Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan War, 17 September 2022
Another ‘quick & dirty’ — this time on developments between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Another ‘quick & dirty’ — this time on developments between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
The affair between these two countries is about the border — and then the border created by Russian conquests of the 19th Century, and then the Soviet conquests of the 1920s. These have created a Tajik and two Uzbekh enclaves inside Kyrgyzstan — roughly in between of Vorukh/Woruch (Tajik enclave) in the west, and Chong-Kara, Jangail and Shohimardon in the east. Crucial is the position of the town of Batken, ‘in the middle of all of this’. In turn, the Kyrgyz town of Barak was left inside the Soviet Uzbekistan (and, with this, inside the modern-day Uzbekistan, too).
That said, lately, the principal reason for fighting seems to be an old water dispute in the eastern-most sector of the northern border between Kyrgyzstan and Tadjikistan…and that border is extremely complex: essentially, Tajikistan is ‘enveloping’ all of southern Kyrgyzstan, which in turn is enveloping all of south-eastern Uzbekistan…
In April and May 2021, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a series of clashes in which at least 55 were killed and up to 40,000 civilians displaced.
This ‘minor border dispute’ was initiated by fist-fights between border guards. These escalated to ‘stones and slugs’, and then into all-out fighting in the Kok-Terek area, in which at least 41 were killed, and which prompted Kyrgyzstan to evacuate about 38,000 civilians from the Batken area. That round ended through internationally-negotiated cease-fire, effective with 2 May, and return of the evacuees, eight days later.
This year, there were renewed clashes in January and March, and — along what one can hear this morning — there’s now a full-scale war fought between the two.
The new round of fighting erupted on 14 or 15 September: interestingly, right after a visit by the Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoygu to Dushanbe, capital of Tajikistan. Whether he really encouraged the Tajik government to escalate the conflict: no idea. It does look like the latter decided to take control over the water distribution system of the Isfara River. In turn, some say it was actually Kyrgyzstan that instigated the new war — by running a military exercise in the Balken area, and because the government in Bishkek is cooperating with the USA. Must admit, never found the time to read myself properly into related issues, thus don’t know for sure.
What I am sure is that yesterday the Tajik Armed Forces have launched air strikes on bases of the Kyrgyzstan Air Force, and then the ground forces- supported by tanks and artillery — entered Kyrgyzstan at several points. That with ‘air strikes’ is very relative: Tajik Air Force has no combat aircraft, but about two dozens of (Soviet/Russian-made) Mil Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters. Kyrgyz Air Force is only slightly more powerful: it’s equipped with about a dozen of Mi-8s and Mi-24s, but also a dozen of Sukhoi Su-25 fighter-bombers. Foremost, lately it acquired three TB.2 Bayraktars from Turkey, and these are known to have been involved in combat, yesterday.
Kyrgyz air defences appear stronger (at least on the paper), too: the country is maintaining an Air Defence as a separate branch of its armed forces, and this is including two missile brigades equipped with old SA-2 and SA-3 SAM-system — and that in addition to air defence regiments of its Army. For comparison, some five-six regiments of Tajik air force are equipped with shorter-ranged, mobile SAM-systems.
That said, precisely because of weak air forces, one must expect the ground forces of either side to bear the brunt of fighting. This is confirmed by reports about heavy deployment of artillery and tanks, released by both sides since yesterday.
By now, videos have surfaced confirming reports that the Tajik Special Forces have entered the town of Batken (more precisely: its northern side), and have secured what’s described as the ‘key water-pumping station’.