Ukraine War, 15–16 June, 2022
Good morning everybody!
Good morning everybody!
So…. Another three weeks have passed by, ‘but’ — and contrary to expectations of so many — Ukrainian forces haven’t collapsed. No idea what are all those expecting this to happen going to do as next. I’ll continue with my reviews as often as time permits.
AIR
Despite a red air alert over all of Ukraine during the visit by two bankiers, a lawyer, and a physics teacher to Kyiv yesterday, I found only one report about an air strike: during the night from 15 to 16 June, the Russians hit Sad ‘amalgamated territorial community’ in south-western Sumy, killing four civilians and wounding six others.
Furthermore, the Russians have hit a train carrying humanitarian aid provided by the World World Children Kitchen, underway for Kramatorsk with a load of food for civilians, when this stopped at the Pokrovsk train station, yesterday (apparently by Kh-59).
Over the frontline there was lots of activity by VKS Su-25s and attack helicopters, the last few days: as far as I can say, all still ending with ‘spray and pray’. To make sure: no, neither Su-25, nor any of Russian-operated helicopters has got any kind of fire-control system flying such manoeuvres ‘automatically’: everything is done by the pilot, ‘manually’. And again, if pilot makes a mistake of 0.5 degrees, whether left-right, or up-down, few kilometres per hour faster or slower — the entire volley is missing by a wide margin.
Ukrainians hit back by striking a Russian ammo depot in Krasniy Luch (Khrustalniy) by a Tochka U: this caused secondaries that went on for a full day — most likely ruining much of RFA’s stocks for its offensive in the Bakhmut direction (see below for details).
Furthemore, Ukrainians have shot one Mi-24s, yesterday: first it was reported as felled over the Kherson Oblast, but eventually it turned out that it was shot down by a FIM-92 Stinger, fired by Azov, somewhere in the Donbass.
Just in: early this morning, a Russian Su-25 hit the high tension lines south of Belogorod, in Russia, and crashed. Slightly later, a Russian Tu-22M-3 bomber hit either the Ekvator Works (cooling equipment) or the Crystal Works (no longer working; used as offices) in the the industrial district of Mykolaiv — with two Kh-22 missiles.
First reports are indicating one civilian killed and six wounded — all in an adjacent apartment building. The video below is shown the administration building of the Crystal Works: the missile hit somewhere behind it.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Kharkiv…. Not certain if anything ‘big’ is going on there, as claimed by the Russians: indeed, they claimed a lot, the last few days: first that ‘the RFA is actively attacking’ then a ‘major offensive’ — as a result of which Ukrainians turned out to have liberated Sosnikva and Shopyne. Primary problem for Ukrainians is the Russian artillery deployed north of the border: Kyiv is reluctant to strike there.
Svitlodarsk-Sloviansk…Two days ago, the Russians took Bohorodichne: Ukrainians then hit them in the flank from the south, decimating another BTG (third in four days, in this area alone). As usually, this seem to have been a nocturnal operation spearheaded by the special forces: something the Russians do not like the least. I assess Bohorodichne as ‘contested’ (again) — and think it’s speaking volumes that Ukrainians are running a counterattack into the middle of a ‘major’ RFA offensive (major under apostrophes, because the RFA is so obviously short on troops for anything more than attacks on frontlines of 2–4km). ‘Instead’, the Russians meanwhile claim to have entered Dolyna… Well, they might have done that — only to get hit by several formations of Ukrainian Su-25s…
In this area, it’s the terrain that’s causing massive problems to the Russians: lots of low hills, plenty of depressions and ponds used by Ukrainians to take cover, lots of forests and little lakes, and all of this surrounded by low trees and bush: perfect ‘ambush country’.
Severodonetsk…the Russians continue claiming to have isolated 500–2,500 Ukrainian (and foreign) troops in the Azot Works, even more so because they say they have dropped the third and last bridge to Lysychansk and then took two US combatants as Prisoners of War. Gauging by how much of Severodonetsk, Metolkine and Borivske are Ukrainians ‘still’ holding, my impression is that Ukrainians there do not feel isolated, though. Of course, once this will be over, there will be nothing left of the town to describe it as such…
Popasna Bulge… The RFA is on attack in this area again. On the western side, the Russians are back to claiming to have cut off the T1302 road. There’s no evidence for this, though: at most, they have been pushed another few hundreds of metres away from it. In the north, on 14 June, the Russians seem to have, finally, secured Komyshuvakha, at least its south-western side. Then they continued in northern direction: by the morning of 16 June, 11th ‘Vostok’ Regiment of the DNR claimed to have captured Vurbivka (hard on the heels of another massive artillery barrage, of course). As of this morning, this appears confirmed. They also claimed to be short of closing the ‘sack’ around the Ukrainian TD battalion in Zolote: haven’t found any evidence for this. On the contrary, the RFA and Wagner have a problem alone with securing Katerynivka and Berzeivske.
Overall, this is all like ping pong — some of places have changed hands 3–4 times, the last 3–4 weeks — though with lives of plenty of young people, plenty of expensive equipment, and the future of entire villages…
To me it appears the situation is much more serious further south: in the Svitlodarsk area. Three days ago, the Russians did breach the Ukrainian frontline along the M03 highway: attacking from Ilovaisk and Vidrodzhennya, they pushed south over the highway and were stopped only after taking Vershyna. With this they were in the back of the section of the LOC north of Horlivka, which they claim to have attacked from the south, too, in direction of Zaitseve, Travneve, and Dolomitne. No doubt, Ukrainian units east of Bakhmut were still much too thin — and thus had to abandon positions that held for eight years in order to avoid an encirclement. New frontline is meanwhile under construction stretching from Pokrovske to Zaitseve — which in turn means that the Vuhlehirska Tes power plant is under the Russian control, too.
Now, why is this as important? Because it’s securing a stretch of a double-track railway from Popasna to Horlivka, thus greatly increasing the Russian capability to resupply their troops in this area. Obviously, now it’s on Ukraine to find the troops and rapidly bolster that part of the frontline — probably by weakening their dispositions somewhere else, which, I guess, is precisely what the Russians were hoping to achieve with this operation.
SOUTH
The Ukrainian front-wide-offensive has so far recovered Soldatske, Pravdyne and Oleksandrivka. So much is confirmed. What is not yet confirmed is a possible Russian counterattack aiming to cut off the Ukrainian attack from Oleksandrivka to Stanislav (both in the south, along the sea coast).
BLACK SEA
Ukrainians are reporting a BGM-84 Harpoon-strike on a Russian tugboat Vasiliy Beh, somewhere in north-western Black Sea, this morning.