Ukraine War, 11–12 June, 2022

Good morning everybody!

Good morning everybody!

AIR

After a longer break, Russians run a new cruise missile strike deeper into Ukraine. Late on 11 June, four Kalibrs have approached from the south-east: one hit a gas pipeline in Chortkiv, in Ternopil region. Another demolished an apartment building and a nearby parking lot. What happened with others remains unknown. Reportedly, 23 civilians and soldiers were wounded.

Yesterday, the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed the downing of three Ukrainian jets: all MiG-29s and Su-25s.

Ukrainians are in the process of improving their air defences in the Donbass. I’ll just add this photo and leave it at that:

…BTW, the first of German-made IRIS-T SAM-systems is to ‘follow’ — in October…

BATTLE OF DONBASS

In general, there is a lots of talk about the Russians ‘now’ trying to advance in better-prepared, better-organised fashion. There are also many more reports about deployments of Russian UAVs than before. Usual RFA assaults begin mid through the afternoon, by artillery observers who are trying to find Ukrainian positions: these are then plastered by artillery — intensively, and for hours, if necessary. The intensity of artillery Russian artillery barrages is beyond ‘massive: some Ukrainians have counted up to 500 impacts from BM-21s on of their positions — in a matter of 1–2 minutes. The Russians are reinforcing this by lobbying dozens of tactical ballistic missiles, many of them with cluster warheads (yes, that international treaty banning the use of CBUs went into effect in 2010 — but Russia followed in fashion of the USA and never ratified it; thus it’s non-valid for it). Then there come tanks, followed by infantry…

Kharkiv….once again, Dvornikov brought in semi-recovered BTGs from Russia to reinforce desperate attempts of the DNR/LNR-separatists to hold whatever is left of the Russian ‘bridgehead’ inside Ukraine, north of Kharkiv. The last two days, these have attempted to assault Rubizhne and Starytsya — claimed as ‘recovered’ by the Russians about a week ago — without success. So, when that didn’t work: then why not lob a few BM-27- and/or BM-30-rounds at Kharkiv… The Russians are now reporting that both attacks were ‘just aiming to stabilise the frontline’. Why trying to stabilise it if everything is OK….?

(Yes, I know: me and my questions….)

Izium… Ukrainians seem to have pressed forward their attack into the forest west of the town, reaching points about five kilometres west of Izium. The area in question became ‘famous’ for being shelled by Ukrainian artillery for over a month, causing numerous fires. First reports are indicating the liberation of Zavody and Spivakivka. Centrepiece of this operation seems to be the 81st Mech Brigade.

Sviatohirsk-Slovyansk…on 10 June, the authorities of the DPR have announced the ‘start of the battle for Slovyansk’. The place is of immense importance for them, because it was the site of ‘the uprising’ back in 2014, and there’s little doubt that a sizeable portion of the local population is supportive of the idea of living in the Russkiy Mir (Russian World). Gauging by the presence of one of Wagner BTGs there, plus troops of the 20th, 29th, and 35th CAAS, together with Severodonetsk, this is currently the focus of Russian attacks. For the start, Ukrainians have, finally, withdrawn from Dovhenke, two days ago. The Russians then promptly advanced on Mazanivka and Dolyna, further south-east, until Ukrainians stopped this attack short of Krasonpillya. Russians complained about mines…and ‘enemy resistance’. Further east, after assaulting from two sides for two days (from north-east, across Siversky Donets, and from west, from the direction of Dolyna), the Russians have managed to enter Bohorodichne, yesterday. Their second attempt to cross Siversky Donets at Tetyanivka was….well, the Russians say they have crossed, but decided not to establish a bridgehead… with other words: yes, that attack was repelled.

Severodonetsk….can’t help it, I’m going to remain in disagreement with the mass of other commentators and different experts: yes, Ukrainians — foremost 79th Airborne Assault and the Foreign Legion (British, Brazilians etc.) — have entrenched themselves inside the Azot Works and the Industrial Zone, but when the Russians start using Western reports about ‘holding 70% of the town’, one knows ‘what’s the time’, i.e. reality. Namely, the fact that Ukrainians have entrenched themselves in one part of the town doesn’t mean the Russians have ‘automatically secured the rest’. On the contrary, Metolkine, (at least) the northern side of the airport, and the northern side of Syrotne remain under Ukrainian control. The centre of the town and the southern side of the airport are no-man’s land, and everything is densely shelled by the Russians (seems, they do not pay much attention about many of civilians still there actually being on their side)… That said, the Russian artillery has achieved one success: after weeks of trying, it knocked out the second of three bridges connecting Severodonetsk with Lysychansk, thus preventing Ukrainians from hauling supplies over Seversky Donets with help of vehicles. The last one is badly damaged and thus cannot be used by vehicles. In long term, this is likely to prove decisive.

Popasna Bulge… earlier Russian attacks on Vrubivka, Mykolaivka, and Vasylivka (see my last report) have all been repelled; on the contrary, they seem to have withdrawn back to Lypove, and thus (at least few hundreds of metres) away from the T1302 road. Few luke-warm attacks on Vrubivka yesterday were repelled again. The Russian control of Komyshuvakha is ‘partial’ at most, and their attempts to secure the rest of Toshivka and advance westwards from there were all spoiled (indeed, they fell back on Nyzhnie), and thus Hirske and Zolote remain firmly under Ukrainian control.

Further south, the Russians have shelled the Vuhledar Thermal Powerplant, destroying an administrative building.

Overall, once again it turns out the RFA simply lacks troops: Dvornikov and Zhidko have pilled everything they’ve got to break through to Slovyansk and capture Severodonetsk, only to leave other areas unprotected… Considering reports along which that Ukrainian shelling of a stadium in Stakhanov — and that around the time the chief of Wagner, Evegeny Prigozhin (former Putin’s chef), was visiting the place, on 10 June — has liquidated an entire BTG of Wagner, guess, it’s going to take a few days for them to find troops necessary to re-launch their assaults.

BTW, Ukrainians claim to have shelled a forward base of Kadyrov’s Chechens in Rubizne, in similar fashion, sometimes in the last two days. Count of casualties is not yet known…

SOUTH

Ukrainians continue pushing on Kherson on a wide front. In the north, they’re in the process of mopping up remaining Russians in Bruskynske. In the south, they have liberated Tavriyske, reached Kyselivka (though not entered it yet), and seem to have reached Oleksandrivka, on the coast west of Kherson…

The Russians are talking about local retreats, to ‘better maintain an extensive front supported by the tributaries of the Dniepr’: of course, all the Ukrainian attacks are ‘ending in a disaster’, because ‘the ground is open, and a Russian counterattack has reached the outskirts of Mykolaiv’. But, you know, gaining territory doesn’t matter, what matters is the destruction of the Ukrainian Army…. seriously: considering how contradictive is the Russian reporting about this section of the battlefield…sigh… one must wonder why paying attention at all…