Good morning everybody! For today, I’ve prepared a review of latest developments on the battlefield, and some ‘analysis’ (or: call it ‘ranting’) of the US behaviour in regards of this war. AIR/MISSILE WARFARE The last few days, the Russian missile offensive on Ukraine slowed down, considerably: to something like releasing 4-6 cruise missiles, Shahed LPGMs or Kh-59 PGMs a day, most of which are then shot down by Ukrainian air defences.
Thanks a lot for your great reporting! We sit around doing almost nothing in Europe while the Ukrainians fight for their, and also our, freedom. In your opinion, what is the best way to financially support the Ukrainian army personal that have to do this terrible fight? You once mentioned the Come Back Alive foundation.
There is also an crowdfunding initiative (already 23M€) in cooperation with Czech government and UA embassy in CZ, you can choose from different options to support (weapons, ammo, medical, demining...)
"Come back alive" ("повернись живим") and "Sergij Prytula foundation" is two biggest foundation in Ukraine. Also is lot of local volunteer groups (like "port frankivsk" for example, who literally produce hand-made fpv-drones). And of course lot of people, who personal try find money for cars, mavics, night vision sys etc for them combat units. Illustration of this kind of "job" you can see on facebook profile ukrainian poet Sergij Zhadan. Thank you!
It's hillarious, how you ignore(intentionally? idk) simple google search. Type "Prytula satellite" and you'll see a bunch of relevant articles on a topic of results and gains. Even more, a wiki page on "People's satellite" with dedicated "Reported results” section with a summery.
Google search does not prove anything. Have you seen any images sattelite made of russiest positions in ukrainian media? I'm not. For example illegal russiest Crimea bridge after any attack was always showed with US Maxar satellite help.
1. Because ICEYE is not an optical telescope. Imagery it provides is more like electromagnetic "echolocation" data. It has to be transformed and processed to give some intel.
2. Foundation bought one satellite, but got an access untill the end of war to the whole constellation of satellites that are already in orbit(answer to pre-edited "why not see rocket make brrr").
Thanks for the link. However if minister of defence was involved here, the people who funded this project should expect a dirty deal. Not sure if it was realy required for ZSU, if NATO provides all required satellite intel during this war and if all the amount of money paid was reasonable price.
Minister of Defence, mentioned with big thanks to Prytula, is widely known to be very corrupted person with supplying so called "golden eggs", 4 times more expensive than in retail winter jackets for army, paying in advance 36 billions UAH for ammunition supply, which have never took place. Thus, he cannot be trusted.
Hi Kurt, understand you. You don't want to fund any many middle-persons standing between your money and the Ukrainian army. Well, I came back today from 2 weeks Kyiv. I went directly to the persons that are busy with drones and grads. If interested I won't mind sharing contacts.
There are also several good initiatives providing old ambulanses, terrain vehicles and fire trucs here from Norway. I would assume that there are similar organisations elsewhere in Europe. There are many ways to support, but look locally where you can evaluate better yourself.
The best way to support UA army is to buy what they argently need (usually surveillance drones, night vision optics) and send directly to the front line without any middle persons.
Aug 29, 2023·edited Aug 29, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Finally! How long am I suppossed to wait for my summaries
"except that the ZSU is doing certain things on its own, about which I’m not going to talk in the public" can you at least share if it has positive or negative impact on the battlefield?
US already achieved it's real objective in this war with the blowing up of the Nord Stream and the EU pivot from Russian gas to American LNG. From that moment onwards they will only do damage control and a quite a little bit of money.
Which part of my statement is untrue and never happen ? Nord Steam ? EU switch from Russian energy to US one and some other sources, but mostly US ? US based companies and individuals making handsome profits during the war ?
Try to learn smth before making this type of BS. US gave Ukraine nearly no credits at all. Germans - yes, large credits aside of direct material aid. US - not even lease, just material aid without any obligations aside of "no resale, no use on Russian native territory".
Not really. Here is where the "damage control" part kicks in. If they had stopped, what would have been the message? We support you untill our coffers are full? Plus, there is still money to be made, right now and after the conflict will end.
Hahaha… is this the way you live? Every single thing that happens in the world you feel it necessary to construct a conspiracy around it that explains it ‘your way’
Tom, let me spare you the effort - having a PhD in nuclear and particle physics had a negligible effect on my understanding of the warfare. Your articles on the other hand keep being an eye opener.
A very optimistic and highly informative report! Really USA wants to rule and to use this war by balancing between the negotiations with Putler (it is impossible but the USA is not ready to accept the truth) and attempts to frighten him with the perspectives of the "growing difficulties" (none in fact) in Russia. I wonder how people with such mediocre mental capacities have reached the highest positions in the American administration. But maybe just because of it.
Being of the west, but not an American or Ukrainian, I can speak free of self interest.
I think that the Americans main wish is to live their lives peacefully, free to pursue life liberty happiness and the dollar. When Ukraine was attacked they could have paid lip service (see Obama in regards to mass civilian murders in Syria), and wait to meet Putin in NATO boundaries (like they did when Putin invaded Georgia).
Instead the current American administration (and also many private initiatives) rose up to the occasion and provided such a massive aid as was not seen in years !
Yes, they made many mistakes, but most of the great military experts were surprised by many things in this war (i.e. drones patrolling the air such that no unit is safe and large formations get instantly decimated, the importance of artillery, etc.).
And yes, they hesitated and are still hesitating over providing some types of important equipment.
And yes, some (many ? most ?) of them are overly full of themselves.
But, and there is a HUGE but here, they are standing massively by Ukraine, in word and in deed, and that, first and foremost, has to be in front of all those critics of the USA behavior in this war.
Personally, I think all Ukarainian should and probably do feel deep gratitude to that great nation which stands so staunchly by their side.
And yes, too, the american's support should be constantly evaluated and criticized, because that is the only way to improve. The united states must not be a holy cow (that cannot be criticized), that is the way to sure failure. They should be Ukraine's best friends and there should be open discussions and a lot of disagreements between them until this war is over and Putin's hordes are defeated and sent back to their original borders.
And finally, many thanks Tom for your great work !
Thank you for your comment. Be sure everybody in Ukraine is grateful to the USA. I am sure nobody even imagined that the war can be so cruel and the Russian hordes so savage. But as long as USA consider themselves the main champion for liberty and democracy (as it is constantly declared everywhere) this country is obliged to act according to its claims.
To be successful the leader must not be above his followers but be on their level. Some Nazi propagandist advised to look for a pig inside a man and to appeal to this pig.
Agree with every word. I can add that people tend to believe in some kind of conspiracy theories. But in fact, the world is chaos, a chaos of opinions and conceit. As we can see, history repeats itself and a direct parallel with the year 38 can be easily drawn. Only then they were simply afraid, and now they are less afraid, but they love money more than the concept of sacrifices for the sake of the future.
Aug 29, 2023·edited Aug 29, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Hello Tom, thank you for your actualisation. I am missing info what is happening on the left bank of Dněpr river at the moment. Could you please add some info about situation there? And what is your view on situation in general, would you bet for Ukrainian breakthrough in couple next weeks? Thank you
Thanks Tom! Could you explain why the ZSU keep insisting on putting small detachments (battalions?) of so many brigades (10?) on the Robotyne-Tokmak axis? It doesn't take a military genius to know that it's considerably easier to coordinate 2-3 brigade staff instead of 10.
Kalino Air Base/Kursk International Photos of the runway were published yesterday and two big explosion marks were clearly visible.
Another thing. I always follow a fresh analysis of Marcus Reisner on the Österreichs Bundesheer channel. As for me, his point of view is very sensible. What can you say about this?
Many thanks Tom, for your update (a very valuable, indeed, with the US vision of the drama)
About EU politicians... better let them out. They’re a corrupt bunch and you only may waste your time with them. I’m in the mood that next weeks may introduce deep impact news. Hope that, anyway.
Such an insult sometimes makes you want to cry. Ukrainians fight like true heroes. They really are - heroes. Where in the world is there so much indifference, incompetence, selfishness? Where are their "values"? It seems that in the event of an attack on them, these "advisors" will be the first to run to lick Putin's heels. And they will say that it is profitable and reasonable.
I am writing this, and nearby, blow by blow - rockets are falling.
Sadly, there is incompetence everywhere, and it will be even more, because nowadays people let mobile phones think for them. On the other hand, we must admit that USA doesn't have to save us in this part of the world. It's good that they help us; hopefully they would continue to do it, and more effective. It's Europe I would expect more from.
I do not agree with you. Bill Clinton himself admitted that he pressured Ukraine to take away weapons and give them to Russia. They know how to press, but they don't know how to answer? It is wrong. And the security system in the world is moving.
Any country will put its own interests first. Sometimes it is not right, but it is what it is. We don't have to be naive. In theory, considering the Budapest Memorandum, they are all 4 responsible for Ukraine borders. Result: Putin is massacring innocent people in Ukraine, while the rest is trying to avoid WW3. I think everybody expected that Russia will become a democracy back in 1994. They were fooled.
Ukraine is being killed not theoretically, but practically. And our guarantors must respond - practically. So far, it all looks like a desire to remove responsibility from yourself. And it's a shame. But the security system is broken. What fool would believe them now? They destroyed everything themselves.
Biden Natsec team has been exceptionally incompetent considering Ukraine military aid is one of the few things that bring about bipartisanship. There's no reason why anything has been delayed or why we're questioning Ukrainians when we havent provided everything.
That is true. Without air force and fleet, Ukrainians are in fact doing an exceptional job. But Washington Post has always been negative. I remember last year they published a piece about how bad is the situation and how low is the morale in the Ukrainian army, they were close to fall. Not long after that, Harkiv was eliberated.
Couldn't agree more about Jake Sullivan and company. How does a failed lawyer get to be national security advisor? As for the anonymous sources in the Pentagon: I suspect they are all pro trump, pro putin clowns. Why do journalists regurgitate this stuff. Any of them heard of the Hurtzgen Forest?
European are simply worst, because they can`t take decision without USA. Scholz is a mouse, that will never do anything smart on his own initiative and Macron is just confused and do random things, that are not helpful. The rest are sadly even more irrelevant and left without leadership.
Thanks for the update, appreciated and informative as always.
I have two questions, if I may:
- Did you change meanwhile you opinion regarding the whole F16 story for Ukraine, meaning that you were not in full support for this move since the funding could be better spent otherwise?
- There is statement, often heard here and there, that Ukraine haven’t deployed its main established reserves yet. If so why? I assume that they are not of big use for the offensive in the South due to how hard it’s to move through the narrow lines of demined routs, it would simply oversaturate the territory with targets for the enemy? But maybe Ukraine could open a second offensive front somewhere in Luhansk to stretch the logistics for Russians even harder?
:D
Sorry, my poo-tin sycophant, it is ruzzia that invaded Ukraine, not US/NATO.
Take 30 rubles.
Then number them
Very funny - now try that with content next to those numbers
Where have you been when I was commenting these conflicts....?
Thanks a lot for your great reporting! We sit around doing almost nothing in Europe while the Ukrainians fight for their, and also our, freedom. In your opinion, what is the best way to financially support the Ukrainian army personal that have to do this terrible fight? You once mentioned the Come Back Alive foundation.
I'm 'mistrusting by nature' (see: everybody lies, until proven otherwise). but yes: Come Back Alive, Rebekah (https://twitter.com/bekamaciorowski), and Anna Filippova (https://twitter.com/AnnaFil_Ukraine) are coming to my mind.
There is also an crowdfunding initiative (already 23M€) in cooperation with Czech government and UA embassy in CZ, you can choose from different options to support (weapons, ammo, medical, demining...)
https://www.weaponstoukraine.com/ (or in czech with wider portfolio https://www.zbraneproukrajinu.cz/)
Tom, do you have any thoughts about United24?
Sorry, never heard of them.
"Come back alive" ("повернись живим") and "Sergij Prytula foundation" is two biggest foundation in Ukraine. Also is lot of local volunteer groups (like "port frankivsk" for example, who literally produce hand-made fpv-drones). And of course lot of people, who personal try find money for cars, mavics, night vision sys etc for them combat units. Illustration of this kind of "job" you can see on facebook profile ukrainian poet Sergij Zhadan. Thank you!
Where is that Prytula's satellite has gone? Nobody has seen it or results of its work. Millions were donated
It's hillarious, how you ignore(intentionally? idk) simple google search. Type "Prytula satellite" and you'll see a bunch of relevant articles on a topic of results and gains. Even more, a wiki page on "People's satellite" with dedicated "Reported results” section with a summery.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Satellite
What else do you need to stop being just a rus propaganda noise?
Google search does not prove anything. Have you seen any images sattelite made of russiest positions in ukrainian media? I'm not. For example illegal russiest Crimea bridge after any attack was always showed with US Maxar satellite help.
1. Because ICEYE is not an optical telescope. Imagery it provides is more like electromagnetic "echolocation" data. It has to be transformed and processed to give some intel.
2. Foundation bought one satellite, but got an access untill the end of war to the whole constellation of satellites that are already in orbit(answer to pre-edited "why not see rocket make brrr").
Example of ukrainian source.
https://defence-ua.com/photo/gur_pokazalo_jak_naspravdi_bachit_suputnik_iceye_ta_ogolosilo_kilkist_znajdenih_objektiv_voroga-246.html
Thanks for the link. However if minister of defence was involved here, the people who funded this project should expect a dirty deal. Not sure if it was realy required for ZSU, if NATO provides all required satellite intel during this war and if all the amount of money paid was reasonable price.
Minister of Defence, mentioned with big thanks to Prytula, is widely known to be very corrupted person with supplying so called "golden eggs", 4 times more expensive than in retail winter jackets for army, paying in advance 36 billions UAH for ammunition supply, which have never took place. Thus, he cannot be trusted.
https://u24.gov.ua/
United 24 : it goes directly to the bank account of the Ukrainian gvt
Hi Kurt, understand you. You don't want to fund any many middle-persons standing between your money and the Ukrainian army. Well, I came back today from 2 weeks Kyiv. I went directly to the persons that are busy with drones and grads. If interested I won't mind sharing contacts.
There are also several good initiatives providing old ambulanses, terrain vehicles and fire trucs here from Norway. I would assume that there are similar organisations elsewhere in Europe. There are many ways to support, but look locally where you can evaluate better yourself.
The best way to support UA army is to buy what they argently need (usually surveillance drones, night vision optics) and send directly to the front line without any middle persons.
Finally! How long am I suppossed to wait for my summaries
"except that the ZSU is doing certain things on its own, about which I’m not going to talk in the public" can you at least share if it has positive or negative impact on the battlefield?
Right now: no idea. We're going to see in the coming days.
well, it's at least a slightly better, than at first I got it - I interpreted this sentence that the UAF screwed up something mightily.
As did I.
US already achieved it's real objective in this war with the blowing up of the Nord Stream and the EU pivot from Russian gas to American LNG. From that moment onwards they will only do damage control and a quite a little bit of money.
This is utter BS.
That is probably what Putin hopes regarding the USA.
Grow up and find the facts not regurgitate bullshit !
Which part of my statement is untrue and never happen ? Nord Steam ? EU switch from Russian energy to US one and some other sources, but mostly US ? US based companies and individuals making handsome profits during the war ?
If these were the "real objectives" as you claim, support would have been stopped long ago.
Try to learn smth before making this type of BS. US gave Ukraine nearly no credits at all. Germans - yes, large credits aside of direct material aid. US - not even lease, just material aid without any obligations aside of "no resale, no use on Russian native territory".
Not really. Here is where the "damage control" part kicks in. If they had stopped, what would have been the message? We support you untill our coffers are full? Plus, there is still money to be made, right now and after the conflict will end.
You have missed to say that the USA provoked this war just to make Europe to switch from Russian energy to American LNG.
Hahaha… is this the way you live? Every single thing that happens in the world you feel it necessary to construct a conspiracy around it that explains it ‘your way’
Very, very sad case of delusion.
My comment t was sarcastic !
After one year and a half of war, this is what bothers you the most ?
Here we have them coming - ruzzian trolls...
Did you wrote all that by yourself or you had help ?
Troll it is.
So it's settled, you had help.
Trolls, maybe. But they still have to pay to comment, correct?
Tom, let me spare you the effort - having a PhD in nuclear and particle physics had a negligible effect on my understanding of the warfare. Your articles on the other hand keep being an eye opener.
A very optimistic and highly informative report! Really USA wants to rule and to use this war by balancing between the negotiations with Putler (it is impossible but the USA is not ready to accept the truth) and attempts to frighten him with the perspectives of the "growing difficulties" (none in fact) in Russia. I wonder how people with such mediocre mental capacities have reached the highest positions in the American administration. But maybe just because of it.
Being of the west, but not an American or Ukrainian, I can speak free of self interest.
I think that the Americans main wish is to live their lives peacefully, free to pursue life liberty happiness and the dollar. When Ukraine was attacked they could have paid lip service (see Obama in regards to mass civilian murders in Syria), and wait to meet Putin in NATO boundaries (like they did when Putin invaded Georgia).
Instead the current American administration (and also many private initiatives) rose up to the occasion and provided such a massive aid as was not seen in years !
Yes, they made many mistakes, but most of the great military experts were surprised by many things in this war (i.e. drones patrolling the air such that no unit is safe and large formations get instantly decimated, the importance of artillery, etc.).
And yes, they hesitated and are still hesitating over providing some types of important equipment.
And yes, some (many ? most ?) of them are overly full of themselves.
But, and there is a HUGE but here, they are standing massively by Ukraine, in word and in deed, and that, first and foremost, has to be in front of all those critics of the USA behavior in this war.
Personally, I think all Ukarainian should and probably do feel deep gratitude to that great nation which stands so staunchly by their side.
And yes, too, the american's support should be constantly evaluated and criticized, because that is the only way to improve. The united states must not be a holy cow (that cannot be criticized), that is the way to sure failure. They should be Ukraine's best friends and there should be open discussions and a lot of disagreements between them until this war is over and Putin's hordes are defeated and sent back to their original borders.
And finally, many thanks Tom for your great work !
Thank you for your comment. Be sure everybody in Ukraine is grateful to the USA. I am sure nobody even imagined that the war can be so cruel and the Russian hordes so savage. But as long as USA consider themselves the main champion for liberty and democracy (as it is constantly declared everywhere) this country is obliged to act according to its claims.
Well as you just hint when a field is overwhelmingly dominated by idiots, they tend to proceed a selection toward more idiocy.
It is the same here in France and I guess just everywhere.
To be successful the leader must not be above his followers but be on their level. Some Nazi propagandist advised to look for a pig inside a man and to appeal to this pig.
Agree with every word. I can add that people tend to believe in some kind of conspiracy theories. But in fact, the world is chaos, a chaos of opinions and conceit. As we can see, history repeats itself and a direct parallel with the year 38 can be easily drawn. Only then they were simply afraid, and now they are less afraid, but they love money more than the concept of sacrifices for the sake of the future.
Hello Tom, thank you for your actualisation. I am missing info what is happening on the left bank of Dněpr river at the moment. Could you please add some info about situation there? And what is your view on situation in general, would you bet for Ukrainian breakthrough in couple next weeks? Thank you
Thanks Tom! Could you explain why the ZSU keep insisting on putting small detachments (battalions?) of so many brigades (10?) on the Robotyne-Tokmak axis? It doesn't take a military genius to know that it's considerably easier to coordinate 2-3 brigade staff instead of 10.
....because nobody likes putting 'all eggs into the same basket' when fighting a nuclear power....
Tom. nice review as always.
Kalino Air Base/Kursk International Photos of the runway were published yesterday and two big explosion marks were clearly visible.
Another thing. I always follow a fresh analysis of Marcus Reisner on the Österreichs Bundesheer channel. As for me, his point of view is very sensible. What can you say about this?
Do you have a link to these photos?
https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1696072184186479029
Thanks
Yet there are no burn marks on these sat images in the post, nor any such mentioning in the discussion.
The notorius Markus Reisner. Then you might as well roll the dice. That's all you get with Reisner.
Many thanks Tom, for your update (a very valuable, indeed, with the US vision of the drama)
About EU politicians... better let them out. They’re a corrupt bunch and you only may waste your time with them. I’m in the mood that next weeks may introduce deep impact news. Hope that, anyway.
Such an insult sometimes makes you want to cry. Ukrainians fight like true heroes. They really are - heroes. Where in the world is there so much indifference, incompetence, selfishness? Where are their "values"? It seems that in the event of an attack on them, these "advisors" will be the first to run to lick Putin's heels. And they will say that it is profitable and reasonable.
I am writing this, and nearby, blow by blow - rockets are falling.
Sadly, there is incompetence everywhere, and it will be even more, because nowadays people let mobile phones think for them. On the other hand, we must admit that USA doesn't have to save us in this part of the world. It's good that they help us; hopefully they would continue to do it, and more effective. It's Europe I would expect more from.
I do not agree with you. Bill Clinton himself admitted that he pressured Ukraine to take away weapons and give them to Russia. They know how to press, but they don't know how to answer? It is wrong. And the security system in the world is moving.
<And the security system in the world is moving>
What do you mean?
Any country will put its own interests first. Sometimes it is not right, but it is what it is. We don't have to be naive. In theory, considering the Budapest Memorandum, they are all 4 responsible for Ukraine borders. Result: Putin is massacring innocent people in Ukraine, while the rest is trying to avoid WW3. I think everybody expected that Russia will become a democracy back in 1994. They were fooled.
Ukraine is being killed not theoretically, but practically. And our guarantors must respond - practically. So far, it all looks like a desire to remove responsibility from yourself. And it's a shame. But the security system is broken. What fool would believe them now? They destroyed everything themselves.
Biden Natsec team has been exceptionally incompetent considering Ukraine military aid is one of the few things that bring about bipartisanship. There's no reason why anything has been delayed or why we're questioning Ukrainians when we havent provided everything.
That is true. Without air force and fleet, Ukrainians are in fact doing an exceptional job. But Washington Post has always been negative. I remember last year they published a piece about how bad is the situation and how low is the morale in the Ukrainian army, they were close to fall. Not long after that, Harkiv was eliberated.
Couldn't agree more about Jake Sullivan and company. How does a failed lawyer get to be national security advisor? As for the anonymous sources in the Pentagon: I suspect they are all pro trump, pro putin clowns. Why do journalists regurgitate this stuff. Any of them heard of the Hurtzgen Forest?
Hurtgen Forest.
Same way Kamala Harris got made the "Ai Czar".
Pure and utter fk-witery.
European are simply worst, because they can`t take decision without USA. Scholz is a mouse, that will never do anything smart on his own initiative and Macron is just confused and do random things, that are not helpful. The rest are sadly even more irrelevant and left without leadership.
Thanks, charming I must say... UK led the way with support, I might remind you
Hello Tom,
Thanks for the update, appreciated and informative as always.
I have two questions, if I may:
- Did you change meanwhile you opinion regarding the whole F16 story for Ukraine, meaning that you were not in full support for this move since the funding could be better spent otherwise?
- There is statement, often heard here and there, that Ukraine haven’t deployed its main established reserves yet. If so why? I assume that they are not of big use for the offensive in the South due to how hard it’s to move through the narrow lines of demined routs, it would simply oversaturate the territory with targets for the enemy? But maybe Ukraine could open a second offensive front somewhere in Luhansk to stretch the logistics for Russians even harder?
Thanks in advance!
Guess, I'll have to run a 'Q&A session' in this regards (in that sense: thanks a lot for your questions, they're really inspirational!)