How dangerous are russia planes for CMO? If the Hmeymim AB will be regullary attacked have Russia another airport where they can move and operate their planes?
BM30 are probably not so accurate as HIMARS so they need a relative big target to be really effective and i am not sure if there is a better target as airports.
Yes it can take some weeks, but cannot UA instructors help them?
I guess, the GUR will want to put its eyes and hands on that Podlet. So, yes, in return, the CMO could request advice with BM-30s in return.
As for their precision: it's all about aiming. In the VSRF's service, BM-30s can be targeted with help of the system used to target Iskander-Ms. And that is precise enough to target single MiG-29s hidden under camouflage nets at the Aviatorske AB, outside Dnipro.
I admit I wanted to ask, which option would be best for ordinary Syrians, but have quickly realized it is a very naive question. With so many foreign players involved, it will never be better for Syrians. But maybe toppling Assad will bring them at least some relief...
Regarding calls for Moscow to do more for Assad, the Kremlin announced today that the level of support depends on their assessment of the situation in Syria.
That means if there is only an alibi of support from the Russians, they have written off Assad. These ineffective air strikes and the simultaneous withdrawal of ground troops are just such alibi support.
It seems as if Putin believes that a complete defeat of Assad is at least "quite possible," judging by this statement.
This gave me a random idea: could it be Putin asked Assad for help earlier, got denied and this withdrawal is payback? I'm guessing Assad doesn't have much to give and Russia's interests in the region are unchanged, so that's likely a wrong guess, but I'd love a confirmation from someone who knows more.
I think part of the reason this situation is so complex from a geopolitical point of view - if we're going to admit any geopolitical point of view - is that not only is it a "30 Years War" style omnishambles, but also Assad's head now has a bargaining chip value with respect to two live conflicts in Gaza/Lebanon and Ukraine.
Erdogan would like to be the big man in NATO who has Assad by the balls and therefore leverage over Putin. If the CMO goes all the way, he loses that leverage and ends up with the huge headache of responsibility for re-stabilizing Syria, and Iran and its supporters charging (with plausibility) that he's weakened Hezbollah.
Thank you so much. When I lived in the Arab world, I was constantly told that today's Irak was the centre of the Arab world. Has this changed since the US invasion ?
Don't know who's told you that with Iraq, but, when I'm chatting with Saudis, Emiratis, Qataris, even Bahrainis... (not 'only' with Syrians) it's always the 'Sham'. Kind of, 'that's where the culture and civilisation are from'.
Well, my discussion partners are Lebanese and Palestinians. Saudis, Emiratis, Quataris and Bahrainis are not even considered "Arabs" by them. And Syrians, well, it is difficult for all communities. The Mesopotamian Arabic spoken in today's Irak is thought of as the prestige Arabic wheras the Levantine Arabic is more considered a vernacular.
I think Iraq being the centre of the Arabic world was a proclamation of Saddam, but not much more. The last time it could reasonably claim anyhing like that was probably the heyday of the Abbasid caliphate in the early 9th century.
Looks like Assad is already abandoning Hama, things happen so quickly, also dont stop making Syrian updates, some people may not like but most of us would gladly read anything you write
Thank you for educating me on this subject. For the first time in years I feel like I have somewhat of an understanding of the situation there. How extensively are the CMO utilizing drones? Seems like the Ukrainians could help with some training there to keep Russia occupied.
How the "insurgents" battle with null control of sky? How figh agains CAP missions of "syrian" air force. Use "" for not be wrong with proper names. Thanks in advance
I'm sorry Tom, but will have to disagree with you. While the word "jihadi" these days can mean whatever the speaker wants it to mean, HTS are at their core militant Salafi Islamists, so if "jihadi" doesn't fit them, it doesn't fit anyone. Just because they have - so far - committed to national as opposed to international jihad doesn't make em any different. Much the same way as Lenin didn't magically stop being a Bolshevik when he announced a (temporary/incomplete) move away from international revolution and committed to "building communism in a single country".
Closer to the AOR, we have the example of the Talibs, who also promised that they will be tolerant and "rule of law" rulers, two years on, we see how that worked out. Sure, Talibs fight ISIS K, much like HTS fights ISIS and AlQ. Those groups are a threat to their rule. Doesn'take them any less "jihadi".
Just to put a disclaimer, no, the above doesn't mean that Assad/RF/IRGC/Turkey/YPG-PKK-SDF are "good guys". There are no "good guys" in this conflict, whoever wins, the people of Syria will lose and continue to suffer.
You think I 'like' Jowlani? That I'm a fan or something?
Cold fact is: of all the Syrian insurgent leaders since Ryadh al-Assad (founder of the Free Syrian Army), he's the first one to have provided clear evidence he can think logically, learn and act according to lessons learned. And, he's the first Syrian insurgent leader ever that can act on his own.
(Actually; he's showing he can learn and re-think better than any of Arab dictators of the last 110 years.)
Is he a Salafist?
Oh yes. And what a Salafist. 'Just', there's that issue with Syrian Salafists: deeply religious on one side, praying five times a day, and 'fans of Nicolle Kidman and liking Metallica's music on the other' (is a 'dumb' example if you like, but one I recall very well). They're not the same like what is known as 'Salafists/Salafism' here in the EU - which is, actually, Wahhabism (or worse). Primarily because of Egyptian and Saudi, but also Qatari and Emirati PRBS.
(BTW, Ibn Tayymiya remains completely unknown even between Syrian Salafists until this very day.)
As next: what you understand under 'Jihadist', and what is the mass of people reading this understanding as 'Jihadist' are two entirely different things. You understand (and explain) the 'JIhadist' in its original meaning. The mass of people here has never been to the Middle East (not to talk about Syria), and the only thing they understand and associate with 'Jihadist' is 'terrorist & cutthroat'.
Finally, comparing Taliban and the HTS... now you've lost me. And you've lost me because comparing even the entire 'Nusra/HTS/CMO-story' with al-Qaeda, Daesh, and the Taliban is an indication of just one thing: of somebody best advised not to discuss Syria in the public.
Sorry Tom, wasnt implying that you like HTS. If I thought this, I would think you a fool and wouldn't be reading your blog.
As far as being "fundamentalist" but liking Metallica, having a drink in private, having sex with men (or other stuff), thats just human nature (hypocrisy), and as a rule hypocrisy is often directly proportional to outward religious piety. Nothing special here, and doesn't change who they are. It's not what they do in private that is concerning.
To expand on the Talib-HTS comparison, it was meant towards the many folks out there saying "HTS fights AlQ and ISIS and that makes them "good Islamists"" and the folks saying "they aren't massacring minorities or imposing a harsh version of Sharia" (yet). Talibs are the only example I could think in modern history of Islamist insirgents coming to power, so the comparison is obviously of limited utility beyond the narrow scope above. If you can offer a better comparison, I am open to it.
a) complete failure of the US/NATO to take care about 95% of the Afghan population (which drove ever more of Afghans to join the Taliban), and
b) because Qatar was funding them, and Pakistan organising, training, and commanding them (actually: Pakistani ISI established the Taliban, back in 1994, and was supporting them all the while from 2001 until 2021) - while both were declared by US/NATO for 'most important non-NATO allies'.
Thanks Tom. Please in the next report on Syria put the territories controlled by the parties on a general map of the country so that it is clear who holds what.
What is happening in Syria, given the Russian and Iranian involement and the practical alliance between the two, (Shaheeds etc) could very much be a part of the Ukraine story.
As on the live map there are ambushes reported on the M5 highway from Hama to Homs, which is hard for me to imagine are already troops from the former Idlib enclave, would that be rather local resistance or prepared troops that got undercover in there?
That's the insurgents of the Ra'astan-Talbiseh Pocket: the two places are hotbeds of the uprising right since 2011. They were free, but surrounded by Assadists from 2012 until 2017. Have 'signed a reconciliation' (mediated by the Russians), but are now in arms again.
However, the CMO must overcome two much bigger problems to get there.
Assadists and the IRGC are sending whatever they only have to Homs. Moreover, there's a huge ravine in between the elevated plain on which Homs is positioned, and southern Syria with Damascus. If the highway connecting the two is blown up, that's not easy to cross.
Moreover, Homs is the connection between the rest of Syria and the coastal plain: whoever controls it, controls also the highway to Tartous (and thus to Banyas and Latakia in the west, or to Palmyra etc. in the east).
So, me thinks: decisive battle will be fought in the Homs area.
Geography determins that. It just makes a difference about the amount of troops you can send or send, if there is all of a sudden an uprising in the neighbourhoods in Damascus, where there was heavy fighting in the time of the civil war (not knowing how many fled through deals though).
All of the Greater Damascus was almost completely ethnically cleansed: essentially, districts populated and held by insurgents were all starved into giving up and then bussed to Idlib. Ever since, such districts like Darayya, are under the IRGC control and settled by the Shi'a.
Another excellent piece of information from Tom Cooper!
I know a little bit of Syria from my own experience (~29 months in 2 UN missions as part of UNDOF, living in Damascus on the weekends for ~15 months).
As far as I could read from other sources Hama is already lost for Assad, so it will be 'High Noon' in and around Homs, as there is the last road connection (M20) to the power base of Assad (he is a member of the Alawites with their settlements in the province of Latakia).
Some conclusions are already clear:
1) If Assad is gone the RF would lose their basses in Syria, which would be a very heavy blow to their African ambitions.
2) It would also be a heavy blow for Iran, as they would lose their land connection to the Lebanon.
But there are also some interesting questions left open:
1) How far will Erdogan go to achieve his undefined (at least to me) goals?
2) How stable is the coalition led by the HTS?
I guess in a short time we will know a lot more with the most important question left:
When will there be a real peace in Syria so that this state and its population can start to recover from too many years of a stupid and not needed war, which ruined so much of the country?
Thanks for situation description.
How dangerous are russia planes for CMO? If the Hmeymim AB will be regullary attacked have Russia another airport where they can move and operate their planes?
BM30 are probably not so accurate as HIMARS so they need a relative big target to be really effective and i am not sure if there is a better target as airports.
Yes it can take some weeks, but cannot UA instructors help them?
I guess, the GUR will want to put its eyes and hands on that Podlet. So, yes, in return, the CMO could request advice with BM-30s in return.
As for their precision: it's all about aiming. In the VSRF's service, BM-30s can be targeted with help of the system used to target Iskander-Ms. And that is precise enough to target single MiG-29s hidden under camouflage nets at the Aviatorske AB, outside Dnipro.
I think you meant GUR?
Yup. Was a typo, and have corrected this already.
(Mind that I'm more used to researching and writing about the Russian GRU than about the Ukrainian GUR.)
I admit I wanted to ask, which option would be best for ordinary Syrians, but have quickly realized it is a very naive question. With so many foreign players involved, it will never be better for Syrians. But maybe toppling Assad will bring them at least some relief...
Topping Assad would probably get the Russians out and maybe the Iranians. So probably an improvement. But for how long? And even that is assuming.
Regarding calls for Moscow to do more for Assad, the Kremlin announced today that the level of support depends on their assessment of the situation in Syria.
That means if there is only an alibi of support from the Russians, they have written off Assad. These ineffective air strikes and the simultaneous withdrawal of ground troops are just such alibi support.
It seems as if Putin believes that a complete defeat of Assad is at least "quite possible," judging by this statement.
This gave me a random idea: could it be Putin asked Assad for help earlier, got denied and this withdrawal is payback? I'm guessing Assad doesn't have much to give and Russia's interests in the region are unchanged, so that's likely a wrong guess, but I'd love a confirmation from someone who knows more.
Like they said on Moscow TV, "We can't be more Syrian than the Syrians".
Seems like a new iteration of the Thirty Years' War at this point.
That's that way since at least November 2011.
Thanks for the continuing series.
I think part of the reason this situation is so complex from a geopolitical point of view - if we're going to admit any geopolitical point of view - is that not only is it a "30 Years War" style omnishambles, but also Assad's head now has a bargaining chip value with respect to two live conflicts in Gaza/Lebanon and Ukraine.
Erdogan would like to be the big man in NATO who has Assad by the balls and therefore leverage over Putin. If the CMO goes all the way, he loses that leverage and ends up with the huge headache of responsibility for re-stabilizing Syria, and Iran and its supporters charging (with plausibility) that he's weakened Hezbollah.
Thank you Tom !
Thank you so much. When I lived in the Arab world, I was constantly told that today's Irak was the centre of the Arab world. Has this changed since the US invasion ?
Don't know who's told you that with Iraq, but, when I'm chatting with Saudis, Emiratis, Qataris, even Bahrainis... (not 'only' with Syrians) it's always the 'Sham'. Kind of, 'that's where the culture and civilisation are from'.
Well, my discussion partners are Lebanese and Palestinians. Saudis, Emiratis, Quataris and Bahrainis are not even considered "Arabs" by them. And Syrians, well, it is difficult for all communities. The Mesopotamian Arabic spoken in today's Irak is thought of as the prestige Arabic wheras the Levantine Arabic is more considered a vernacular.
Don't call Mesopotamian Arabic a 'prestige Arabic' in presence of the Syrians, please. ;-)
(Thinking of it: it was always 'funny' to watch Iraqis and Syrians experiencing major problem with understanding each other.)
Oh, I would not dare. :)
I think Iraq being the centre of the Arabic world was a proclamation of Saddam, but not much more. The last time it could reasonably claim anyhing like that was probably the heyday of the Abbasid caliphate in the early 9th century.
Tom, again: deduct - abziehen (to remove from, subtract)
deduce - ableiten (to infer, draw a conclusion from)
Great stuff, as always. Please keep poking the finger of inquiry into the flabby bellies of the world's preposterous leaders.
Looks like Assad is already abandoning Hama, things happen so quickly, also dont stop making Syrian updates, some people may not like but most of us would gladly read anything you write
Now photos are circulating from inside Hama military airport, I hope there are some useful things there to capture.
According to WasPost (I know….) Assad troops have already fled Hamas.
This claimed to be an announcement from Syrian Defence ministry they are running away from Hama, or similar words to minimise civilian losses
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1864649733546897743
Thank you for educating me on this subject. For the first time in years I feel like I have somewhat of an understanding of the situation there. How extensively are the CMO utilizing drones? Seems like the Ukrainians could help with some training there to keep Russia occupied.
Always glad to be of help.
Re. CMO and UAVs: AFAIK, it's 'about 40 FPVs a day'.
Ukrainian 'involvement' was mentioned yesterday: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/syria-war-4-december-2024
Essentially, they provided certain technical and software solutions.
Guess, alone because the CMO captured that Podlet radar, there's 'outlooks for much more', though. In this regards, the GUR knows no qualms.
How the "insurgents" battle with null control of sky? How figh agains CAP missions of "syrian" air force. Use "" for not be wrong with proper names. Thanks in advance
I'm sorry Tom, but will have to disagree with you. While the word "jihadi" these days can mean whatever the speaker wants it to mean, HTS are at their core militant Salafi Islamists, so if "jihadi" doesn't fit them, it doesn't fit anyone. Just because they have - so far - committed to national as opposed to international jihad doesn't make em any different. Much the same way as Lenin didn't magically stop being a Bolshevik when he announced a (temporary/incomplete) move away from international revolution and committed to "building communism in a single country".
Closer to the AOR, we have the example of the Talibs, who also promised that they will be tolerant and "rule of law" rulers, two years on, we see how that worked out. Sure, Talibs fight ISIS K, much like HTS fights ISIS and AlQ. Those groups are a threat to their rule. Doesn'take them any less "jihadi".
Just to put a disclaimer, no, the above doesn't mean that Assad/RF/IRGC/Turkey/YPG-PKK-SDF are "good guys". There are no "good guys" in this conflict, whoever wins, the people of Syria will lose and continue to suffer.
You think I 'like' Jowlani? That I'm a fan or something?
Cold fact is: of all the Syrian insurgent leaders since Ryadh al-Assad (founder of the Free Syrian Army), he's the first one to have provided clear evidence he can think logically, learn and act according to lessons learned. And, he's the first Syrian insurgent leader ever that can act on his own.
(Actually; he's showing he can learn and re-think better than any of Arab dictators of the last 110 years.)
Is he a Salafist?
Oh yes. And what a Salafist. 'Just', there's that issue with Syrian Salafists: deeply religious on one side, praying five times a day, and 'fans of Nicolle Kidman and liking Metallica's music on the other' (is a 'dumb' example if you like, but one I recall very well). They're not the same like what is known as 'Salafists/Salafism' here in the EU - which is, actually, Wahhabism (or worse). Primarily because of Egyptian and Saudi, but also Qatari and Emirati PRBS.
(BTW, Ibn Tayymiya remains completely unknown even between Syrian Salafists until this very day.)
As next: what you understand under 'Jihadist', and what is the mass of people reading this understanding as 'Jihadist' are two entirely different things. You understand (and explain) the 'JIhadist' in its original meaning. The mass of people here has never been to the Middle East (not to talk about Syria), and the only thing they understand and associate with 'Jihadist' is 'terrorist & cutthroat'.
Finally, comparing Taliban and the HTS... now you've lost me. And you've lost me because comparing even the entire 'Nusra/HTS/CMO-story' with al-Qaeda, Daesh, and the Taliban is an indication of just one thing: of somebody best advised not to discuss Syria in the public.
What is worse than Wahhabism?
Stupidty?
In context of radical Islam and I prefer stupidty over that
Sorry Tom, wasnt implying that you like HTS. If I thought this, I would think you a fool and wouldn't be reading your blog.
As far as being "fundamentalist" but liking Metallica, having a drink in private, having sex with men (or other stuff), thats just human nature (hypocrisy), and as a rule hypocrisy is often directly proportional to outward religious piety. Nothing special here, and doesn't change who they are. It's not what they do in private that is concerning.
To expand on the Talib-HTS comparison, it was meant towards the many folks out there saying "HTS fights AlQ and ISIS and that makes them "good Islamists"" and the folks saying "they aren't massacring minorities or imposing a harsh version of Sharia" (yet). Talibs are the only example I could think in modern history of Islamist insirgents coming to power, so the comparison is obviously of limited utility beyond the narrow scope above. If you can offer a better comparison, I am open to it.
Taliban climbed to power for two reasons:
a) complete failure of the US/NATO to take care about 95% of the Afghan population (which drove ever more of Afghans to join the Taliban), and
b) because Qatar was funding them, and Pakistan organising, training, and commanding them (actually: Pakistani ISI established the Taliban, back in 1994, and was supporting them all the while from 2001 until 2021) - while both were declared by US/NATO for 'most important non-NATO allies'.
https://ria-m.tv/ua/news/366424/siriyski-povstantsi-zahopili-hamu-v-chomu-vajlivist-mista-dlya-asada.html
Thanks Tom. Please in the next report on Syria put the territories controlled by the parties on a general map of the country so that it is clear who holds what.
Hmm, i know Syria is the new hot topic, but what happened with the reports for Ukraine ?
And what do you think, about the reports that the Iraq army will go help Assad ?
What is happening in Syria, given the Russian and Iranian involement and the practical alliance between the two, (Shaheeds etc) could very much be a part of the Ukraine story.
I doubt it, i think RF will not increase their support and Iran was already involved. I doubt Iran is supporting RF like in the start.
Thanks Tom,
As on the live map there are ambushes reported on the M5 highway from Hama to Homs, which is hard for me to imagine are already troops from the former Idlib enclave, would that be rather local resistance or prepared troops that got undercover in there?
That's the insurgents of the Ra'astan-Talbiseh Pocket: the two places are hotbeds of the uprising right since 2011. They were free, but surrounded by Assadists from 2012 until 2017. Have 'signed a reconciliation' (mediated by the Russians), but are now in arms again.
I guess there are more groups like that on the way to Damascus?
Yes, in the Dmeyr area, for example.
However, the CMO must overcome two much bigger problems to get there.
Assadists and the IRGC are sending whatever they only have to Homs. Moreover, there's a huge ravine in between the elevated plain on which Homs is positioned, and southern Syria with Damascus. If the highway connecting the two is blown up, that's not easy to cross.
Moreover, Homs is the connection between the rest of Syria and the coastal plain: whoever controls it, controls also the highway to Tartous (and thus to Banyas and Latakia in the west, or to Palmyra etc. in the east).
So, me thinks: decisive battle will be fought in the Homs area.
Geography determins that. It just makes a difference about the amount of troops you can send or send, if there is all of a sudden an uprising in the neighbourhoods in Damascus, where there was heavy fighting in the time of the civil war (not knowing how many fled through deals though).
All of the Greater Damascus was almost completely ethnically cleansed: essentially, districts populated and held by insurgents were all starved into giving up and then bussed to Idlib. Ever since, such districts like Darayya, are under the IRGC control and settled by the Shi'a.
Thanks for the answer. I didn't expect this to be that bad, omg.
That is basically like resetteling half of Vienna.
Another excellent piece of information from Tom Cooper!
I know a little bit of Syria from my own experience (~29 months in 2 UN missions as part of UNDOF, living in Damascus on the weekends for ~15 months).
As far as I could read from other sources Hama is already lost for Assad, so it will be 'High Noon' in and around Homs, as there is the last road connection (M20) to the power base of Assad (he is a member of the Alawites with their settlements in the province of Latakia).
Some conclusions are already clear:
1) If Assad is gone the RF would lose their basses in Syria, which would be a very heavy blow to their African ambitions.
2) It would also be a heavy blow for Iran, as they would lose their land connection to the Lebanon.
But there are also some interesting questions left open:
1) How far will Erdogan go to achieve his undefined (at least to me) goals?
2) How stable is the coalition led by the HTS?
I guess in a short time we will know a lot more with the most important question left:
When will there be a real peace in Syria so that this state and its population can start to recover from too many years of a stupid and not needed war, which ruined so much of the country?