Ukraine War, 29–30 May 2022

Good morning everybody!

Good morning everybody!

It’s the last day in the long and bloody month of May. Tragically, it’s going to be the last day of all too many young lives spent as cannon fodder in an irrational battle provoked by few old farts: another lesson the humanity simply can’t learn since thousands of years…

BATTLE OF DONBASS

Lyman…. For troops declared for ‘defeated’ by the Russians, indeed, being ‘broken’ and having ‘low morale’ by multiple foreign observers, Ukrainian defenders of Lyman remain full of fight. Instead of a headlong flight back to Siversky Donets, they run an organised withdrawal into the terrain south of the town — which, by its geography, is de-facto ‘another town’: either dense forest or recently de-forested, but foremost very uneven, even broken, offering plenty of cover for defenders. Mopping up that is going to take the Russians some time — even more considering that they’re so short on troops, and in such a rush to get Severodonetsk, that they began withdrawing units from Lyman and re-shuffling them further east as soon as they took the latter…

Severodonetsk….at least according to the Russians, the ruined town was captured two days ago. Indeed, even Lysychansk was on the verge of falling. Turned out, as of yesterday the Wagner, Rosgvardia, Separatists, and the RFA have taken the northern suburbs, Hotel Mir, bus station, the hospital in the north-east; they seem to have reached the City Concert Hall, perhaps 2–3 streets further into the centre and seem to have advanced into Syrotyne, the southern suburb. All together: about a third of the town, on three sides.

Ukrainian garrison — including the 4th Rapid Reaction Regiment, the 111th or 115th TD- and 17th Tank Brigades — was reinforced by elements of the 81st Airborne Assault Brigade, but since the last evening there are reports about a general withdrawal over Siversky Donets to Lysychansk.

Guess, we have to wait and see what’s going to happen there…

Popasna….the RFA, Wagner and Separatists there run out of steam. Word is that many of about 12–15 BTGs within the bulge are down to 200–250 troops, and about a dozen of operational vehicles — and that generals are trying to force them to continue attacking, and that at gun point. Now, some might be refusing, but the mass is not: yesterday, they were trying to recover Komyshuvakha from elements of the 118th TD Brigade. Outcome unclear.

Talking about the 118th TD Brigade: seems, Ukrainian nowadays operate so that they move in one of regular units, repel Russian attack or take some place; then withdraw the regulars and replace them with Territorial Defence troops. Might sound unfair to the TD-troops, but is actually a very good idea: is enabling local commanders to retain at least some reserve.

Bakhmut…well, no way to advance on Bakhmut when the Wagners were re-shuffled back north to Severodonetsk. Result: same positions as reached two days ago — and, meanwhile it’s hard to advance because, according to Russians, the entire frontline from Komyshuvakha in the north down to multiple points in Horlivka and Donbas are under vicious fire of NATO-supplied Ukrainian artillery. This is including much of the Popasna Bulge. The photo below is shown what’s left of the 76th VDV after this was worked over by artillery of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade.

Don’t worry: much more is on the way. Putin has ordered all the possible reinforcements to Severodonetsk and Avdiivka. These are including at least three BTGs and one artillery battalion from the 58th CAA in the south, plus several trains loaded by T-72s and T-80s. Interestingly, most are passing Rostov-na-Donu on the way to Melitopol…

Avidiivka…is still holding out, regardless how heavily shelled or hit from the air: indeed, the Russian attempt to flank the town by assaulting Novobakhmutivka and Vesele, north of Avdiivka…. well, didn’t get very far. Russians are reinforcing their artillery in that area — for example by Tyulipan self-propelled mortars.

SOUTH

The Ukrainian ‘counteroffensive on Kherson’…. think I’m revealing no big secret if I say that to me this appears to be a ‘perfect diversionary operation’. Thanks to the NATO-support, the Ukrainian GenStab knows perfectly that it’s striking straight into the biggest concentration of RFA troops (and all the possible ‘allies’) in this part of Ukraine — and that there are few other, ‘better directions’ they could hit, somewhere else in the South. But, it’s still doing this, and then with some early success, too.

The reason is that even if BTGs of the 49th CAA are badly overstretched (mind: average BTG, when at full strength, is expected to defend a frontline of about 7–8km: those of the 49th CAA have to defend frontlines of 20–25 kilometres) — that Russian army still has plenty of manpower and two completed defensive lines around Kherson. The third is still under construction… Nevertheless, the troops of Ukrainian 60th and 63rd Brigades did well the last two days. As first, after securing Davydiv Brid, they feinted a push in southern direction while turning east, to hit the Russian frontline between Bila Krynytsia and Novohryhorivka in the back and collapse it. That way, that penetration of the frontline is now as deep as it is wide. But, further advance seems to have been brought to a halt between Sukhyi Stavok and Bruskynske.

The second axis of attack is in the Snihurivka area. Why attacking frontally there… no idea, but it’s not a good area to do so. Unsurprisingly, the Russiian garrison is still holding out.

Now mind: except for liberation of Davydiv Brid, there’s no visual evidence for anything of this. That said, developments in the Davydiv Brid and in the Snihurivka area are known to have been enough to crack the nerves of the RFA garrison in Mykolaivka, further north, and prompt it into a panicky withdrawal.

One way or the other, I wouldn’t be surprised if the HQ 49th CAA is rushing all available forces in that direction — and calling for help from Moscow, too. Meanwhile, the RFA and VKS are ‘hitting back’ — by air strikes and artillery barrages directed at almost every bigger village on the Ukrainian side of the frontline, all the way from Posad-Pokrovske in the south up to Novovorontsovka in the north. No idea what kind of purpose should that serve, but then: nobody said the Russians must fight in a clever fashion or stop squandering their resources…