Ukraine War, 2–3 June 2022
Good morning everybody!
Good morning everybody!
STRATEGIC
If trying to figure out what is the GenStab of Ukraine reporting the last few days is hard, reading official Russian military releases is meanwhile really an art. At least it’s hard to remain serious.
For example: while he can’t stop explaining that it’s the West who is to blame for the World-wide shortage of food, announcing that Russia is going to double its production of grain and related exports, and while his forces are looting the destroyed Azovstal works in Mariupol, and while Belarus is deploying reinforcements along the border to Ukraine and mining roads and bridges there — Putin is proposing Ukraine to export its grain via Mariupol and Belarus….
On 2 June, during a meeting with Chief Tik-Toker, Kadyrov, the Top Keystone Cop in Moscow, Shoygu, announced the RFA is going to ‘accelerate the special military operation’ in Ukraine…By side that Kadyrov is dumb enough to post his threats for Poland and half of NATO in the social media, or that his troops are — despite their excellent gear — proving to be ultimate military incompetents, but the question is: with what, please?
For why am I asking this question: on one side, even the regime in charge of the People’s Republic of China is meanwhile having second thoughts about the developments in this war (especially regarding the worsening position of Russia). For the rest, please see below…
AIR & ELECTRONIC WARFARE (EW)
As reported earlier, during the evening of 1 June, the Russian Navy run a cruise missile strike against targets in the Stryi area of the Lviv Oblast. Four 3M54 Kalibr missiles hit the rail infrastructure, including tracks and two or three bridges, wounding (not ‘killing’ as I misunderstood) five and causing serious enough damage for repairs to be underway even 24 hours later. Of course, countless trains were delayed as result.
On 2 June, the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed a complete destruction of the homebase of the 406th Artillery Brigade, outside Zhovtnevoye, south of Mykolaiv region — and that by an air strike in which 12 US-made M777 howitzers should have been knocked out, and one Ukrainian Su-25 shot down, too.
Frankly (as always), no idea if this is truth, but I see only two alternatives: either commanders of the Ukrainian Southern Group of Forces are ultimate military incompetents, still holding large numbers of troops in their well-known bases, including those in immediate proximity of the frontline — thus exposing them to Russian attacks — or this is little else than another example of Russian wishful thinking. At least I would like to see more than commercial satellite photographs of destroyed hangars: after all, the Keystone Cops have already claimed their cruise missiles have destroyed the mass of NATO-supplied heavy weaponry and ammunition — and that back in early May, before these were even delivered…
The last evening, Ukrainian air defences reportedly shot down three cruise missiles over the Mykolaiv area, and one over the Odessa area (sounds like somebody’s air defences there have been significantly improved).
That said, Ukrainians do seem to have lost three artillery pieces west of Kherson, but already before 1 June. Seems, nowadays, any bit of good news for the Russians is fantastic news…
Ah yes…. And Ukrainians are complaining about a massive increase in deployment of means of electronic warfare by the RFA in Donbass. Correspondingly, the same is jamming all possible signals, from radio communications to Ukrainian UAV operations. Well, ladies and gentlemen: electronic warfare is something that never ends: a literal ping-pong game, something that’s constantly evolving, and thus it’s unsurprising if you enjoy advantages on one day, and then find yourself at a disadvantage on the other. Point is: Ukrainian Armed Forces are heavily dependent on UAVs for tactical reconnaissance — especially in Donbass (where the battlefield is much too far away for real-time reconnaissance by the NATO). Means: the situation is urgent and it’s imperative to find new solutions.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Kharkiv….Late on 2 June, the Russians claimed to have launched a major counteroffensive north of Kharkiv: correspondingly, they claim to have outflanked Ternove, and forced Ukrainians to withdraw. Furthermore, the Russians claimed to have recovered Peremoha, Shestakove, and Fedorivka, all west of Staryi Saltiv, thus de-facto encircling the latter. Eventually, it turned out the RFA might have attacked but if so: it not only lost additional tanks (indeed: several of them), but Ukrainians counterattacked and brought them back to their starting positions: indeed, they might have liberated Vesele in the process. The VKS reacted by air strikes and artillery barrage on Vesele in particular, while Ukrainian air force hit RFA positions in Slatyne and Dementiyivka,
Overall result is the same ‘much ado about nothing’ as usually: frontlines north of Kharkiv are de-facto the same like four days ago.
Izium….surprisingly little has been reported from this area, the last few days. This might confirm reports about the RFA withdrawing units from the bulge south of this town to other frontlines. Alternative explanation is offered by RUMINT along which the 35th CAA was completely destroyed thanks to its incompetent commanders: BTGs of the 38th and 64th Guards Moto Rifle Brigades should be down to 100 survivors after heavy fighting in forests west of Izium.
Svyatohirsk… According to Ukrainians, the RFA and Separatists have grouped about 20 BTGs in the area north of Svyatohirsk, Lyman and Dobrova. Both sides agree that on 2 June the RFA took Studenok, Yaremivka, and Pasika, north-west of Svyatohirsk, forcing Ukrainians to withdraw from Sosnove. The Russians then followed-up with an all-out attack along a wide front on Svyatohirsk from the north, and from the direction of Yarova, in the east.
Similarly, in the Lyman area, and regardless of heavy losses, the RFA is pushing south from that town: it took Stary Karavan and Brusivka, and launched its first attack on Raihorodok, on 2 June. This was repelled, i.e. stopped at the Siversky Donets River. Yesterday, heavy shelling was reported all the way from Shurove in the north to Brusivka in the south — i.e. the full length of the frontline opposite to Donetske.
My assessment is that the RFA and Separatists are going to need such a big number of BTGs alone because most of units in question are down to about 50% of their nominal strength — if not worse. Considering the local terrain (mentioned at least two times): no surprise.
Severodonetsk…since two days, there is a growing number of reports about Ukrainians bringing their ‘Foreign Legion’ into the town and then launching a major counterattack. As of the last night, Ukrainians might have recovered 20–30% of the town. RUMINT has it, it should be ‘British’ and ‘Georgian’ troops that run this operation: should have attacked into the Industrial Zone, caused heavy losses to Kadyrov Chechens in particular, and then advanced on a wide front, stretching all the way to Metolkine and Voronove. As of this morning, there are reports of heavy fighting in the centre of the town. Ukrainian counterattack came at some price: by now it’s known that 1 French- and 11 Georgians have been killed — though I’m uncertain if all of them just in this battle in Severodonetsk, or since 24 February.
Popasna Bulge… on 2 June, the Russians claimed they are ‘expanding West’. That said, the only place ‘west of Popasna’ they ‘attacked’, was Pylypchatyne, actually taken by them already days ago. Actually, they pushed from Nyrkove and Lypove in northern direction, on Bilohorivka, Berestove, Mykolaivka and Vrubivka, and launched two big attacks on Komyshuvakha and east of that place, trying to encircle positions of the 131st TD Battalion, and Ukrainian positions in Zolote area. These efforts were coordinated with attacks from Toshkivka on Myrna Dolyna, further north-east (and east of Lysychansk).
Now, most of fighting in question is still going on and the outcome is unclear, but from what I happen to know, the T1302 is still open for military traffic as of this morning, while the assault on Komushevakha of 2 June collapsed when at least two, more likely four, Su-25s of the VKS operating along the ‘spray and pray’ principle plastered a column of own infantry with their S-8 rockets, killing and wounding over 50. Well, nobody said ‘spray and pray’ is not working at all: the problem is just that with aiming…
Avdiivka….the situation in this area is ‘that good’ for the Russians, that meanwhile they’re complaining about Ukrainian counterattacks, and bragging to have repelled the same… Even the Russian TOS-1s can’t operate freely there, as obvious from this scene where an Izvestya team almost got caught by counterbattery fire.
SOUTH
The Russians claim to have forced Ukrainians back from Kosmoka and Bruskynske to Bilohirka and Davydiv Brid. There are next to no Ukrainian reports from this area for the last two days, indicating the offensive might have been brought to a standstill — but there is no confirmation for anything like general withdrawal, either.
Further south-west: for some 5–6 days now, Mykolaiv is under shelling by 2S7 Pion/Malka self-propelled guns calibre 203mm. These are causing significant amounts of damage on apartment buildings. Ukrainians seem to be shooting back with their M777s ‘destroyed’ in above-mentioned Russian strike on the base of the 406th Artillery Brigade.