Ukraine War, 7 April 2024:

Ukraine War, 7 April 2024

Hello everybody!

In brief…

AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

The Russians continue pestering Ukraine with their 12-14 ’Shaheds a night’. Yesterday, they’ve added few cruise missiles and Kh-59s to that, and some did get through. The last night was ‘Shaheds only’ again…

Additinally, on 5 April, the Russians have heavily targeted a base of the Territorial Defence in southern Zaporizhzhya (city): not that they have hit the place, actually, but when rescuers and firefighters (folllowed by journos) converged to the sites hit by Russian missiles, these were hit by additional rockets… I see this as a definite confirmation that the Russians have learned about the ‘double tap’ practice from the Israelis…

Further south, the Russians continued glide-bombing and rocketing the rear of the Ukrainian frontline within the triangle between Novooliksandrivka - Halytsynivka - Pokrovsk. As mentioned in (at least) one of earlier reports, the latter is some 40km behind the frontline, but the primary logistical hub of the ZSU in this part of Ukraine. I’ve just got no specific idea what exactly are they trying to hit there, because what they do hit are private homes: no storage depots, not the local railway station, none of roads or bridges…

A scene from (what journos are describing as ‘village of Pokrovsk’), early on 5 April.

As for results of the Ukrainian nocturnal strikes on the Russian air bases during the night from 4 to 5 April…. According to all available reports, attacked were actually four air bases (from north towards south), and with following results:

-          Engels-2: Ukrainians claimed 3 Tu-95 bombers as damaged, and up to 8 ground personnel killed, but I haven’t seen any kind of evidence for this yet; even if, only non-operational Tu-95s are still there; all the operational examples have been evacuated to Olenya AB, on the Kola Peninsula, already the last year.

-          Kursk (East): multiple detonations were reported, but nobody is talking about any kind of ‘results’.

-          Morozovsk: Ukrainians claimed the destruction or damage of 6-8 Su-34s, but latest sat photos are not indicating anything more than 2-3 craters about 100-150m away from the main apron, and different other installations. Apparently, while trying to disarm one of unexploded UAVs, 6-8 Russians were wounded.

-          Yeysk: Ukrainians claimed the destruction of two Su-25s, but I haven’t seen any kind of related evidence.

Bottom line: this was a big strike – especially so in the case of Morozovsk – but still undertaken by UAVs that are lacking terminal guidance. Means: they were pre-programmed to hit specific coordinates; their operators had no option of last-minute corrections, so to target (for example) a long-row of Su-34s tidily parked in a long line at the main platform of that air base. As a consequence, the few that did get through have all missed. Operations from this, one air base, might have been slowed down for a few hours, but that was about that.

That said, cannot but ‘demand’ many more such strikes. Not only on Morozovsk and Yeysk, but also on Kursk, Buturlinovka, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Vityazevo, Saki, Belbek and Dzhankoi (plus, at least occasionally, on Mariupol and Melitopol). Best would be for each of these to get hit at least two times a week: this is the only way to start seriously hampering VKS operations and resulting glide-bomb attacks.

Of course, obtaining the capability to run such an intensive campaign is going to take some time until enough UAVs are manufactured, but: this is simply the only way forward, right now. Even more so because, in Zelensky’s own words, the PSU only has enough surface-to-air missiles left for around one month of intensive combat.

With all the Western politicians continuing to behave like gangs of endemically corrupt boozers on a trip caused by a cocktail of Fentanyl, Cocaine, Methamphetamines, and Heroin – there is simply no other solution. And the clock is now ticking. Even more so because…

BATTLE OF DONBAS

Kremina… The Russians have renewed their assaults in direction of Terny, but these were all smashed by mines, FPVs and mortar fire. At least the Ukrainian FPVs deployed in this sector are still ‘working’, i.e. not all jammed by the Russian electronic warfare.

Russian troops running away from a T-72 knocked out by a mine while assaulting in the direction of Terny, some 3-4 days ago (Ukrainian positions are to the RIGHT of the visible sector).

Bakhmut… the Russians are back to all-out attacks on Chasiv Yar. Three days ago (4 April), one, massive, assault (some 30+ vehicles were involved) was broken up before reaching the eastern side of the place (‘Kanal District’) – and that by a combination of mines, FPVs, mortar fire and even a few DPICM shells fired by the 45^th Artillery Brigade ZSU.

However, a day latter the Russians - following a series of tremendous air strikes by UMPks - have deployed another assault group of the VDV (total of 32 tanks and BMPs). Gauging by videos released in the Russian social media, these have reached Chasiv Yar along the Road 0506 almost entirely unmolested – without hitting mines, and without being hit by FPVs, artillery or mortars. Obviously, Ukrainians either lacked the means to deploy new mines, or never managed to do so, or both of that plus were hit heavily by the Russian glide bombs - and then the Russians have adjusted their electronic countermeasures well-enough to jam everything flying their way.

Thus, Ukrainians were limited to firing back only once the Russians were near, letting them unload troops and provide covering fire. Result: since 5 April, the Russians are entrenched inside the Zelenaya Street and meanwhile trying to reach the Siversky Donets – Donbas Canal.

….that’s the problem with FPVs: just like this has happened to the Russians, last month, now the Ukrainian UAVs are ‘block jammed’, and when that happens then there is a big problem.

…which is something that couldn’t happen to artillery shells – all provided any kind of systematically incompetent morons in charge of the ‘West’ would finally come to the idea to supply some… instead, they’re nowadays shipping mortar bombs that are not fitting any kind of tubes used by the ZSU, so that Ukrainians are busy re-shaping thousands of these to the necessary calibres… (and re-shaping every takes at least 10-15 minutes, all provided one has the necessary tools… so, now think about how long is that going to take…)

Further south, the Russians did attack into the western side of Ivanivske, but available reports about that area are not enough to draw any useful conclusions.

If there is any kind of ‘good news’ from the Chasiv Yar area, then that - back on 4 April - Ukrainians have managed to capture this T-72 equipped with that new Russian ‘laundry machine-sized’ EW-system installed on its top. Means: they’ll be able to study it and find a solution… lets hope this is going to become available on time.

Avdiivka… at least the Russians haven’t got enough EW-systems for this section of the frontline, plus the Group Tsentr of the VSRF can’t run any bigger- than company-sized assault operations. Thus, the 47^th Mech and other units smashed at least two Russian assaults on Berdichy, the last few days. That said, the brigade lost another M2/3 Bradley, too… (as usually, this was a ‘mobility kill’; see, the Bradly hit a mine or was hit into the threads and thus immobilisied, and then Ukrainians were unable to tow it back to their lines).

….every success has its price…

Further south, Ukrainians are denying this, but the Russians claim to have at least a shallow bridgehead west of the Durna River, south of Semenivka. Now, before anybody starts complaining in style, ‘but why do you listen to them…’ - mind that

a) Ukrainians (especially Ukrainian officials) are never ‘keen’ to ‘boast’ with the loss of another piece of terrain, and

b) as mentioned already so often, a ‘bridgehead’ is always something like ‘priority No. 1’ in the Russian military mindset. And once there is one, then it’s becoming ‘priorities No. 1 to 100’, too…

That’s why.

***

…and that’s about it for today. Sorry if I’m not offering any longer analysis: it seems that another of super-turbo-incompetent US officials has recently stated something in style of, ‘Russia has almost completely reconstituted its armed forces’. I’ve got no problem to admit: I’ve abandoned all hope for the US politics and politicians at least around 2012, and thus do not follow any more what is which of talkingheads anywhere between Anchorage, San Diego, Boston and Miami babbling. So much so, I cannot stop wondering why is any of foreign politicians meeting them any more….?

But, so many are now asking about my assessment of that statement that I’ve got to busy myself with finding out who was it, and what exactly did he (or she?) say, and (except for booze and dope) how did he (or she?) come to such a ridiculous idea… 🙄