Ukraine War, 23 October 2022
Good morning everybody!
Good morning everybody!
A short update on most important developments of the last two days.
Surovikin’s Missile Offensive
On 19 October, the Russians released a wave of cruise missiles and LPGMs on targets in north-western Ukraine. Ukrainians claimed 12 as shot down, of which 5 in the Kyiv area.
Yesterday, early in the morning, the VKS deployed up to 10 Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers to release up to 18 Kh-101 and Kh-555 cruise missiles. Their strike was combined with the release of at least 6, more likely 8 Kalibr cruise missiles by the Russian warships in the Black Sea.
Ukrainians claimed 13 Kh-101s and Kh-555s as shot down, plus 5 Kalibrs.
In that sense, here few interesting photos and videos from 21 October: Ukrainian Su-27 pursuing a Russian cruise missile, and Ukrainian Su-27 downing a Russian missile in the Odessa area (short-range/high-off-boresight shot with R-73). Pieces of a downed Kh-101.
BTW #1: RUMINT has it Ukrainians have overhauled some of S-75 (ASCC/NATO-codename ‘SA-2 Guideline’) and S-125 (‘SA-3 Goa’) SAM-systems. Both are well-known systems from the late 1950s (perhaps the most famous achievement of the SA-2 is the downing of F.G. Power’s Lockheed U-2, over Sverdlovsk, on 1 May 1960), and have been widely exported. Thus, they are very old but, with suitable upgrades, both can be deployed effectively. After all, Iraqi and Serbian SA-3s were causing problems to the NATO as late as of 1999–2003 (indeed, Serbian SA-3s downed an F-16C and an F-117A in 1999), and an Assadist SA-3 upgraded to the Pechora-2 standard shot down a Turkish RF-4E in 2012.
BTW #2: , Ukrainians claim to have shot down 223 Iranian drones by now. By best will, this is quite a massive exaggeration. For example, there is still no evidence for Tehran delivering more than 90, perhaps 100 Shahed-136 — which is the LPGM the Russians are deploying the most, and Ukrainians are downing in biggest numbers. Confirmed number of downed Shahed-131s and other UAVs of Iranian origin can still be counted on fingers of two hands.
Battle for Donbass
Like every day for at least three months, the Russians are assaulting Bakhmut ‘like there’s no tomorrow’. Indeed, measured by the number of involved combatants — and the Russians killed there — this is likely to become the biggest battle of this war.
Fighting is raging from Soledar and Bakhmutske in the north (where Ukrainians have managed to force the Russians back into the eastern outskirts of Bakhmutske, the last few weeks), down the eastern and southern side of Bakhmut: principally down the T0504 road, in Ivanhrad and Opytne. The ZSU has not only deployed additional units to the area (i.e. the 58th Infantry, 93rd Mech, and 110th TD are not fighting alone), but moved in lots of artillery, and this is reportedly interdicting the movement of Russian reinforcements and supplies all the way back to Popasna. In turn, all of Russian attacks are heavily supported by the VKS: some 16–17 ‘waves’ of ‘spraying and praying’ Su-25s were reported on 21 and 22 October, each.
Battle for Kherson
Amid ‘official silence’ from both sides, and along what can be scrounged from the internet:
Russian ferries in the Nova Kakhovka area are regularly hit by HIMARS (at least there are reports about new strikes, almost every night). On 20 October, one Russian ferry was hit and sunk near Lvove, another — possibly — near the (ruined) Antonovsky Road Bridge.
Since four days, the Russian authorities of the occupied Kherson Oblast are calling for general evacuation of civilians: Ukrainians claim these are evacuated by day, by night there’s a curfew and only military is permitted to move. RUMInT has it that by now the Russian civilian administration, Social Security Council, Pension Fund, and few other institutions have been withdrawn to the eastern side of the Dnipro. Not entirely sure this is truth, however: Putin has — repeatedly — shown absolutely no interest in security of Ukrainian civilians, which leads to the conclusion that the Russians are claiming to be evacuating civilians, in order to lessen Ukrainian pressure upon their ferries. More reliable appear reports about a ‘scorched Earth-style’ withdrawal of Russian forces from different strongholds: local institutions are torched down, private vehicles stolen etc. For example: late on 21 October, an Ukrainian HIMARS-strike on the Antonovsky Bridge is known to have killed a group of Russian propagandists.
On 19 October, ZSU launched a new offensive in north-eastern Kherson. The VKS reacted by air strikes, and one Ka-52 was claimed shot down.
Bad news in regards of Dnipro is that the Russians seem to have managed to finish their barge-bridge constructed ‘in the shadow’ of the Antonovsky Road Bridge. Construction of the same was interrupted by the Ukrainian offensive in September, but seems they have exploited the quiet period of the last two-three weeks to complete it now. Hope, need not explaining that this is going to make the issue of resupplying VSRF troops in Kherson by a magnitude.
That said, the barge-bridge seems to have been hit by HIMARS, yesterday.
On 21 October, around 16.00hrs, ZSU air defences shot down a VKS Su-25 in the Bashtanka area (Mykolaiv Oblast).
Ukrainian ground attacks are supported by 10–14 air strikes by Ukrainian Air Force a day.
Yesterday, 22 October, the GenStab-U announced that the Russians have abandoned two ‘strongholds’ 50km north of Nova Kakhovka: Charivne and Chkalove.
Another Ka-52 attack helicopter was claimed shot down ‘in the Kherson area’, and a Pantsyr SAM-system knocked out in the Nova Kakhovka area.
Hard on the heels of reports about a series of artillery duels in that area, this morning, there are reports that Ukrainians have reached Mylove, on the Dnipro River. Must’ve been the ‘destroyed-destroyed-destroyed’ 128th Mountain, once again (probably in cooperation with the 57th and 60th Brigades). That might be the reason why the VSRF began withdrawing from Charivne and Chkalove: if the ZSU controls Mylove, the two places further north could get cut off.
In the south, on 20 October, heavy fire-fights were reported from the Shumenskiy District of Kherson; on 21–22 October, fighting was reported from the Kosheva area, 4km west/south-west of Kherson. Most likely, additional operations by either Ukrainian special forces or by guerrilla/partisans.
Sadly, though logically, the ZSU advance is coming at price. The video here is shown at least two Ukrainian T-64BVs, one MT-LB, and one BRDM-2 knocked out, abandoned and captured by the Russians.