Told You So
Hello everybody!
Full revelation: I hate being right. I hate being right because I know: I’m the party crusher.
That began in my teenage years: while everybody was enjoying the party, I was busy checking for fires in the kitchen. The more everybody rushed to watch some movie, the less interesting it was for me. The more everybody researched and published about some armed force, aircraft type, or a war, the more uninteresting the same became for me. And the more everybody adored (or still adores) specific politicians and generals, the less I can hold back from searching for - and finding - reasons for (venomous) critique.
Another revelation: this is a consequence of life teaching me to either expect nothing or the worst, so I can’t be disappointed (or get pleasantly surprised if things turn out nicely).
In my job, and over the decades, this made me the ‘worst case scenario-guy’. I don’t know why, nor can really explain the how comes, but: I ‘know’ (or think I know). if things can go wrong, if anybody can screw up, things are going to go wrong and somebody is going to screw up. I’m ready to take every bet.
Nah, I’m no contrarian. At least I do not think of myself that way. I love being in agreement. If at all, I do consider myself the safety officer nobody asked for.
And nobody listens to.
For two years now, here on the Sarcastosaurus, Don and me have played the role of the lonely, Cassandra-like outpost (for those still asking when and how: please see the list at the end of this feature). We’ve catalogued the systemic corruption and incompetence at the top of Ukrainian politics and armed forces, the professional incompetence, doctrinal failures… even failures in bare basics of military education taught to cadets on the second day of the officer course.
This earned us a lots of dismissal, names like Russian sympathisers, nest-foulers, traitors to the narrative, silly, laughable, etc.
Well, really, this is just for the records: since yesterday, you’ve got all of this once again, straight from horse’s mouth, nicely summarised by the Ukrainska Pravda in Lies, isolation, blocking: Fedorov names 11 major problems he found in Defence Ministry.
…where, well, my impression is that Fedorov was extremely kind, actually.
When I look at his ‘list’, that’s no ‘11 major problems’ but the way a contact on the FB has summarised it: it’s ‘11 major levels of problems’ - and then precisely the problems we were pointing out, again and again. Including such that the rot at the Ukrainian top isn’t ‘accidental’, but structural and cultivated (and now, without Fedorov, probably terminal too); that it’s a matrix working exactly as designed. That the essence of the problem is the blind obsession with loyalty-based organisation, instead one based on merits. That Syrsky is so desperate to protect his own incompetence, he’s actively undermining the only effective commander he’s got - which is no ‘bad strategy’ or ‘bad decisions’, but malice: he would rather lose the war than risk a competent subordinate stealing the spotlight. And so on, and on, and on…
So, yes. We told you so. We told you that ‘good news’ were all propaganda: little more but click-baits for growing likes in the social media. We told you that Zele lied when announcing there will be no additional ‘no step back’ orders. We told you that Zele lied when announcing a reform of training. We told you that both Zele and Syrsky lied when announcing that no new units would be established, but old rebuilt.
…and, we’ve told you that pouring billions into a black hole without accountability - like when ‘the West’ is constructing arms factories in Ukraine, which then can neither be supplied with electricity nor protected from Russian air-, missile-, and UAV-strikes - would only deepen the abyss.
Really: I do not feel ‘vindicated’. I’m feeling exhausted. And weary. I hate being right about Zele’s detachment from reality and him having absolutely no trace of clue how to run this war. I hate being right about the Glavcom’s practice of appointing corrupt and incompetent buddies into crucial positions, about his micromanagement and the practice of sacking ‘disloyal’ officers refusing to obey his stupid commands that caused the death of dozens of thousands. I hate being right about the lack of training and urgent necessity for reform. I hate being right about structural cannibalisation of every single ZSU brigade….
…because being right about this means watching men (and women) dying for nothing - and then having to watch funeral processions passing by.
It means watching a country bleed out because its leaders were too stupid but to mind fortifying the power grid, then too busy helping corrupt buddies avoid prosecution by fleeing to Israel, and, finally (and figuratively) stealing (even) the tourniquets.
If in Dreamland, two years ago, I was calling for reforms, meanwhile, for me there is simply no trace of doubt: under Zele, Syrsky - Zele’s ‘General of Fantastic News’ - is never going to be removed, and thus his system of buddies dismantled. With these in command, the ZSU is never going to win this war.
And that all means: for Ukraine to survive this war (not to talk about ‘win this war’, then ‘reform’, ‘join NATO… EU’ etc…) - Zele must go.
***
Hi Tom. I confess to having thought that you were too harsh in your criticism of Syrsky. I was wrong. Now it's obvious for all to see. I have many highly educated Ukrainian friends, two of them have lived with me for 4 years. All detest Zelensky whilst admitting that he has generally performed well in European PR. This disaster at a time when Ukraine has almost managed to isolate Crimea and cripple the Russian oil industry. You would think that even Zelensky could see that when Z bloggers are exulting at this development, it may be a Very Bad Idea.
Apparently there was a meeting between Yermak and Syrsky yesterday...
When I was young and someone said, "I was thinking about you yesterday," I was shocked. I couldn't believe anyone would think about me when I wasn't in front of them. I've never felt anyone cares what I think. I've always felt a stranger in a strange land. I'm used to living out there — and I enjoy it. Every time someone answers one of my comments here, a small part of me is surprised and tickled. I suspect it's somewhat the same for you, Tom, though I don't want to speak for you. Anyway, background out of the way.
Many people are emotionally attached to Ukraine as a real nation — people, friends, family trying to live good lives. Kind to others. Sharing common civilized values. Morality.
When I suggest (and I own this) that Ukraine is no longer a democracy but an oligarchy run to make money from war, to me it's just an opinion. Might be right, might be wrong. If people don't think about me, I don't see why they'd get upset about something I think. When someone does get upset — like Don a few weeks back — part of me wonders, why so emotional? It's just an opinion from someone who doesn't matter.
But the truth is, I'm just as upset. I just have a defense mechanism from childhood: defend myself through logic. So I can say, "Ukraine needs a meritocratic military." Others can agree or disagree. But there comes a point — and we're at it now — where it seems that will not happen. Then what?
Where do we go if we accept that Zelensky is deeply corrupt, and there's no fixing him or replacing him? What do we believe in then? Skepticism is no longer useful. We simply lost. Things weren't the way we wanted them to be. It's been gut-wrenching for me.
In a way, many in Ukraine have moved away from any morality or principle. It's simply "kill as many Russians as we can." That's it. Anyone who questions that is not on the team. Whatever the problems are, they can't be fixed, so let's just get on with it.
No time for philosophical talk. You're for Ukraine or Russia. No but-iffs.
Or put another way: you never really wanted to say "I told you so." But now you can. The problem is that "I told you so" is a judgment on all of us. We had ideals. We were wrong. We were deluded. It was always going to end this way.
I'm as upset as Don. We're all upset I believe. What way forward? I expect we'll continue doing what we do. But things will never be the same. We've reached the part of the movie, "It's just Chinatown, Jack"