Ukraine War, 7 September 2022
Good morning everybody!
Good morning everybody!
It was a big day in Ukr….in Russia, yesterday. So much so, I have to warn in advance that — after monitoring reactions in the Russian social media for the last 36–48 hours - it’s hard to hold back: this report is certain to get stuffed full with sarcasm.
For the start, I’m having serious worries about the voice and fingers of the Top Keystone Cop in Moscow, Major-General Konashenkov. I stopped counting his releases at 14 or 15, yesterday. Think, he didn’t release as many the entire last week. But, at least he’s got so much good news to report: I have quit being good in maths nearly 40 years ago, but a quick review of Konashenkov’s reports counted some 20,000 neutralised Ukrainian militants, 6–7 destroyed brigades of the destroyed ZSU, half a dozen of destroyed combat aircraft of the destroyed Ukrainian air force, four destroyed US-made Bradley IFVs, and…. plenty, plenty, other things… Think, henceforth, we can consider the entire Ukrainian armed forces for destroyed destroyed… (emphasis on double ‘destroyed’, pending escalation to destroyed destroyed destroyed).
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Kharkiv….the Russians were… not… taken by surprise. You know, they can’t be taken by surprise. They all knew Ukrainians were coming, for weeks already. Even sparrows on local roofs knew every detail about Ukrainian reinforcements arriving in the area south-east of Kharkov and plotting a sinister plot… but.. (what an unpleasant word)… and ‘still’… the ‘Ukrotopians’ then dared to blast the Russian positions in Volokhivlar, Yakovenkove, Verbivka — plus the railway in Kupyansk — by HIMARS, yesterday, early in the morning. Shortly after, the 3rd Tank and a brigade of the TD then overrun those in Verbivka, circled northern Balakleya to liberate Yakovenkove, and then pushed into northern Balakleya, causing such losses and panic of the LNR regiment garrisoning the town, that — before running away — this blew up a bridge necessary to supply the Russian troops south of the local section of the Siversky Donets.
‘But’… no, there is no reason to panic, which is why not only that LNR unit run away in panic, but, according to the Russian sources, the supposed commander of the Ukrainian operation did so, too. Indeed, it must’ve been like at the end of one of Benny Hill shows: everybody was running away. The Separatists first, followed by the Russians and then Ukrainians. They all run, and run, and run until reaching a cluster of villages called Morozovka, Savyntsi, Rakivka, Dovhalivka, and Zalyman, 15–20 EAST of Balakleya.
To make things more interesting, I guess, Ukrainians were already holding Zalyman.
…which, essentially, means: all the Russian troops south of the local section of the Siversky Donets — say: those in southern Balakleya, Bayrak, Nova Husarivka, Nortsivka etc. — are now cut off, encircled, and in deep trouble. Through the afternoon, cries to pray for ‘heroes of Samara and Bashkiria….and Saratov, too’ slowly began filling the Russian social media…
(….because I was ‘wrong’ about the SOBR, about a month ago, this has a unit of special police force from Saratov deployed in this area….)
….isn’t that heart-breaking?
At least I’m sure Putin’s going to feel a lot better if returning to monitor the Vostok-22 Exercise: the VSRF is winning there, all the time…
But, and again: no reason to panic. Russian artillery and air force are now ‘at work’, Russian veterans of the Afghanistan War in the 1980s are already counterattacking, using shells made in North Korea. From the area between Bryhadyrivka and Borshchivka, which is some 10km north of Balakleya, and with such immense success that as of this morning there was a pitched battle going on in the Volkhov Yar, another 10–15km further north.
….all of which, you know, means that Ukrainians are not in Balakleya at all. Get that, finally. Therefore, there can be no talk about a deep breakthrough by Ukrainians…
That was the point at which I ‘facepalmed’ for the first time….
There was more action further east, especially in the Bakhmut area, where the Wagner PMC claims to have secured all of Kodema — by showing a video of a drive from the Vuhlehirske TES to the first few houses on the southern side of the village.
In the Slovyansk area….no, that’s a wrong description… in the Lyman area, after liberating Ozerne, (or at least taking most of the place), three days ago, Ukrainians liberated Brusivka and Staryi Karavan, yesterday. Means: yes, they’re definitely over the Siversky Donets in this area, too.
On the LOC, the VSRF proudly smashed an entire stretch of Pervomaiske with TOS-1.
The few Russians not already in delirium over this and all the victories mentioned above and below, or discussing Biden, cooking, and sports, are in delirium claiming their III Army Corps launched its (‘much-expected’, of course) offensive on Zaporizhzhya by taking two villages west of Orkihiv, pending rapid advance in northern direction. As usually, no evidence in support of such claims was provided, whatsoever.
KHERSON
North
Short version: the destroyed 128th Mountain was ‘everywhere’, yesterday. At last it’s so that along reports I’ve seen and read, it must’ve been anywhere between Chereshneve and Havrylivka on the Dnipro. The only thing I’m sure (and with which even the Russians agree), is that it liberated Novovoskresenske (OK, the Russians do not mention the 128th, because everybody knows — foremost social-media presences from UK, South Africa and Argentina — that this was destroyed already…). In reality, this means that the 128th advanced at least about a dozen of kilometres within something like 24 hours. I’m sure, all of Germany and half of Austria is going to agree that this deserves the description ‘failed offensive’…
Considering this development, I think the Ukrainian South OK finds it perfectly fine if the VDV and Wagner continue holding southern Arhanhelske — at least until Ukrainians are well south of that area…
Inhulets Bridgehead
According to (really: most authoritative) Russian sources, the VDV has destroyed all three of Ukrainian bridges over the Inhulets — for at least 9th or 10th time, meanwhile. And, when Ukrainians attempted to construct a new one, this was destroyed by a salvo of BM-27. Then the ‘5th (Ukrainian) assault wave’ — which all the Russians know consists of poorly-trained ‘Volkssturm and women driving BMP-1s’ — crossed the river to continue an assault from the bridgehead…
Nobody there is wondering how comes anybody has crossed the Inhulets if all the bridges were knocked out? …or how comes, after all the destructions (plural) of the Inhulets Bridgehead, that pesky Ukrainian 35th Naval Infantry Brigade overrun not only the VDV in Kostromka, but liberated Bezimenne and Shchasiyve — only to, supported by the 17th Tank — drive all the way down to Chkalove (if it’s not already inside that place)…?
Confused? Nevermind. I’m sure the Russian social media is going to quickly re-group and launch a new counterattack, then destroy the bridgehead again. Believe me, that’s so easy: just type ‘destroyed’ (followed by geographic location) in your keyboard/smartphone…
In reality, the net result of all of this is that the XX AC and the 49th CAA are now trying to construct a new defence line, further south. This is in the process of being organised by two BTGs of the 76th VDV and the 124th Tank Battalion….and that in the Chkalove area. I.e. there was a race for who’s going to reach that place as first: Ukrainian Naval Infantry or the Russian VDV. Right now, I do not know who won that one.
BTW, aBTG of the Amur Brigade and another of the 126th Coastal Defence Brigade have been rushed from Nova Kakhova towards north, too: both have been transferred from the eastern bank of the Dnipro, yesterday (see my earlier reports).
South
The last few days, many of online-Russians were calling, ‘let them come, let them come’. Now, some of the same are crying about the lack of artillery support and incompetent commanders. Sounds ironic? Wait. There are better news: by side that it’s increasingly obvious that Ukrainians are moving so fast, and in so many places and directions at the same time, that they are overwhelming the command, communication, and control capabilities of both HQ XX AC and the HQ 49th CAA. The VKS is already ‘at work’ — in spectacularly improved fashion — and going to save the situation. In Syria of May-June 2017, its Su-30SM interceptors (price tag: US$60 million) were flying close air support sorties armed with calibre 80mm unguided rockets. Under Putin, the Russian armed forces have advanced so much over the last five years, that now the VKS is flying its super-turbo-Wunderwaffen Su-35S’ (price tag: US$83 million) armed with same 80mm unguided rockets to fly spray-and-pray attacks…
And they’re destroying and re-destroying the Ukrainian Air Force with ease: the Keystone Cops claimed three Ukrainian Su-25s as shot down by ‘fighters of the VKS and air defence systems’ — all ‘in the N…. Mykolaiv region’.
As usually, no evidence was provided at all, which means that this is beyond any doubt…
Actually: one knows the situation is seriously bad when the VKS is out and flying such jets into such attacks — and that in addition to Ka-52s and Su-25s. I just do not know exactly where because haven’t found nor received any new reports about major Ukrainian advances since yesterday morning.
Dnipro
Sometimes during the afternoon yesterday, RUMINT had it that one of two VSRF ferries crossing the Dnipro near Kherson was hit by Ukrainian artillery and sunk — together with a load of Russian military vehicles.
***
So, after all of this, I think I’m going to take a few days off. It was exciting and exhausting to monitor this war the last few days. So much so, I kind of don’t want to know what are the involved combatants going through, these days. Moreover, I need to take some time off — also in order to properly cross-check diverse reports, and to re-contact few sources. After all, there are lots of very fast movements and I don’t want to feed you with with any kind of inaccuracies.
