Ukraine War, 19 December 2022
Hello everybody!
Hello everybody!
A short review of latest news for today…
AIR/MISSILE WARFARE
The last night, the Russians launched their biggest strike ever using Iranian-made Shahed-131/136 LPGMs, ‘only’. According to Ukrainian sources, no less than 33 or 35 were launched, all from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov. One passed straight over the Pivdennoukrainsk NPP while underway in north-western direction: eventually, 30 were claimed as shot down by manned interceptors and ground-based air defences. The three or five survivors have hit infrastructure facilities in the Kyiv area. As a result, three persons were wounded, multiple houses damaged, and three districts of the city left without electricity…
The VKS is down to flying about 120 combat sorties a day; the Ukrainian air force is up to flying up to 21–22 air strikes a day by fighter-bombers, and a similar number by helicopters. The Russians claim to have shot down an Ukrainian helicopter in the Pervomaiske area: reportedly, it was felled by the 11th Regiment DNR-Militia, using an ATGM.
Athens seems to be ready to deliver its S-300 system to Ukraine — of course, IF the USA first deliver a Patriot system, instead. At least Zakharova was hyper-ventilating in protest over this decision that’s ‘threatening the peaceful people of Donbas, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson’, she said.
(I’m only sad she didn’t find the time to ask the actual question troubling her mind for months already: how can brotherly Greeks do such a thing like help Ukro-Nazis fight the Russian allies of the IRGC and Hezbollah…)
For the end of this section, a good thread on the Orlan-10 by RUSI.
JDAM FOR UKRAINE?
Reportedly, the USA are about to deliver JDAM-type satellite-guided ammo to Ukraine. This is not a bad idea….actually, it is an excellent idea, which is why I cannot but wonder how comes it wasn’t realised already months ago.
JDAM stands for Joint Direct Attack Munition. The essence of the system is conversion of ‘dumb’ bombs of the US-design from the Mk.80-series (see: Mk.81 of 125kg; Mk.82 of 227kg; Mk.83 of 454kg; and Mk.84 of 907kg) into satellite-guided precision weapons, in a simple and surprisingly-cheap way (a single kit goes at as little as US$30,000). Thanks to their modular design, each Mk.80-series dumb bomb can be equipped with a new rear section with navigational module and steering fins. A second kit — wrapped around the centre body of the bomb — is adding small wings, which are adding some to their range.
JDAMs are relatively cheap, reliable, and highly adaptable, and — also because types like Su-24 and Su-25 have been designed with the use of Western-made munition in mind — should be ‘easy’ to add to fighter-bombers in service in Ukraine (mind: between others, ‘even’ the Sudanese have adapted their Su-24Ms for deployment of North Korean-made satellite-guided bombs based on the JDAM-design already some seven years ago).
The sole limiting factor for their application would be the number of hardpoints per aircraft. That said, and for example… An aircraft as big as Su-24M has lots of hardpoints, several of which can be equipped with dual hardpoints or with multiple ejector racks. One way or the other, the type can load some 11–12 GBU-38/54s (that’s the Mk.82-based JDAM). Each JDAM can be set to target a different aiming point. Now put that jet down to 20 metres altitude, accelerate it to 1,000km/h (or faster), then let it enter a max-power, 4-g-climb and release all these bombs, before making a hard turn to get down towards the ground for cover — and all of that without having to cross the actual frontline…. i.e. let it fly almost the same manoeuvre like during all the ‘spray and pray’ air strikes flown by Ukrainians and Russians so far, but the mass of which was, and remains, entirely ineffective.
The difference is: this time, a volley of 11–12 precisely-guided bombs would strike 11–12 selected targets — instead of ‘anything in that approximate direction’…
Arguably, the range of a JDAM is much shorter if the weapon is released from low altitude: probably down to 4–7km. This is much shorter than 20–30km when JDAMs are released from high altitude. However, nobody sane is flying at more than 20 metres altitude in this war (at least not within some 30–40km from the frontline: the latter is covered by much too many SAM-systems). Foremost, these 4–7km would still be perfectly enough to hit what counts: the Russian artillery.
With other words: a single Su-24M could — in theory, and provided all the weapons would function as advertised — obliterate an entire artillery battery of the VSRF with a single blow. Or two Su-25s would accomplish about the same. And that at a friction of the cost of a single volley from M142 HIMARS.
….all provided the USA (and allies) might
a) provide JDAMs,
b) provide enough bombs from the Mk.80-series, and
c) enough JDAM-kits for the Ukrainian Air Force to deploy these ‘by hundreds’…
BATTLE FOR DONBASS
Kupyansk-Svatove… The ZSU is shelling and roaming Pershotravneve, Sofyivka, and Vilshana. With other words: nothing really new here.
Kremina…turned out, the Russians did not manage to push the ZSU out of Chervonopopovka, after all: on the contrary, meanwhile their 30th Motor Rifle and BARS-20 were forced to withdraw to Holykove.
Bakhmut…. On the northern flank, and during their last mass attack, on 15 December, the Russians have managed to overrun the southern part of Yakovlivka: some of Wagner-gang even took photos of itself in the local centre (see below), in turn prompting claims along which the village was a complete loss for Ukraine. No doubt, that would’ve been bad, for it would open a wide gap in the ZSU positions and enable the Russians to attack Soledar, and thus Bakhmut from the north. Eventually, it turned out that the garrison of the 10th Mountain held out in the northern part of the village: meanwhile was reinforced by elements of the 109th TD and the 128th Mountain brigades. The fighting is raging back and forth…
In between Soledar and Bakhmut, the Russians spent the last three-four days assaulting Pidhorodne, once again. So far, without any kind of success: actually, gauging by reports about the fighting for the gas station south of that village, it could be it’s Ukrainians who are counterattacking.
On the eastern side of Bakhmut, the 71st Jäger has pushed the Wagner further east, down the Maksymenka Street towards the Industrial Zone, and the Russians have withdrawn from the garbage dump (abandoned by Ukrainians over a week ago). Guess, the position was not that ideal, after all.
On the southern side, word is that the ZSU has managed to kick the remaining Russians out of Opytne, and then so much so, some say the VSRF and Wagner are on the brink of abandoning their attempts to take Bakhmut. ‘Nevertheless’, Wagner continued pumping its convicts into new massacres as they attempted to advance from Zelenopillia, Kurdiumivka, and Ozarianivka over that channel whose name I’m always forgetting, towards west. Considering the other side is defended by the 52nd Moto and 62nd Mech Brigades — i.e. that it’s an idea that would actually require at least the equal number of troops to realise…. This is bold, but completely useless, too: in this fashion, I doubt they would reach the ‘border of DNR’ even in 100 years…
Atop of this, it seems that most of available M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS’ of the ZSU are meanwhile ‘somewhere in the Bakhmut area’, because there’s about a dozen of reports about their activity of the last night. Targets included at least four Russian ammunition depots, several troop-concentration areas, and two check points. A day before, strikes on five troop-concentration points, one field headquarters and one ammunition depot were reported.
Toretsk… there was a new, but rather lame Russian attack from Maiorsk on Druzhba, back on 16 or 17 December, but this was quickly repelled by the 36th Marine and the 5th Assault Regiment, ZSU.
Pisky-Pervomaiske… The Russians continued pushing on Vodiane, without success. On Pervomaiske, without success. And on Nevelske, without success.
Marinka… heavy fighting was reported from the centre and east of centre of this village. Nominally at least it’s the Separatists — reinforced by VSRF troops — who are assaulting but, frankly, no idea any more: too many claims and counterclaims. BTW, vivid activity of Ukrainian multiple rocket launch systems is reported from this area, too. With other words: the Russians haven’t got it easy even ‘in this corner’ of the frontline any more.
South of Marinka, the Russians launched at least one attack in direction of Pobeda, the last two days, but the 79th Air Assault sent them running back for their positions.
The situation is similar in the Novomykhalivka and Vuhledar areas.