It is annoying that the Ukrainians aren't uploading more videos...i mean it's like they want to maintain 'operational security' 🤔 or something ridiculous like that
heavens forebid it might even be an attempt to 'win the war!'.
Very unfair, particularly toward those poor innocent Russian Dis-information campaigns 🤷🏼♂️🤦🏼♂️.
And imagine: instead of (finally?) collapsing, they even think they could defeat Russia. What a horror - especially for Washington, Berlin, London and few other places...
Nice report Tom. So, Kursk is still a "operative mess" for the Russian command that is still deploying wich unit could find and still have not set a cohesive force.
Why the FSB is in Charge of military operations? Have their generals trained to deploy military units, or only batallions of border guards?
And in Donetsk, theain objective maybe are to ocupy the full Oblast for this summer. Are any of the principal axis of advance in this sector weakened and the reserves sent to Kursk?
As explained yesterday: because this is a 'terrorist attack' on Russia. Something like 'environmental disaster'. No war...
Re. Donbas: AFAIK, none. Arguably, the withdrawal of elements of the 11th VDV Brigade and the 98th VDV Division from the Bakhmut area means that the Russians have given up on Chasiv Yar. However, they run out of steam there already 2-3 weeks ago. Now everything is focused on Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
Why trying to push there, when the Wildschweinjagd is coming forward so well somewhere else?
That's like when people 'predict' and/or 'demand' the ZSU to attack Rylsk from the west. Or to push all the way to Kursk. Why should it do so? Why waste troops in pointless pissing contests for urban areas, when they are excelling in smashing the VSRF in manoeuvring warfare?
This is not a contest for urban areas. If ZSU stops its advance, at some point the Russian will dig their trenches and defenses around them and from them will start slowly to pulverize and attack the ZSU positions in a way similar to the Northern Lugansk front. I just think that ZSU should try hard to disrupt as much as possible the Russian supplies line to the South. This is what will bring relief to the Donbas area (and I think a good chance to win the war), rather than Russia moving troops out of that battle theatre.
Rylsk is the last stop on a rail line. Not much value. A move towards Orel - and half of Russian supplies line are cut and the military industrial complex of Tula is within missile (expanded Neptune hopefully) range. Maybe just dreaming.
I think such expectations are about the feeling of necessity for a suitable defensive line somewhere at the outer edge of the gains. Right now that area between Sudzha and L'gov is suitable for the needs of the mobile Ukrainian units, but with time it is expected to be turned into a mine- and dugout-field, restraining their movements.
I kind of expected to happen that by now: at least partially. The inadequacy of the Russians is a great positive surprise, but even with that it's eventually a probable outcome.
And when it happens, a new playground will be needed, with the old one secured.
At least, it would be difficult to prevent it seen as a failure if the gains are not secured.
IMHO just one or two more such 'playground' events would be able to end the war in a year.
But that would require troops free to play, not bogged down in the previous playground somewhere.
Mobile troops go in, secure a defensible sector the enemy is compelled to spend resources rolling back, then hand it over to a smaller number of lighter forces that conduct a slow fighting retreat over months.
Nice thing about these ops is that two brigades can initiate the assault, with command committing more only if they have demonstrated success. If not, try again somewhere else in a couple weeks.
The western flank of the sector needs to be secured in a few weeks to avoid Moscow pinching Ukrainian forces from three sides. The drone/EW advantage won't last forever, and eventually gaps between forward units will be found and exploited. A bulge requires defending a long perimeter.
If a coherent line forms from northwest of Rylsk to Belitsa Ukraine can economize the front and defend in depth for months. Otherwise they'll have to simply withdraw when Moscow eventually pours fifty thousand conscripts into the sector.
Pretty simple algorithm - hit hardest at the edge of the sector you intend to secure, cut off enemy forces at the other side from reinforcements until they're forced to retreat through a narrowing gap. Then you can dig in on a shorter line and continue the swine hunt as the hordes walk into a kill zone.
The destruction of the enemy's military power while preserving your own should always be the primary objective. Territorial gain or loss should support the primary objective.
Terrain determines the rate at which this attrition can be inflicted, as does the length of the front your forces have to cover and their density. That's why most military campaigns revolve around territorial objectives.
Not because they themselves necessarily matter, but because they play a role in a broader scheme of operations. That's why Rylsk makes sense as a target - as did Sudzha - but Voronezh and Kursk don't.
Information about a convoy fire in Poland looks like fake news. I cant find anymention of it in the Polish media, general or military portals. No one would miss such news during the silly season. Does anyone else report it?
I think it must be a misunderstanding. It is impossible to hide something like this in Poland. Maybe it was a convoy heading FROM Poland, but already in Ukraine?
Nevzorov is in full support of Ukraine, and I never seen he was trolling Ukraine. But time to time he (or his wife who administer his tg channel} could be too fast on posting news, without careful check of them.
Same thinking - not a single mention in news (and they would love it) and not a single Polish military blogger mentioned it. Also, it's not Polish language in the video. The big fire truck looks like "ours" from what can be seen (but a multitude of them are also in Ukraine), but smaller (pickup) does not look like any of PL authority vehicles.
Russia still controls much larger percentage of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts than Donbas oblast. The best (or perhaps least bad?) place Ukraine can trade ground for time is in Donbas.
Maybe, its a gamble for both sides. But Ukraine has struggeled in Donbas for quite some time. Russia could probably achive all this no matter, at least now they are having to fight in Kursk as well.
The russian were stopped after Ocheretyne. They lured the Ukrainian Army în Kharkiv and started to advance again from Ocheretyne. The Ukrainian army moved to Kursk and the russians have now double speed on this direction.
Once the russian get Pokrovsk they can swing south and take Vuhledar, east for Toretsk and northvtowards Kramatorsk. That is an area with an abundance of roads and no fortifications.
They have more than enough. They have pushed a small penetration towards Ocheretyne into a large salient towards Pokrovsk while also fighting in 5 other places
This is a planed decision. Highly cynical but inteligent. The Russians need only to slow down the Ukrainians, stop them at some point and keep them busy în Kursk.
The Ukrainian units are no longer available as a reserve but take selfies. And Donbas units are starved of munitions and replacements.
Harkiv attack served the same purpose: divert Ukrainian forces from Donbas
IF they get the Pokrovsk (ever). It is two times larger then Adviivka and well defended. They do not have resources for that without mobilization, this means not earlier then spring next year, IF mobilization is declared now. And many other IFs. Firstly IF they retake sente, which means initiative. And IF UA does not play tenuki, means elsewhere by that time. So happy daydreaming.
The russians will get to Pokrovsk în 1 or maximum 2 months. Pokrovks doesn't have the fortifications of Avdeevka/ Marinka nor the garrison of Bakhmut.
The Ukrainian brigades în Donbass are incapable of launching counteratacks into the flanks of the russian salient.
Pokrovks can be held only if 2 full manned brigades are sent as garrison. So not în Kursk or Harkiv. Otherwise Povrovsk will fall after 2-3 month like în January 2025. And then there will be salients towards Vuhledar, Kramatorsk Toretsk. And these will move much much faster.
Where is this relatively small Ukrainian force meant to go to achieve 'visible progress'? Capture Kursk? Moscow? Try to think like the Ukrainians. As long as they can stay mobile they can use their equipment in the way it was designed to fight war and, as a result, grind down the Russian far more effectively. When they're done, there's a good chance they will withdraw to the prepared positions they're constructing and, in effect, transfer a bit of the Donbas front to Russian soil.
Well, in future there should only be Western support in case all Ukrainian soldiers are wearing GoPro cameras stripped to their helmets streaming live including geolocation. There must be transparency!
And they'll have to account for every shot*. Western taxpayers don't pay for their taxes to be fired into the ground.
* This was an actual thing in the Congo Free State. Colonial militia had to prove they aren't wasting their bullets by presenting the hands of the enemies they had killed, resulting in lots of mutilated natives.
Old problem of motivation and verification. The old Romans had a similar problem right after Canne. Then they raise two slave legion to fight Hannibal. The slaves were promised freedom (probably citizenship) after service. In some skirmish there the consul added his own motivation: bring me the head of an Enemy and I will free you now. However he had to change the promise because so many soldiers came running with a head that the formatkonverterer were threathened. So he freed all then and there and succeded in the battle. Generals, as anybody else offering performance bonuses should think carefully about how they will work. Story from Livys «War with Hannibal».
Mate, sorry, the internet is full of it. If nothing else, check the websites of the Ukrainska Pravda and/or Kyiv Independent (both are available in English, too).
Lol, none of these shaheds reached the target. That's an interesting joke. It didn't reach its target so much that we didn't have oil and diesel containers burning for 12+ hrs yesterday here, yes 😑. Didn't hear even a single shot fired at that shashed
Psh, try the American version of "nothing exists unless it's on the news channel I like" which pairs perfectly with a business model designed to keep audiences in a state of suspended reality. Our masters all work out their own flavor of control, most banal.
Wait a moment: you seriously expect NATO to have a plan - and thus strategy - for how is it supporting Ukraine, for example through bolstering its air defences?
Mate, I most sincerely hope you are young and that's just the youthful enthusiasm and naivety.
Because, NATO has no serious intention to do so on its own. And, Ukrainian government is excelling at failing to do so on its own (and that so much so, it can't but continue screwing up the Artyom-Lurch complex so much, even 2,5 years into the war, they can still not fund production of their own AAMs and SAMs.).
With other words: that with improving Ukrainian air defences is just another example for systemic incompetence dominating our political and public life. And considering Ukraine is so eager to join NATO and EU: why should its authorities do anything better but screw up as hard as those of NATO and EU?
They do have plans, though their execution is imperfect. ‘Five strategic systems’ announced last month but still not there. I was hoping that people in defence/military world might have some sense of the gap between planning and action. We have not altogether failed in the past. I’m 80. No fool like an old fool, some say
Head over to Oryx and take a look at the current state of GBAD donations. I'm quite impressed by the numbers of IRIS-T and NASAMS batteries and launchers delivered and promised. The pace has picked up (that should never have been necessary). The thing to remember is that these are bespoke, hand-built systems with tiny production lines. It can take years to build just one battery. If Ukraine's backers had responded quickly in early 2022, not with SAMs, but by expanding production first, things would be much better. But back then, not many people thought Ukraine could last beyond the summer so they didn't. All those unused Israeli Patriots batteries are a sore point though. They don't need them, not whilst they have the US Navy protecting them.
I think that our help for Ukraine was improvised at the beginning and has never got itself entirely steady. But there’s got to be something we can do amid these bad events
Is it true that Putin has sacked Bortnikov and replaced him with Putin's personal bodyguard? A strong odour of panic emanating from the Kremlin? How will the Army Command react to Gerasimov's ouster and critically, how will the Army react to FSB C2?
On 7 August, Putin appointed Alexander Bortnikov, the director of the FSB, to take over the ‘counter-terrorism’ operation in Kursk. He was replaced six days later by Aleksey Dyumin, a former security guard for Putin who was later governor of Tula and moved to the Ministry of Defense after the Wagner rebellion. He is loyal to Putin but does not have a military background.
...I've reported Duymin's appointment some 3-4 times, too.
Isn't Diumin a graduate of the Voronezh Higher Military Engineering School of Radio Electronics ? And also a graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff ? I think he was also GRU. OK, intelligence officers are not very capable when it comes to operations and art but still, I wouldn't say he has no military background.
GRU is not the same as field intelligence. He's a spook and has never commanded in the field. Do not expect this to go well for him. But he is a very good politician, and he's probably already drawn up a list of suckers he can transfer the blame to when he fails.
Check out Mark Galeotti's 'In Moscow's Shadows' podcast. He's profiled Dyumin at least a couple of times. Once a few years before the invasion, and again, last month. Good timing from Prof. G.
That was not my question. I already know what is the purpose of military intelligence and that of reconnaissance formations, I need no help with this. Thank you for the book recommendation.
No worries, you have not offended anyone. There is a difference between command experience and military background. Or maybe I am mistaken, English is not my first language.
I never said he said he has any command experience. I just said that he does have a military background, he is/was an military officer, a graduate of 2 levels of academies.
How will they react? Not very well, but then they don't want to 'fall' out of windows either. This is why authoritarians are terrible at fighting wars. They lose faith in their militaries because they cannot achieve the Great Leader's unrealistic goals. He turns to his cronies who one-by-one fail too and so the Great Leader's paranoia grows until he's in a 'Downfall' scenario. Sure, there are a few exceptions, but Putin is most definitely not one of them.
Maybe "no strategy at all" is a real strategy of NATO. It is in fact "following the tail of the events" as a Russian proverb says. Such modus operandi is a habit of incompetent and timid persons who are always afraid of imaginary mistakes.
Thanks Tom as always 👍
It is annoying that the Ukrainians aren't uploading more videos...i mean it's like they want to maintain 'operational security' 🤔 or something ridiculous like that
heavens forebid it might even be an attempt to 'win the war!'.
Very unfair, particularly toward those poor innocent Russian Dis-information campaigns 🤷🏼♂️🤦🏼♂️.
Tragic...
*End sarcasm*
Yeah! Horrible!
And imagine: instead of (finally?) collapsing, they even think they could defeat Russia. What a horror - especially for Washington, Berlin, London and few other places...
Most unsporting! 🧐
Nice report Tom. So, Kursk is still a "operative mess" for the Russian command that is still deploying wich unit could find and still have not set a cohesive force.
Why the FSB is in Charge of military operations? Have their generals trained to deploy military units, or only batallions of border guards?
And in Donetsk, theain objective maybe are to ocupy the full Oblast for this summer. Are any of the principal axis of advance in this sector weakened and the reserves sent to Kursk?
As explained yesterday: because this is a 'terrorist attack' on Russia. Something like 'environmental disaster'. No war...
Re. Donbas: AFAIK, none. Arguably, the withdrawal of elements of the 11th VDV Brigade and the 98th VDV Division from the Bakhmut area means that the Russians have given up on Chasiv Yar. However, they run out of steam there already 2-3 weeks ago. Now everything is focused on Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
FSB is in charge of the entire Russia, thus they are in charge of its defense as well. No other organization may ever be trusted.
Which must really make them popular among the non trusted units…. (Look, I think I did sarcasm!)
Interesting question.
Actually during Soviet times the Border
troops were under direct command of KGB (still the same in Russia).
Border troops were treated with higher amounts of propaganda and considered
more loyal to regime. You have to be loyal, in order not to question why so much people want to leave soviet heaven.
They even had red colored Military ID, which is so cool and prestige.
Border troop also considered as an excellent start to join KGB.
So taking into account amount of border troops involved in Kursk, FSB was expected to take the lead? Who knows?
Thanks Tom!
>>>
Actually, the ZSU is well-entrenched in Belitsa and Giri, and appears not interested in pushing further east.
>>>>
Bad news. I wish they had plans to take Voronezh.
Why trying to push there, when the Wildschweinjagd is coming forward so well somewhere else?
That's like when people 'predict' and/or 'demand' the ZSU to attack Rylsk from the west. Or to push all the way to Kursk. Why should it do so? Why waste troops in pointless pissing contests for urban areas, when they are excelling in smashing the VSRF in manoeuvring warfare?
This is not a contest for urban areas. If ZSU stops its advance, at some point the Russian will dig their trenches and defenses around them and from them will start slowly to pulverize and attack the ZSU positions in a way similar to the Northern Lugansk front. I just think that ZSU should try hard to disrupt as much as possible the Russian supplies line to the South. This is what will bring relief to the Donbas area (and I think a good chance to win the war), rather than Russia moving troops out of that battle theatre.
Rylsk is the last stop on a rail line. Not much value. A move towards Orel - and half of Russian supplies line are cut and the military industrial complex of Tula is within missile (expanded Neptune hopefully) range. Maybe just dreaming.
I think such expectations are about the feeling of necessity for a suitable defensive line somewhere at the outer edge of the gains. Right now that area between Sudzha and L'gov is suitable for the needs of the mobile Ukrainian units, but with time it is expected to be turned into a mine- and dugout-field, restraining their movements.
I kind of expected to happen that by now: at least partially. The inadequacy of the Russians is a great positive surprise, but even with that it's eventually a probable outcome.
And when it happens, a new playground will be needed, with the old one secured.
At least, it would be difficult to prevent it seen as a failure if the gains are not secured.
IMHO just one or two more such 'playground' events would be able to end the war in a year.
But that would require troops free to play, not bogged down in the previous playground somewhere.
That's what I think.
Mobile troops go in, secure a defensible sector the enemy is compelled to spend resources rolling back, then hand it over to a smaller number of lighter forces that conduct a slow fighting retreat over months.
Nice thing about these ops is that two brigades can initiate the assault, with command committing more only if they have demonstrated success. If not, try again somewhere else in a couple weeks.
The western flank of the sector needs to be secured in a few weeks to avoid Moscow pinching Ukrainian forces from three sides. The drone/EW advantage won't last forever, and eventually gaps between forward units will be found and exploited. A bulge requires defending a long perimeter.
If a coherent line forms from northwest of Rylsk to Belitsa Ukraine can economize the front and defend in depth for months. Otherwise they'll have to simply withdraw when Moscow eventually pours fifty thousand conscripts into the sector.
Pretty simple algorithm - hit hardest at the edge of the sector you intend to secure, cut off enemy forces at the other side from reinforcements until they're forced to retreat through a narrowing gap. Then you can dig in on a shorter line and continue the swine hunt as the hordes walk into a kill zone.
The destruction of the enemy's military power while preserving your own should always be the primary objective. Territorial gain or loss should support the primary objective.
Terrain determines the rate at which this attrition can be inflicted, as does the length of the front your forces have to cover and their density. That's why most military campaigns revolve around territorial objectives.
Not because they themselves necessarily matter, but because they play a role in a broader scheme of operations. That's why Rylsk makes sense as a target - as did Sudzha - but Voronezh and Kursk don't.
Information about a convoy fire in Poland looks like fake news. I cant find anymention of it in the Polish media, general or military portals. No one would miss such news during the silly season. Does anyone else report it?
I think it must be a misunderstanding. It is impossible to hide something like this in Poland. Maybe it was a convoy heading FROM Poland, but already in Ukraine?
I hope you're right. Contacts say something else - and the link is just 'as support for what the contacts say'.
Nevzorov is a well-known troll, thus I would not have posted a link to his news
My rules are:
a) 'every lie contains 50% of truth'.
b) everybody lies - until proven otherwise.
c) in the case of doubt, check a and b.
Nevzorov is in full support of Ukraine, and I never seen he was trolling Ukraine. But time to time he (or his wife who administer his tg channel} could be too fast on posting news, without careful check of them.
Same thinking - not a single mention in news (and they would love it) and not a single Polish military blogger mentioned it. Also, it's not Polish language in the video. The big fire truck looks like "ours" from what can be seen (but a multitude of them are also in Ukraine), but smaller (pickup) does not look like any of PL authority vehicles.
Thank Tom for the update!
These pesky Ukrainians, don’t feed the media with is due amount of videos… Tschss, tschss!
Unfair and disgusting, all of them... ;-)
Thanks Tom,
Nice to hear that its living up to my expectations.
I knew the Russians would fail in a war of manoeuvre, even before I knew the FSB were running the (clown) show.
I hope Ukraine is building new prison camps.
Russians would happily bomb those camps (yes, with POWs inside too - _especially_ with POWs inside...)
Ukraine robs Peter în Donbas to pay Paul în Kursk.
Russia still controls much larger percentage of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts than Donbas oblast. The best (or perhaps least bad?) place Ukraine can trade ground for time is in Donbas.
Maybe, its a gamble for both sides. But Ukraine has struggeled in Donbas for quite some time. Russia could probably achive all this no matter, at least now they are having to fight in Kursk as well.
The russian were stopped after Ocheretyne. They lured the Ukrainian Army în Kharkiv and started to advance again from Ocheretyne. The Ukrainian army moved to Kursk and the russians have now double speed on this direction.
Once the russian get Pokrovsk they can swing south and take Vuhledar, east for Toretsk and northvtowards Kramatorsk. That is an area with an abundance of roads and no fortifications.
They don't have enough men for that.
They have more than enough. They have pushed a small penetration towards Ocheretyne into a large salient towards Pokrovsk while also fighting in 5 other places
>> They have more than enough
- This is why they don't even try to stop ZSU under Kursk
This is a planed decision. Highly cynical but inteligent. The Russians need only to slow down the Ukrainians, stop them at some point and keep them busy în Kursk.
The Ukrainian units are no longer available as a reserve but take selfies. And Donbas units are starved of munitions and replacements.
Harkiv attack served the same purpose: divert Ukrainian forces from Donbas
IF they get the Pokrovsk (ever). It is two times larger then Adviivka and well defended. They do not have resources for that without mobilization, this means not earlier then spring next year, IF mobilization is declared now. And many other IFs. Firstly IF they retake sente, which means initiative. And IF UA does not play tenuki, means elsewhere by that time. So happy daydreaming.
The russians will get to Pokrovsk în 1 or maximum 2 months. Pokrovks doesn't have the fortifications of Avdeevka/ Marinka nor the garrison of Bakhmut.
The Ukrainian brigades în Donbass are incapable of launching counteratacks into the flanks of the russian salient.
Pokrovks can be held only if 2 full manned brigades are sent as garrison. So not în Kursk or Harkiv. Otherwise Povrovsk will fall after 2-3 month like în January 2025. And then there will be salients towards Vuhledar, Kramatorsk Toretsk. And these will move much much faster.
I am accepting your bet.
Earth to Kremlin: Pull back from Pokrovsk soon or you will lose your army.
Thanks for the update
It's more clear now that why the lack of information...
But the lack of visible progress is still frustrating
Once again: the aim of this operation is not 'conquer terrain', but 'kuddle Russians'.
Correspondingly, it simply doesn't matter where: important is that the Russians are out in the open, and kuddled in big numbers.
I understand that but not having visible changes is still frustrating.
It's just a bystander thing.
Where is this relatively small Ukrainian force meant to go to achieve 'visible progress'? Capture Kursk? Moscow? Try to think like the Ukrainians. As long as they can stay mobile they can use their equipment in the way it was designed to fight war and, as a result, grind down the Russian far more effectively. When they're done, there's a good chance they will withdraw to the prepared positions they're constructing and, in effect, transfer a bit of the Donbas front to Russian soil.
Well, in future there should only be Western support in case all Ukrainian soldiers are wearing GoPro cameras stripped to their helmets streaming live including geolocation. There must be transparency!
And they'll have to account for every shot*. Western taxpayers don't pay for their taxes to be fired into the ground.
* This was an actual thing in the Congo Free State. Colonial militia had to prove they aren't wasting their bullets by presenting the hands of the enemies they had killed, resulting in lots of mutilated natives.
Why am I not surprised...
Working for to long in business, wehre everything is so market driven that bad actors can't survive or how was that fairy tale told 🤔
Old problem of motivation and verification. The old Romans had a similar problem right after Canne. Then they raise two slave legion to fight Hannibal. The slaves were promised freedom (probably citizenship) after service. In some skirmish there the consul added his own motivation: bring me the head of an Enemy and I will free you now. However he had to change the promise because so many soldiers came running with a head that the formatkonverterer were threathened. So he freed all then and there and succeded in the battle. Generals, as anybody else offering performance bonuses should think carefully about how they will work. Story from Livys «War with Hannibal».
Thank you Tom, could you please share the source on Syrskyi speech? Cheers
Mate, sorry, the internet is full of it. If nothing else, check the websites of the Ukrainska Pravda and/or Kyiv Independent (both are available in English, too).
Thank you, found a good one in Pravda, much obliged :)
Lol, none of these shaheds reached the target. That's an interesting joke. It didn't reach its target so much that we didn't have oil and diesel containers burning for 12+ hrs yesterday here, yes 😑. Didn't hear even a single shot fired at that shashed
There's nothing like the Soviet school of Maskirovka.
But isnt it difficult to find, nested in among similar looking buildings?
Psh, try the American version of "nothing exists unless it's on the news channel I like" which pairs perfectly with a business model designed to keep audiences in a state of suspended reality. Our masters all work out their own flavor of control, most banal.
As a Polish can't find any reliable proof of the explosions of ammunition.
I've also never seen such a pickup truck in Poland working together with firemen, instead it looks more like one of used by Israeli firemen https://www.galilole.org.il/2023/07/05/%D7%A7%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%AA-%D7%A9%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A0%D7%94-%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%A4%D7%94-%D7%91%D7%A9%D7%98%D7%97-%D7%A4%D7%AA%D7%95%D7%97-%D7%91%D7%A9%D7%A4%D7%A8%D7%99%D7%A0%D7%A6%D7%A7/
I took a screenshot, the image is not very clear but you are absolutely right. The writing on the fire truck is in Hebrew.
The single yellow line on the fire truck door is typical Israeli.
Have we any sense of when air defences for Ukraine will be improved?
Wait a moment: you seriously expect NATO to have a plan - and thus strategy - for how is it supporting Ukraine, for example through bolstering its air defences?
Mate, I most sincerely hope you are young and that's just the youthful enthusiasm and naivety.
Because, NATO has no serious intention to do so on its own. And, Ukrainian government is excelling at failing to do so on its own (and that so much so, it can't but continue screwing up the Artyom-Lurch complex so much, even 2,5 years into the war, they can still not fund production of their own AAMs and SAMs.).
With other words: that with improving Ukrainian air defences is just another example for systemic incompetence dominating our political and public life. And considering Ukraine is so eager to join NATO and EU: why should its authorities do anything better but screw up as hard as those of NATO and EU?
They do have plans, though their execution is imperfect. ‘Five strategic systems’ announced last month but still not there. I was hoping that people in defence/military world might have some sense of the gap between planning and action. We have not altogether failed in the past. I’m 80. No fool like an old fool, some say
Not that old, Sir, but... sigh... back in the 1980s, there would've been a plan in force since 25 February (2022).
....and it would've been refined dozens of times ever since.
Head over to Oryx and take a look at the current state of GBAD donations. I'm quite impressed by the numbers of IRIS-T and NASAMS batteries and launchers delivered and promised. The pace has picked up (that should never have been necessary). The thing to remember is that these are bespoke, hand-built systems with tiny production lines. It can take years to build just one battery. If Ukraine's backers had responded quickly in early 2022, not with SAMs, but by expanding production first, things would be much better. But back then, not many people thought Ukraine could last beyond the summer so they didn't. All those unused Israeli Patriots batteries are a sore point though. They don't need them, not whilst they have the US Navy protecting them.
I think that our help for Ukraine was improvised at the beginning and has never got itself entirely steady. But there’s got to be something we can do amid these bad events
Is it true that Putin has sacked Bortnikov and replaced him with Putin's personal bodyguard? A strong odour of panic emanating from the Kremlin? How will the Army Command react to Gerasimov's ouster and critically, how will the Army react to FSB C2?
As reported by Don, this Monday (https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dons-weekly-19-august-2024-part-1):
On 7 August, Putin appointed Alexander Bortnikov, the director of the FSB, to take over the ‘counter-terrorism’ operation in Kursk. He was replaced six days later by Aleksey Dyumin, a former security guard for Putin who was later governor of Tula and moved to the Ministry of Defense after the Wagner rebellion. He is loyal to Putin but does not have a military background.
...I've reported Duymin's appointment some 3-4 times, too.
Isn't Diumin a graduate of the Voronezh Higher Military Engineering School of Radio Electronics ? And also a graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff ? I think he was also GRU. OK, intelligence officers are not very capable when it comes to operations and art but still, I wouldn't say he has no military background.
GRU is not the same as field intelligence. He's a spook and has never commanded in the field. Do not expect this to go well for him. But he is a very good politician, and he's probably already drawn up a list of suckers he can transfer the blame to when he fails.
Check out Mark Galeotti's 'In Moscow's Shadows' podcast. He's profiled Dyumin at least a couple of times. Once a few years before the invasion, and again, last month. Good timing from Prof. G.
That was not my question. I already know what is the purpose of military intelligence and that of reconnaissance formations, I need no help with this. Thank you for the book recommendation.
Didn't mean to offend you. Apologies. Your post read like you didn't know he has no command experience of conventional warfare.
No worries, you have not offended anyone. There is a difference between command experience and military background. Or maybe I am mistaken, English is not my first language.
Yes, he is, and he's commanded the take-over of the Crimea. And he's Pudding's favourite, too.
....but, nope; he's got no experience in commanding combat operations at all (and the take-over of the Crimea was nothing of that: rather a coup).
I never said he said he has any command experience. I just said that he does have a military background, he is/was an military officer, a graduate of 2 levels of academies.
Is no problem. Just trying to help Jim.
How will they react? Not very well, but then they don't want to 'fall' out of windows either. This is why authoritarians are terrible at fighting wars. They lose faith in their militaries because they cannot achieve the Great Leader's unrealistic goals. He turns to his cronies who one-by-one fail too and so the Great Leader's paranoia grows until he's in a 'Downfall' scenario. Sure, there are a few exceptions, but Putin is most definitely not one of them.
BTW, there's a Downfall rant featuring Putin reacting to the Kursk counter offensive.
Yeah, it's excellent.
"Ukraine has caught us with our pants down while playing Tetris" is my favourite line. Although 'Don't cry, the bots say we're winning" comes close.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ufrs3wZ6dg
20 August. The Russians deployed 25 Shahed attack-UAVs, 1 Iskander, and 25 Kh-59s to attack Kyiv.
==Not 25 Kh-59s, it's 2
Maybe "no strategy at all" is a real strategy of NATO. It is in fact "following the tail of the events" as a Russian proverb says. Such modus operandi is a habit of incompetent and timid persons who are always afraid of imaginary mistakes.
Right on target.