Ukraine War, 6–7 June 2022
Good morning everybody!
Good morning everybody!
In general, the Ukraine War is now a giant battle of attrition, with local offensives and counterattacks by both sides resulting in bitter losses. Except in one area (see below for details), most of fighting is ‘back-and-forth’, ‘artillery exchanges’, and the outcome usually of temporary nature, depending on what side brought reinforcements at what point in time and space.
That ‘one exception’ appears to be based on General Zhidko’s idea: contrary to what is usually reported, he didn’t ‘replace’ Dvornikov, but is serving under him, and is responsible for coordination of all operations in the Donbass area. Moreover, Dvornikov has no finesse: his style of command has resulted in all the latest frontal attacks without major gains. Apparently, Zhidko’s ‘one more, all-out push’ — perhaps the ‘Plan H’, if you like — is run by a new command (29th CAA) and, once again, aiming at closing the Severodonetsk Cauldron from a new direction.
Related: new videos have appeared shown additional trains hauling heavy artillery of the RFA in direction of Ukraine. Here are three stills from one example, shown a train loaded with what looked like a full battery each of 2S5s and BM-27s, and support vehicles.
Ironically, one might think something like, ‘now they’re bringing ever bigger guns to make ever bigger boom’. Partially, this is right. However, actual reasons are more complex. The (white-mad) RFA artillery officer here is, for example, complaining bitterly that the Russians have equipped the ‘armed forces’ of the LNR and the DNR with lots of artillery pieces of 122mm. So much so that after three months of intensive operations, there is a crticial shortage of ammunition calibre 122mm — not only in the LNR and the DNR, but in all of western Russia.
With other words: ‘trains loaded with heavy Russian artillery’ are not really a ‘reinforcement’, but ‘replacement’ of artillery for which there is no ammunition: the Russians are now rushing to replace D-30 howitzers and 2S1 howitzers calibre 122mm operated by Separatists, with D-20 howitzers and 2S5 howitzers calibre 152mm — because there’s still enough such ammunition. Plus, they are searching for ways to counter the longer-ranged 155mm artillery supplied by the NATO to Ukraine, because it turned out that the famed 2S19 MSTAs can’t shoot back over the same range…
Furthermore, he says that the arrogance and corruption of the Keystone Cops resulted in a situation where the RFA has no idea how poorly effective and misused is its artillery — and is ignorant of massive infantry casualties that resulted from this. For example, they’re constantly targeting concrete fortifications with BM-21s: the effects look spectacular on videos, but in reality, the ‘light’ 122mm rockets are causing no damage.
Finally, the RFA’s counter-battery capabilities are next to non-existent. They not only lack forward artillery controllers (or at least those who know what are they doing), as reported several times already, but cannot support their artillery units even with the bare minimum of one ‘Orlan UAV per battery’. His recommendation: the Keystone Cops should try fighting Ukrainians with all of their palaces instead…
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Kharkiv….about 4–5 days ago, the RFA launched yet another counterattack, though this time on a wide front in southern direction. Rumours have it that it has taken Rusky Tyshky, Cherkaski Tyshky, Petrivka, and Peremoha, and to be pushing for Mykhailivka in the west, via Shestakove and Fedorivka in the east, thus threatening the T2104 road (connecting Kharkiv with Staryi Saltiv). With other words, this is a significant counteroffensive, which might be involving some 6–7 BTGs with lots of artillery support,, and is aiming to drive Ukrainians away from the Oskil River: definitely away from Russian border and Vovchansk in particular. What I’m not sure about is the status of Ternova: haven’t found any reports from that place, yesterday.
That said, this effort might be quite pointless because 155mm howitzers recently delivered by the NATO can reach major Russian supply hubs — like Kupyansk, Svatove, or Starobilsk — from within Ukrainian-controlled territory west of the Oskil River and south of the Siversky Donets. The question is rather if Ukrainians can find an opportunity to start regularly shelling the local railways over ranges of 35 and more kilometres. Right now, this is not the case because new howitzers are busy repelling renewed Russian attacks - like the following one.
Izium….after a spate of defensive successes by Ukrainians over the last few weeks, there are bad news from the area south-east of this town, the last few days. At the time I wrote my last review, I mentioned reports that Ukrainians have withdrawn from Studenok: well, this turned out to be truth — and that with immediate and negative consequences for them. By the time Studenok fell, the RFA has repaired the railway line from Kupyansk to Studenok — just in time for Dvornikov and Zhidko to, reportedly, bring in an entirely new command into the combat zone: the 29th Combined Arms Army (CAA).
As a result of that appearance, Ukrainians have lost several important places, the last few days. On 4 or 5 June, defenders of Dovhenke were forced to withdraw, and then the RFA delivered a massive blow on the defences of Sviatohirsk. Sure, Ukrainians withdrew in good order and blew up the bridge to Bohorodichne. However, this was still a surprise because Sviatohirsk was supposed to have very good defence positions. Instead, by the morning of 6 June, the RFA secured most of that town.
Early on 7 June, the Russian then launched an attack on Dolyna, and might have taken the same, before proceeding to attack Bohorodichne from the west — and that with extensive support of TOS-1s. Right now, I’m not sure if the Ukrainian garrison held all of this out.
Some analysis here… At least it can be said that Dvornikov’s and/or Zhidko’s intentions on this part of the frontline are clear. Yes, the RFA took Lyman and reached the Syversky Donets in the Raihorodok area. However, trying to cross there and assault Slovyansk from north-east would probably end in a disaster comparable to the one from about a month ago. Instead, the 29th CAA — if really there — appears to have the task of punching out of the problematic terrain in the Studenok-Sviatohirsk area, and reaching the open ground north of the road and railway line linking Barvinkove and Sloviansk. Now the question is once again that of Ukrainians rushing reinforcements to stop this advance, while hoping their units already in this area might hold out for long enough — and if the Russians have any capacity left to run a similar operation from the south…
The Siversky Donets frontline… The situation in between Staryi Karvan and Raihorodok seems to have quietened down a bit, the last 2–3 days: the Russians claim to have forced all Ukrainians to the southern side of Siversky Donets (and that all the way down to the area between Raihorodok and Starodubivka), but I’m not sure if this is entirely truth. The frontline along the Siversky Donets between there and Severodonetsk appears to be quiet, with Ukrainians holding a bridgehead north of the river in the Ozerne area.
Severodonetsk…. 3–4 days ago, Ukrainians have brought in elements of another brigade into the town. With help of fresh troops, they first pushed Russians out of the centre. The Russians then brought in reinforcements — primarily Separatist reservists — counterattacked, and pushed Ukrainians back by few streets. However, Ukrainians then attacked further east, and took Metolkine and Voronove, possibly advanced into the forest in direction of Novookhtyrka. Another Russian counterattack then pushed them back into Voronove and Borivske. Latest rumours have it that Ukrainians have withdrawn from Metolkine, yesterday, but are still holding Voronove…
What is surprising me by some is that Ukrainian GenStab seems to be able to keep its troops in the town well-supplied with ammunition, food, and water. One has to hope they’re not too preoccupied with this drama, though, and not only aware of what’s going on west of Sloviansk, but in possession of sufficient reserves there, too: stopping the RFA there is going to take much more than, say, 3rd and 4th Tank Brigades, and 1–2 Territorial Defence brigades.
Popasna…the last 3–4 days, the RFA seems to have withdrawn most of battered units out of the Popasna Bulge, and replaced them with several ‘fresh’ BTGs. For example, what was left of two BTGs of the 31st VDV Brigade (76th VDV Division) was withdrawn and replaced by at least a BTG from the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade. New troops were deployed to reinforce efforts to encircle Ukrainian forces in Zolote, north-east of Popasna (an effort that was very costly, while bringing no useful results, the last few days, ‘although’ the place is defended by a battalion of Territorial Defence lacking heavy weaponry), and to launch a new effort to cut the T1302 road between Bakhmut and Lysychansk. To secure this advance from Ukrainian counterattacks (and artillery observers) from the north, the Russians seem to have taken at least the western side of Vrubivka, again, and have attacked Mykolaivka, north-west of it. As of yesterday morning, there were reports according to which the RFA attacked Berestove and, later during the day, reached and cut the R1302 Road in that area.
South of the Popasna Bulge, the Russians attempted to attack the Vuhlehirska power plant, but were — reportedly — repelled with significant losses.
Avdiivka…. and I’m mentioning this just because some claim the Russians have captured the place: nope, the 9th Regiment of the DNR-Separatists is still (well) outside the place… Actually, the Separatist troops are meanwhile refusing any kind of orders to attack: they say their officers to go and attack on their own. Result: officers have to go over to the Ukrainian positions and try to take videos showing these empty. If they can bring such videos back, to show them to own troops, then these are advancing…
SOUTH
Davydiv Brid…The Russians have reinforced their efforts to cut off the salient held by Ukrainian units through advances on Andriivka (south) and Davydiv Brid (north) along the Inhulets River, both heavily supported by their artillery and Su-25s. So far, without more success than to stop Ukrainian assaults on Bruskynske and Kostromka. As long as Ukrainian flanks are holding out, everything is OK. But, if not…
Since 6 June, Ukrainians claim to have launched an attack over the first line of the Russian defence of Kherson, to have advanced for about 10km, and to have liberated the village of Blahodatne, 35km north-west of Kherson. Apparently, this was an artillery-supported infantry attack, which is a bit surprising considering massive concentrations of the Russian artillery in that part of Ukraine.
This operation wasn’t really that trouble-free, then it seems that the Russians knocked out one of bridges along the assault axis, stalling the advancing Ukrainians and then hitting them by Su-25s and artillery. That is at least what can be ‘read between the lines’ of this video-report: