Ukraine War, 10–11 July 2022
Good morning everybody!
Good morning everybody!
The exchange of blows is going on — with the note that the overly centralised Russian chain of command, using archaic communication systems, is now decidedly at the disadvantage. So much so, after the loss of some 30+ ammunition and POL-dumps, plus at least five command centres to Ukrainian M142 HIMARS, Caesars and other NATO-supplied means in the last 2–3 weeks, there are ever more complaints in the Russian social media. All the possible weaknesses are exposed, not only within the command structure, but in regards of weapons and logistics, too.
…looks like somebody there never expected to fight this kind of war, but convinced themselves they are so ‘super’ because they’ve caught Ukrainians off guard in 2014, then left Assadists and the IRGC do all the dying in Syria of 2015–2019, and continues suffering from collective megalomania…
In other news: RUMINT from Belarus has it that the VKS is actively training in the local airspace. Moreover, several groups of Russian troops have re-entered the country and were deployed along the border to Ukraine. Obviously, the Keystone Cops are urgently in need of forcing Ukrainians to keep their troops deployed vis-à-vis Belarus, and preventing them from sending reinforcements to the frontlines in the East.
Ah yes, and since yesterday, there are reports according to which it’s now the IRGC (the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran) that’s about to sell some of its UAVs to Russia, and train Russian personnel to operate them. Quite ironic to hear that, actually: back in 2015–2016 the IRGC was extremely horny about entering strategic cooperation with Russia, but Putin said nyet. Indeed, his top commanders in Syria were more often at odds with the IRGC, than cooperating with it — to the degree where the latter entered strategic cooperation with the People’s Republic of China, instead (for a full explanation of results, you might want to read a four-part feature starting here).
….which reminds me: whoever might want to monitor any possible Russo-Iranian cooperation that might result from this, should keep in mind that behind the mass of flying stuff titled ‘made in the IRI’ of our days, the actual manufacturer is somewhere in the PRC…
AIR/MISSILE WAR
A precise hit on the ammo dump in Shakhtarsk, from 10 July, was confirmed by one of locals who managed to escape to the Ukrainian side of frontlines: the site was hit and blown up at 04.00hrs in the morning.
‘In retaliation’, the VKS released eight missiles at the Odessa area, early on 11 July: apparently, it was a mix of Kh-31s and Kh-59s. One hit a residential building, another an infrastructure facility of unknown nature.
In the afternoon, a volley of M142s first knocked out a Russian S-300 SAM-site in the Kherson area, then completely demolished the HQ of the XXII AC in Tavrysk. RUMINT has it that several high officers (including the CO BTG 106th VDV Division and the BTG CO 16th Spetsnaz Brigade), and up to 150 troops have been demilitarised… In the evening another volley blew up another ammunition depot (plus the dam) in Nova Khakovka, and one more hit a depot in Kherson, causing a massive conflagration.
That ‘detail’ with S-300s might be indicative of several things. Firstly, it appears that every HIMARS-strike is starting by knocking out Russian air defences protecting the actual target. Something like ‘confirmation’ for this is a mix of rumours and complaints about the inability of that system to intercept HIMARS. Well, it seems it actually can — but: it cannot deal with a volley of 6–12 of them ‘at once’. It kills 2–3, perhaps few more, but the rest gets through, and then things go ‘boom’. Moreover, and as explained time and again, ever since the late 1980s, Western-made explosives are developing much more overpressure than the Russian (up to 40% more). The Russians have ignored this fact for decades (although their ‘advisors’ should’ve been aware of this since Angola and Iraq of the late 1980s, at least), and are now quite shocked by this realisation. Is a similar ‘self-inflicted wound’ like when they were first self-convincing themselves that their air defences are ‘shooting down all the US and Israeli cruise missiles and precision guided ammo’ fired at Assadists and the IRGC in Syria, only to now realise: nope, they do not.
Early this morning, two medical facilities and several residential buildings were hit in Mykolaiv: tragically, such reports usually end with civilian casualties…
BATTLE OF DONBAS
Kharkiv….(double-checked: don’t want to name it Kursk, Kyiv or something else, again….)…a six-storey apartment building in central Kharkiv was hit, early on the morning of 11 July, and then several additional homes and a shopping mall, around 10.00hrs local time in the morning: six civilians were killed.
Sloviansk….bad news from this area, as it turned out that sometimes between 4 and 6 July the Russians have penetrated the Ukrainian frontline south-west of Dibrovne, and drove all the way to Kurulka. Might indicate they are trying to cut off the railway to Sloviansk and drive into the back of the heavily-fortified Kramatorsk, too. Is definitely no good news — even more so if Kyiv is zip-lip about such an important development on such an important sector of the frontline (if nothing else, the Zelensky Administration might be curious to evacuate civilians on time!). Russian attacks on Krasnopillya and Dolyna were repelled, but it seems Ukrainians have, ‘finally’, given up on defending Bohorodichne: at least they’re reporting about shooting at the Russians from hills south of the place, the last two days. With other words: think I’m free to conclude that the much-expected Russian offensive on Sloviansk was initiated, sometimes the last 3–4 days: its only now we’re about to find this out, bit by bit…
Siversk….not really sure about the situation in Bilohorivka (the one on the Siversky Donets): as first, back on 9–10 July, the Russians were heavily shelling the area WEST of Serebianka. Usually, this means the frontline was already ‘two villages further west’. Then Ukrainians said they have managed to stop the Russians short of Hryhorivka, which would mean the Russians have taken Bilohorivka. As of this morning, RUMINT has it the Russian attack on Bilohorivka was repelled, though.
Bakhmut…the situation there was ‘no fun’ the last two days. Russian assaults on the Vuhlehirske power plant grew so intense, Ukrainians re-deployed a good part of the 95th Airborne Assault there. The latter seems to have stabilised the situation.
LOC….The Russians attacked the Marynka area, yesterday: as meanwhile a tradition, have been sent back to their positions… RUMINT has it, the recently-established 68th Jaeger Brigade, deployed in this area few days ago, then drove them out of Pavlivka, possibly out of Oleksandrivka, too (guess, diverse ‘Experten’ in the West didn’t count that brigade when, recently, complaining there are only 60 Ukrainian ‘BTGs’ — actually: full battalions — ‘left’ in the Donbas area, compared to 108 Russian, the mass if which is down to 50–60% of their nominal strength).
SOUTH
Kherson (north)….Ukrainians have liberated Novovozenske and Zolota Balka (not sure if I’ve mentioned the latter one any more), and official Kyiv has confirmed the liberation of Ivanivka (by the 60th Mech)… might mean the EOD-teams have cleared all the mines and traps left behind by the Russians (they’re sowing mines everywhere, and in incredible numbers, whenever withdrawing).
Kherson (city)…. Kyiv has officially called the citizens to evacuate their homes because of the coming offensive on this place and then has ‘something like confirmed’ the liberation of Kyselivka (which actually took place over a week ago). In reaction to all the Ukrainian artillery strikes, the ocal Putin-fans are complaining that the ‘USA have entered the war’…. Additional ‘fighting and explosions’, but no other details, have been reported from the Chernobaivka area.
NAVAL/BLACK SEA
Over the last two-three weeks, a total of eight foreign ships have loaded Ukrainian grain in occupied Ukrainian ports: several of them brought their cargo to Assadists in Syria — a country to which Ukraine has no diplomatic relations since several weeks. Makes me wonder: where is France now to eagerly send its navy to intercept such vessels — like it was trying to do with Turkish vessels carrying arms and supplies for Turkish- and forces of the internationally-recognised Libyan government, fighting Russia-, France-, Egypt-, UAE-, Israel-, Sudan- etc. supported Haftar-led forces, two years ago… but then, there’s no end of ‘wonders’ in a world made turn around by idiotically greedy oligarchy and idiotically short-sighted politicians they’re bribing…