Ukraine War, 25 May 2022

Hello everybody!

Hello everybody!

Another ‘rather quick and dirty’ update for today. So much so, I’ll leave out the list of abbreviations.

STRATEGIC

For nearly three months the social media was brimming with reports about the Russians running out of food and fuel, lacking communications, then running out of troops and similar. Meanwhile, it’s brimming with reports about an imminent collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass: at least about a collapse of Ukrainian defence lines in the area between Severodonetsk in the north, and Bakhmut in the south, and their withdrawal to a new defence line between Siversk and Bakhmut — and that although the same Russian (and Austrian) analysts claiming such things are stressing that the Ukrainians ‘still cling’ to all their positions north-east of that line…

Reasons for such assessments are a combination of negative news from the Ukrainian side. For example, at least six videos from six different Ukrainian units (14th and 58th Mech, 25th and 79th AAB, and 101st and 115th TD Brigades; for example, here the troops of the 115th TD Brigade) have surfaced in the social media. Nearly all are involved in fighting between Kharkiv and Vuhledar for three months now, and all are complaining about the lack of skilled leadership (some about corruption and incompetence of their commanders), about the lack of training, the lack of food, the lack of fire-support, the lack of ammunition… indeed: about being deployed in entirely wrong place.

Moreover, there are ever more videos about bridges being blown up — and this time not by Russian artillery or mortars, but about bridges being blown up by Ukrainians: whenever the defenders start blowing up bridges, it’s an indication of defenders withdrawing.

Finally, there is no doubt that the Russians have cut off the T1302 road between Bakhmut and Lysychansk, and that the Ukrainian 30th Mech withdrew from the Svitlodarsk without a fight — despite elaborate defence system constructed around it over the last seven years.

For all these reasons there seem to be a general agreement that the Severodonetsk Cauldron is short of collapse, that the Ukrainians are already withdrawing, leaving only weak rear-guards behind to keep the Russians busy etc., etc., etc….

I tend not to think this way. First thing I can see in the social media is incredible hatred — and then hatred on both sides. The Russians are not only promising a conquest of 90–95% of Ukraine (and then ‘sharing’ the rest with Poland), or contemplating deployment of nuclear weapons to ‘convince’ Ukrainians into submission, but can’t understand even that there is an Ukrainian language — and that thus anybody is using Ukrainian geographic names, like Kyiv, Mykolaiv and similar. Indeed, people like me are all ‘paid US/NATO-propagandists’ if doing that. On the other — i.e. Ukrainian side — side, there is meanwhile such deep hatred for anything starting with ‘Russ…’, that a sheer notion of ‘Russian speaking’ people in Ukraine is considered offensive. The only thing left in common for both sides is that each is accusing the other of wasting its troops as ‘cannon fodder’, letting these being killed in scores during pointless assaults of in defence to the last bullet, while ill-trained, ill-equipped etc.

Now, all the ambient noises by side, when it comes to military affairs, for me this is indicative of immense fanaticism dominating both sides. And fanaticism usually means: people are going to fight no matter what.

Thus, and despite quite a few panic reports in the Ukrainian social media, I find it unsurprising that — at least so far — there is no indication of the Ukrainian GenStab issuing anything like an order for general withdrawal from the Severodonetsk Cauldron. Even if: the public would be the last to be informed.

More importantly, right now there appears to be no need for this: the T1302 road is not physically cut off, but sections of it are under fire by the Russians. There’s another road further north-west, along which Ukrainians are still capable of keeping their troops further north supplied — even if anything else than ‘sufficiently’. Foremost, the RFA, Wagner and Separatists are still between 10 and 15km away from Bakhmut, and, at least as of this morning, they were still nowhere near overrunning Severodonetsk. On the contrary, they still had their hands full with doing exactly that with another Ukrainian garrison, but further north-west….

AIR

Early on 24 May, the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed that the VKS has shot down an Ukrainian MiG-29 over the Kramatorsk area. Considering that report, plus an earlier one — about the downing of three Ukrainian Su-25s — it’s quite amazing that there seem to still be no Russians questioning the claim by the Keystone Cops in Moscow, according to which the Ukrainian Air Force was ‘destroyed’ already back in March or early April… Nah, instead, that’s ‘last few aircraft, piloted by last few Ukrainian pilots, trained in great rush and then sent into Kamikaze-attacks/spent as cannon fodder’. On the contrary, a single video — meanwhile proven as fake — is making everybody happy, and considered a ‘firm confirmation’ that (all?) the M777 howitzers supplied to Ukraine have been ‘destroyed’… And on the other side, even if the number of Ukrainian videos and photos shown destroyed and/or captured Russian equipment is (slightly) lower than usually, the ‘Rascists’ and ‘orcs’ are ‘killed in scores’…

Before I continue discussing PRBS — which, hand on heart: is as pointless as online psychoanalysis about the poor morale of one or the other party involved in this conflict, but still so popular in the media (no matter if in the East or the West) — let me instead point out a nice illustration for ferocity of fighting in these days, and then when it comes to air warfare: there are Russian reports like this one about the Vitebsk self-protection suites installed on their Mi-8-helicopters deflecting up to five Ukrainian-fired MANPADs per combat sortie in the Donbass area.

When every single helicopter appearing there is attracting so much attention from Ukrainian air defences, it’s easy to imagine what is going on on the ground…on the other hand, this is a nice illustration for the rate of expenditure of ammunition, and the — generally poor — effectiveness of air defences.

BATTLE OF DONBASS

Kharkiv area…there is no doubt that counterattack of the Russian 200th MRB into the flank of the lightly-equipped 110th Brigade TD has stalled the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and that the intensity of combat operations slowed down, the last two days. The frontline is stretching from Kozachya Lopan, via Liptsy, to Ternovaya, and then to Rubizhne, with most of the latter still in Ukrainian hands.

Izium… the fighting there is stalemated, too. Both sides are releasing next to no details but, ‘that itch in my small toe’ is telling me the Ukrainians have counterattacked the southernmost prong of the Russian penetration, probably from the west, probably somewhere between Velyka Komyshuvakha and Brazhkivka, and now both sides are busily (and with gusto) at each other’s throats…

Lyman… after unleashing murderous artillery barrages, volleys of BM-21 and TOS-1 multiple rocket launcher systems with thermobaric warheads, and over 300 air strikes (mostly by Su-25s) on 23 and 24 May alone, the Russians seem to have breached the defence perimeter of Lyman. Reportedly, between 200 and 500 troops of the 24th Mech, 79th AAB, 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, Territorial Defence, and the Donbass Battalion have surrendered yesterday, enabling the RFA to secure the northern third of the town. As of yesterday afternoon, there was a fierce fight for administrative buildings along the Independence Street, and as of this morning, the Russians are claiming the control over half the town.

BTW, such Russian reports in turn help clarify the way the Ukrainians are deploying their units: not as complete brigades, but ‘by battalions’. Means: while it is possible that brigade-commands (regardless if Army, National Guard or Territorial Defence) are responsible for specific geographic areas, they do not control just their own battalions, but are regularly reinforced by elements — i.e. battalions — from other brigades, as and when necessary. Not sure this is the best idea: might work for short periods of time and in great urgency, but it’s surely disturbing the cohesion and coordination of brigades, especially in longer terms. If nothing else, just see all the similar problems the RFA is having while trying to combine 2–5 BTGs — not only from different brigades, but armies and military districts — on narrow frontlines.

Severodonetsk…the assault on the city is going on, with the Russians ‘already in the outskirts’ for three days now. In turn, the Ukrainian counterattack into Toshivka, south of Siversky Donets, seems to have been stopped, and the place converted into another ‘area of contested ruins’.

Popasna….since yesterday, the 76th VDV is doing everything it can to overcome that fortified hill north of Volodymyrivka, held by the 30th Mech. An attempt to outflank this position by advancing around its eastern flank to the north and then on Bilohorivka to the west, was only partially successful: it caused the interruption of traffic on the T1302, but so far didn’t manage to secure any Ukrainian fortifications — foremost because the latter brought in their 80th AAB, which hit the Russians from the north, i.e. from the flank. Could it be, because Ukrainians have started to deploy Switchblade 300 loitering PGMs and French-made Ceasar howitzers…?

Of course, bitter fighting is going on — and that almost everywhere from Bilohorivka in the north, via Vasylika, to Lypoye and Volodymyrivka. ….and to say that both sides are suffering heavy losses would be a (massive) understatement. Shouldn’t mean either side is giving up, though…

Another tremendous battle is raging for Komyshuvakha: much of place seems to be under the Russian control, meanwhile, and the self-styled ‘Cossacks’ of the 6th Regiment DNR are assaulting positions of the 24th Mech (supported by elements of several other units, including the 17th Tank) in Trotske, further north….frontally, it seems (why learn anything from Wagner or the 76th VDV)…

Svitlodarsk…I’ve already mentioned the fall of that town, yesterday. During their withdrawal, Ukrainians have blown up a bridge, and have tried to blow up a dam on the Lugan River, nearby, but the latter attempt was not particularly successful. Still, and contrary to early reports, although heavily shelling the withdrawing Ukrainians, as of this morning it seems the Russians did not try to pursue defenders in the direction of Bakhmut. I.e. there is a chance of Ukrainians stabilising a new frontline along the Lugan River. Perhaps the ‘Musicians’ — Wagner — were too busy shooting videos of themselves rising Russian flags over Svitlodarsk….?

That said, a new crisis is meanwhile developing in the Avdiivka area. In three months of artillery barrages and assaults, the town was completely ruined, but Ukrainian garrison still held out — at least until about two days ago, when — in the aftermath of failures of four additional assaults attempts — the Russians brought the decision to bypass it. Correspondingly, since yesterday, the 1st Slavyansk Brigade of the DPR is attacking via Kamenka, Novselovka, Krasnogorovka and Niv Jork/New York. There are claims that the unit already took Novselovka, and then entered Avidiivka to engage ‘hordes of Ukrainian Nazis in residential buildings’….