'Putin' is always a 'big' topic, and yes, I do not like to speculate and guess: I'm simply…

IMHO, from Putin's POV, this is not about 'NATO': he knows the NATO is no threat for him - unless directly challenged. For him, this is…

'Putin' is always a 'big' topic, and yes, I do not like to speculate and guess: I'm simply collecting info and trying to assess what's going on.

IMHO, from Putin's POV, this is not about 'NATO': he knows the NATO is no threat for him - unless directly challenged. For him, this is actually about accountability. That's the way he understands 'democracy': as a threat of becoming accountable for all the crimes he committed over the time.

(In this regards, it's important to recall that Putin came to power because Yeltsin picked him for that position, and Yeltsin did so because he couldn't rule any more, yet needed somebody who would grant him - and his clan - safety from accountability for all the billions they have stolen over the years).

Now, why is this important? Because it tells us that he wants to rule. If he wants to rule, he needs people and country he can rule: if everything is pulverised by nukes, there's nothing for him left to rule.

Next point important is that as an ex-intel guy, Putin is always making decisions the results he thinks he can predict. He thought the West is much too disunited and would not react to his quick take-over of Ukraine. he thought Ukraine would be easy to secure. Thus, he launched a 'quick grab'....and that has proven to be a massive mistake. That has taught him few important lessons: between others not to mess around with things he cannot reliably predict.

That's why he reverted and left the RFA run the war on its own....

Right now, he cannot predict the NATO reaction to a deployment of nukes - whether in Ukraine or anywhere else. He only knows what whenever he - or one of his idiots on the Russian TV threatens with nukes - the West is getting upset.

No doubt, for Putin it's funny to watch Stoltenberg's voice going an octave higher whenever he's talking about nukes during press conferences. But, that's about the only satisfaction he can get.

On the other hand, as ex-KGB/FSB, he's an extortionist: somebody who's keeping himself in power for 22+ years with help of blackmails. Correspondingly, he's going to continue blackmailing: for this, he does not need doing anything else but let idiots babble about nukes on the Russian TV. That's keeping the NATO on its toes, even if the NATO knows that even Putin's announcement he's put his nuclear toops on alert was little else but a bluff: none of these has left its barracks, i.e. they're not really on alert.

Re. the likeliest conclusion of the conflict: my position is that this war is going to be decided on the battlefield. I've given up thinking beyond that point.

That said: yes, sure: the Russian oligarchy functions along the same principles like the Western oligarchy. Therefore, yes, one must expect it to seek to protect its own position. Whether that means it would take over.... I do not think so. Putin has created such a police-state-regime in Russia (see: Rosgvardia, see RT and other media) that 90% of the same is loyal soley to him. Even the FSB does not dare doing anything without Putin's permission any more. It would take a very massive blow for this to change, and right now I do not see any of oligarchs having the sufficient power and influence to organise something of this kind.

Not sure if's the case, but hope, that's offering at least some answers to your (very interesting!) question/s.