The fish rot from the head. That's the Soviet - Russian mindset, prefer loyalty over results. I've read this about the previous Poroshenko's gov. too. Zele is not detached from reality, he is just doing that style of Soviet ruling.
Marx once wrote to the effect that "the tradition of all the dead centuried weighs like a nightmare upon the brain of the living" - and that's certainly applicable to longstanding legacies of structural corruption.
Zelenskyy is a puppet of the oligarchs, just like his entire oligarchic party, “Servant of the People,” which began to fall apart long ago when people loyal to Kolomoyskyi and other oligarchs started fleeing it. Yes, you’re right about the collaborator and looter Poroshenko, who in 2014 secured the support of FSB agent Firtash and Ukraine’s enemy Rinat Akhmetov. His governing style was exactly the same, relying on personal loyalty. This is very typical of the criminal oligarchic system that has long been established here since the 1990s.
Poroshenko appointed loyal idiots Viktor Muzhenko and Stepan Poltorak to leadership positions. The latter had served for a long time in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and lacked the competence to command the army. By the way, Poroshenko did exactly the same thing when Biden demanded that his compadre, that corrupt idiot Viktor Shokin, be removed from the post of Ukraine’s Prosecutor General. And do you know what that monster of a pig, Poroshenko, did? That’s right — he replaced him with another one of his compadres, Yuriy Lutsenko, who didn’t even have the proper education. And then, to help Trump defeat Biden in the election, these “useful idiots”—Viktor Shokin, Yuriy Lutsenko, and Andriy Derkach—stepped in. Derkach was later exposed in the U.S. as a Russian intelligence agent. After that, he fled Ukraine for Russia, where he was appointed as a member of parliament representing Putin’s party. In other words, Poroshenko, Trump, and Putin still share deeply entrenched interests and hidden backchannels. At the time, there was a huge scandal in the U.S., but in Ukraine, none of the oligarch-controlled media outlets or their puppet bloggers mentioned these exploits of our collaborationist looters.
Zele also is a puppet and servant of pudding, likewise the oligarchs.
Zele's, however more likely pudding party a “Servant of the People” is a fake non existent party. During its election it existed only on a paper, thus taking a part in 2020 election was completely illegal.
Yep, for sure. There were surveys about this topic already among "deserters". Also, while Ukraine is struggling with mobilization in general, some units, like 3rd separate brigade Azov, have enough new voluteers to join in.
Hi Tom. I confess to having thought that you were too harsh in your criticism of Syrsky. I was wrong. Now it's obvious for all to see. I have many highly educated Ukrainian friends, two of them have lived with me for 4 years. All detest Zelensky whilst admitting that he has generally performed well in European PR. This disaster at a time when Ukraine has almost managed to isolate Crimea and cripple the Russian oil industry. You would think that even Zelensky could see that when Z bloggers are exulting at this development, it may be a Very Bad Idea.
Apparently there was a meeting between Yermak and Syrsky yesterday...
F.D. Roosevelt being clever enough to favourise George C. Marshall - is, IMHO, a better example.
(BTW, IMHO, McArthur was a primadonna and megalomaniac. But, also, the Japan he's organised since 1945, is - essentially - 'working' until this very day.)
McArthur was certainly a prima-donna and megalomaniac and often a bundle of contradictions. He was a brilliant general who made several bone-headed mistakes that cost many lives. If you haven’t read American Caesar by William Manchester, I strongly recommend it. The constitution he wrote for Japan reflects American ideals better than the America’s government ever has.
Fedorov might be right, but he should have stopped at things pertaining to his former position. He is just a tech bro, who only 6 months ago discovered and added to his vocabulary words/concepts like tactical, operational, corps and brigades. And now he is making analyses on composition of land forces large formations, wtf ? To me, it seems more of a battle of who can steal more, between 2 rival factions in the same ministry. Attempts at major transformations, during an ongoing war, never end well and have dire consequences, unfortunately not only to the reformer, but to everybody.
Never heard a single bad word about Fedorov from any of authoritative contacts.
...and that with 'major transformations during an ongoing war' - has been discussed by Don and me, several times, in the articles listed at the end of the feature.
Point is: it's a lie that this never worked.
(Heh... even the Keystone Cops in Moscow are working better since Pudding sacked incompetent Shoygu and replaced him by Belousov. Arguably, Belousov retained Gerasimov, but run such beasty audits, that 'lots of heads were rolling'. It's just so that nobody is paying attention.)
I don't doubt his heart, only his competences in fields he knows nothing about. It's not a critique. just a reality. I am not talking about firing and replacing people, I am talking about trying to change the system on the go.
Yes, Russians sacked Shoygu and some other people, started running a tighter ship, but those are not systemic changes in the way they view and conduct the war. One major change did happen, indeed. When they rolled back to Divisions made up from Regiments, but their transition towards Brigades never truly finished before 2022 and they already had ample experience in running it this way.
In the case of Fedorov, I was referring to the clash of opinions I read about, one favoring an asymmetric (stupid term, I know, but be it) approach and the other, a more traditional one. I am with Syrskyi on this one.
I find that odd considering the asymmetric successes Ukraine is enjoying. Consider also the increased use of ground/aerial drone small scale assaults that preserve Ukrainian lives.
Drones are just a complement. not a replacement, for now at least. The lack of other means is also a factor in the increased usage of drones, it's a development born out of necessity, that's it, nothing more. You fight with what you have and plenty of.
Which asymmetric successes and how have they translated into the field ? Hitting refineries and transport vessels ? Yes, that is nice, it increases the price of war, but the Russian Army will be the last element of the society who will feel the pain.
Drones are the cause of 80% of the casualties. Because of drones, it's difficult for vehicles to survive on the battlefield. It's difficult for squad-sized units to survive on the front line. Artillery is useful, but its use has dramatically decreased since 2023. The attacks on the Russian air defenses were conducted primarily by drones. This, plus technological advances, led to the attacks on Russia's logistical vehicles and warehouses, which has already had an effect on the front line fighting. The long-range attacks are attacking Russian industries that create the equipment and the refineries that fuel the economy and military.
The Russian army is always prioritised over civilians but if there's less to prioritise because it's being hit en route to the front or because less of it's being made, then they simply won't receive it.
Yes, drones are the cause of 80% of the inflicted casualties, I don't know the exact figure, only the ones involved know for sure. If you take this statement as it is, it looks great. But why is that ? Is it because drones have proven superior or is it somehow corroborated with the lack of other systems and ammo for them ? Why has artillery usage decreased ? Same question behind it. But if the casualty rates have remained the same and only the percentages of which systems deals them changed, it's nothing to be praised and we go back to what I said previous, you fight with what you have. That is why I said I understand Syrski's point of view: I ask you for men, tanks, APCs, artillery and missiles etc. and you give me drones. F*ck you and your drones!
The attack on enemy AA was conducted by drones ? Why ? Is is because of a lack of ground based and air launched dedicated missiles and capabilities ?
I also don't understand what is asymmetric in attacking the enemy's logistics and war industry ? It's normal, these are normal targets, it has been done since the beginning of war as a concept. Same with propaganda, sabotage etc. . That's why I find this term stupid. In my mind, asymmetric actions would be terrorist attacks, which are designed to break the population's will to fight. Financing popular uprisings in your enemy's allied nations, regime changes, that sort of things. But hitting refineries and factories and calling it asymmetric is just a stupid term, coined my an even stupider media.
But I digressed, by quite a lot, from the subject of my original post. Fedorov, in his position as Minister, should be just an administrator, nothing more. I have zero info on his conduct as an administrator, so I cannot judge him at that. But when he speaks about subjects he know nothing about, then I draw the line. Unit composition, command and control, force generation and regeneration model, these are not attributes of an administrator and should stay out of it. He is there to facilitate, to answer the needs of the Army, not to push doctrinal changes. Half of what he wrote in that 11 point rant it's bullshit anyway. Brigade commanders don't know their subordinate units because they are idiots and poorly trained, not because of a lack of digitalization or whatever crap he says in there. But somehow his rant has found great appeal from Gen Z-iers and it seems it's a valid political tactic, if it's successful.
You still haven't heard a bad word about Fedorov, but in UA people are beginning to realize that Fedorov is a new puppet for future elections pushed by the kremlin rulers to replace a rotten Zele clown.
I guess you might not know what rushist Syrsky has created in his 'Skala' division which can be compared by torture and masacres to Auschwitz-Birkenau in Osviencim. His fate has been decided after that.
Fe isn't a tech, he is a marketing thug whose role in his business in 2019 was to cheat people, steal their money. He always was a part of Zele's team of looters and traitors from the beginning. There was a public sexual scandal with Fe involved recently.
Gauging by what you're 'listing' here that Donald and/or me don't know, it's obvious you don't know what Don and me do know - and have already published here.
Besides, if Fedorov is bad, why retain Syrsky?
Fire that incompetent, kick all of his buddies out of the GenStab and the ZSU. Let Fedorov work. If he turns out incompetent or corrupt = repeat the exercise until you find somebody who's better.
The worst thing one could do is to keep that idiot Syrsky in his position so he can keep Zele happy with 'Fantastic News'.
Wars are long listă of changes and transformations: civilian mobilization, industrial mobilization, weapon improvemrnts, tactica improvements, organizațional changes. Not to transform during a war is a vulnerability.
Weapon systems upgrades, tactical improvements, those are adaptations, nothing more. I am talking about war time transformations on your view on how to conduct war, on how you envisioned war and how you trained to fight it. Like those preached, unsuccessfully for now, by NATO's ACT. To give you an example, the way the Russian Army acted when they invaded Ukraine. The usage of the BTGs in an attempt to replicate the American Shock and Awe. This was unnatural to them, who have always been an artillery ground force, one that it's basing itself on superior firepower and superiority in the number of systems. Even their Airforce is required just to support the ground forces and nothing more. To take that Airforce and ask them to fight in the American Air Force style, that would be another example of the transformation I am talking about.
(Sure, many are favouring Zaluzhny, but me thinks: he was much too a 'weather vane', too accommodating, and pliable, instead of actually taking decisions. Otherwise, he should've sacked nearly every single general already in March-April 2022.)
Disappointing in a way, Fedorov is being trusted in the west to reform and manage Ukraine's MOD and by extension war effort.
The almost 5 year war is not looking good with also the unresolved matter with the corruption still with the Dutch-Ukraine solid motor fuel co production project.
a meaningless platitude. Most of the countries are NOT currently being invaded and facing destruction/colonization - the survival of the US is NOT as threatened by its wrong choices as is Ukraine's. That's like seeing your friend's self-destructive spiral into drugs and depression and shrugging it off that everybody has some problems in their lives.
things add up, economic downturn, deterioration of middle class, enormous debt, spend a few hundred patriot missiles and PGMs here a few hundred there and then one day suddenly you find yourself in dire straits. Ukraine also made choices over the years that led here to this point. So has Russia.
Are you with a straight face suggesting that the CHANCE of the US to be militarily invaded, collapse, have a swath of its territory annexed by its mortal enemy and the rest become its colony - is COMPARABLE with that of Ukraine? Otherwise, you are comparing blueberries and watermelons.
And what's your overall message you wanted to convey to the reader - that Ukraine does not deserve our support because
1. they are nothing special since "every country is fighting for survival every day"
2. for the same reason - we'd better keep our Patriots for ourselves ("we are too fighting for our survival every day")
3. Ukraine "has made choices over the years that led here to this point" ???
And what's the point of your last sentence - to equate aggressor with the victim of the aggression??? BOTH "made choices that led them to this point", eh?
If you look at a large enough arc of history, the fight is never-ending. It moves back and forth between democracy and authoritarianism, and it's certainly closer to authoritarianism than it's ever been in my lifetime. As you say, there is a risk that it may cross the line. But there are a lot of factors still in play that still favor democracy. Engagement and education are the biggest issue.
If 100% of the populace were theoretically engaged, even including those who would support authoritarianism, democracy would win and the concentration of power in the hands of the few would be reduced. Apathy is a biggest danger to democracy, more than the despots themselves.
Zele could care less about opinion of some peasant Ukrainians, in the case of NABU protest he got a call from Ursula who told him that she just won't give Ukraine any more money and suddenly he changed his tune. This is unlike whatever the western "analysts" were saying that "omg Zele is so great - see he listens to his people".
In this case I don't see EU intervening or Zele sacking Syrskyi hence where I can only see this heading is bigger and bigger protests. And from there it will absolute and total chaos.
When I was young and someone said, "I was thinking about you yesterday," I was shocked. I couldn't believe anyone would think about me when I wasn't in front of them. I've never felt anyone cares what I think. I've always felt a stranger in a strange land. I'm used to living out there — and I enjoy it. Every time someone answers one of my comments here, a small part of me is surprised and tickled. I suspect it's somewhat the same for you, Tom, though I don't want to speak for you. Anyway, background out of the way.
Many people are emotionally attached to Ukraine as a real nation — people, friends, family trying to live good lives. Kind to others. Sharing common civilized values. Morality.
When I suggest (and I own this) that Ukraine is no longer a democracy but an oligarchy run to make money from war, to me it's just an opinion. Might be right, might be wrong. If people don't think about me, I don't see why they'd get upset about something I think. When someone does get upset — like Don a few weeks back — part of me wonders, why so emotional? It's just an opinion from someone who doesn't matter.
But the truth is, I'm just as upset. I just have a defense mechanism from childhood: defend myself through logic. So I can say, "Ukraine needs a meritocratic military." Others can agree or disagree. But there comes a point — and we're at it now — where it seems that will not happen. Then what?
Where do we go if we accept that Zelensky is deeply corrupt, and there's no fixing him or replacing him? What do we believe in then? Skepticism is no longer useful. We simply lost. Things weren't the way we wanted them to be. It's been gut-wrenching for me.
In a way, many in Ukraine have moved away from any morality or principle. It's simply "kill as many Russians as we can." That's it. Anyone who questions that is not on the team. Whatever the problems are, they can't be fixed, so let's just get on with it.
No time for philosophical talk. You're for Ukraine or Russia. No but-iffs.
Or put another way: you never really wanted to say "I told you so." But now you can. The problem is that "I told you so" is a judgment on all of us. We had ideals. We were wrong. We were deluded. It was always going to end this way.
I'm as upset as Don. We're all upset I believe. What way forward? I expect we'll continue doing what we do. But things will never be the same. We've reached the part of the movie, "It's just Chinatown, Jack"
auf dem wege zu einem anderen modernen demos-system in der Ukraine führt mE -heute- kein weg an der zwischenstufe -Stratokratie- vorbei.
Dies wäre mÜn die einzige möglichkeit das Ze-oligo-pluto-diebe-krimi-kratie-regime wegzuräumen. es ist schon soooooviel blut geflossen und leid und opfer u.u.u. wg. diesem klown und seiner qlicke
Und ja es ähnelt sich stark an einen putch. Und ja es gab schon sowas.
Pinocet. Und? Wo sind die probleme von Chili heute?
Ukraine was always an oligarchy. To a great extent so is the US. The amount of power and influence that is held by a very small group of people that own the tech companies, the media, the financial institutions and of course the MIC is astonishing.
Yes, the oligarchy part in itself is not the root problem. It's the government in charge of the military. Parliament should have more power. Zelensky should be replaced if only for fresh ideas or more accountability. I don't have the answer. Like you said, same in the U.S.
It's all very sad, and the recriminations for this situation, which no signs of not getting progressively worse, both against Zelenskiy, the cliques that control the country, and the greater fools in NATO and especially I think in British policy circles that did much to exacerbate the disaster, will be equally grim.
Tom: when you say "Zele must go", what exactly do you mean? A coup d'etat? I don't think there is a legal way to remove him, even though his popular support now is probably on par with Yanukovich in 2014.
Another question is, what is his, and Sirsky's, popular support within ZSU?
Essentially, the question is what's more harmful in the middle of the war: keeping an incompetent ruler, or remove him with violence?
And assuming the ruler is kept, and Fedorov is replaced by another incompetent from the same magazine, what would you expect on the battlefield? After all, some innovations Fedorov pushed for are probably going to stay, and some others will be made anyway, despite the incompetent management. The dark forecast you've made here https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/after-pokrovsk hasn't quite materialized - yet. If Zele/Sirsky stay, what would be your updated forecast?
Zelensky certainly can resign, but why would he do so? A lot of people, including his early supporters/allies, were begging him to at least unequivocally reject the possibility of a second term, but he hasn't done even that. I can't read his mind, but it looks like a lot of his actions are driven by the desire to maintain power. Some of those actions - including Fedorov's sacking - might actually have the opposite effect, but the intent is quite clear nonetheless, I'd say. Voluntary resignation would be the last thing expected from him.
With Fedorov gone the changes he made will be dismantled. The military will go back to purchasing poor quality and overpriced weapons from the people with the best connections. Technology advances in Ukraine will slow down and possibly stop. Meanwhile Russian drone technology will catch up to that of Ukraine and then surpass it. Due to poor drone results Syrski will move drone pilots to the front lines. More people will desert. Eventually the Ukrainian line will collapse.
Russia will conquer Ukraine and Zelensky will form a government in exile. He will be able to continue posing as the hero of Ukraine while receiving financial support from Europe.
If Fedorov stays and Syrski goes it's likely that Russia will be forced to end hostilities and perhaps withdraw. At that point there will be an election which Zelensky will lose. He will be investigated for corruption and may end up in jail.
I don't think the effects would be quite that sharp: Ukraine was fighting before Fedorov, and will continue fighting after him, but if Zele doesn't backtrack and Sirsky stays while Fedorov goes, that would be a large negative for Ukraine in the balance.
It may be hard to imaging but is definitely within the realm of possibility.
Things were not going well for Ukraine before Fedorov came in. Everyone is celebrating the long range drone successes but things on the ground are still not great. Recent improvements are due to sidelining Syrsky. The rule of thumb is that the more Syrsky is involved in operations the worse things are. The less he is involved the better things are. With Syrsky back in control the drone warfare program will be kneecapped. Russians will resume their advance. Syrsky doesn’t care about winning the war - he is concerned about what Tom calls PRBS, Public Relations Bull Shit. A pointless attack that costs a lot of lives but gives a temporary victory looks good on social media. That’s all Yermak, the true leader of Ukraine, cares about. These guys all have escape plans for when things go bad.
I just cant trust Fedorov at all, he is just another tech-bro that hangs out with techno-facists likes alex karp (aka satan in human form), and his boasting of 35K russian dead per month which i find bs
Very interesting angle. He sounds, if anything, like one of Zelenskiy's clan and hardly someone Zelenskiy can fuck with. Different factions of one clan perhaps.
The 35k casualties are dead and wounded. Outside intelligence agencies have come around to agreeing that Ukraine's daily counts are fairly accurate (the more so now they're based on video evidence). And it's Robert Brovdi who is pushing for 40K per month.
As ever, you nailed it (sadly)
The fish rot from the head. That's the Soviet - Russian mindset, prefer loyalty over results. I've read this about the previous Poroshenko's gov. too. Zele is not detached from reality, he is just doing that style of Soviet ruling.
Marx once wrote to the effect that "the tradition of all the dead centuried weighs like a nightmare upon the brain of the living" - and that's certainly applicable to longstanding legacies of structural corruption.
...er, "generations" but you get the idea.
Zelenskyy is a puppet of the oligarchs, just like his entire oligarchic party, “Servant of the People,” which began to fall apart long ago when people loyal to Kolomoyskyi and other oligarchs started fleeing it. Yes, you’re right about the collaborator and looter Poroshenko, who in 2014 secured the support of FSB agent Firtash and Ukraine’s enemy Rinat Akhmetov. His governing style was exactly the same, relying on personal loyalty. This is very typical of the criminal oligarchic system that has long been established here since the 1990s.
Poroshenko appointed loyal idiots Viktor Muzhenko and Stepan Poltorak to leadership positions. The latter had served for a long time in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and lacked the competence to command the army. By the way, Poroshenko did exactly the same thing when Biden demanded that his compadre, that corrupt idiot Viktor Shokin, be removed from the post of Ukraine’s Prosecutor General. And do you know what that monster of a pig, Poroshenko, did? That’s right — he replaced him with another one of his compadres, Yuriy Lutsenko, who didn’t even have the proper education. And then, to help Trump defeat Biden in the election, these “useful idiots”—Viktor Shokin, Yuriy Lutsenko, and Andriy Derkach—stepped in. Derkach was later exposed in the U.S. as a Russian intelligence agent. After that, he fled Ukraine for Russia, where he was appointed as a member of parliament representing Putin’s party. In other words, Poroshenko, Trump, and Putin still share deeply entrenched interests and hidden backchannels. At the time, there was a huge scandal in the U.S., but in Ukraine, none of the oligarch-controlled media outlets or their puppet bloggers mentioned these exploits of our collaborationist looters.
Zele also is a puppet and servant of pudding, likewise the oligarchs.
Zele's, however more likely pudding party a “Servant of the People” is a fake non existent party. During its election it existed only on a paper, thus taking a part in 2020 election was completely illegal.
Do you think this could have the effect of increasing the number of desertions?
Yep, for sure. There were surveys about this topic already among "deserters". Also, while Ukraine is struggling with mobilization in general, some units, like 3rd separate brigade Azov, have enough new voluteers to join in.
Hi Tom. I confess to having thought that you were too harsh in your criticism of Syrsky. I was wrong. Now it's obvious for all to see. I have many highly educated Ukrainian friends, two of them have lived with me for 4 years. All detest Zelensky whilst admitting that he has generally performed well in European PR. This disaster at a time when Ukraine has almost managed to isolate Crimea and cripple the Russian oil industry. You would think that even Zelensky could see that when Z bloggers are exulting at this development, it may be a Very Bad Idea.
Apparently there was a meeting between Yermak and Syrsky yesterday...
So that corrupt liar without honor is still pulling the strings in the background.
Harry Truman had the courage to fire General McArthur. Sadly, Zelensky is no Hardy Truman.
F.D. Roosevelt being clever enough to favourise George C. Marshall - is, IMHO, a better example.
(BTW, IMHO, McArthur was a primadonna and megalomaniac. But, also, the Japan he's organised since 1945, is - essentially - 'working' until this very day.)
The post-war occupation of Japan was his greatest achievement. The preparation for WW2 or Korea, or the failure to take China seriously, not so much.
And like Zele his real skill was PR.
Right up until he faded away.
McArthur was certainly a prima-donna and megalomaniac and often a bundle of contradictions. He was a brilliant general who made several bone-headed mistakes that cost many lives. If you haven’t read American Caesar by William Manchester, I strongly recommend it. The constitution he wrote for Japan reflects American ideals better than the America’s government ever has.
Thx. Indeed, that book shaped my impression of McArthur.
Fedorov might be right, but he should have stopped at things pertaining to his former position. He is just a tech bro, who only 6 months ago discovered and added to his vocabulary words/concepts like tactical, operational, corps and brigades. And now he is making analyses on composition of land forces large formations, wtf ? To me, it seems more of a battle of who can steal more, between 2 rival factions in the same ministry. Attempts at major transformations, during an ongoing war, never end well and have dire consequences, unfortunately not only to the reformer, but to everybody.
Never heard a single bad word about Fedorov from any of authoritative contacts.
...and that with 'major transformations during an ongoing war' - has been discussed by Don and me, several times, in the articles listed at the end of the feature.
Point is: it's a lie that this never worked.
(Heh... even the Keystone Cops in Moscow are working better since Pudding sacked incompetent Shoygu and replaced him by Belousov. Arguably, Belousov retained Gerasimov, but run such beasty audits, that 'lots of heads were rolling'. It's just so that nobody is paying attention.)
I don't doubt his heart, only his competences in fields he knows nothing about. It's not a critique. just a reality. I am not talking about firing and replacing people, I am talking about trying to change the system on the go.
Yes, Russians sacked Shoygu and some other people, started running a tighter ship, but those are not systemic changes in the way they view and conduct the war. One major change did happen, indeed. When they rolled back to Divisions made up from Regiments, but their transition towards Brigades never truly finished before 2022 and they already had ample experience in running it this way.
In the case of Fedorov, I was referring to the clash of opinions I read about, one favoring an asymmetric (stupid term, I know, but be it) approach and the other, a more traditional one. I am with Syrskyi on this one.
I find that odd considering the asymmetric successes Ukraine is enjoying. Consider also the increased use of ground/aerial drone small scale assaults that preserve Ukrainian lives.
Drones are just a complement. not a replacement, for now at least. The lack of other means is also a factor in the increased usage of drones, it's a development born out of necessity, that's it, nothing more. You fight with what you have and plenty of.
Which asymmetric successes and how have they translated into the field ? Hitting refineries and transport vessels ? Yes, that is nice, it increases the price of war, but the Russian Army will be the last element of the society who will feel the pain.
Drones are the cause of 80% of the casualties. Because of drones, it's difficult for vehicles to survive on the battlefield. It's difficult for squad-sized units to survive on the front line. Artillery is useful, but its use has dramatically decreased since 2023. The attacks on the Russian air defenses were conducted primarily by drones. This, plus technological advances, led to the attacks on Russia's logistical vehicles and warehouses, which has already had an effect on the front line fighting. The long-range attacks are attacking Russian industries that create the equipment and the refineries that fuel the economy and military.
The Russian army is always prioritised over civilians but if there's less to prioritise because it's being hit en route to the front or because less of it's being made, then they simply won't receive it.
Yes, drones are the cause of 80% of the inflicted casualties, I don't know the exact figure, only the ones involved know for sure. If you take this statement as it is, it looks great. But why is that ? Is it because drones have proven superior or is it somehow corroborated with the lack of other systems and ammo for them ? Why has artillery usage decreased ? Same question behind it. But if the casualty rates have remained the same and only the percentages of which systems deals them changed, it's nothing to be praised and we go back to what I said previous, you fight with what you have. That is why I said I understand Syrski's point of view: I ask you for men, tanks, APCs, artillery and missiles etc. and you give me drones. F*ck you and your drones!
The attack on enemy AA was conducted by drones ? Why ? Is is because of a lack of ground based and air launched dedicated missiles and capabilities ?
I also don't understand what is asymmetric in attacking the enemy's logistics and war industry ? It's normal, these are normal targets, it has been done since the beginning of war as a concept. Same with propaganda, sabotage etc. . That's why I find this term stupid. In my mind, asymmetric actions would be terrorist attacks, which are designed to break the population's will to fight. Financing popular uprisings in your enemy's allied nations, regime changes, that sort of things. But hitting refineries and factories and calling it asymmetric is just a stupid term, coined my an even stupider media.
But I digressed, by quite a lot, from the subject of my original post. Fedorov, in his position as Minister, should be just an administrator, nothing more. I have zero info on his conduct as an administrator, so I cannot judge him at that. But when he speaks about subjects he know nothing about, then I draw the line. Unit composition, command and control, force generation and regeneration model, these are not attributes of an administrator and should stay out of it. He is there to facilitate, to answer the needs of the Army, not to push doctrinal changes. Half of what he wrote in that 11 point rant it's bullshit anyway. Brigade commanders don't know their subordinate units because they are idiots and poorly trained, not because of a lack of digitalization or whatever crap he says in there. But somehow his rant has found great appeal from Gen Z-iers and it seems it's a valid political tactic, if it's successful.
You still haven't heard a bad word about Fedorov, but in UA people are beginning to realize that Fedorov is a new puppet for future elections pushed by the kremlin rulers to replace a rotten Zele clown.
I guess you might not know what rushist Syrsky has created in his 'Skala' division which can be compared by torture and masacres to Auschwitz-Birkenau in Osviencim. His fate has been decided after that.
Fe isn't a tech, he is a marketing thug whose role in his business in 2019 was to cheat people, steal their money. He always was a part of Zele's team of looters and traitors from the beginning. There was a public sexual scandal with Fe involved recently.
Gauging by what you're 'listing' here that Donald and/or me don't know, it's obvious you don't know what Don and me do know - and have already published here.
Besides, if Fedorov is bad, why retain Syrsky?
Fire that incompetent, kick all of his buddies out of the GenStab and the ZSU. Let Fedorov work. If he turns out incompetent or corrupt = repeat the exercise until you find somebody who's better.
The worst thing one could do is to keep that idiot Syrsky in his position so he can keep Zele happy with 'Fantastic News'.
Are you talking about Miron Fedorov?
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/03/05/she-was-15-he-was-23
Wars are long listă of changes and transformations: civilian mobilization, industrial mobilization, weapon improvemrnts, tactica improvements, organizațional changes. Not to transform during a war is a vulnerability.
Weapon systems upgrades, tactical improvements, those are adaptations, nothing more. I am talking about war time transformations on your view on how to conduct war, on how you envisioned war and how you trained to fight it. Like those preached, unsuccessfully for now, by NATO's ACT. To give you an example, the way the Russian Army acted when they invaded Ukraine. The usage of the BTGs in an attempt to replicate the American Shock and Awe. This was unnatural to them, who have always been an artillery ground force, one that it's basing itself on superior firepower and superiority in the number of systems. Even their Airforce is required just to support the ground forces and nothing more. To take that Airforce and ask them to fight in the American Air Force style, that would be another example of the transformation I am talking about.
The Russians BTG were too few to carry the invasion. So Puțin declared mobilization.
The Russians have also deployed the DRG as the main fighting unit which is a big change for the Russian Army in terms of autonomă and comunications.
Honest question...who would/should replace Zele?
Fedorov, just for example.
(Sure, many are favouring Zaluzhny, but me thinks: he was much too a 'weather vane', too accommodating, and pliable, instead of actually taking decisions. Otherwise, he should've sacked nearly every single general already in March-April 2022.)
Zele has just boosted Federov to the top of the list of potential presidents with this move. He must have asked Donald what to do.
You are spot on!
Disappointing in a way, Fedorov is being trusted in the west to reform and manage Ukraine's MOD and by extension war effort.
The almost 5 year war is not looking good with also the unresolved matter with the corruption still with the Dutch-Ukraine solid motor fuel co production project.
Looking forward to you and Don's update.
People like Fedorov would have been fired in the US system as well.
Um...have already been ;)
Oh yes, and if! They wouldn't survive for six weeks.
Not US, in other countries, too. A subtle difference is, US does not fight for survival. UA cannot afford it.
every country is fighting for survival every day.
a meaningless platitude. Most of the countries are NOT currently being invaded and facing destruction/colonization - the survival of the US is NOT as threatened by its wrong choices as is Ukraine's. That's like seeing your friend's self-destructive spiral into drugs and depression and shrugging it off that everybody has some problems in their lives.
things add up, economic downturn, deterioration of middle class, enormous debt, spend a few hundred patriot missiles and PGMs here a few hundred there and then one day suddenly you find yourself in dire straits. Ukraine also made choices over the years that led here to this point. So has Russia.
Are you with a straight face suggesting that the CHANCE of the US to be militarily invaded, collapse, have a swath of its territory annexed by its mortal enemy and the rest become its colony - is COMPARABLE with that of Ukraine? Otherwise, you are comparing blueberries and watermelons.
And what's your overall message you wanted to convey to the reader - that Ukraine does not deserve our support because
1. they are nothing special since "every country is fighting for survival every day"
2. for the same reason - we'd better keep our Patriots for ourselves ("we are too fighting for our survival every day")
3. Ukraine "has made choices over the years that led here to this point" ???
And what's the point of your last sentence - to equate aggressor with the victim of the aggression??? BOTH "made choices that led them to this point", eh?
countries lose sovereignty in all sorts of ways
The US is fighting to save its democracy.
And is well on the track to lose that fight.
If you look at a large enough arc of history, the fight is never-ending. It moves back and forth between democracy and authoritarianism, and it's certainly closer to authoritarianism than it's ever been in my lifetime. As you say, there is a risk that it may cross the line. But there are a lot of factors still in play that still favor democracy. Engagement and education are the biggest issue.
If 100% of the populace were theoretically engaged, even including those who would support authoritarianism, democracy would win and the concentration of power in the hands of the few would be reduced. Apathy is a biggest danger to democracy, more than the despots themselves.
hard to keep people engaged and educated when they are being lied to and brainwashed 24/7 by their media and politicians
There's valid media out there. It does take work to figure out the truth, I agree.
Yes, this is exactly how it is, and it only causes disgust and sadness...
Zele could care less about opinion of some peasant Ukrainians, in the case of NABU protest he got a call from Ursula who told him that she just won't give Ukraine any more money and suddenly he changed his tune. This is unlike whatever the western "analysts" were saying that "omg Zele is so great - see he listens to his people".
In this case I don't see EU intervening or Zele sacking Syrskyi hence where I can only see this heading is bigger and bigger protests. And from there it will absolute and total chaos.
When I was young and someone said, "I was thinking about you yesterday," I was shocked. I couldn't believe anyone would think about me when I wasn't in front of them. I've never felt anyone cares what I think. I've always felt a stranger in a strange land. I'm used to living out there — and I enjoy it. Every time someone answers one of my comments here, a small part of me is surprised and tickled. I suspect it's somewhat the same for you, Tom, though I don't want to speak for you. Anyway, background out of the way.
Many people are emotionally attached to Ukraine as a real nation — people, friends, family trying to live good lives. Kind to others. Sharing common civilized values. Morality.
When I suggest (and I own this) that Ukraine is no longer a democracy but an oligarchy run to make money from war, to me it's just an opinion. Might be right, might be wrong. If people don't think about me, I don't see why they'd get upset about something I think. When someone does get upset — like Don a few weeks back — part of me wonders, why so emotional? It's just an opinion from someone who doesn't matter.
But the truth is, I'm just as upset. I just have a defense mechanism from childhood: defend myself through logic. So I can say, "Ukraine needs a meritocratic military." Others can agree or disagree. But there comes a point — and we're at it now — where it seems that will not happen. Then what?
Where do we go if we accept that Zelensky is deeply corrupt, and there's no fixing him or replacing him? What do we believe in then? Skepticism is no longer useful. We simply lost. Things weren't the way we wanted them to be. It's been gut-wrenching for me.
In a way, many in Ukraine have moved away from any morality or principle. It's simply "kill as many Russians as we can." That's it. Anyone who questions that is not on the team. Whatever the problems are, they can't be fixed, so let's just get on with it.
No time for philosophical talk. You're for Ukraine or Russia. No but-iffs.
Or put another way: you never really wanted to say "I told you so." But now you can. The problem is that "I told you so" is a judgment on all of us. We had ideals. We were wrong. We were deluded. It was always going to end this way.
I'm as upset as Don. We're all upset I believe. What way forward? I expect we'll continue doing what we do. But things will never be the same. We've reached the part of the movie, "It's just Chinatown, Jack"
auf dem wege zu einem anderen modernen demos-system in der Ukraine führt mE -heute- kein weg an der zwischenstufe -Stratokratie- vorbei.
Dies wäre mÜn die einzige möglichkeit das Ze-oligo-pluto-diebe-krimi-kratie-regime wegzuräumen. es ist schon soooooviel blut geflossen und leid und opfer u.u.u. wg. diesem klown und seiner qlicke
Und ja es ähnelt sich stark an einen putch. Und ja es gab schon sowas.
Pinocet. Und? Wo sind die probleme von Chili heute?
Eben.
Ukraine was always an oligarchy. To a great extent so is the US. The amount of power and influence that is held by a very small group of people that own the tech companies, the media, the financial institutions and of course the MIC is astonishing.
Yes, the oligarchy part in itself is not the root problem. It's the government in charge of the military. Parliament should have more power. Zelensky should be replaced if only for fresh ideas or more accountability. I don't have the answer. Like you said, same in the U.S.
It's all very sad, and the recriminations for this situation, which no signs of not getting progressively worse, both against Zelenskiy, the cliques that control the country, and the greater fools in NATO and especially I think in British policy circles that did much to exacerbate the disaster, will be equally grim.
Care to elaborate on that? You 're in danger of sounding like one of those ultranationalist Russian milboggers who blame everything on London.
Tom: when you say "Zele must go", what exactly do you mean? A coup d'etat? I don't think there is a legal way to remove him, even though his popular support now is probably on par with Yanukovich in 2014.
Another question is, what is his, and Sirsky's, popular support within ZSU?
Essentially, the question is what's more harmful in the middle of the war: keeping an incompetent ruler, or remove him with violence?
And assuming the ruler is kept, and Fedorov is replaced by another incompetent from the same magazine, what would you expect on the battlefield? After all, some innovations Fedorov pushed for are probably going to stay, and some others will be made anyway, despite the incompetent management. The dark forecast you've made here https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/after-pokrovsk hasn't quite materialized - yet. If Zele/Sirsky stay, what would be your updated forecast?
Starmer being replaced is not a coup d'etat. It is quite possible in a democracy. Zelensky can resign. No one is forcing him to stay in office.
Zelensky certainly can resign, but why would he do so? A lot of people, including his early supporters/allies, were begging him to at least unequivocally reject the possibility of a second term, but he hasn't done even that. I can't read his mind, but it looks like a lot of his actions are driven by the desire to maintain power. Some of those actions - including Fedorov's sacking - might actually have the opposite effect, but the intent is quite clear nonetheless, I'd say. Voluntary resignation would be the last thing expected from him.
With Fedorov gone the changes he made will be dismantled. The military will go back to purchasing poor quality and overpriced weapons from the people with the best connections. Technology advances in Ukraine will slow down and possibly stop. Meanwhile Russian drone technology will catch up to that of Ukraine and then surpass it. Due to poor drone results Syrski will move drone pilots to the front lines. More people will desert. Eventually the Ukrainian line will collapse.
Russia will conquer Ukraine and Zelensky will form a government in exile. He will be able to continue posing as the hero of Ukraine while receiving financial support from Europe.
If Fedorov stays and Syrski goes it's likely that Russia will be forced to end hostilities and perhaps withdraw. At that point there will be an election which Zelensky will lose. He will be investigated for corruption and may end up in jail.
I don't think the effects would be quite that sharp: Ukraine was fighting before Fedorov, and will continue fighting after him, but if Zele doesn't backtrack and Sirsky stays while Fedorov goes, that would be a large negative for Ukraine in the balance.
It may be hard to imaging but is definitely within the realm of possibility.
Things were not going well for Ukraine before Fedorov came in. Everyone is celebrating the long range drone successes but things on the ground are still not great. Recent improvements are due to sidelining Syrsky. The rule of thumb is that the more Syrsky is involved in operations the worse things are. The less he is involved the better things are. With Syrsky back in control the drone warfare program will be kneecapped. Russians will resume their advance. Syrsky doesn’t care about winning the war - he is concerned about what Tom calls PRBS, Public Relations Bull Shit. A pointless attack that costs a lot of lives but gives a temporary victory looks good on social media. That’s all Yermak, the true leader of Ukraine, cares about. These guys all have escape plans for when things go bad.
I just cant trust Fedorov at all, he is just another tech-bro that hangs out with techno-facists likes alex karp (aka satan in human form), and his boasting of 35K russian dead per month which i find bs
Very interesting angle. He sounds, if anything, like one of Zelenskiy's clan and hardly someone Zelenskiy can fuck with. Different factions of one clan perhaps.
The 35k casualties are dead and wounded. Outside intelligence agencies have come around to agreeing that Ukraine's daily counts are fairly accurate (the more so now they're based on video evidence). And it's Robert Brovdi who is pushing for 40K per month.
But I agree with you about Karp.
Thank you, Tom, for your honest and correct assessment of the situation in Ukraine.