKS — Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space force, Russia)
STRATEGIC
The transfer of Western howitzers calibre 155mm — and related ammunition — to Ukraine is meanwhile in full swing. Transfer of (additional) air defence equipment is about to follow. I’m reluctant to go into any related details, though: think it’s better to let the Russians find out what’s deployed where and how it’s used — on their own.
AIR
Since the first cruise missile strike on the Zatoka Bridge was not entirely successful, the Russians repeated that attack. On 27 April at 06.45hrs in the morning the bridge was hit again, and this time either ‘destroyed’ (one version) or ‘damaged heavily enough’ for all traffic over it to be blocked. Around the same time, an incoming Russian missile (not sure if ballistic- or cruise) was shot down in the Dnipropetrovsk area.
Some of readers of my summaries are now guessing whether the Russians are reading my summaries and either acting correspondingly or mocking me?
I say: I strongly doubt this. But, if they are as dumb as to have to rely on my reporting for deciding about their next moves, they can also sign a capitulation and withdraw from all of Ukraine, right now.
Late on 28 April, five Russian cruise missiles have approached the Kyiv area. At least one hit an unknown kind of ‘infrastructure facility’ in Fastiv; two others should have targeted one of the transport hubs, but Ukrainians didn’t release any details (which is good that way). Two other missiles have targeted the Artyom Works in downtown Kyiv, but missed: one hit an apartment building instead…. And that only minutes after the General Secretary of the UN concluded his visit to the Ukrainian capitol.
(Guiteres visited Moscow, too, a day before, but his entire mission was entirely pointless: the Russians violated the UN Charta when launching their aggression on Ukraine, already back in 2014; they are repeating the exercise right now….add to that all their war crimes and crimes against humanity….so, why should they care about the UN at all…?)
On 28 April, the Ukrainians claimed three cruise missiles and one UAV shot down in the Odessa area. Other cruise missiles have hit the Synelnykiv railway junction in the Dnipropetrovsk region, with unknown results.
According to official Ukrainian counting, the Russians have spent over 1,300 ‘missiles’ (not sure if they mean ballistic- or cruise missiles) in the war by now, and their remaining stocks should be down to around 1,000.
AFAIK, this count is far too low. I do recall a count by the People in Need of Fresh Air, from early April (see my earlier reports), along which the Keystone Cops spent more than 1,200 ballistic missiles alone — and then by that point in time. Thus, my guess is that the Ukrainian GenStab actually meant the number of Russian cruise missiles only.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
In the Kharkiv area, the Ukrainians have pushed the RFA’s screen further north and liberated Ruska Lozova and Kutizivka, the last two days. They’re also back to pushing east in direction of Kupiansk, and widening the liberated area along the M03 highway.
South of Izium, early on 27 April the Ukrainian GenStab admitted that the Russians have taken Zavody, and were in the process of conquering Velyka Komyshuvakha (where the Ukrainian defences held out through yesterday, 28 April). Furthermore, they were pushing on Nova Dmytrivka. However, they were also suffering heavy losses for this success and on the verge of running out of steam, once again — which is no surprise, actually: I do recall certain Soviet tactical manuals, from around 50+ years ago, along which it’s the worst idea to scatter units involved in an operation of this kind, and let them attack multiple places in different directions, all at once. But, of course, why should commanders of the RFA pay attention about such an obsolete way of thinking in the Year 2022: Rommel was doing the same, south of Tobruq, back in 1942, and with success….
Therefore, during the same day the RFA has deployed two BTGs of the 76th VDV Division from Russia to the Izium area. It might sound like if I’m ‘obsessed’ by that unit, but its considered ‘the best’ the RFA has to offer, no matter where, and its presence is meaning this is the new Schwerpunkt in the Russian aggression on Ukraine: I would go as far as to say Dvornikov/South OSK did a major mistake by not deploying these two BTGs to the Izium area on time, because their presence could’ve enabled a break-trough over the road between Barvinkove and Slovyansk. Now they’ve arrived too late: only once the Ukrainians have already prepared their new defence line….
Further east….
The Russians have forced remaining Ukrainian defenders out of Zarichne, and since 27 April are pushing on Lyman and Yampil. Ukrainians claim they’re still holding at least the southern outskirts of Rubizhne: is possible, because the Separatist 7th Brigade has suffered massive losses while assaulting this town without any kind of serious support, the last two months. The condition of that unit is so poor, its commanders gave up attempting to assign platoon-commanders, and even most of its companies — largely consisting of forcefully recruited miners from Donbass — are meanwhile leaderless: the Russians are simply throwing poorly-trained troops without training into the meatgrinder.
In the Severodonetsk area, after securing Novotoshkivske, the Russians are pushing on Nyzhnie and Orikhove. The situation here is similar to that in the Rubizhne area: sure, the VKS is bombing and rocketing, but because of Ukrainian air defences, its pilots are releasing from such altitudes and distances, that the mass of their ordnance is missing. Moreover, air strikes are not coordinated with ground troops: indeed, there are no UAVs to fly recce and no forward air/artillery controllers. As result, even the artillery support is not coordinated. Thus, any attacking Separatists are cut to pieces while being thrown into one assault after the other.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is what they call the ‘human wave tactics’….
No doubt, Ukrainian defenders are exhausted, meanwhile, and supply problems are slowly growing, but so far they’ve got relatively little problems repelling up to a dozen of such ‘assaults’ a day — for weeks already.
….thinking of it, the situation is the same between Niu York (west of Horlivka, where the Russians lost one of their ‘spraying-and-praying’ Mi-28Ns: it was shot down by Ukrainians as soon as it got too close to their positions, on 27 April), via Avdiivka and Pisky, Krasnohodivka and Marinka, all the way ‘down’ to Novomikhailivka: the Russians are air striking and shelling like mad, but not coordinating and thus their ground assaults were all repelled.
MARIUPOL
On Putin’s TV-order to stop assaulting the Azovstal complex, the Russians have advanced into the northern part of the same, on 27 April. The defenders withdrew from there to the main complex: it’s pointless to ‘defend’ too long lines.
Of course, Russian artillery barrages went on for the last two days; up to 50 air strikes have hit the complex during the night from 27 to 28 (including with incendiaries-filled bombs). Indeed, yesterday, the Russians (intentionally, as always) bombed the main hospital, causing a part of the building to collapse, trapping over 500 wounded and medical personnel taking care of them. The combined force of Ukrainian defenders has no means to help…
SOUTH
Along the southern frontlines, the advance of the 58th CAA came to an almost complete standstill, the last two days. No surprise considering how few troops Zusko has got in total. Of course, his artillery continued shelling plenty of places between Kamyanske in the west and Vuhledar in the east, but really active remained only the 70th GMRR — and that unit ‘just’ continued its pointless assaults on Velyka Novosilka. By side the fact that the 70th GMRR is constantly hit by Milan anti-tank guided missiles (of French origin, and operated by the Canadian-Ukrainian Brigade), whenever on the move, but: I really wonder, what idiot thinks a single BTG might get anywhere from that point ‘in the middle of nowhere’….?
Part of the 58th CAA’s problem is the vivid activity of Ukrainian ‘partisans’ (mostly special operations troops left behind the enemy lines): these are constantly ambushing supply convoys and, yesterday in the morning, they blew up a railway bridge Yakymivka, in the Melitopol area. That was Zusko’s only railway connection between the occupied Crimea and the centre of his frontline… I prefer not to think about the Russian retaliation against the local population…
In the Kherson area, the 49th CAA has initiated two counter-attacks on 27 April: in the north, it attacked from Bila Krynytsa on Orlove and Zahradivka, i.e. in the direction of Inhulets. In the south, it forced the Ukrainians out of Chernobaivka and Kyselivka, took Tavriiske and attacked Oleksandrivka and Nova Zoria. With other words: preoccupied with the Battle of Donbass, Ukrainians failed to concentrate enough reinforcements to continue their push into Kherson. In turn, the Russians were left with enough time to reinforce their troops and re-initiate offensive operations. That said, the Ukrainians claim their Osa-AKs to have shot down a Ka-52 in the Kherson area.