Evenh with a full Russian mobilisation: what can Putin do?

The RFA used to have 220,000 troops and 2,900 MBTs at the start of this war. 120,000 of these supposed to be 'kontraktniki', and more than…

Evenh with a full Russian mobilisation: what can Putin do?

The RFA used to have 220,000 troops and 2,900 MBTs at the start of this war. 120,000 of these supposed to be 'kontraktniki', and more than 120,000 were deployed for the invasion.

Now they're down to about 80,000, perhaps 90,000. Even if we add about 40,000 (though probably less: more likely is the figure of around 30,000-35,000) of Separatists, and 10,000-20,000 Wagner PMC and other foreign mercenaries.... that all is simply not enough to outmatch 400,000 Ukrainians meanwhile have under arms - not even with superior artillery and air power.

Sure, Russia has a population of 140 million. In theory, it can mobilise at least to 900,000 reservists. But,

a) doing that would take them weeks (not only for mobilisation but for training): probably by June-July;

b) the troops in quesiton could then only be armed with whatever obsolete arms can be recovered from diverse 'depots' (see: old T-72s, thien T-62s and even T-55s, overhauls of which would take even longer than the training of reservists),

c) Putin cannot afford that (at least not without wasting 'his own' money, which he's never doing), and

d) after learning his lessons with bringing decisions about affairs the outcomes he cannot predict, Putin's going to do his best to avoid a general mobilisation, simply because he cannot predict the results.