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Ty for the updates Tom

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Apr 7Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Talking about EW-monster tank, it was hit by kamikaze drone (wing type) with auto locking of target at the end of trajectory, so it ignored EW at the end. Honestly, it shows that there is no wonder weapon, but wonder system, because a few artillery shells close to it would destroy unprotected by tank armor jammers or generator , whereas FPV would end them.

Thanks for report

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Both sides are working hard on “target tracking”, “target lock”, “target detection automation”. So, who comes to implementation first, will have a huge advantage

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Apr 7Liked by Sarcastosaurus

"the Russians have heavily targeted a base of the Territorial Defence in southern Zaporizhzhya (city)"

I'll try to be careful. JSC Motor-Sich and the territory of the 55 artillery brigade are near. The local territorial defence brigade is in another place. This information from open sources, where the hit was done I can't say.

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Do you seriously think they don't know what they are hitting two times in a row in conditions where their UAV are hanging over the city most part of the day and the place of hit is clearly seen from the crowded place?

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Of course, the Russians knew where their missiles were aiming. I mean Tom is mistaken (twice). I can't say more because SBU can become interested in me. Perhaps after some time, I can tell the details. For instance, today we know everything about the missile attack on Zaporizhzhya on 6 and 9 October 2022.

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Apr 7Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Many thanks for your update, Tom. It comes just in time to me to show some pro-RuZZians around here how the info must be delivered, nor the western media twisted half truth, less the ruZZian outright lies.

Keep on!

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Thanks Tom. Yes, strikes should continue but unfortunately Ukraine is supposed to build everything itself(drones, FPVs, long-range missiles) while the collective West sends from time to time 10-15k shells.

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Dear Tom, I really don't like the way you're speaking about the 'west'. Without it, Ukraine would already have been defeated. There is only one successful way forward, actually together.

Constructive criticism is always welcome, appreciated and necessary; to use it as an rhetorical device for self-aggrandizement doesn't conform to your own high standards.

Keep up your almost impeccable efforts!

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Apr 7Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I am a westerner, but I am not offended by Toms criticism. I am offended that Western countries dosent support Ukraine with more money and equipment. We need to understand tha Ukraine is currently buying our freedom in blood. We should be able to cough up the money and equipment. (But yes, we have supported. Probably surprising for Mr Master Stregiest in Kremlin.)

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Thanks for your high opinion about my standards.

Please excuse me that I have 0 understanding, and only offence for idiots called 'top Western politicians' and their corruption, intrigues and machinations: there is nothing 'positive' coming to my mind regarding their behaviour vis-a-vis Ukraine.

....even more so because, if they - after ten/two years of this fracas - still do not understand and do not care to do more than 'do something' regarding Ukraine, for reasons like 'this is not cost effective' or 'but the other guy pays me more to administer in his/her interest', then we must expect them to sell all of us to Putin at the first best opportunity. From my POV, all the gangs in charge west of Oder require being sacked on the spot and investigated for corruption, stupidity and treason.

....and since I am not in a position to effect this on my own, all that's left is damning them without an end.

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Apr 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Not only Western Politicians, but also Western societies are a very heterogeneous, diverse group: You and me and everybody else among us have very strong opinions and it seems almost impossible, that eventually, there will be a general consensus in vital questions. The only chance to improve our lot is - unlike them - to speak with each other in good faith by means of arguments.

There is no simple and obvious solution, other than taking into account and weighing up all opinions to negotiate a compromise with reason and logic.

That's too slow for your and my and over all the Ukrainian People's convenience. But verbal abuse and slander will not speed up the desired action.

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Apr 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Your analysis of the Western society is of course to some degree correct. We are disagreeing, bickering, opinionated… and a true consensus is difficult to find. Still, actually public support for Ukraine has been large. And some support has been given, but probably less than what people believe. Also some politicans could probably do more with the mandate they have. Germany could send both Taurus missiles and Patriots, and they could send it quicker. France has other options. So Even within the limitations of the public support I think the current leaders could do more. But your comment are not a disagreement on that, but a disagreement on strategy for influencing. Here I must disagree with you. Your argument is basically that we must be politi to influence. I think there are enough who has tried that strategy, for instanser Ukraine itself. I think some cursing and yelling is in place.

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Apr 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

In this respect Tom is fully right. If the West would like to end the war in Ukraine, they have all the means to do so. Western market economy has lots of advantages BUT it's driven by one thing: profit. Just look at the Covid-crisis. Where at the official start of the pandemic (around March20) the outlook for vaccines was: It takes at least 5 years of development. And then in December20 (9 months later) they rolled out the first vaccine batches and in another 6 months they went from "severe shortage" to "we can literally flood the market". Just because Western politicians gave the pharmaceutical industry sort of a blanco cheque. That's like a blend of drug and steroid for capitalists and market economy. If they would do the same for arms industry, I'm sure they would drown Ukraine with ammo and weapons within a year.

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That's actually not as simple as that. The drug development takes 5 years or more because of the slow investment, the large number of experiments/trials and the thorough regulatory process. Also, there are many molecules in trials and most of them fail. In case of Covid it was huge investment and many of the regulatory steps were on fast-forward or even by-passed. So it is not only profit, but the ratio profit/losses and what a company can afford without going bankrupt. And the societal interest. When it is Covid, one can expect profit, so there is investment. In case of orphan drugs, it is a completely different story.

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Apr 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Nothing is "simple", but when you promise investors the profit margin of their lifetimes (as happened with the Covid vaccines) you can be sure that they let hell break loose to achieve it and that they are also pressing politicians to by-pass regulations, push 24h hours to get machinery, supplies, raw materials and staff to produce.

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You are making assumptions, and thre truth is not very close :) These things are done on governments' money, not on investors' money. This is why I gave the example of orphan drugs. Investors can make enough money on OTC drugs and obesity control pills. Do we need medicines for rare diseases? Do we need cures for cancer? Do we need something fast to combat a pandemic? Then it's a public health issue, not investor's issue. So it's not investor's gain, but instead it is "loss" of public money. If you want to call it a loss; I would say it is a necessity. Like in the case of helping Ukraine in this war. We cannot let the private market to solve the issue, whatever profit they can make.

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Where did I say that it is a loss of money? IMHO with a "whatever it takes" approach flooding Ukraine with the ammo and weapons it needs, this war would be over soon and in the end less public money would have been wasted, than with this "here some millions", "there one billion", approach, which just grants Ukraine too much to die, but too less to live.

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Well, then I have misunderstood something, I am sorry. Yes indeed. Maybe I am being naive, but I hope they have a good reason for that. Otherwise it's nonsense. Democracy replaced with survival of the fittest (or richest, depending upon the case).

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The 60 long-range drones sent to the airfields hit next to nothing.

Much smaller waves of drones succeeded in destroying multiple refineries.

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Any visible results apart from a Telegram “babovna”? Any shortage of gas, diesel, any town with a line in front of the gas stations? Much more work is needed for both kind of targets - military and infrastructure

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Yes, I know there is some damage; some capacity is off and there are some financial costs. Yet, where are the results of the strike? Are the refineries being hit just for the sake of being hit? Where are the disruptions to the fuel supply - if not to the fuel supply to the military (which is a long way off), at least to some local civil market? How is this helping the war effort? I mean even if nothing was hit in Morozovsk, and it was a failure , it doesn’t mean that the “air” campaign should stop- better make some conclusions, change the coordinates a bit and continue with more powerful strikes.

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More powerful strikes need more time to prepare. And there may be a blocker for the damage - for example, if the Russians fly all their planes to another airfield as soon as they locate a wave of drones. Even if you wait for half a year and collect a thousand of drones and send them together - the airplanes will still avoid any damage.

The fuel supply and logistics may deteriorate when 70% or 80% of refineries are hit.

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Fuel supply chain typically contains a week or two worth of consumption - between the refineries themselves, pipelines, storage depots, railroad and truck tanks, etc. If only 15% of supply capacity was taken offline, and there was probably at least 5...10% of spare capacity elsewhere, then the primary deficit of the order of 5...10% would be felt at gas stations only in a few months - by that time, at least some of the damage to refineries will already been repaired.

However, if Ukraine manages to sustain the same rate of attacks for those few months, and keep the same ~15% of capacity offline, we might actually see the lines at gas stations. And once they start to form, everybody would feel an urge to fill up, which will not be easy to satiate.

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Decrease in production is 15% and to have serious impact we need 60 or more. Some rafinérie s are far away so not sure if UA can manage it. But to stop glide bombs you need to destroy some hundreds of small moving targets. You need maybe 1000 drones per month with better final navigation. On other side rafinérie is big static high explosive target.

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The Kremlin imposing a six-month ban on gasoline exports to try and meet domestic demand, while gas prices in the country have risen since the spate of attacks.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/03/01/russia-declares-a-six-month-moratorium-on-gasoline-exports_6576796_4.html

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Russia has asked Kazakhstan to stand ready to supply it with 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks and outages, three industry sources told Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/

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After even Lloyd Austin slammed the attacks, I should admit that they were more effective than I thought.

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Because oil refinery is much less protected by EW and SAMs target, that is also bigger, more noticable from drone and will not escape after warning. It like difference between GMLRS and Agm 65 maverick , because first one can't lock moving targets

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Right, as long as Ukraine gets target-locking long distance drones, they may be able to hit airports as well. But supersonic/ballistic missiles are much better for hitting such targets without leaving enough reaction time to the targets.

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Not too surprising, I have to say.

So, back to hitting stationary refineries, this target might be more productive in the medium term.

If you want to hit airports, you need supersonic/ballistic missiles. Long range drones are too slow and the airplanes have enough time to evacuate

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I don’t know how GUR come up with its estimates about the damaged planes. I think that after the difficult period of 2014-2015, ZSU which had very unreliable reporting about the war operations (Ivailovsk, Debaltseve, that block post with a number etc) has come a long way to earn the trust - firstly of the Ukrainian citizens, and then of foreign observers like me. While GUR is still acting like a PR agency….

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Apr 7Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I haven't found any official statement about planes. Everything that I saw were publications of Ukrainian and Western media, that references to some anonymous sources in GUR/SBU. So,maybe, some worker really said it to media, but officially GUR didn't say, so in this case, it shouldn't be any reputation damage or accusation, because media can say any bullshit , referencing to official sources. So unless speaker of GUR or Genstab said it( if yes it would be good to see), statements are not connected to GUR and are either personal opinion of one worker or typical media rubbish

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What you describe is even worse. The SBU/GUR are playing (with) the media - not that this doesn’t happen all the time in the “collective” West.

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Playsible deniability and all that, you know...

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Apr 7Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Secondly, honestly it is impossible to see damage from satellite, if it didn't cause fire and full destruction of plane. Actually against planes it is much more logical to use shrapnel warhead and airburst, because they are more fragile than tanks and even a few pieces can disable plane for weeks or months, just look at ka 52 after cluster Atacams( there were about 20 holes from explosion of subwarhead, that would fit in drone) . I've also seen satellite photo of Eisk and there was something like big leak of fuel near training plane Tu 134 and a trace of drone explosion. I don't say that it is an evidence at all, but if Russians will not publish close photo, only way to find out is either full destruction of plane or reduced activity.

So, Tom is right to continue regularly bombing VKS field

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Yes, I also thought so. The Russians also had some time to clean their base after the attack

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IMHO "double tap" was introduced by UK/USA - operation Gomora, Hamburg 1943 or Dresden 1945. ;-)

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author

Well, if you check it that way then it was introduced by the same instance and at the same time intentional air strikes on civilians were introduced: by the British in Iraq of 1920, within frame of their 'air policing'...

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Súre, you are right. So, why you púť this invention into favour of russia? Anyway, it is inention introduced by democratic West, and mosty used by western democratic countries.

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In favour of Russia? Me? Please, check what I wrote.

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mea culpa, Israelis... but anyway, inventors were UK... but frankly speaking... it recover me the tactics, when osman digged holes under fortifications and defenders used double tap when they undermine, undermined corridors... anyway, forgot it, mea culpa, excellent work done by you. Thanks

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Is Chasiv Yar doomed? The Ukrainians never seem able to hold on to any one point when the Russians really concentrate on attacking it. Can we still hope that at some point the rate of Russian losses will cause the tide to turn? If Speaker Johnson does finally allow that vote, will the Russians quail, or have good reason to quail?

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Speaker Johnson is a man of no importance who thanks to circumstances can wage life and death of thousands of people (let us hope that not of the millions). It is a shameful situation nobody in question is ashamed of.

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I was hoping to have someone counteract the pessimism of my question! Johnson may be a nobody, but seemingly a nobody of great importance suddenly. I am still hoping that the Russians will have reason to worry if Johnson finally does the famous Right Thing

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The things a marionette of a madman does are neither right nor wrong. Trump is manipulating not only Johnson but the American society in a disastrous way.

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Apr 8·edited Apr 8Author

The way things are right now: yes, Chasiv Yar is doomed.

It is already savaged by glide bombs and the Russian artillery, and the Russian troops are now inside the village. Whenever this happens, the Ukrainians start losing troops: instead of k.... cuddling 15-30 Russians for every own loss, the 'exchange ratio' is down to 2 or 3 for 1. That's when they have no options but to withdraw.

....even more so if there is no artillery ammunition, mortar bombs must be re-calibrated in order to fit available mortars, FPVs are all blocked by the Russian EW, and there are no other heavy weapons at hand.

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Apr 7·edited Apr 7Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the update, Tom. Today GUR claimed 7 Russian jets to be hit in Yeysk: 4 Su-30CM, 1 amphibia and two transport planes. Whether the information is valid we shall see.

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I don't believe Biden has no ability to pass aid. I do not believe that petty clerk Johnson can paralyze the decision on the allocation of aid. The USA began to lose its position as a world leader when people who did not know the Second World War came to power. This generation of politicians is more concerned with their personal interests, vanity and narcissism than with responsibility for world politics. It started with Clinton, took hold under Obama, and reached stunning cynicism under Biden.

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I too feel surprised that Biden doesn’t just do something even if it’s legally questionable. Lincoln did

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Apr 7·edited Apr 7

Feels like both side use the subject for political score on the election.

Rep to claim : see, they want to throw money for foreigners instead of you.

Dem to claim : see, they side with Putin and dictators instead of democracy and freedom (that same democracy and freedom which is doing so nice to Palestinians).

Typical Washington DC BS. Scrap that, typical Western politicians BS.

I doubt this will be solved before the elections are done.

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Biden is a very old man, he should be resting by now and I think he listens to his advisors more. Listen to what Sullivan said recently: If we give a lot of weapons to Ukraine, Russia will launch a nuclear strike on the US. What nonsense, the same nonsense about the Russian army rebuilding after 2022. I guess using a golf cart is how they rebuilt their tank capabilities.

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If an old man is trying with all his might to stay in power, why is he better than dictators? If he is a puppet in the hands of his entourage, that is even worse. I have superimposed the chronology of world events on the terms of the Democratic and Republican presidents. Tao makes it very clear that most of the world's chaos and shame for the United States occurred under the Democrats. On the contrary, tough world politics are characteristic of Republican presidents.

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Apr 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Somehow you are conveniently forgetting W and Trump. They were the people who caused the US to really lose standing. And the threat of Trump’s return is what is causing the world to completely discount the US as a reliable partner.

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I'm not a fan of Trump, but let's look at the facts: In 2014, the Obama Administration, led by Biden, pretended nothing was happening at all. Some kind of paper sanctions were announced, which no one noticed. No real assistance was provided to Ukraine, and arms supplies were categorically refused. When Trump became president, despite all the statements about friendship with Putin, he did not ease the sanctions regime, and Javelins appeared in Ukraine. Trump started an economic war against China, which is now Russia's main technological sponsor. Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran and imposed additional sanctions against it. Biden brought it all back and now Iran is supplying Putin with UAVs and ballistic missiles. North Korea has been quiet under Trump. All the fluff aside, what is Trump saying now? And he says absolutely the right things - Europeans, increase your military budgets! Why should the United States protect those who do not want to defend themselves? And these statements have effect - NATO countries are finally concerned about their armies and defense industry

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Just one note: Iran is not supplying Russia with ballistic missiles - and is not going to do so unless the Russians release all the technical data on Su-35s: so much so that Iranians could, if they want to do so, manufacture these at home.

....and that's something Putin can't let happen.

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Apr 9·edited Apr 9
author

And? Where are these 'Iranian missiles'?

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Apr 9·edited Apr 9

DUBAI, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Iran has provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters, deepening the military cooperation between the two U.S.-sanctioned countries.

Iran's provision of around 400 missiles includes many from the Fateh-110 family of short-range ballistic weapons, such as the Zolfaghar, three Iranian sources said. This road-mobile missile is capable of striking targets at a distance of between 300 and 700 km (186 and 435 miles), experts say.

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In general, I wanted to say about North Korean missiles...their use seems to have already been confirmed by the US administration

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Apr 7·edited Apr 7Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I’m surprised why special drones are not yet used against electronic warfare systems? Automatic targeting to a radio source is much easier than a secure communication channel with a drone, much less using image recognition (so-called AI)?

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you can have the antenna in a separate place from the signal jammer/generator

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Signal transmission from the final amplifier to the antenna has large power losses, which is why the antenna is placed in the same block with the transmitter. This is the most expensive part of the radio system. Well, suppression of electronic warfare is only important during an attack by attack drones. Anti-electronic warfare drones are launched in the first wave, followed by shock drones. This tactic works great in aviation when suppressing air defenses with HARM missiles, why not use it for drones?

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Why not use a long cable to transfer the signal between the amplifier and the antenna? Like the ethernet cable between the Starlink terminal and the router

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Coaxial cables are used to transmit radio signals; the higher the signal power, the greater the losses. There are also large losses in the connectors. A communication line for transmitting a powerful signal will cost more than a transmitter with an antenna.

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If the price is survival of the equipment and the crew...

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How will a jammer antenna installed 100m from the tank help the survival of equipment and crew? And how will she move behind this tank?

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Hey now, that quadrangle you drew includes Canada. Not fair to lump them in with us dumb Americans :)

They've got their own issues, but these aren't a tenth as banal and boring as the ones eating away at the USA. Says a lot that it takes staff employed by a celebrity chef that Biden knows personally to make him issue stern words to Israel.

In America, the value of a human being scales with their proximity to celebrity. Small wonder Zelensky plays the part of the showman. What other choice does anyone in his position have?

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Russia has used double tap in Syria extensively since 2011.

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Never mind, Tom must have meant, RU learned it from Israel already prior to 2011. (sarcasm)

Tom's attempts to portray Israel in a negative light at every turn are remarkable though.

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author
Apr 8·edited Apr 8Author

Aha. And the country came into being and its existence is maintained through peace, love, and indoctrination in tolerance, eh?

And it is not so as if Biden, Blinken, and Sullivan are coming to such absurd ideas like 'we're going to convince Putin to abandon his alliance with Iran so Iran does not threaten Israel - and because of this we can't deliver any kind of serious amounts of advanced weapons to Ukraine'....?

....but of course, that's all my 'anti-Semitism' and it must be nice to live in fool's paradise...

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....and that's making the Israeli development of this tactics, back in the 1980s and 1990s 'untrue'....?

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Apr 7Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you, Tom.

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