Ukraine War, 21–22 April 2022
Good morning everybody!
Good morning everybody!
Here’s my review of most important developments in Ukraine for 21 and 22 April 2022.
CAA — Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG — Battalion Tactical Group (700–800 troops, Russia)
CBU — cluster bomb units
GCAA — Guards Combined Arms Army (Russia)
GMRD — Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)
GTA — Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD — Guards Tank Division (Russia)
Keystone Cops in Moscow — Ministry of Defence (Russia)
KIA — killed in action
LOC — Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass)
MBT — main battle tank
Mech — Mechanised Brigade (Ukraine)
MIA — missing in action
MRB — Motorised Rifle Brigade (Russia)
MRD — Motorised Rifle Division (Russia)
PMC — private military company/contractor
POL — petrol, oil, lubricants
RFA — Russian Federation Army
South OSK — Southern Military District (Russia)
Tank — Tank Brigade (Ukraine)
TR — Tank Regiment (Russia)
VKS — Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space force, Russia)
STRATEGIC
The pro-Kremlin media outlet Readovka posted — and then quickly removed -a report according to which the Keystone Cops in Moscow listed the number of their KIA with 13,414, with another 7,000 ‘missing in action’. Along the same report, 116 sailors of Moskva were confirmed as KIA, with over 100 still missing. The report was quickly deleted, but somebody saved it for the public (see attachment). Notable is: the combined figure of the KIA and MIA is very close to 20,000, recently claimed by the Ukrainian authorities.
The TASS then published a statement by Major-General Rustam Minnekaev, Deputy Commander of the Central OSK, according to which Russia is now ‘officially’ involved in a land-grab. After stressing the Russian superiority over the Ukrainian Armed Forces on land, sea and airspace, Minnekaev went on to explain that the battle for the control of southern Ukraine is a battle for establishing a land corridor to Transnistria. Indeed, he went on to state, quote, ‘Russia is now at war with all of Europe, the whole world is against us….they never liked Russia’. Therefore, the Russian invasion forces are going to establish a land corridor through southern Ukraine to Transnistria. Of course, the reason Minnekaev gave is the ‘oppression against the Russian-speaking population of Transnistria’.
The (Russian) Pravda went to some extension to ‘describe, closely’, what Russia says it’s going to take away from Ukraine.
This prompted lots of debate: I consider it for a mix of PRBS and Maskirovka. After all, not only that Minnekaev knows (or at least should know) what kind of losses is the RFA suffering in Ukraine, and he still explained that they’re suffering no losses at all, but the Keystone Cops have a crucial interest in keeping the Ukrainian GenStab at its toes — and preventing it from deploying additional reinforcements to the Donbass Front.
If this helps preventing Ukrainians from reinforcing their troops in the Donbass, then fine for Moscow — then despite moving additional units to Ukraine, as announced few days ago, it continues having massive problems with the lack of troops. According to the People in Need of Fresh Air, the total strength of the RFA in Ukraine has reached 78 BTG as of yesterday. That’s as far as the official Russian Army goes. Word is, there are between 10,000 and 20,000 of foreign mercenaries deployed with the RFA in Ukraine, though.
On 21 and 22 April, several big fires erupted in Russia:
- Tver Military Facility (missile development facility)
- Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant (one of key suppliers of propellants for the Russian military)
- another fire wrecked much of the TsNIIMash (the primary rocket and spacecraft scientific centre of the Roskosmos in Korolyov
- and yes another wrecked the local college.
Don’t ask me about reasons, please: I’ve got no idea. I do find it interesting that four big fires have wrecked four facilities important for the Russian defence industry on the same day, though.
AIR
21 April was another day confirming further improvement of Ukrainian air defences. Essentially, multiple different types of MANPADS are now available in large numbers ‘everywhere’ along the Donbass frontline, and the teams operating them are regularly taking Russian fliers by surprise.
Ukrainians claimed two VKS jets shot down on 21 April. One was a Su-34 shot down by the 93rd Brigade in the Izium area, apparently by a Strela MANPAD. It came down behind the Russian lines, but there’s a video nicely shown two parachutes. The same unit then claimed a Su-25, too, while the Ukrainian GenStab then added the downing of a Russian Su-35, but I haven’t seen evidence for the two (at least not yet).
In the Zaporozhye area, the 81st Airmobile Brigade shot down a Mi-8, and then another one as this approached to rescue the crew of the downed one, plus a Ka-52 that was providing top cover. Gauging by what can be seen on the videos, all were felled by Strelas.
Overall, the Ukrainians claimed to have shot down three jets (Su-34, Su-35, and Su-25), three helicopters (two Mi-8 and a Ka-52) and 9 Russian UAVs on 21 April (of the latter, visually confirmed is an Orlan-10, shot down in the Trotskoe area by a Starstreak).
Around 19.55hrs of 21 April, three Russian cruise missiles hit the railway infrastructure in Novomoskovsk district (Dnipropetrovsk): as far as is known, the railway was cut off, requiring repairs. Two other missiles were aimed at the Preobrazhenskyi Bridge, in Zaporozhye. Both missed: one exploded closely enough to shatter windows on a train passing by, the other demolished a sanatorium on the island of Khortytsia.
On 22 April, two Russian missiles hit unknown objects in Druzhkivka and Dopropillia, north of Rodynske, and another hit a garage for agricultural vehicles in the Synelnykove area, in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
An An-26 medium transport crashed near Mykhailivka, in the Zaporozhye area around 09.00hrs on Friday (22 April), after hitting power lines while underway at a very low altitude. One crewmember was killed, two others badly wounded.
BATTLE FOR DONBASS
North of Izium, the 92nd Mech seems to have withdrawn from Shevchenkove back to Bazaliivka and Lebyazhe.
South of Izium, and following heavy artillery barrages, the Russians attempted to continue their advance on Hrushuvakha and Barvinkove, but were stopped near Zavody and Diborvne — primarily by artillery of the 93rd Mech, which demolished much of two convoys that tried to advance (here’s the second).
East of Oskil River, the Russians captured Lozove and Zelena Dolyna, on 21 April, and then reached Rubsti and Yatskivka.
Heavy fighting — but no details — have been reported for Zarichne and Torske (where the Russians captured at least one Ukrainian T-64, and significant amounts of anti-tank weapons). The only other ‘detail’ from this area I’ve got is that the Russians seem to have attempted to cross the Siversky Donets River in this sector, but were repelled, on 21 April.
The Ukrainians have counterattacked in Rubizhne, on 21 April: their artillery scored few very precise hits and for a while it looked as if they have managed to push the Russians out, but as of this morning, the town seems to still be largely under the Russian control. That said, a sizeable chunk of Rubizhne must still be under Ukrainian control, too, then otherwise the Russians wouldn’t shell it heavily, like they did yesterday, and this morning again.
Of course, the Russians also shelled Severodonetsk and Hirske, the last two days, and repeatedly attempted to storm the Ukrainian positions there. Slavyansk was repeatedly hit by the VKS, which deployed dozens of cluster bomb units there. The situation remained ‘hot’ in Popasna: in the latter, on 21 April, Ukrainians ambushed and wiped out an entire squad of about 20–25 combatants from Libya and/or Syria, deployed to reinforce the battered BTG of the 102nd MRR (from the 150th MRD). Gauging by videos released by Kadyrov’s Chechens, they’re now deployed in the Popasna area, too. Ukrainian sources are reporting a ‘complicated’ situation, but providing no details.
MARIUPOL
Following Shoygu’s report about ‘liberation’ of Mariupol, and ‘Putin’s order’ to ‘just’ block the remaining defenders inside Azvostal, the Keystone Cops are now demonstratively withdrawing their troops from the city (indeed, characters like ‘WarGonzo’ are in outright delirium while reporting about this).
Actually, the fighting over Azovstal went on: over the last two days, the RFA continuously bombed and shelled the area: and, of course, the much-announced ‘humanitarian corridor’ and ‘evacuation’ didn’t work at all. Mere 80 Ukrainian civilians have managed to escape the city to Zaporozhye, on 21 April.
SOUTH
In the south, the 58th CAA was shelling the full length of the Ukrainian frontline, from Zaporozhye to Vuhledar, on 21 April, and then assaulted in several directions: on Hulaipole, on Velyka Novosilka (where it should have captured 3–5 villages), and Zelene Pole, west of Marinka. By now, it’s clear they’ve captured Temyrivka and entered Malynivka.
Further west, the frontlines of the 49th CAA were largely quiet, the last few days. That is: except for RFA pushing the Ukrainians out of Stanislav and launching a minor attack on Trudoliubivka (north of Kherson) — the latter was quickly repelled — sometimes in the last few days, and then taking over the control over several villages behind the frontline from legal Ukrainian civilian authorities. Mykolaiv was hit by a volley of BM-21 Grad MRLS, on 21 April, while Oleksandrivka (or what was left of it) now appears to be under Ukrainian control.