Supplement: Russian Missile Strike, 25 June 2022
Now to the next major development…
Now to the next major development…
Between 03.45hrs and 05.30hrs local time, this morning, multiple groups of Russian aircraft underway over Belarus have released at least 30, probably around 40–50 missiles on Ukraine.
According to the Ukrainian Military Intelligence, one of groups included a total of six Russian Tu-22M-3 bombers (reportedly, from Shaykovka AB, in the Kaluga region): they have launched a total of 12 Kh-22s from Belarusian airspace, from an area near Petrykov, near Mozyr. I.e. the aircraft in question flew in direction of Ukrainian airspace while releasing their missiles, but did not enter it before turning away, about 50km short of the border.
I do not know about any confirmation for the following, but additional missiles might have included Iskander quasi-ballistic missiles fired from Belarus at Ukraine.
As far as can be said on basis of Ukrainian sources, the first missiles have reached the air defence zone around 04.15hrs. By then, between 24 and 30 missiles (sources differ) were detected while approaching Zhytomyr Oblast alone. Ukrainian authorities have released next to no details, except that ‘about’ 10 missiles have been shot down, that multiple military bases have been hit, and at least one soldier killed. Photos like those released here are indicating a true ‘missile shoot-out’ (i.e. plenty of missiles being fired by Ukrainian air defences, especially in the Kyiv area).
At least four, some say six missiles are known to have targeted the Yavoriv Training Centre in the Yavoriv district, on the border to Poland: two were shot down.
At least two missiles were shot down over the Khmelnytski area, about 170km south-west of Zhytomyr (city).
Further east, another group of VKS aircraft has released a total of about 20 missiles in direction of the Desna Village, near Chernihiv (apparently the same military base that was targeted several times already).
Finally, Ukrainians report that another formation of Tu-22M-3s has targeted unknown object (some sort of industrial facility?) in Konstantinovka (about 80km west of Donetsk).
This is the kind of operation people like me were expecting the VKS to fly already since the first day of war: an air strike run — gauging by the number of missiles reported by Ukrainians — by something like a squadron of Tu-22M-3s (Zhytomyr direction), and, probably, another squadron, either of Tu-22M-3s or Su-34s (Chernihiv direction). The release of so many missiles is making it sure at least some are going to get through and hit their targets, because air defences are overwhelmed and can’t track and shot down all of them — a least not on time (mind that missiles are moving fast, constantly decreasing the reaction time of the Ukrainian air defences).
(To make sure: Tu-22M-3 is out of production for decades already, and — contrary to what many of Asian social media is reporting this morning — nope, none have been delivered by China to Russia. China has never acquired any Tu-22m-3s. Instead it’s operating — far more advanced, even if much slower, H-6K/N bombers for similar purposes.)
Around the same time, the VSRF/RFA has fired multiple missiles from the Kherson area in direction of Mykolaiv.
Finally, there are sources mentioning an attack by 3M54 Kalibr, sea-launched cruise missiles from the south. Haven’t seen any kind of confirmation for this, yet.