Ukraine War, 10, 11, 12 May 2022

Good morning everybody!

Good morning everybody!

It’s getting ever harder — to avoid sarcasm when summarising developments on battlefields in Ukraine. But, let me try.

STRATEGIC

About the only really important thing on the diplomatic scene reported in the last few days is that Putin is now opposing not only Ukraine’s accession to the NATO, but also to the EU. Guess, that’s going to end like the story with Finland and Sweden…

On 11 May, the Ukrainian MOD announced the losses of the National Guard. Since 24 February, 501 of NG troops were killed in action, and 1,697 wounded. Furthermore, the GenStabU announced that the Russians fired 788 ballistic- and cruise missiles. Hm, isn’t that a significantly lower figure than 2,125 announced by the People in Need of fresh Air on 2 May, and lower than Zelensky’s figure of 2,014 from 5 or 6 May…?

AIR

The Russians continued pounding Ukraine with ballistic- and cruise missile strikes, the last three days — but the total number of such attacks significantly decreased. Moreover, they’re meanwhile primarily using Kh-22s and Kh-59s, neither of which can reach deeper into Ukraine. AFAIK, the deepest strike of the last few days hit the Kremenchuk refinery, on the Dnipro River, about 160km north of Dnipro. The same was targeted already on 24 April: now it was hit by four missiles (probably Kh-22s). Mikolayiv was hit again, and another place targeted by a Russian air strike was Novhorod-Siversky, in the Chernihiv area, where at least three were killed and 19 wounded when the local school was hit. Think one must be a Keystone Cop in Moscow to understand the purpose of squandering resources for such purpose..

Troops of the 81st Airborne Brigade (deployed south of Izium) claimed to have shot down a Russian Mi-24 using a FIM-92 Stinger MANPAD. A Ka-52 was claimed shot down by a Piorun MANPAD somewhere further east, but I couldn’t find more details.

In turn, the Ukrainian Air Force is concentrating all of its air strikes on the RFA in the Bilohorivka area. Must be because the same is as ‘unimportant’ as to be ignored in the mass of reports… At least they seem not to have suffered any losses, the last three days.

BATTLE OF DONBASS

Kharkiv…Ukrainian units are short of reaching the border, but there are reports about the RFA regrouping there to prevent their further advance. I find that the most interesting part of this counter-offensive is the fact that the Ukrainians have liberated numerous villages in the Rubizhne area, north of Stariy Saltiv: with this, they’re now within less than 20km — and thus well within artillery range — of Vovchansk: that’s as important because the railway link from Belgorod is running through Vovchansk, and that’s the primary supply line for RFA in the Izium area. Guess, we might get to see UAV-videos of destroyed trains in the coming days (at least that would be encouraging in the current situation).

Izium… for 4–5 days now, there’s no end of reports about an Ukrainian offensive north-west of Izium. Just no confirmation about any kind of advances or liberated places. To me, it rather looks like the Ukrainians are ‘learning by doing’ their artillerymen on their new NATO-standard 155mm artillery pieces, by blasting at forward Russian bases there. Probably in cooperation with infiltrated special forces and/or omnipresent UAVs.

Lyman…the Russians are on attack all the way from Oleksandrivka to Shandryholove and Novoselivka north of the town. Most of Shandryholove is under their control, but the rest of this frontline is holding out. Over the last 4–5 days, Ukrainians claimed the destruction of about 40 different vehicles in this area, including a number of T-72s and T-80s.

If truth, that would confirm the involvement of the 90th Tank Division and make something like one BTG destroyed (in total).

In turn, the Russians are priding themselves with the work of their technical support services, like this BREM-1 that’s shown evacuating a damaged T-72B3:

Impil/Yampil…is under Russian control, and Ozerno south of it is heavily shelled.

Bilohorivka… to recapitulate: by now it’s obvious that the Russians constructed one pontoon bridge over Siversky Donets west of this place, on 7 May. This was destroyed by Ukrainians. Then another pontoon bridge on 8 or 9 May. This was destroyed by Ukrainians. Then the third bridge on 10 or 11 May. This was destroyed by Ukrainians — and by the time the Ukrainian UAVs recorded the destruction of at least 6 T-72s, 15–20 BMP-2s, 8–10 MT-LBs, about 20 other vehicles, etc., and that just next to one of these bridges. That’s something like complement of at least one BTG of the RFA nowadays. All visually confirmed. Add to this the Ukrainian claims for destruction of about 20–30 other vehicles in the same area over the last 4–5 days, and you’ve got the picture about ferocity of the RFA’s onslaught and the fighting there.

….and still, the Russians just keep on coming — and crossing the river: a bitter battle is reported from inside Bilohorivka for at least three days. There are reports about Russian mechanised troops (that is: troops supported by armoured vehicles) ‘breaching the river’ in several directions, not only in direction towards Verkhnokamyanske/Novoselivka, 5km south-west, but also on Shypylivka.

Can’t help it: I do not feel good about developments in this area — even more so considering reports that the T1302 highway west of Lysychansk is under constant artillery barrage. This is one of crucial supply links into that town, but also to Sieverodonetsk.

Rubizhne…. (this is the another Rubizhne: a town north of Sieverodonetsk, embattled for two months already)….during the night from 10 to 11 May, remaining Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw from the town (as far as anything is left of it). Indeed, they have withdrawn from Vojevodivka — a place in between Rubizhne and Severodonetsk — too, and the RFA (which, reportedly, brought in four fresh BTGs) is pressing into the northern outskirts of Severodonetsk, despite the Ukrainians blowing up the bridge connecting Vojevodivka with that town. What’s worst, Ukrainian troops there are now seriously complaining about not having enough tanks, not enough artillery, not enough ammunition.

Popasna… over the last three days, the Russians have definitely advanced at least 1–2km west of the ruins of this town, in direction of the M3 highway. They are trying to advance north of Popasna, too: definitely pushing on Kumyshuvakha, where — contrary to Ukrainian claims — there are no fortifications.

Horlivka…The Russians have breached the LOC in between Horlivka and Donetsk, and secured Novobakhmutivka and Novokalynove, north of Krasnohorivka. As usually, there is simply a limit of how much punishment can any unit deployed in intensive combat take…

MARIUPOL

Russians continuously shelled the complex, and hit it by additional Tu-22M-3-strikes, the last three days. Yesterday, there were reports about the Russians (which is: the two BTGs of Separatists deployed there) breaching through the first line of defences in the north-east, and taking few objects, but Ukrainians then pushing them back. The garrison seems to still have a few UAVs operational, too, but I have the impression that most of the fighting is meanwhile taking place under the ground. That is: inside tunnels below the Azovstal. Getting details from there is, of course, even harder than getting any reliable info out of Mariupol these days. Thus, I think it’s safe to conclude: generally, the garrison is holding out, but the situation is critical.

BTW, Ragip Soylu (usually well-informed, and quoting Mustafa Dzhemilev, one of Ukrainian negotiators), reports that Turkey offered to evacuate the survivors of the Mariupol garrison — and promised to keep them in Turkey until the end of the war.

Moscow refused.

NAVAL

The Russians have so much ‘evacuated’ the Zmiyniy Island in the Black Sea, that they brought in a floating crane, unloaded two air defence systems (unclear if SA-13 or SA-15), and additional supplies there. I.e. the garrison is back to strength. The Ukrainians claimed to have hit several additional Russian Navy warships, including a Dygon-class landing craft Ataman Platov, but there is no confirmation for this. Now for the next round…