Thank you for allowing us to be helpful, there is such a feeling of helplessness sometimes. It's better than donating to the red cross, I'm not sure that everything is used wisely.
The Red Cross is one of the helpless cowardly impotent organizations unable to function during real war. Moreover in reality it helped russia to conceal killing and torturing the prisoners.
It takes literally seconds online to find out that the ICRC HAD been trying to gain access, but was blocked by Russia initially. If you don't want to sound deluded, do a little fact-checking first.
It was trying to gain access if Russia would give guarantees. So no risks and a lot of talk to save face. Russia has its own office of the Red Cross as well as Belarus which participated in kidnapping Ukrainian children.
Russian Red Cross participated in humiliation of Ukrainian prisoners of war under torture (multiple accounts). They are political and connected to the Russian government. International Red Cross does not act on this and only tries to deflect attention. "No access to prisoners = no problem" seems to be their motto as well.
Again, posting a comment is not proof of anything. Show us your evidence and I will accept that you are not deluded. Which is an applicable word, because the ICRC has been non-political for over a century or else no would allow them access to POWs. Russia broke the Geneva Convention by doing so. Those are established facts. Show us the facts that contradict that. You say multiple accounts. Show us those. And they had better be verified by independent investigators or I will start using 'credulous' as well as 'deluded'.
I think the Russian are experimenting new concepts in this war ans some of them are being taken to the factories as soon as they think that is "enough good", like the Cage over the tanks that now are built in from the factory.
The pronged mech assaults that we saw (looks more like parades really) in 2022 that were decimated by AT heavy equiped infantry and the proliferation of drones maybe are made them think about the futileness of a mechanized penetration like the Soviet doctrine called upon. Because Soviet doctrine dictates that when You get the breakthrough, You must pressure ir when all who can be put in enemy rear, T-90, T-55, even T-34 if toy are using them.
Maybe the new "1000 cuts" strategy, needs a new concepto they have not refined too.
The Russians are shown lots of incompetence on their own doctrine at the start of this war, but this is a new army, like we can't compare the soviet Army from 1941 to the victorious red army of 1944.
More striking to me is to observe than Nato armies are still trading "old equipment to Ukraine as they are looking their "ombligo" as we said here in Argentina, and still are not producing un war footing new equipment or refurbishing the thousands of tanks they stored in the 90s for be ready to use.
Regarding the 2022 operations, as you mention, they were more like a parade. I would call them a show of force, aiming to cow Ukraine into submission without firing a single shot - they were definitely not wartime assaults, so the Russians can't really draw consequences from them. If they could amass a few thousand tanks and support vehicles for the task, they could probably still make a strategic breakthrough, but they apparently don't have the numbers, capacity and training for that.
What 2022 did show is that they also have serious issues keeping their spearheads supplied. The Soviet army would have been probably able to do it, but I don't recall even them doing it in an actual war with native equipment (when they did it in WWII, they used hundreds of thousands of US-made vehicles - they wouldn't have had enough trucks themselves, not even back then).
Parade or not, they did manage to take a very big chunk of territory in a short span of time and the land bridge to Crimea was quickly established. We'll probably never know how close they came to overthrowing the government in Kiev.
It is a different, much more capable army today. So is Ukraine's. The difference is, Ukraine is at the mercy of NATO governments and Russia is not.
Even so , I doubt the Russian army is capable of big arrow offensives yet. Sure, they could attempt to emulate the Red Army's operations but the Soviets paid very dearly for those successes.
From Russian perspective it makes much more sense to slowly attrit the Ukrainian army, society and allied support. It took a very long time for the US to approve the most recent aid package for Ukraine. Well, in 10 months time the whole process starts again... more money, more weapons, more men, more everything.
Well Sergei, Kiev is how millions of Ukrainians refer to Ukrainian capital in their native language. A language shared by the Ukrainian President as well the Ukrainian chief of armed forces. Ukraine should embrace its cultural and linguistic diversity.
This is how it is done in more civilized countries.
Erm....The assaults of the 35th CAA on positions of the 72nd Mech in the Moshchun area, in March 2022, were anything else than a 'parade'.
Almost an entire battalion of the brigade was KIA or WIA. Just the media missed them at the time, and the ZSU was too scared about a possible breakthrough but to report about that. Had the 72nd not held out there, the Russians would have reached Kyiv not only with 'few Spetsnaz and the VDV', but with an entire division of troops, and 'Boucha' would've been 'peanuts' in comparison.
Thanks for the update. I really wasn't aware of Moshchun being of such a scale (the news were more about the flooding of the Irpin area thwarting the Russian advance).
Voznesensk actually received coverage back then, though it was also more like "the Russians were already overextended and withdrew after unexpectedly coming under artillery fire".
There are few articles in the Ukrainian press, and two in the specialised US online media (like Small Wars Journal). Not particularly precise, but offering a good overview.
Voznesensk was covered by The Atlantic, Moshun was covered in EXTREME detail by I think WaPo as part of an extremely long article about the Battle of Kyiv
Moshchun was the point were the Irpin was crossed successfully, but the Russians got stopped there immediately. It is the only place were Russian armored vehicles were east of the Irpin in direction of Kyiv.
That's why they tried encircling Kyiv by going South and got stopped there too. Main reason was Ukrainian resistance and no logistics in place...
You are wrong. Ukrainian military observer Mashovets is regularly publishing reports in Tverezo.info about the exact locations of the Russian troops. You can read them using Google translation.
Thanks a lot again for keeping us connected to this crazines ... is possible to provide links to your updats of thwse 2 battles not sure im in the mood to check all your fb history
Had not heard about Robotyne. Thanks for that sad nugget. 2024 is shaping up to look like 2022 so far, not much widescale good news. Thanks for the update.
Thank you for your post on the 72nd Mech and their dire need right now. I'm the owner of TopCargo200.com and am in frequent contact with the boys in that unit. They've been in scary situations throughout this war, and have been in constant need of outside support, but I've never heard them more desperate for help than they are right now. They've been weathering daily airstrikes for weeks on end, causing a constant stream of wounded. But a couple days ago one of their positions took a direct hit from a FAB-500 and was obliterated. The men there were killed immediately, many more were wounded, and all their supplies there were destroyed.
The situation at the moment is extremely dire with regard to medical supplies. If anyone at all can help out, it would be an amazing act of caring for these boys that have done so much to save Ukraine:
It's heartbreaking to listen to the fear in the medics' voices when they talk about not being able to save their brothers because they don't have things as simple as sterile gauze or chest seals. On their behalf, I'd like to thank you again for the help spreading awareness. It truly does save lives.
It was, indeed a cyberattack. A DDOS was used to disguise a much more hands-on attack that nearly deleted the entire site. We have recovered now and are back up and running! You can find details about it here:
You have probably been asked this before but is drone striking Russian airbases the only way to decrease glide bomb attacks? also if thats the only way why arent ukraine focusing on that? maybe the targeting of oil is more important for the higher ups?
also funny that you mentioned you book since i just started reading it yeasterday
Well, alternatively, one could lob ATACMS at them - provided Biden/Blinken/Sullivan would permit delivery of longest-ranged variants... which is never going to happen.
Unless Ukrainians develop their counterpart... all there is are drones.
So, two years since the Russians have captured half of what eventually became the Azov Brigade (the 3rd Assault is merely 'affiliated' with the Azov movement, but not the same unit)... and?
The Russian super-turbo PRBS-machinery can't show even one photo of 'Azov Nazis'?
Don't you find that strange, or could it be you simply can't care less to check before believing something?
Guys, no need to be upset, I only said that it is nice for Tom to ask money on behalf of Andriy Biletsky.
But just to sure that there are no propaganda here, I'm right in saying that Ukraine Army's 3rd Assault Brigade is a borne from the combination of the SSO Azov-Kyiv with the 98th Territorial Defense Battalion Azov-Dnipro (including its 3rd Company formed from the members of Centuria) and that its commander is Andriy Biletsky, the founder of the original Azov, that with the National Guard, right?
Meaning what, that a volunteer unit founded and led by an ethno-nationalist supremacist according to which Ukrainian nation’s mission was to "lead the white races of the world in a final crusade … against Semite-led Untermenschen" is a very effective tool of war? Yes, I think you may be right
Hello Tom. At least it looks like that 20 km deep break through isn't a scenario now( I hope). Anu information about ZSU Atacams strikes in Crimea? Looks like last burnt 2 c 300 launchers
Sorry, but that might get very complex... I've got no copies left at home, and getting signed copies from the UK - that would have to wait until I get there to sign any, probably in November this year.
Operational reserves can be consumed but also reconstituted. There are multiple ways to do it and the easiest way is by nominating other units for this role.
'Yes, but'... the Operational Manoeuvre Group - the sort of obsession of Soviet/Russian military strategists... was never meant to consist of 'C-class' (or even lower) type of units, driving obsolete T-80 with non-operational turrets, and BMP-1.... at least not in the Year 2024.
Tom: stupid question.....but [according to your "GOSPEL" map (o: ] why is the RuSSian 30th MRB NOT attacking the Ukrainian 115th Mech in the ASS. Yes I understand the the "GOSPEL MAP" may not be completely accurate....however, it sure looks like the 30th MRB is behind the 115th Mech.
Thank you for allowing us to be helpful, there is such a feeling of helplessness sometimes. It's better than donating to the red cross, I'm not sure that everything is used wisely.
The Red Cross is one of the helpless cowardly impotent organizations unable to function during real war. Moreover in reality it helped russia to conceal killing and torturing the prisoners.
Care to post your evidence? This sounds deluded.
No evidence of Red Cross visiting or helping prisoners is major evidence of its impotence.
It takes literally seconds online to find out that the ICRC HAD been trying to gain access, but was blocked by Russia initially. If you don't want to sound deluded, do a little fact-checking first.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-red-cross-announces-prisoners-of-war-visits/a-64031634
It was trying to gain access if Russia would give guarantees. So no risks and a lot of talk to save face. Russia has its own office of the Red Cross as well as Belarus which participated in kidnapping Ukrainian children.
You are so uniformed that is painful to read.
Russian Red Cross participated in humiliation of Ukrainian prisoners of war under torture (multiple accounts). They are political and connected to the Russian government. International Red Cross does not act on this and only tries to deflect attention. "No access to prisoners = no problem" seems to be their motto as well.
"Sounds deluded" is not an argument by the way.
Again, posting a comment is not proof of anything. Show us your evidence and I will accept that you are not deluded. Which is an applicable word, because the ICRC has been non-political for over a century or else no would allow them access to POWs. Russia broke the Geneva Convention by doing so. Those are established facts. Show us the facts that contradict that. You say multiple accounts. Show us those. And they had better be verified by independent investigators or I will start using 'credulous' as well as 'deluded'.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/red-cross-visits-pows-held-by-russia-ukraine-commends-progress-2022-12-08/#:~:text=The%20International%20Committee%20of%20the%20Red%20Cross%20%28ICRC%29,described%20in%20a%20Thursday%20statement%20as%20%22important%20progress%22. Read and educate before posting ridicules comments.
Thanks for the update, Tom.
I think the Russian are experimenting new concepts in this war ans some of them are being taken to the factories as soon as they think that is "enough good", like the Cage over the tanks that now are built in from the factory.
The pronged mech assaults that we saw (looks more like parades really) in 2022 that were decimated by AT heavy equiped infantry and the proliferation of drones maybe are made them think about the futileness of a mechanized penetration like the Soviet doctrine called upon. Because Soviet doctrine dictates that when You get the breakthrough, You must pressure ir when all who can be put in enemy rear, T-90, T-55, even T-34 if toy are using them.
Maybe the new "1000 cuts" strategy, needs a new concepto they have not refined too.
The Russians are shown lots of incompetence on their own doctrine at the start of this war, but this is a new army, like we can't compare the soviet Army from 1941 to the victorious red army of 1944.
More striking to me is to observe than Nato armies are still trading "old equipment to Ukraine as they are looking their "ombligo" as we said here in Argentina, and still are not producing un war footing new equipment or refurbishing the thousands of tanks they stored in the 90s for be ready to use.
Regarding the 2022 operations, as you mention, they were more like a parade. I would call them a show of force, aiming to cow Ukraine into submission without firing a single shot - they were definitely not wartime assaults, so the Russians can't really draw consequences from them. If they could amass a few thousand tanks and support vehicles for the task, they could probably still make a strategic breakthrough, but they apparently don't have the numbers, capacity and training for that.
What 2022 did show is that they also have serious issues keeping their spearheads supplied. The Soviet army would have been probably able to do it, but I don't recall even them doing it in an actual war with native equipment (when they did it in WWII, they used hundreds of thousands of US-made vehicles - they wouldn't have had enough trucks themselves, not even back then).
Parade or not, they did manage to take a very big chunk of territory in a short span of time and the land bridge to Crimea was quickly established. We'll probably never know how close they came to overthrowing the government in Kiev.
It is a different, much more capable army today. So is Ukraine's. The difference is, Ukraine is at the mercy of NATO governments and Russia is not.
Even so , I doubt the Russian army is capable of big arrow offensives yet. Sure, they could attempt to emulate the Red Army's operations but the Soviets paid very dearly for those successes.
From Russian perspective it makes much more sense to slowly attrit the Ukrainian army, society and allied support. It took a very long time for the US to approve the most recent aid package for Ukraine. Well, in 10 months time the whole process starts again... more money, more weapons, more men, more everything.
By just seeing you writing “Kiev” but not “Kyiv” I could already tell about your affiliations
Well Sergei, Kiev is how millions of Ukrainians refer to Ukrainian capital in their native language. A language shared by the Ukrainian President as well the Ukrainian chief of armed forces. Ukraine should embrace its cultural and linguistic diversity.
This is how it is done in more civilized countries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cpc6JtENOE
You’re not interesting to anyone here
Erm....The assaults of the 35th CAA on positions of the 72nd Mech in the Moshchun area, in March 2022, were anything else than a 'parade'.
Almost an entire battalion of the brigade was KIA or WIA. Just the media missed them at the time, and the ZSU was too scared about a possible breakthrough but to report about that. Had the 72nd not held out there, the Russians would have reached Kyiv not only with 'few Spetsnaz and the VDV', but with an entire division of troops, and 'Boucha' would've been 'peanuts' in comparison.
Thanks for the update. I really wasn't aware of Moshchun being of such a scale (the news were more about the flooding of the Irpin area thwarting the Russian advance).
Voznesensk actually received coverage back then, though it was also more like "the Russians were already overextended and withdrew after unexpectedly coming under artillery fire".
There are few articles in the Ukrainian press, and two in the specialised US online media (like Small Wars Journal). Not particularly precise, but offering a good overview.
Thanks for this and for the update. I recall only about the "attacks repeled because overextended Russian forces".
Voznesensk was covered by The Atlantic, Moshun was covered in EXTREME detail by I think WaPo as part of an extremely long article about the Battle of Kyiv
Moshchun was the point were the Irpin was crossed successfully, but the Russians got stopped there immediately. It is the only place were Russian armored vehicles were east of the Irpin in direction of Kyiv.
That's why they tried encircling Kyiv by going South and got stopped there too. Main reason was Ukrainian resistance and no logistics in place...
....and then the blowing up of a dam: water swept away the third Russian pontoon bridge at Moshchun.
Thank you. Write, don't disappear for a long time.
Ukrainian woman from Pokrovsk.
Тримайтесь там. Сподіваюсь, до вас ці гніди не дійдуть
I disagree , the russians have not yet commited their reserves in the adviivka front .
What we are seeing are just infantery asults for the real thrust when the mobiks reinforcments will get to the front .
The russians have created this atrition war so some day they could broke the ukr lines and now IS the perfect moment .
I expect the Next months to be super imporant .
Sorry i haved said something worng , im spanish .
OK. Please explain: what reserve formations do the Russians have for the Avdiivka area?
I dont know what reserves the russians have in adviivka.
But I know that reserves for explotation are armored units not just infantry .
Btw i like a lot your content .
That's the point: it's units like the 90th Tank Division that are - already since Popasna in May 2022 - deployed to exploit breakthroughs.
And now the 90th TD is already involved in assaulting west of Avdiivka.
So, what unit with a similar capability to that of the 90th TD (at least in theory) is left as 'reserve' - in the Group Tsentr?
I can't find any.
Of course in my escenario im assuming that the RU have armored reserves in that front .
But that is not what im taliking about , im taliking that the units that are figthing in the orichitone axis are not reserve troops.
How man ... how can you state that orcs have reserves but you actually dont know ... write it down and read out loud
Nobody really knows where each unit of both armys are .
We only have limited info , we can only speculate .
Now It would be nice if you have some respect .
You are wrong. Ukrainian military observer Mashovets is regularly publishing reports in Tverezo.info about the exact locations of the Russian troops. You can read them using Google translation.
Yes of course the ukr milirary are going to give to the public all of the real info
What respect , this is the internet
respect for your fairy tales?
Sorry the cupboard is empty.
Thanks a lot again for keeping us connected to this crazines ... is possible to provide links to your updats of thwse 2 battles not sure im in the mood to check all your fb history
Had not heard about Robotyne. Thanks for that sad nugget. 2024 is shaping up to look like 2022 so far, not much widescale good news. Thanks for the update.
Thank you, Tom, for the update and for your help.
Thank you for your post on the 72nd Mech and their dire need right now. I'm the owner of TopCargo200.com and am in frequent contact with the boys in that unit. They've been in scary situations throughout this war, and have been in constant need of outside support, but I've never heard them more desperate for help than they are right now. They've been weathering daily airstrikes for weeks on end, causing a constant stream of wounded. But a couple days ago one of their positions took a direct hit from a FAB-500 and was obliterated. The men there were killed immediately, many more were wounded, and all their supplies there were destroyed.
The situation at the moment is extremely dire with regard to medical supplies. If anyone at all can help out, it would be an amazing act of caring for these boys that have done so much to save Ukraine:
https://topcargo200.com/ua72
Thanks for getting in touch (and sorry for not doing that on my own: really too busy today).
I'll see to re-post this request as often as possible.
It's heartbreaking to listen to the fear in the medics' voices when they talk about not being able to save their brothers because they don't have things as simple as sterile gauze or chest seals. On their behalf, I'd like to thank you again for the help spreading awareness. It truly does save lives.
Hello! I can't access your website neither from the phone, nor from the laptop. Can you check what happens, please? Maybe it is a cyberattack.
It was, indeed a cyberattack. A DDOS was used to disguise a much more hands-on attack that nearly deleted the entire site. We have recovered now and are back up and running! You can find details about it here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/cargo200/comments/1cp0ipz/site_status/
You have probably been asked this before but is drone striking Russian airbases the only way to decrease glide bomb attacks? also if thats the only way why arent ukraine focusing on that? maybe the targeting of oil is more important for the higher ups?
also funny that you mentioned you book since i just started reading it yeasterday
Well, alternatively, one could lob ATACMS at them - provided Biden/Blinken/Sullivan would permit delivery of longest-ranged variants... which is never going to happen.
Unless Ukrainians develop their counterpart... all there is are drones.
Nice for the good Tom asking money on behald of the 3rd Assault Brigade, aka Biletsky's Azov
Go treat your Azovphobia
So, two years since the Russians have captured half of what eventually became the Azov Brigade (the 3rd Assault is merely 'affiliated' with the Azov movement, but not the same unit)... and?
The Russian super-turbo PRBS-machinery can't show even one photo of 'Azov Nazis'?
Don't you find that strange, or could it be you simply can't care less to check before believing something?
Guys, no need to be upset, I only said that it is nice for Tom to ask money on behalf of Andriy Biletsky.
But just to sure that there are no propaganda here, I'm right in saying that Ukraine Army's 3rd Assault Brigade is a borne from the combination of the SSO Azov-Kyiv with the 98th Territorial Defense Battalion Azov-Dnipro (including its 3rd Company formed from the members of Centuria) and that its commander is Andriy Biletsky, the founder of the original Azov, that with the National Guard, right?
That explains why the Ukraine Army's 3rd Assault Brigade is so successful against Russian forces. and is known as one of the best Ukraine brigades.
Meaning what, that a volunteer unit founded and led by an ethno-nationalist supremacist according to which Ukrainian nation’s mission was to "lead the white races of the world in a final crusade … against Semite-led Untermenschen" is a very effective tool of war? Yes, I think you may be right
LOL!
Careful your Azovphobia is showing.
Why are you wasting our time with this nonsense?
LOL! So now citing the words of Biletsky makes you show Azovphobia?
Hello Tom. At least it looks like that 20 km deep break through isn't a scenario now( I hope). Anu information about ZSU Atacams strikes in Crimea? Looks like last burnt 2 c 300 launchers
Yes, have heard something like that but got no time to cross-check. Sorry for this: I'm still trying to catch with the news.
If I may, I would suggest 2 batches of 50 FPVs in order to speed up the deliveries. Collecting 40000 € can take long
Yup. Most likely, it's going to be run that way.
Tom, I would like to order a paper book with your autograph. How can I do it?
Sorry, but that might get very complex... I've got no copies left at home, and getting signed copies from the UK - that would have to wait until I get there to sign any, probably in November this year.
Operational reserves can be consumed but also reconstituted. There are multiple ways to do it and the easiest way is by nominating other units for this role.
'Yes, but'... the Operational Manoeuvre Group - the sort of obsession of Soviet/Russian military strategists... was never meant to consist of 'C-class' (or even lower) type of units, driving obsolete T-80 with non-operational turrets, and BMP-1.... at least not in the Year 2024.
Tom, the OMG of the wanning years of Cold War, one must expect than they consist of the cream of the Soviet Army.
Maybe this role are going to be fullfilled by the veterans units with good leaders that this war is going to create.
But in this environment, with allá the drones flying, I'm not so sure it's going to be a good idea to mass a Lot of armour in a rush to the rearguard.
Besides, what is the terrain west of Chasiv Yar and Ocheretine? Is flat like the North german Plain?
It's war ! Nothing that you planned in peace time will survive the test of battle, it's normal, especially after 2 years of fighting.
Another great update. Thank you
Tom: stupid question.....but [according to your "GOSPEL" map (o: ] why is the RuSSian 30th MRB NOT attacking the Ukrainian 115th Mech in the ASS. Yes I understand the the "GOSPEL MAP" may not be completely accurate....however, it sure looks like the 30th MRB is behind the 115th Mech.
Care to comment???
They did so. I.e. attacked from the west/south-west, 3-4 days ago. Was a co-reason why the 115th withdrew towards north.
Well golly Wolly....your map done forgots to tell me.... :o) cfgop0 (sorry about the last bit...that were me cat...a Golaith ANPU [Grey Tuxedo]