Ukraine War, 17–18 May 2022
Good morning everybody!
Good morning everybody!
STRATEGIC
The British media reports that Putin — closely assisted by the Chief-of-General Staff, Valeriy Gerasimov — is meanwhile micromanaging the war in Ukraine at operational and tactical levels all the way down to the level of a brigadier or colonel, i.e. a commander of the battalion tactical group (BTG; which is usually about 700–800 strong). Indeed, Putin should have sidelined Gerasimov and taken matters in Donbass entirely into his own hand, and might have been the actual reason for the catastrophe the RFA experienced while trying to cross the Siversky Donets River.
Early on 18 May, the Chief-of-Staff Territorial Defence of Ukraine announced that 25 out of 32 brigades of the Territorial Defence are meanwhile engaged in combat operations. As can be assessed from dozens of reports, they are far from ‘protecting just the area for which they are responsible’: even if lightly armed, multiple brigades are involved in offensive operations, especially north of Kharkiv.
AIR
Early on 18 May, two Russian missiles targeted Dnipro. One hit a ‘transport infrastructure facility, destroying it’ — apparently Dnipro International Airport — while the other was shot down by air defences: its fragments hit two private homes, injuring a woman. That sounds like a strike by Kh-22s, released by Tu-22M-3s: these missiles are big enough to cause damage even if shot down.
Air raid alert was sounded all over Ukraine, in early evening of 18 May, but the only report about actual attacks came from the Odessa area. A single missile came in from the Black Sea, but appears not to have caused any significant damage or casualties.
The VKS continues flying 250–300 combat sorties a day. Most of these are directed by A-50 SRDLOs (Russian AWACS) against targets in the Donbass area. However, the Russian Air-Space Force continues its efforts to suppress the build-up of Ukrainian air defences between Sumy and Kharkiv, too. Yesterday, it appears to have lost one of involved Su-34 there: there’s no visual evidence, but Kyiv reported it as hit by the 57th Brigade and the intercept of a radio message about the left engine catching fire, and the crew then ejecting.
RUMINT has it that the Ukrainian Air Force might have lost four jets, yesterday and today: reportedly, one was shot down near a place named Tripolye, and another near Kamennaya Yaruga (east of Kharkiv). Two others might have been destroyed in the above-mentioned Russian missile strike on the Dnipro International. Right now, no visual evidence is available, though.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Kharkiv… after bringing in an additional brigade of the Territorial Defence to help secure Ternova, in period 14–16 May, yesterday, Ukrainians have liberated the village of Dementiivka, 7km south of the Russian border.
Perhaps more importantly, there are ever more reports about Ukrainians liberating Zarichne: AFAIK, this place is east of Siversky Donets. With other words: this might indicate that Ukrainians are in the process of establishing a bridgehead south of Vovchansk.
Izium… Ukrainians seem to have forced the RFA out of Dovhenke, then most of reports over the last few days are indicating renewed Russian attacks on that village, and on Bohorodychne, further east. Furthermore, their artillery knocked out a R-330Zh Zhitel electronic warfare system hidden on a farm, and — reportedly — destroyed one of Russian pontoon bridges on Siversky Donets south of Izium.
In the Lyman area… Ukrainian garrison in Oleksandrivka is holding out in the south of that place, but the Russians have captured Novoselivka and Drobysheve north-west of Lyman, and Stavky, north of it, and are thus now only some 2–3km outside the town.
Further south-east… essentially the entire area between Severodonetsk and Popasna is under intense air- and artillery attacks. The intensity of air strikes is such that there are reports the Ukrainian air defences there are constantly active. Contrary to its usual practices, the VKS is targeting not only the frontlines, but also places 10–15km behind, like Bakhmut, where an apartment house was hit on 17 May, killing five civilians (including a two-year-old child).
A new RFA unit has appeared in this area in form of a BTG of the 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. That said, Ukrainians have re-established a solid frontline from the Borova river, down to Metolkine, Voronove, and Borivske.
South of Severodonetsk, the RFA has entered Toskivka, early on 16 May, and then completed the capture of that village, on 17 May.
As reported two days ago, the most critical situation on the frontlines of these days is the one in the Popasna area. Over the last two days, the RFA has captured villages of Toshkivka, Orikhove, and Novozvanivka. Apparently, Ukrainians have reinforced the battered 24th Mech Brigade and the Donbass Battalion there, because the latest reports are indicative of them managing to stop the Russian onslaughts on Pylypchatyne and Trypillya, west of Popasna. ‘Instead’, the RFA then attacked Katerinivka, north-east of Popasna and the northern flank of the 30th Mech Brigade in Troitske (south of Popasna) from the north.
That Popasna is the new Russian Schwerpunkt is obvious from the appearance of the 76th VDV Division, units of the 1st Guards Tank Army equipped with BMPT Terminator-2 tank support combat vehicles, and a BTG of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade equipped with T-80BVM tanks in that area. The 76th is staffed by the best troops the RFA has to offer, while Terminators are armed with — between others — two 30mm 2A42 autocanons, which have already proven as an extremely unpleasant surprise for Ukrainians (thanks to combination of their range and punch). This is certainly an impressive concentration of forces, which must be expected to attack Komyshuvakha as next (is the shortest route towards north, and the frontline on Siversky Donets).
MARIUPOL
According to the Keystone Cops in Moscow, 959 Ukrainians have been evacuated from Azovstal as of yesterday, including 80 wounded, of whom 51 were taken to Novoazovsk Hospital in the occupied part of the Donetsk region. Konashenkov explained they, ‘will be distributed further from Taganrog’. As of this morning, the number was then increased to 1,730. The ICRC reports that all the combatants leaving the Azovstal have been registered: that way they can be tracked and, via the ICRC, should become able to keep in touch with families. Kyiv appears not to comment in this regards: sole exception was the Deputy Chief-of-Staf, Oleksiy Gromov, who observed that, ‘measures are being taken to evacuate our heroes’. While the head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, ‘promised’ to convert the Azovstal complex into a ‘technopark’ for tourists (why not completely demolish the economic centre of the area…?.), the Russians are still shelling some parts of the giant factory, indicating there is still resistance inside. thi was confirmed by Pushilin subsequently saying that more than half of the Ukrainian fighters who were inside the Azovstal have left the plant.
SOUTH
By all the Ukrainian reports about the RFA concentrating for a renewed offensive either on Kryvyi Rih or Zaporizhzhia, the Russians seem to be developing defences in depth all the way from Vysokopillia in the north to Kherson in the south. Moreover, the Keystone Cops in Moscow reported a strong Ukrainian counterattack in the Vishnevoye, south of Zaporizhzhia, on 14 May: this attack should have been repulsed with the loss of about 40 tanks — including several Polish-supplied T-72Ms — and other vehicles. The Russians have shown evidence for destruction of six T-72s (including two visible on video-stills below) and two infantry fighting vehicles.
Interfax-Ukraine reported that a Russian armoured train was blown up in Melitopol: or at least that a locomotive pulling 10 fuel tanks was badly damaged. Earlier, in a similar incident late on 17 May, ‘guerrilla fighters’ reportedly ambushed and killed several RFA officers in the Melitopol area.