Ukraine War, 2–3 April 2022

Good afternoon everybody!

Good afternoon everybody!

Sorry for being late, today, but mind: I’ve got my ‘job’ to do, too.

Here my summary for the last two days of the Ukraine War,

CAA — Combined Arms Army (Russia)

BTG — Battalion Tactical Group (700–800 troops, Russia)

CBU — cluster bomb units

GCAA — Guards Combined Arms Army (Russia)

GMRD — Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)

GTA — Guards Tank Army (Russia)

GTD — Guards Tank Division (Russia)

Keystone Cops in Moscow — Ministry of Defence (Russia)

LOC — Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass)

MBT — main battle tank

Mech — Mechanised Brigade (Ukraine)

MRB — Motorised Rifle Brigade (Russia)

MRD — Motorised Rifle Division (Russia)

PMC — private military company/contractor

RFA — Russian Federation Army

South OSK — Southern Military District (Russia)

VKS — Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space force, Russia)

West OSK — Western Military District (Russia)

STRATEGIC

During the night from 1 to 2 Apr, the 35th CAA and the 36th CAA of the Russian Federation Army have completely vacated all of their positions north of Kyiv, and withdrew to Belarus. The Kyiv Oblast was thus liberated….only for the Ukrainians to find the Russians leaving behind hundreds of disabled vehicles, at least as many bodies of their dead troops, widespread destruction of towns and villages north-west of Kyiv (70–80% of Irpin and Bucha are completely destroyed and uninhabitable), and scenes of multiple massacres of civilians. Investigations into the later have been initiated, but it’s going to take some time to find out all the details — and all the bodies. So far, the authorities of Bucha have found about 410, many killed with their hands tied to the back, with a single shot in the head (and including over 200 buried in a single mass grave)…

Tragically, this is just the first piece of evidence for what is rumoured already since weeks: that Putin’s ‘de-nazification’ of Ukraine contains methods remarkably similar to Nazi treatment of the Ukrainian population back in 1941–1944 period… What is worse: we have to expect even more of such behaviour further east and south in Ukraine. This is unsurprising considering the Russian deployment of poorly prepared, outright frustrated regular military forces, but especially such para-military gangs like Rosgvardia, Wagner PMC, and FSB: all are known to be ‘raiding’ places like Kherson, Melitopol and others, on ‘search’ for long lists of Ukrainian politicians, journalists, and activists for weeks.

Of course, the Keystone Cops in Moscow were as ‘surprised’ as in denial of any kind of responsibility for massacres of civilians. They say, their troops have withdrawn already on 31 March, and thus all the casualties — so also civilians shot into the heads, while having their hands tied to their backs, and that between 1 and 3 April — were all caused by Ukrainian shelling… while Kremlin then demanded a meeting of the UN Security Council to, ‘discuss the provocation of Ukrainian radicals in Bucha’…

Think, it would be about the time to actually kick Russia out of UN. Then they can demand meetings as much as they like.

Namely, I’ve got no doubt: Putin is not the least concerned by his, or Russia’s public image anymore, and not going to accept any kind of a defeat. He (still) didn’t announce general mobilisation (doing so would be extremely costly, and making his position uncertain), but is doing something similar — on a much-limited scale. For example, after the false-flag attack on that oil storage dump outside Belogorod, three days ago, the local authorities have imposed martial law, and began mobilising reservists. Similarly, there is a mobilisation of about 60,000 reservists in Krasnodar, Dagestan, Ingushetia, and the Perm Oblasts. Notably, these are some of poorest parts of Russia: seems, the recruiters there are motivating people by offering them prospects of looting Ukraine…

AIR

The Russians have intensified their ballistic- and cruise-missile onslaught on the strategic infrastructure facilities all over western, central, and southern Ukraine. The authorities in Kyiv have imposed strict control over the release of related information, but as far as can be said, over the last two days, the Russians have blown up the refinery and the crude oil storage facilities in Odessa, and crude oil storage facilities in Ternopil, Rivne, and Mykolaiv. Furthermore, they have attempted to strike the air defence command centre at Vasilikoy AB, and the Balovne airport outside Mikolayiv.

The VKS continues flying about 300 combat sorties a day, but now mostly by night. Seems, jets of the Ukrainian Air Force have dragged some of its Su-35s into a SAM-trap, and one was shot down in the Izium area, yesterday.

NORTH

With the complete Russian withdrawal from the area west of Dnepr and north- and west from Kyiv, and the Ukrainian units reaching the border to Belarus, the fighting on this frontline is over. Recovery and reconstruction of the area is likely to take a decade (or longer), though…

NORTH-EAST

On 2 April, the Ukrainian 1st Tank Brigade, reinforced by several units of the Territorial Defence, continued liberating villages south and south-west of Chernihiv, before swinging north-west. However, instead of offering its usual, bitter resistance, the 41st CAA then rapidly withdrew towards north, into Belarus. Moreover, in the aftermath of the rapid withdrawal of the 2nd GCAA along the M02 to the eastern side of the Konotop area, the road connection between Chernihiv and Kyiv was re-established by the end of the same day. As far as I can say, except for few stragglers (and plenty of battlefield wreckage and bodies), there is not one Russian soldier left in all of Ukraine north and east of Chernihiv, all the way to Shostka (where the Ukrainian garrison held out more than five weeks of siege!). I.e. the Chernihiv Oblast is now free from Russians, too.

Of course, cleaning of the mess caused and left behind by the RFA, de-mining etc., is going to take years. The reconstruction even longer: the mayor of Chernihiv is reporting that over 80% of the city was destroyed. Number of civilian casualties there (not to talk about nearby villages), remains unknown…

Further south, and simultaneously, the advancing Ukrainian forces then re-established land-connection to the garrison of Nizhyn, and liberated Kruty. As of this morning, I’m not even sure if there are any RFA troops left in Buryn and Putyvl, about 100km further east.

Some Russian forces — foremost units consisting of reservists from the Donbas area — seem to still be present inside Ukraine north and east of Sumy, though (or the Ukrainians didn’t manage to get there, yet).

Kharkiv remained under continuous Russian air-strikes and artillery barrages for the last two days, but the RFA keeps the distance from the city. The latter is little surprising because the Ukrainian 92nd Mech seem to be on the move again, this time with a push from Mala Rohan and Chuhuiv towards the Russian border. The idea might not be bad, then such a move has a potential to threaten the northern flank and rear echelons the 6th CAA, further east — and that would be highly important considering what is going on in the Izium area of the last few days.

Since completely securing Izium, on 1 April (there are still some 15,000–20,000 civilians inside, and the authorities are calling them to evacuate, urgently) the 6th CAA — reinforced by VDV troops of the 36th CAA and constantly supported by massive barrages from TOS-1 MRLS’ and intensive air strikes (now primarily flown by night) — has managed to push the 81st and 95th Airborne Brigades out of Topolske and Kamyanka. As of yesterday, 3 April, the Russians have launched four successive attacks on Mala Komuyshuvakha and Tykhotske. At least the former might have been captured by the RFA, followed by Brazhkivka, as of this morning. I.e. as announced nearly a week ago, the Russian advance on Barvinkove and/or Slovyansk is turning into the decisive engagement of this phase of the war (which, if I’m to ask, is going to go on for much longer).

EAST

Over the last two days, the Russians have concentrated whatever units they were able to withdraw from north-western Kyiv Oblast, via Belarus and Kursk to eastern Ukraine to the area south-east and east of Kharkiv. Thus, the 20th and 8th CAA have massively reinforced their efforts to capture Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk and Popasna in the north of the LOC: this area is attacked from north-west, north, and east at the same time.

Furthermore, yesterday, the 8th CAA launched an attempt widen its penetration west of Horlivka by assaulting Novabakhmutivka: as far as is known, the Russians are now inside this village. There are no reports indicating anything similar is happening in the Donetsk area, though.

MARIUPOL

The probable reason why the 8th CAA is not advancing west from Donetsk is that the Ukrainian garrison of Mariupol is still holding out. I.e. Mizintsev (CO 8th CAA) is too busy and lacking troops for an advance in western direction. Therefore, and in complete disregard for the safety of civilians, he is now pounding the city with TOS-1s, several times a day. Seemingly, the reason is that both the RFA and Rosgvardia’s Chechens have immense problems with fighting the Azov Regiment in the Azovstal area: the regiment is still controlling most of the factory, and the nearby part of the port: even French Neo-Nazis ‘embedded’ with Rosgvardia are reporting heavy Russian losses (sometimes, yes, one has no other options but to check their websites….). On the northern side of the perimeter, the 36th Marines didn’t manage to force the Russians away from the Townhall of the Kalmiuskyi District, though.

Local authorities are calling remaining residents to evacuate, but this is extremely hard right now: about 500 have managed to flee on their own — through the Russian lines — to the Zaporozhye area, on 2 April. Another 469 have followed yesterday.

SOUTH

As of yesterday, 3 April, the Ukrainians have liberated Olexandrivka, north of Kherson, and were within reach of Bilozerka, south-west of Kherson. ‘in retaliation’, the 49th CAA has heavily rocketed Mykolaiv, the last night and this morning — foremost by BM-30 Smerch MRLS’, and especially by its rockets carrying CBUs. At least four hospitals and the city orphanage have received direct hits. Number of victims is not yet clear.

On the eastern side of Dnepr: 58th CAA Remains preoccupied with bringing in reinforcements. Only its 71st Guards Mortor Rifle Regiment was active, the last two days, but its attack on Vuhledar was repelled, on 2 April.