44 Comments
Aug 17Liked by Sarcastosaurus

An update from ISW:

Russian milbloggers claimed on August 16 that Russian drone operators are limiting their use of Mavic drones amid claims that Russian commanders are forcing operators to either personally pay to replace drones lost outside of combat or risk being sent to an infantry assault unit as punishment for losing a drone. Russian milbloggers claimed that one Mavic drone costs 400,000 rubles (about $4,475) to replace and that Russian commanders are particularly concerned about losing Mavic drones compared to other equipment due to frontline drone shortages. Russian milbloggers noted that losing drones is unavoidable but recommended that Russian drone operators do everything within their power – from writing their name on the drone to equipping the drone with a separate GPS beacon – to find their drones and avoid punishment.

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They could send them up in a motorized para glider with an i phone.

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But wouldnt the iPhone cost more than the drone then?

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Or maybe just a cheap smart phone or a camera?

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Could of course use some cheap Chinese. But I think the rule is stupid. Drone operators probably avoid loosing drones. Might of course sell them.

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Am I the only one to think that the cluster munitions variant of the Iskander M is not very effective? It seems to always be too much spread out and to not have enough "sub munitions".

It seems in most case it would be more effective to use a conventional one rather than the cluster variant and having 50% chance of hitting.

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Is a topic of the kind I do not like to discuss in the open... at least as long as the conflict in question is still going on...

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It was very effective against concentrations of troops

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Yesterday Ukrainian officials reported that a Mig-29 was shot near Dnipro. Being at home I heard through the open window one feeble explosion and after some time a rather loud one. So really it was a detonation quite close. I live approximately 10 km from the airport.

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Sounds like either:

- a) PSU's air defences shot down one of the Russian UAVs over Aviatorske, or

- b) another strike on the Aviatorske AB, like the one described here:

https://substack.com/@xxtomcooperxx/p-147789792

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The second strike seems to be successful. But nobody was killed or injured according to the officials.

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Oh gosh, you are very close to the murdering bastards. Keep safe, Elena.

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Excellent detail work as always Tom. Shame about the Patriot battery but good to debunk the other stuff. Russia PR continues to suck 🤷🏼‍♂️.

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Thanks Tom,

I thought that the Mig-29 hit was also a decoy. Anyway, probably was mistaken.

I read that the Russians have retreated to the eastern bank of river Seim (implying abandoning Tetkino) Any news from your side?

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And that Korenevo has fallen (Ukrainian sources).

Maybe FSB has finally come to terms with reality.

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Thank for update. Nevertheless, I have concerns about case 3.You claimed that there were secondary explosion on the picture, but only explosion that I see is one on the ECM(claimed radar), not on launchers. Moreover, it seems that it is very likely an explosion of submunition that fell later. Are there any secondaries on launchers?

Secondly, there are absent track traces. Do you know can they be formed after one driving on ground or need repeated drivings? Because I heard opinion that it can be decoy due to absence of support vehicles ( like in the column near Pokrovsk this spring), absence of secondary explosions of launchers and absence of tracks( decoy definitely is lighter than original), but it is only theory. Anyway, as I understood no piece was destroyed and radar didn't suffer

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It seems that Ukraine had some experience in unmanned hunters of the shock type. For example, the joint Ukrainian-British jet drone ACE ONE. I quote: "Ultra-fast combat drone with stealth technologies and "swarm capabilities", according to the developers, is capable of carrying weapons weighing up to 1 ton in internal compartments." This apparatus turned out to be unnecessary for the Ukrainian authorities, because they had the Minsk agreements with the maniac. Now these idiots fly on old Yak-52 to shoot down at least something in the sky. Also, being in this state and having lost people and territory, the Ukrainian authorities did not invest a cent in their missile program "Sapsan/Grim2". Everything was done at the expense of Saudi Arabia. What do we have as a result? That Ukraine has nothing of its own due to the criminal inaction of the marauding authorities, and the USA, although it gives its weapons, does not allow them to be used to the full extent and puts sticks in the wheels. It is obvious that the Pentagon is dragging this war out as much as possible. No one there is interested in a quick end to this war. I used to think that one of the reasons might be that Biden needed to be re-elected for a second term and that's why he's dragging this out for so long, but now I'm not sure. Every normal person understands that it is necessary to strike in advance, but the Pentagon thinks otherwise. I have the impression that it is better for Ukraine to constantly lose specialists and precious equipment than to find these "Iskanders" and strike them in advance. I cannot find logic in these prohibitions. This is madness.

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Which is more mad - being afraid of "escalation", or seeing the war as an opportunity to burn up Russian weapon supplies?

It seems to me that the Russian people are losing touch with reality more and more as the war goes on, their delusion that the west is being unfair to them is growing, and hence they are more likely to escalate the longer the west allows the war to drag on. Likewise, giving Ukraine the power to kick Russia out quickly would minimise the risk.

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«It seems to me that the Russian people are losing touch with reality more and more as the war goes on, their delusion that the west is being unfair to them is growing, and hence they are more likely to escalate the longer the west allows the war to drag on» – You don't understand Russians. It will not matter if the West treats them well or vice versa. They were zombies during the Soviet Union, so they remained. They will always blame someone for their troubles, they will always hate you. I never liked this idiotic message from the West that everything is only Putin's fault and Russians are so good and innocent. No! The system is always people. The main problem has always been the readiness of the Russians to support this system, obey it and carry out all criminal orders. That is, to unquestioningly carry out all the criminal orders of the superiors and without thinking about the consequences. Now is not 30 years of the last century. There is internet everywhere. Russians perfectly understand what their army is doing and they support it, pay taxes, work at military factories, send their relatives here, bless them to kill. I guarantee you that their young generation, which is raised on this propaganda, will be worse than any ISIS terrorist. They will kill without doubt and believe that they are doing it for a great purpose and good for their state.

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Following your queer logic, both US and UK must be dismantled for the unfair and illegal invasion of Iraq and Afganistan and related atrocities. To say nothing about holy Israel that is bombing Palestine to stone age. And I am failing to remember any widespread protests inside country aggressors.

Problem is that in any country population (say, 90% of it) is brainwashed and does not have own opinion.

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Aug 17·edited Aug 18

Do you know what the Baath party is? They are like Middle Eastern Nazis. And their ideology was similar. Poor Saddam Hussein, he only wanted to kill and get nuclear technology to kill more and commit genocides, and the evil West cynically stopped him and hanged him.

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Aug 17·edited Aug 17

Good intentions lead to hell. See what happened now to Iraq, Libya, Afganistan.

Following your logic about Baath I can write a small ironic justification of the recent war: the failed state of Ukraine, which lost 1/5 of its population before the Crimea case of 2014 due to emigration and high mortality rate caused by unbearable conditions of life. The country that's been ruled by corrupted authorities that were selling arms since 1991 to any dictator or criminal regime ready to pay, a country that gave asylum to nazis and were hunting down ethnic minorities activists. The glorious army of Russia came to help and save people of MaloRossia.

Seriuosly, with a proper PR and political support one can justify any war or act of violence.

And yes, my favoured question: Crimea annexed and Kosovo...liberated?)

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Everything you wrote is delusional.

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Aug 17·edited Aug 17

Well, Typ, I fail to see how a UN sanctioned invasion of Afghanistan - in which your own country supported and assisted the U.S. invasion providing airspace and landing rights - merits second guessing; and of course the first Gulf War was UN sanctioned as well. Where are the parallels? I mean you clearly sound like the desperate type to draw moral equivalence to the juvenile antics & stupidity at Abu Ghraib with the bestial beheading of Ukrainians. Or whataboutism the American massacre of 26 civilians in Iraq and Russia's actions at Bucha? Well, the US soldiers were sent to jail; the Bucha perpetrators were given medals, Guards honorific and a bottle of Putinka to each Vatnik involved. But that's morally equivalent to you apparently.

As for Crimea and Kosovo, a really poor stretch to compare, Serbia was bombed to prevent another Srebrenicsa; and Kosovo is independent while Crimea was simply occupied. I mean I might have more sympathy for your ridiculous false analogy if Crimea was given independence - afterall, they were well on their way to autonomy as it was, but Putin's invasion and annexation betray lack of an honest effort and more of a simple land grab.

I mean for christs sake if your going to claim a moral equivalence at least MAKE a moral equivalence.

Don't your handlers give you better scripts to regurgitate?

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Of course, I could be wrong, but it seems to me that the main goal for the USA remains the same as before - to get over Russia from China. That is why triofantasticus invites all this powerless and idiotic Russian opposition, PR on the Internet of all these Khodorkovskys, Feigins and others, who at one time Putin pushed out of Russia together with Berezovsky, who was then killed. In my opinion, the best option would be the collapse of Russia into a thousand pieces.

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This is just a personal opinion, but during the collapse of the Soviet Union one of the great fears was the fragmentation and takeover by unreliable states or by terrorist or mafia entities of part of the Russian nuclear arsenal. I think that this fear still exists, and that it is one of the factors that makes our decision-makers cautious. They are not afraid of a nuclear strike but that after a total defeat the Russian state will collapse. They need a Russia that loses but whose state remains stable.

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Do you understand that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the North Korean nuclear program collapsed, and when Putin and his hydra came to power, cooperation immediately resumed? Missiles fall constantly off the coast of Japan. Do you understand that the Kremlin sponsors terrorism and murder? And cooperation between the Kremlin and Iran in nuclear programs? And the murders and bombing by the Kremlin of hundreds of thousands of Syrians with tens of millions of refugees who rushed to Europe? What prevents the Kremlin from giving nuclear weapons to some terrorist organization in order to carry out a terrorist attack on the territory of other countries? For example, the Kremlin gave Assad chemical weapons, where he used them in the city of Douma. I believe that a divided Russia will be much safer.

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Thanks Tom for this update, I have a question yesterday I read somewhere that the Russians were glide bombing Sudzha anything to that

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Good analysis Tom, tend to agree that unexploded launchers of Iris look strange.

And yes, the first battery should have been attacked with another Iskander. My imho that despite several times incresead production, there are still not enough of these supereffecient missiles.

Good thing is that in 2024 they are being used in the most proper manner - versus high-value mobile targets like long-range SAMs, MLRS (two days ago at least two precious Himars (or similar) were destroyed), jets on airfields or railway stations full of armour on transit. Iskander is indispensable in this role and I expect huge export orders after the war following its achieved eminence.

Theoretically Patriots could down Iskanders and most likely do it from time to time. However, as regular videos show, most of strikes go with impunity. After Tom's excellent essay about missile strikes on Kiev on 8th of July, I hope noone will proceed believe in UA overclaims about Iskanders, Kinzhals, KH-22/32 downed in numbers.

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На прохання трудящих, видаляю початковий коментар. Від своїх слів не відмовляюсь - цей акаунт свідомо поширює анти-українські фейки і пропаганду

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Хочеш щось сказати, кажи по суті, а не цей каскад погроз і брудної лайки. Мені соромно за тебе. Ти виставляєш українців бидлом.

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Я вже кілька разів намагався донести до автора блогу і читачів, що цей акаунт свідомо поширює пропаганду і завідомо неправдиву інформацію. Крім того, в кількох відповідях на мої коментарі, він явно виражав мені погрози і в цілому висловлювався принизливо стосовно українців загалом і, зокремо, стосовно мешканців заходу України.

Такі його коментарі читає західна аудиторія, і не маючи розуміння хто такі кацапи, і які в них методи, часто серйозно сприймає його "висери".

На жаль, автор блогу особисто знає цього дописувача і відмовляється його блокувати.

Тому сорі, але все що мені залишається, це просто глузувати з цього персонажа. Якщо переглянути інші відповіді на його коментарі, то я не один, хто прямо каже цьому персонажу хто він і що про нього думають.

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Aug 17·edited Aug 18

Я теж з ним трохи поспілкувався і відразу зрозумів, що він слово в слово повторює кремлівську пропаганду про агресорів США, які вторглися "безпричинно" в "мирний" Ірак Саддама Хусейна. Але я не ображав його і не писав грубості, тому що в цьому немає ніякого сенсу, і з таким підходом неможливо порозумітися. Погодьтеся, що краще навести кілька історичних фактів, ніж писати нецензурні слова. Факти – це така річ, яку неможливо оскаржити. Ну і опускатися до рівня нецензурних слів теж не додасть вам авторитету в очах інших, а зовсім навпаки.

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you're both right

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Ти говори за себе, а не за інших.

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Стосовно писання по суті.

Як взагалі можна коментувати маячню цього чорта? Коментувати вихваляння кацапа черговою анало-говнєтною шляпою, яка виробляється поштучно і цілком залежить від західних компонентів, які кацапи отримують з імпорту пралок? Про який експорт іскандерів він меле, якщо русня випрошує ракети в КНДР і ірану?

Про яку ефективність іскандерів він говорить? Про відео попадання в черговий сарай в полі де було знищено 100500 "польскіх і францускін найомнікав і чєрнакожих гєнєралав", яке вони крутять десятки разів з різних ракурсів і постійно видають за нове? Чому я маю не довіряти укр генштабу, який визнає 100% ефективність Петріоту проти анало-говнєтного кинжалу?

Кожне посилання чи твердження цієї свинособаки - це з ймовірністю 99% або фейк або старе відео, яке вони прокручують з різних ракурсів.

І саме сумніше, що західна аудиторія не розуміє, що за цим акаунтом сидить черговий фсбешний підар, і з серйозним лицем обговорює його висери.

То що ти хотів почути по суті?

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Aug 17·edited Aug 17

You expect huge export orders for Iskanders after war?

Sweet Mother of Pearl - who would buy from losing side?

Theoretically we can setup Iskander-for-Food program after the war, you already have the expertise of such program after losing Cold War, when you paid for your debts and food with military equipment.

Iskander for British sausage rolls sounds like a fair swap - the latter has definitely more home grown pork inside than your "missile" has home built chips

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As long as we only send them Greg’s Vegan Sausage stills

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Aug 17·edited Aug 17

Greg's? That's spoiling them. If you ever tasted russian cuisine, you'd know that Tesco valued vegan sausage roll is good enough for them

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I meant rolls not stills !

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Thanks for the detailed analysis. Really interesting from a methodological point of view how you analyse materiale. As it was to see how you analyse Russian claims.

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