Ukraine War, 26–27 March, 2022

Good morning everybody!

Good morning everybody!

This is going to be my first summary on the Ukrainian War posted on Medium.com, and ‘only’ linked to the FB — and it’s going to cover the last 48 hours, i.e. 26 and 27 Mar 22.

(My earlier coverage of this war can be found on my Facebook Account, and, as usual for so many other wars fought over the last 23 years, though for registered users only, on ACIG.info forum.)

Abbreviations

CAA — Combined Arms Army (Russia)

CO — commanding officer

BTG — Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)

GCAA — Guards Combined Arms Army (Russia)

GIAP — Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment (Russia)

GMRD — Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)

GTA — Guards Tank Army (Russia)

GTD — Guards Tank Division (Russia)

GTR — Guards Tank Regiment (Russia)

HQ — headquarters

IFV — infantry fighting vehicle

Keystone Cops in Moscow — Ministry of Defence (Russia)

LOC — Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)

MANPAD — man-protable air defence system

MBT — main battle tank

Mech — Mechanised Brigade (Ukraine)

MRB — Motorized Rifle Brigade

MRD — Motorized Rifle Division

People in Need of Fresh Air — Pentagon (USA)

PGM — precision guided munition

RFA — Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces

RF-9xxxx — Russian military aviation registration

UAF — Ukrainian armed Forces

UCAV — unmanned combat aerial vehicle

VDV — Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)

VKS — Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)

West OSK — Western Military District, RFA

STRATEGIC

Social media is abuzz with RUMINT along which the Russian negotiators, ‘do not demand Ukraine to be denazified any more’, but ‘only’ demand Kyiv not to join the NATO — in exchange for security guarantees and EU-membership. Certainly enough, even Zelensky has (once again) signalled his readiness to compromise on Ukraine’s neutral status. However, I doubt this is going to work: as described in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko I’ve posted yesterday on the Facebook, alone removing the intention to join the NATO from the Ukrainian Constitution is entirely impossible as long as emergency law is in force (and I doubt Zelensky is going to change this as long as there are any Russian troops left in Ukraine). Moreover, the last I’ve heard, Putin said to his chief negotiator, Roman Abramovich, to forward his ‘personal message’ to Zelensky (quote): ‘I’m going to eradicate Ukraine. Eradicate it’.

The Railway War in Belarus is going on: the second train carrying RFA equipment was derailed within only three days. Sadly, it remains unknown exactly where. The authorities are arresting and interrogating employees.

On the other hand: over the last few days, a series of Russian cruise-missile strikes destroyed much of Ukrainian strategic reserves of fuel, many of factories necessary to repair damaged weapons, and several of ammunition depots. RUMINT has it that — together with losses in heavy equipment — this already has its effects on the capability of the Ukrainian Army to run large-scale offensive operations.

AIR

Yesterday in the morning, the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed the destruction of four Ukrainian Su-24s in the Chernihiv area (incl. one near Repka and one near Gorodnya), and the downing of one Ukrainian Su-27 near Kramatorsk.

Brief analysis: Ukrainian Su-24s active over Chernihiv…? That’s highly interesting. Especially considering the Keystone Cops have claimed the destruction of 90% of the Ukrainian Air Force, two weeks ago; and then the destruction of more of Ukrainian combat aircraft than the UkAF used to have before the war…

Ah yes, and they claimed the destruction of 19 Ukrainian UAVs, yesterday, too. The latter alone is not only an insane number: me thinks, it’s indicating the Ukrainian deployment of loitering precision guided ammunition, which is surely no good news for the Russians.

A Su-30SM of the VKS was shot down near Izium. The Sukhoi-pilot, Colonel Sergey Kosyk, was captured alive; fate of his navigator/bombardier remains unknown. Kosyk served in Syria while his unit, 14 GIAP from Kursk AB, was still equipped with MiG-29s, back in 2017. Under interrogation, he has ‘confirmed’: the VKS is ‘bombing coordinates’, exactly as described already weeks ago…

But, ‘don’t worry’: the VKS is said to have been reinforced meanwhile. RUMINT has it, all four Armenian Su-30MKs and their crews have been sent to participate in the aggression on Ukraine, about two weeks ago. Accordingly, the aircraft have been integrated into one of Su-30-equipped units of the VKS. Not sure if the same could be valid for their crews, though: due to the lack of money, they’ve received only minimal training at home (have got their air-to-air missiles only the last year).

Of course, Armenians are (fiercely) denying all such reports.

Finally, there’s a lots of talk about the delivery of British-made Starstreak MANPADs to Ukraine, these days. Got no confirmation, but ‘that feeling’ tells me these were delivered already weeks ago: it simply takes time to train their operators, because Starstreaks are hard to master.

NORTH

The West OSK brought in a new CO for the battered 35th and 36th CAAs, north west of Kyiv: Colonel-General Aleksander Chayko was flown in all the way from the Eastern Military District to regroup at least the 35th CAA in the Chernobyl area, pending resumption of offensive operations north-west of Kyiv. The video here is, supposedly, shown the arrival of fresh VDV units in that part of Ukraine, too.

Perhaps Chayko was assigned to the West OSK much too late? It is now confirmed that yesterday, 27 Mar, the Ukrainians have recovered all of Irpin, and then pushed on Bucha, where fighting is in full swing.

(Please mind: Irpin is still much too dangerous for any civilians to return. This is unlikely to change any time soon.)

NORTH-EAST

Reportedly, the Russian troops have left the town of Slavutych, on 26 Mar, but ‘remain in the vicinity’. Perhaps the 41st CAA has not enough troops to garrison it?

Chernihiv remains under vicious air- and artillery bombardment. Reportedly, up to 200 civilians are killed every day.

When it comes to the situation further south, and then from eastern Kyiv and Brovary to Sumy…

While the Ukrainian GenStab was claiming that it repelled an attack of the 90th TD in direction of Brovary, on 27 Mar, to me it appears as if units of the 2nd GCAA — deployed further south-east, foremost along the H-07 highway — were in the process of ‘melting away’, the last two days. Sure, at least two BTGs of the 90th GTD were still along the M-01 highway in the north, but further east it seems that most of the 2nd GMRD has ‘disappeared’: that division is not where it used to be (along the H-07). Or, better said: the Ukrainians are where the Russians were only some 4-5 days ago. They (plus the Georgian Legion), are capturing plenty of lonesome Russian troops left behind in different villages along the H-07 — and that all the way from Hoholiv to at least Lukyanivka, perhaps even to Pryluky (which remains under Ukrainian control). That would mean: if there’s still any coherent Russian frontline in this part of Ukraine left, then somewhere between Bohdanivka on M-01/E-95 and… perhaps, but not sure: Nova Basan; more likely: Brahyntsi (10km north of Nova Basan).

Romny also remains under Ukrainian control: I’m only not sure how much of the H-07 between Romny and Sumy is still under Russian control (if at all): if it is not, the Ukrainians could drive from Romny all the way to Konotop….?

Further east….the condition of the 1st GTA appears to be similar to that of the 2nd GCAA. Ukrainians report the CO 13th TR (4th GTD) committed suicide on 26 Mar: on the same day, they have lifted the siege of Lebedyn, then punched north from Okhtyrka and re-opened the H-12 highway all the way to Sumy (reportedly, the road is thus free all the way to Poltava in the south!). Further east, the Ukrainians have liberated Velyka Pysarvika, on the border to Russia, and were advancing along the P45, via Mezenivka to Krasnopilya, both of which were liberated — and that already two days ago. That means: deep through the southern flank of the 4th GTD, 47th GTD, 27th GMRB, and all the way into what used to be the rear of the 2nd GMRD! I really have a problem to believe it, but it’s confirmed. Indeed, between 26 and 27 Mar, Sumy experienced its first ‘quiet’ night (no shelling) since the start of the war.

Mind: this all means that there is something like ‘complete collapse’ of two Russian armies on a stretch of nearly 300 km between eastern Kyiv and the Russian border. That the 2nd GCAA and the 1st GTA have suffered extensive losses early during the war is well-known, but sorry: I have seen no evidence for both of these being ‘completely destroyed’. That would take the deployment of much more massive and much faster Ukrainian forces than we get to see there (lots of infantry). Instead, I remain at the conclusion that the Russians are in the process of withdrawing back towards the border, i.e. re-shuffling their units out of north-eastern Ukraine and then to the south, as described earlier, and that the Ukrainians are trying to follow, but only occasionally catching some of Russian rear-guard.

In the Kharkiv area, the Ukrainians have liberated Vilkhivka, north-east of the city, on 26 Mar.

South-east of Kharkiv…. Here I’m not sure any more what exactly is going on. After forcing the Ukrainian 81st Airborne to withdraw from Izium, two days ago, and then reinforcing the 144th MRD through addition of a Naval Infantry Brigade (either the 155th of the Pacific Fleet or a similar unit from the Baltic Fleet?), and elements of the 1st GTA, on 26, the Russians first appeared to be making good advance from Kamyanka in direction of Barvinkove….but, then…. no idea: except for indicating vivid aerial activity, both sides fell silent. All I can write right now is that the Ukrainians took photos of one of two pontoon bridges in the Siversky area, from about 100–150m away, in damaged condition, with semi-sunken armoured vehicles — and quite a lots of shell-craters — next to it. Perhaps the 92nd Mech drove all the way into the Russian back, thus collapsing the advance of the 144th…?

EAST

The Russians are shelling Rubizhne and Severodonetsk like all day for nearly five weeks now. No change in that area. However, south-west of Horlivka, they are meanwhile attacking Panteleimonikva on the road to Kramatorsk. That remains bad news for the Ukrainians: regardless how well-organised and fortified ‘in depth’, their defence line is penetrated here, and they’ll have to find a way to stop this.

Ukrainians are reporting better news from the Vuhledar area: i.e. their GenStab claims a Russian attack on this important town was repelled.

SOUTH

The last two days, General Mizintsev (CO 8th CAA) continued pushing the Chechens and Rosgvardia troops from the east into the Azovstal Factory. Kadyrov appeared in Mariupol, apparently to bolster the morale of his troops there, while the Azov Regiment is reporting ‘ruthless’ combat, indicating heavy losses on both sides. That said, its Chief-of-Staff, Captain Bohdan Krotevych said the garrison is holding out, and I’ve found no confirmation for the Russians making any significant gains over the last two days.

Seemingly, no big news from the Kherson area. Only reports about VKS aircraft flying reconnaissance all the way to Odessa. Infiltrations of the Ukrainian infantry in direction of the city now seem to be the biggest problem for the 49th CAA, rendering it incapable of running offensive operations.