Ukraine War, 29 August 2022: Ukrainian Attacks in Kherson Oblast

Good evening everybody,

Good evening everybody,

well, seems, it wasn’t a ‘quiet’ day after all. On the contrary, there’s lots of reporting about an Ukrainian offensive in Kherson Oblast.

Now, before I go on, please, consider two things:

a) I’m not going to ‘reveal’ anything the GenStab-U, the OSK South, and the Keystone Cops in Moscow do not already know.

b) I do not know if this is a ‘big’ offensive, ‘medium-sized’ offensive, or something like ‘just a diversion’. And if I would know (and that’s a ‘huge if’), I wouldn’t say. Thus, it’s pointless to ask me.

‘It all began’… with days-long Ukrainian artillery barrages on selected targets in the Nova Kakhovka area in particular (where at least two ammo depots were hit just today), but also in Kherson (city; for example, the ‘Vine Factory’). The intensity of shelling increased by a magnitude (at least) the last night, and artillery strikes were repeated on multipe objects deeper behind the frontline throughout the day. These were targeting ammunition and supply-depots, and headquarters, first and foremost. That said, and for the first time ever, there are reports that Ukrainian M142 HIMARS were deployed to target Russian positions on the frontline, too (not only targets well behind the frontline).

The shelling of the Nova Kakhovka area reached such intensity that the Russian authorities should’ve ordered evacuation of both local civilians and VSRF troops from there. Furthermore, the Russians report that all the ‘fixed’ bridges over the Dnipro are damaged and closed for traffic.

Another major target of Ukrainian artillery remained the Antonovsky Road Bridge — hit already on 22, 25 and 27 August — even more so because the Russians are constructing their ‘pontoon’ bridge underneath the same. The latter is a massive construction actually consisting of barges made of steel and concrete, some 30-, other 50- or more metres long, 15–20 metres wide, and each weighting about about 1,000 tons. As of this morning, they have spanned about 600 metres and thus were some 300–350 metres short of completing that bridge.

This might have been one reason why Ukrainians have launched their attacks ‘exactly today’.

The situation of the Antonovsky Bridge as of 25 August. You can see the construction of that Russian barge-bridge right next to it. Meanwhile, it came forward with few additional sections added over the last four days. The Ukrainians were striking the same spot on the original bridge, about 150m short of the southern bank: since yesterday, they’re targeting this barge-bridge, too.

Now, regarding Ukrainian offensive operations, and from north towards south…

In the Visokopillya area, Ukrainians should have attacked Novovoznesenske and Lyubymivka. The Russians claim their VDV troops have repelled both attacks, as well as those on ‘Olgino’ and Beryslavsky, and to have knocked out two Ukrainian MBTs.

There is some confusion regarding the situation in Zolota Balka, on the Dnipro (I’m really not sure if sources mean the place, or something else): some say it was liberated; others say, nope, that’s actually Tomyna Balka, south of Kherson…

What’s going on further south is not particularly clear, because there are plenty of claims and counter-claims. But, in essence, it seems Ukrainians are attacking over much of the Inhulets River, roughly from Arhanhelske in the north, via Oleksandrivka (the one north of Davydiv Bryd), to Bilohirka. The Russians report that they expected an attack from the Inhulets bridgehead, but this came from the Andriivka area instead: supposedly an Ukrainian motor rifle battalion reinforced by a tank company crossed a newly-constructed pontoon bridge there, and then quickly advanced from there.

Indeed, the first reported Ukrainian success today (and this is something about which both sides are in agreement), seems to have been the liberation of the place named Sukhyi Stavok, some 3–4km south of Davydiv Bryd: there, Ukrainian shelling scared the VDV to flee, leaving behind the ‘volunteers’ of the 109 Regiment ‘DNR’. The latter were routed…

Such a ‘forced river crossing, followed by advance’ is not a bad idea: it’s forcing the Russians to scatter their artillery fire over many targets. Similar is valid for distribution of their reserves: hard to decide what to send where, or where to counterattack, if ‘the entire frontline is aflame’. Crucial is going to remain Ukrainian ability to, despite superior Russian artillery (or by knocking out the same), concentrate sufficient forces in selected spots. This is certain to remain decisive for the outcome of this operation: the better and quicker they can keep the Russian artillery down, the faster and with less losses are they going to come forward.

Meanwhile, RUMINT has it that except for Sukyi Stavok, also Arhanhelske, Nova Dmytrivka, and Oleksandrivka have been liberated. Nothing of this is officially confirmed, though.

Finally, in the south, Ukrainians appear to have attacked along either side of the M14 highway, and along the coast. One story is that they have managed to encircle the Russian garrison of Blahodativka, but not to take the place.

The Russians report Ukrainians have entered Pravydne and Kyselivka, but were then pushed back. They also say they have repelled an Ukrainian attack on the Oleksandrivka on the coast. That said, CNN has it that Ukrainians have taken Pravdyne and Tomyna Balka. The former should be OK, the latter might be exaggerated: the place is some 10–15km behind the frontline of this morning. But, who can say: perhaps it’s really so as some say that, in several areas, Ukrainians meanwhile drove 10–12km deep through the Russian lines, and are routing VSRF, ‘big style’. We’re going to know more tomorrow, of course.

The VKS was out in force, over Kherson today. About two dozens of combat sorties by Mil Mi-28 and Kamov Ka-52 attack helicopters deployed at bases in occupied Crimea have been reported. Most of their attacks should have targeted Ukrainian troops in the Andriivka and Kalynyvka areas and: seeems, the Russians are still making use of the Kherson Airport.

The Keystone Cops in Moscow have claimed the destruction of 26 Ukrainian tanks, 23 IFVs, 9 other armoured vehicles, two Su-25s, and two helicopters. The Russian air defences have been hit by AGM-88B HARM, early this morning, but were up and active throughout the day. Between others: claimed two Ukrainian helicopters as shot down.

….and, as of this evening, Russian positions in the Kherson and Nova Kakhovka areas are _heavily_ shelled, once again…