Well, on one side - and for reasons explained yesterday: https://substack.com/home/post/p-149676030 - the IRGC does not want to 'go too far', and offer Netanyahu an excuse to launch a nuclear strike on Iran.
On the other, the Israelis (and supporters) are hell-or-bent on 'proving that Iranians can't hurt them'. Indeed, they are foremost interested in presenting all of this as 'acts of terror': at the times their own military is massacring hundreds of civilians every single day, it's inopportune (for them) to start providing evidence for Iranians targeting (almost) exclusively military targets.
Therefore, don't expect to get 'extensive sets of photographs confirming Iranian hits causing damage to military facilities in Israel'.
Over 90% of all the videos released and showing hits inside Israel - were taken and released by Palestinians. So, one can't expect a lot more in this regards.
Other reason: IRGC wants to have something hidden to play the card "we can strike much harder". I.e. for them it's more important such to be such a threat than a real conflict.
By that logic we would not have any evidence of Ukraine successfully destroying Russian military objects. And yet we do, because private satellite imaging companies. So, I would assume that there is more demand for these pictures than for shovels at Stalin's funeral;)
If the Iranian strike got through and was actually able to hit what they were aiming at (air bases for example), it will be all over Twitter by today or tomorrow.
I also found it funny that Israel and Usa said that there was no damage, while I have seen at least a couple of videos in which it's clear dozens of missiles hit something. But this "propaganda" (saying that nothing was hit) is working, in the media no one is talking about the damage.
I'm also rilievied that Iran decided to strike mostly military bases and kinds, even though maybe you should have mentioned the terrorist attack with dozens of killer, clearly organized with iranian complicity.
Regarding the terrorist attack by two Palestinians on Tel Aviv: 'sorry but', I've reached my physical and mental limits already 'months ago' (if not longer), and therefore I'm focusing on military affairs.
For the same reasons I'm not reporting on the Israeli genocide on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, or the Russian genocide on Ukrainians in such cities regularly targeted like Kharkiv, I'm not reporting on Palestinian terror attacks either.
I could have added the Hezbollah strike on Sde Dov AB, from yesterday (results unknown, as usually), or the Hezbollah ambush of an IDF company in southern Lebanon, from this morning (causing 20+ casualties). Run out of space for that (there's a limit of what can be packed into a single Substack post), and that would be also 'slightly out of context' of the story presented here. I do intend to come back to both affairs in the coming days, though.
I'm overwhelmed by all of these terrible wars (also Myanmar and Sudan, which I'd would to see your analysis on those) and i'm just a physics student😅. I can't imagine what it feels for you that you are a military analyst.
Anyway, I subscribed a little ago to your substack, and even though I don't always agree with all of what you say (not of the mikitar field of course), you gave me a lot to think about, so thanks!!
But, what shall I 'update' today? That the Russians overrun Vuhledar yesterday, and the GenStab-U was so clueless about the situation there, official Kyiv continued denying the fall of the town until this morning?
That's a tragicomedy for old nuns, no professional military.
Well, according to Israeli intelligence reports, there are already some developments and nuclear weapons in Iran. Although it is on a very, very modest scale. I can already imagine what will happen when Iran starts hitting Israel with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. Israel will launch a nuclear attack on Iran. Iran will spray a dirty bomb over Israel. Life gets better, life becomes more fun and much safer. Since the Western leaders have been running the planet all this time, I understand that they should all be thanked for all this mess they have created in the world. They traded with the crazy maniac Putin giving him resources for further aggression, they lifted sanctions on Iran giving him resources for aggression in Syria and Iraq. In fact, they helped the Iranians gain a foothold in Syria and Iraq by helping to kill Sunnis. Henry Kissinger generally helped to create a real monster for the USA in the form of China, which is now the main competitor, which is much stronger and more technologically advanced than the USSR ever was. Summarizing, I can only add that we have very fun times full of bright events ahead of us. Being a local pawn of global players, Ukraine is already feeling the consequences of this bright future.
Is there any at least generally reliable estimate on Iranian missile production capability? Latest claims on Russia state they can priduce 40-60 Iskander per month. Are Iranians better? Worse? On par with Russia? And how much of those missiles have the range to reach Israel, as opposed to nearer American, Saudi or other targets?
"...avoid provoking Netanyahu into nuking Iran..."
I don't think that's a real threat, though. Yep, there are some idiots kept at hand in Israel, but still, nukes (and chemical/biological weapons) are practically the only way to make any support and sympathy for Israel to instantly disappear. Oh, their existence would be preserved for sure, but not much more. They (those who are actually in charge) are just as aware of that as you suspect similar kind of awareness about their counterparts.
Also:
- I suspect that Israel is acting on a 'limited hunting permit' issued by (Arabic) countries who had enough of Iranian sockpuppets. If they are to accomplish anything they'll keep the limits.
- on the Iranian side, the whole Hamas thing is a great failure at the end: they were left completely alone, so cannot risk an all-out war either.
Indeed, a 'Soap Opera'. Very accurate. Everybody has their script.
Palestinians (and some more: bystanders and ... tools) - well nobody really cares, as it seems.
Excellent reporting, Tom, after western media either fell for the Israeli line or deliberately lied. The FT, as recently as an hour ago (lunchtime Wednesday) stated that only a handful of missiles had got through. They did admit, in passing, that the missiles were aimed at military and intelligence infrastructure.
Yes, that focus was mentioned here in Norway too. They did not mention any damage to civilian or military facilities. But they did mentioned that a lot of people in Jaffa had been attacked/ killed by a knife wielder. Hamas claimed responsibility. According to the Norwegian reporter there this was very scary for the Israelis, because that was the kind of attack difficult to defend against. Media is overall not very good at this job.
I think if Israel gonna nuke Iran then they gonna choose some military base middle of where in the desert ! However,after that , Putin would feel more comfortable nuking Ukraine !
There is information that in the middle of this month in Kazan at the summit meeting an agreement on "comprehensive cooperation" between Iran and Russia will be signed. I do not know how reliable this is, but it is certain that both sides at the current stage are primarily interested in the military component. In any case, the rapprochement between Iran and Russia will lead to an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The scenario of all this building up to Israeli nuclear blackmail ala 1973/the Samson Option sounds alarming, and just about right. Fortunately for Bibi there is virtually not a single politician in the West who enjoys true freedom of speech to openly discuss the ramifications of being tethered to this illegally nuclear-armed rogue state.
Thank you for the article. You were right with the smoking issue, but wrong regarding:
"even if dozens of videos are clearly showing IRGCASF’s missiles hitting facilities listed above. "
That was clearly falling debris on all of your pictures. Can't you eventually understand that the Russian Air defence is perfect and it is just the aftermath after that perfection causing troubles. One simply can't put everything under a solid roof or do you disagree?
Israel bans Antonio Guterres from entering to the country. The country which owes own appearance to the United Nations bans its chief. O tempora! O mores!
Very interesting. Thank you.
Anybody else think this strike was like mostly toothless? A lot of fizz and bang but only superficial damage it seems
Well, on one side - and for reasons explained yesterday: https://substack.com/home/post/p-149676030 - the IRGC does not want to 'go too far', and offer Netanyahu an excuse to launch a nuclear strike on Iran.
On the other, the Israelis (and supporters) are hell-or-bent on 'proving that Iranians can't hurt them'. Indeed, they are foremost interested in presenting all of this as 'acts of terror': at the times their own military is massacring hundreds of civilians every single day, it's inopportune (for them) to start providing evidence for Iranians targeting (almost) exclusively military targets.
Therefore, don't expect to get 'extensive sets of photographs confirming Iranian hits causing damage to military facilities in Israel'.
At least ISW provides links to the footage that shows what has been hit https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-1-2024
Cannot find that Ashkelon gas facility hit. Even any confirmation except from Iran state media.
Over 90% of all the videos released and showing hits inside Israel - were taken and released by Palestinians. So, one can't expect a lot more in this regards.
Other reason: IRGC wants to have something hidden to play the card "we can strike much harder". I.e. for them it's more important such to be such a threat than a real conflict.
By that logic we would not have any evidence of Ukraine successfully destroying Russian military objects. And yet we do, because private satellite imaging companies. So, I would assume that there is more demand for these pictures than for shovels at Stalin's funeral;)
If the Iranian strike got through and was actually able to hit what they were aiming at (air bases for example), it will be all over Twitter by today or tomorrow.
I also found it funny that Israel and Usa said that there was no damage, while I have seen at least a couple of videos in which it's clear dozens of missiles hit something. But this "propaganda" (saying that nothing was hit) is working, in the media no one is talking about the damage.
I'm also rilievied that Iran decided to strike mostly military bases and kinds, even though maybe you should have mentioned the terrorist attack with dozens of killer, clearly organized with iranian complicity.
Regarding the terrorist attack by two Palestinians on Tel Aviv: 'sorry but', I've reached my physical and mental limits already 'months ago' (if not longer), and therefore I'm focusing on military affairs.
For the same reasons I'm not reporting on the Israeli genocide on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, or the Russian genocide on Ukrainians in such cities regularly targeted like Kharkiv, I'm not reporting on Palestinian terror attacks either.
I could have added the Hezbollah strike on Sde Dov AB, from yesterday (results unknown, as usually), or the Hezbollah ambush of an IDF company in southern Lebanon, from this morning (causing 20+ casualties). Run out of space for that (there's a limit of what can be packed into a single Substack post), and that would be also 'slightly out of context' of the story presented here. I do intend to come back to both affairs in the coming days, though.
Yea, I can understand that.
I'm overwhelmed by all of these terrible wars (also Myanmar and Sudan, which I'd would to see your analysis on those) and i'm just a physics student😅. I can't imagine what it feels for you that you are a military analyst.
Anyway, I subscribed a little ago to your substack, and even though I don't always agree with all of what you say (not of the mikitar field of course), you gave me a lot to think about, so thanks!!
Please don't give up on analysis of the Russian terror inflicted on Ukraine, Tom!
Of course not.
But, what shall I 'update' today? That the Russians overrun Vuhledar yesterday, and the GenStab-U was so clueless about the situation there, official Kyiv continued denying the fall of the town until this morning?
That's a tragicomedy for old nuns, no professional military.
Well, according to Israeli intelligence reports, there are already some developments and nuclear weapons in Iran. Although it is on a very, very modest scale. I can already imagine what will happen when Iran starts hitting Israel with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. Israel will launch a nuclear attack on Iran. Iran will spray a dirty bomb over Israel. Life gets better, life becomes more fun and much safer. Since the Western leaders have been running the planet all this time, I understand that they should all be thanked for all this mess they have created in the world. They traded with the crazy maniac Putin giving him resources for further aggression, they lifted sanctions on Iran giving him resources for aggression in Syria and Iraq. In fact, they helped the Iranians gain a foothold in Syria and Iraq by helping to kill Sunnis. Henry Kissinger generally helped to create a real monster for the USA in the form of China, which is now the main competitor, which is much stronger and more technologically advanced than the USSR ever was. Summarizing, I can only add that we have very fun times full of bright events ahead of us. Being a local pawn of global players, Ukraine is already feeling the consequences of this bright future.
Great analysis ! Thank you !
Is there any at least generally reliable estimate on Iranian missile production capability? Latest claims on Russia state they can priduce 40-60 Iskander per month. Are Iranians better? Worse? On par with Russia? And how much of those missiles have the range to reach Israel, as opposed to nearer American, Saudi or other targets?
"...avoid provoking Netanyahu into nuking Iran..."
I don't think that's a real threat, though. Yep, there are some idiots kept at hand in Israel, but still, nukes (and chemical/biological weapons) are practically the only way to make any support and sympathy for Israel to instantly disappear. Oh, their existence would be preserved for sure, but not much more. They (those who are actually in charge) are just as aware of that as you suspect similar kind of awareness about their counterparts.
Also:
- I suspect that Israel is acting on a 'limited hunting permit' issued by (Arabic) countries who had enough of Iranian sockpuppets. If they are to accomplish anything they'll keep the limits.
- on the Iranian side, the whole Hamas thing is a great failure at the end: they were left completely alone, so cannot risk an all-out war either.
Indeed, a 'Soap Opera'. Very accurate. Everybody has their script.
Palestinians (and some more: bystanders and ... tools) - well nobody really cares, as it seems.
Nice Initial Summary - Thanks !
How large of a warhead would a MIRV-ed reentry vehicle carry?
Excellent reporting, Tom, after western media either fell for the Israeli line or deliberately lied. The FT, as recently as an hour ago (lunchtime Wednesday) stated that only a handful of missiles had got through. They did admit, in passing, that the missiles were aimed at military and intelligence infrastructure.
Yes, that focus was mentioned here in Norway too. They did not mention any damage to civilian or military facilities. But they did mentioned that a lot of people in Jaffa had been attacked/ killed by a knife wielder. Hamas claimed responsibility. According to the Norwegian reporter there this was very scary for the Israelis, because that was the kind of attack difficult to defend against. Media is overall not very good at this job.
I think if Israel gonna nuke Iran then they gonna choose some military base middle of where in the desert ! However,after that , Putin would feel more comfortable nuking Ukraine !
Hi Tom.
There is information that in the middle of this month in Kazan at the summit meeting an agreement on "comprehensive cooperation" between Iran and Russia will be signed. I do not know how reliable this is, but it is certain that both sides at the current stage are primarily interested in the military component. In any case, the rapprochement between Iran and Russia will lead to an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Tom, nice report! Thank you. You did not mention Israeli Patriots. Already out of service?
I think Tom or somebody reported before that the Patriots are in storage, but unavailable for Ukraine.
Like the Hawks, which are either in storage or unserviceable. Yeah right!
The scenario of all this building up to Israeli nuclear blackmail ala 1973/the Samson Option sounds alarming, and just about right. Fortunately for Bibi there is virtually not a single politician in the West who enjoys true freedom of speech to openly discuss the ramifications of being tethered to this illegally nuclear-armed rogue state.
Dear Tom,
Thank you for the article. You were right with the smoking issue, but wrong regarding:
"even if dozens of videos are clearly showing IRGCASF’s missiles hitting facilities listed above. "
That was clearly falling debris on all of your pictures. Can't you eventually understand that the Russian Air defence is perfect and it is just the aftermath after that perfection causing troubles. One simply can't put everything under a solid roof or do you disagree?
Israel bans Antonio Guterres from entering to the country. The country which owes own appearance to the United Nations bans its chief. O tempora! O mores!