Ukraine War, 31 August 2022: Ukrainian Attacks in Kherson Oblast
Good morning everybody!
Good morning everybody!
Trying to find out what exactly is going on in Kherson Oblast the last two days is like trying to collect some snake-sweat, these days. Except for lots of babbling, claims and counter-claims, next to no details.
The keystone Cops in Moscow claim to have killed 500, then 1,200 ‘Ukrainian militants’, dozens of ‘foreign mercenaries’, destroyed ’50…then 139 armoured vehicles’, shot down two additional Su-25, that the ‘Ukrainian offensive failed’…and that on top of their claim that they have ‘completely neutralised’ the Ukrainian Air Force….(for the fourth or fifth time?)…and are thus now destroying the air forces of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland — handed over to Ukraine. Moreover, you know, now it’s the Afghan pilots who are flying for the UAF….
Don’t worry: It’s not much better on the other side. Kyiv is, essentially, zip-lip; at most, releasing videos showing ambulances carrying wounded from the frontline arriving in Odesa. The People in Need of Fresh Air are babbling about ‘shaping operations’, and the British…. sigh…I’m just waiting for the HNA to come up with one of its usual reports about the Ukrainian Armed Forces being on the brink of collapse…
Actually: it’s entirely pointless to claim either victory or defeat for one or the other side. Too little is known and the fighting raging in far too many places, and it’s still too early just to deduct what are Ukrainians trying to achieve. The only thing really sure is that the artillery remains the dominant element on both sides, and is regularly pulverising — or being pulverised — the other…
What can be deducted from all the possible reports — and, please mind that nothing of the following is official or confirmed, rather something like ‘best guess’ — from north towards south, the situation is something like this:
Ukrainians claim to have broken through the positions of the 205th MR Brigade, which is known to be deployed somewhere between Arhanhelske and Zolota Balka (other VSRF units there were the 10th Special Purpose Brigade and the 125th Guards Coastal Defence Brigade, supported by the 140th Artillery Regiment and 227th Artillery Brigade);
Visohopillya: first there was report that the Russians there are surrounded; meanwhile, the place seems to be under Ukrainian control;
Arhanhelske and Olhyne: unclear, might be ‘contested’;
Petrivka: Ukrainians are inside, but not yet in control;
Zolota Balka: might be under Ukrainian control;
Davydiv Bryd: under Russian control;
Bilohirka: Ukrainian control;
Andriivka: Ukrainian control;
Sukhy Stavok: was under Ukrainian control, Russians claim to have forced Ukrainians out.
Even more uncertain is the situation in central Kherson Oblast. Say, from Snihurivka down to Zelenyi Hai and Muzykivka, north of Kherson (city). Can’t find any reports from there, whatsoever.
Further south:
Posad-Pokrovske and Blahodatne: Ukrainian control, used as springboard for attacks further south-east;
Kyselivka: supposedly, Ukrainians entered the place, on 29 August, but were meanwhile pushed out;
Pravdyne: Russian control;
Chornobaivka: Russian control, and the VKS helicopters are still using the (battered) Kherson International;
Oleksandrivka (on the coast) and Tomyna Balka: there were reports about Ukrainians driving all the way to the latter and destroying the HQ of the 33rd Guards MR Regiment, two days ago, prompting a flight of several other VSRF units; meanwhile, both sides are zip-lip about this area.
In the rear, there was a fierce, minutes-long fire-fight inside Kherson (city), yesterday morning: probably a guerrilla attack by Ukrainians. Both the Kherson and Nova Kakhovka area are under continuous, and heavy artillery strikes.
Particularly heavily hit is the Antonovsky Road Bridge: there were several reports — some supported by satellite photos — about multiple Russian military convoys converging on its southern side. Moreover, VSRF’s engineers have intensified their efforts to complete that barge bridge underneath the Antonovsky Road Bridge (indeed: this is ‘leaning’ upon the main structure). Photos below are from 4–6 days ago — and both were taken in between of Ukrainian artillery strikes.
(Must admit, I find such constructions fascinating — but wouldn’t like to be in the boots of the involved engineers: they are not only expected to suffer terrible losses while working on such constructions, but de-facto certain to suffer such losses considering all the Ukrainian artillery strikes on this site.)
Of particular interest is that the Russians claim most of Ukrainian killed as from the 128th Mountain Brigade. The Keystone Cops are stressing that this brigade was ‘defeated’ — but, they wouldn’t say where, nor how. Now, as far as I know, this unit was lately in southern Zaporizhzhya, not in Kherson Oblast. This might confirm rumours along which the ‘offensive in Kherson’ was accompanied by an offensive in southern Zaporizhzhya, spread by few instances in the social media back on 29 August. Others understand this as that the 128th was re-deployed to Kherson — apparently because there are next to no reports from southern Zaporizhzhya. Frankly, as always: no idea. All that can be said is that the Russians are proudly shown several videos (here’s another one) and few stills of knocked out T-72M1s (all now with ERA-blocks, added in Ukraine). Here few examples:
Whether these were operated by the 128th or some other unit: sorry, don’t know.
Russian PMCs, though, seem to be in disagreement with the Keystone Cops in Moscow. Indeed, their messages are dismissing all the claims about ‘big victories and failed offensive’, and emphasising lack of artillery support, losses and withdrawal.
In the air… the Russians attacked the Interzryvprom Works in Kryvyi Rih: claim to have ‘destroyed’ it by ‘high-precision missiles’; Ukrainians claim to have shot down two Kh-31s there. VKS air strikes have targeted the 35th and 36th Naval Infantry Brigades ‘in the Mykolaiv area’: Ukrainians de-facto confirmed this — by belittling the poor precision of Russian Su-25s (nothing new and no surprise considering persistent ‘spray and pray’ — so also by ‘super-advanced’ Mi-28s and Ka-52s). UAF reportedly flew about 15–16 air strikes, but I’ve missed writing down what place did it target: the Keystone Cops then claimed two Su-25s as shot down near Krasone Znamya, in Mykolaiv Oblast.
Overall, when it comes to Kherson, only one thing is sure: under current conditions, there is simply no way for Putin to organise any kind of a ‘referendum’ there.
Elsewhere… essentially, the Russians are still striking Kharkiv with multiple rocket launchers, and all of their attacks on Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Kodema, Avdiivka, Opytne, Marinka, etc. have been repelled. The Russians did manage to enter the southern side of Klynove, back on 29 August, though.
The III Army Corps of the VSRF is entering Ukraine. Yesterday morning, a big column — over 300 vehicles — reportedly passed Torez. Can only say that I find it silly when Russian social media is reporting the III AC to include ’90,000 best armed troops’, considering it’s a corps (i.e. not even a ‘combined arms army’), considering photos of its aged troops with bellies and old gear like knee-high leather boots, and when all of the VSRF has about 160,000 combat troops in Ukraine…