Iranian-Israeli Soap Opera (Episode 517): First In, First Out

Hello everybody!

As should be well-known by now, the exceptionally popular telenovela better known as the ‘War on Hamas’, also ‘Iranian-Israeli Conflict’ and different other names, launched into its new season with Episode 516: Netanyahu’s assassination of Secretary General of Hezbollah, Nasrallah.

Late on 1 October (around 23.00hrs local time, which is around 22.00hrs in Israel), the IRGC Air-Space Force (IRGCASF) then aired the Episode 517: it’s retaliation for Nasrallah’s and the death of the Deputy Commander IRGC-QF (Major-General Abbas Nilforushan), the Operation True Promise-2 – In form of a massive missile strike on Israel.

Arguably, amid all the related boasting, hysteria, and a few seas of lies vented by all the involved parties, it’s a bit hard to follow what weapons were deployed, what was targeted, what was hit, or not. Thus, here an attempt at summarising what’s known so far.

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Terminology

IASF = Israeli Air-Space Force

IDF = Israeli Defence Force

IRGC = Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps

IRGCASF = Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Air-Space Force

MIRV = multiple re-entry vehicle (essentially a warhead that’s separating from a ballistic missile at its re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere; equipped that way, one missile can carry 2, 3, 4 or more MIRVs, each of which can target a different aiming point).

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As far as can be assessed from videos available by now, the IRGCASF has primarily deployed older of its ballistic missiles: indeed, something like ‘upgraded 2^nd generation’ of these. The biggest were liquid-fuelled types like Qadr and Emad. Both are, essentially, ‘upgraded Shahab-2s’: originally developed on basis of the Soviet-made R-17E (ASCC/NATO-designation ‘SS-1 Scud’), and manufactured back in the 1990s and 2000s, these were meanwhile upgraded to carry MIRVs and have an improved guidance system. Mind that the majority of such missiles are meanwhile nearing the end of their ‘shelf-life’: i.e. free along the principle ‘first in, first out’, the IRGCASF spent them, instead of something made more recently.

A still from a video showing a Qadr or Emad ballistic missile fired at Israel late on 1 October 2024.

The IRGCASF also said it has fired a number of more recent, solid-fuelled Khaibar-Shekan (a derivative of the Fattah, itself a derivative of the Chinese-designed Fatteh-110, which was the first ‘modern’ Iranian ballistic missile).

In best traditions of the IRGCASF’s ‘highest standards of quality control’, several missiles detonated on launch or crashed – still inside Iran – short after their launch. Reportedly, 5 people were killed and 12 wounded by them. Indeed, RUMINT has it: all of these casualties were caused by detonation of one of missiles at launch.

The missiles are known to have been launched from positions outside (between others):

-          Tabriz,

- Kermanshah,

- Shiraz, and

A still from a video taken from the cockpit of an Emirati airliner, showing the ascent of a missile salvo fired from outside Shiraz. As usually, the cooperation between the IRGC and the civilian authorities in Iran was so good, that either the former failed to warn the latter, or the latter failed to follow the order and close the airspace for civilian traffic.

- Esfahan.

Read: no news in this regards. All the IRGCASF bases in question are well-known (indeed: the one outside Kermanshah was the first Iranian ballistic missile base, originally constructed with Israeli advice, back in the 1970s).

It remains unclear exactly how many missiles were fired by the IRGCASF: some say 180, others 200, some claim as many as 400.

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The defences of Israel included (in order of their activation), PAC-2/3 SAMs operated by the Royal Jordanian Air Force, US-operated air defence systems deployed in Jordan, IASF-operated Arrow II and III ballistic-missile interceptors, and SM-6 Standard interceptors operated by guided missile destroyers USS Cole (DDG-67) and USS Bulkeley (DDG-84) of the US Navy (both underway off the coast of Israel).

(Reports about ‘Iron Dome’, widely circulated in the social media, are errant: Iron Dome is unsuitable for defence from this kind of ballistic missiles.)

Several of incoming IRGCASF-missiles were intercepted while still outside the Earth’s atmosphere. Such, ‘exoatmospheric’ intercepts are then resulting in such ‘Moon-shaped’ explosions like the one visible here:

…or here (the bluish ‘ball’ in the left upper corner of the still):

A number of booster stages from IRGCASF’s and debris from Jordanian, Israeli, and US interceptors, crashed inside Jordan: they seem to have caused no material damage, but wounded at least two persons.

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As for what was targeted… in a TV-appearance of this morning, the Chief-of-Staff Iranian Armed Forces (IRGC) Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, said that the targets were ‘three main air bases, HQ of Mossad, several radar sites, concentrations of IDF armoured vehicles around the Gaza Strip.

So far, have seen evidence ‘only’ for five of targets in question….which is bringing me to what is known to have been hit (where, at least according to official Israel and the USA: the answer to the latter question is simple: nothing - while one of targets obviously hit by the IRGCASF missiles was not even mentioned by Bagheri)…

From north towards south:

-          Mossad HQ & Unit 8200 HQ in Gillot (northern Tel Aviv). Israelis did not show either of two compounds, only an obvious miss about 500m away.

-          Tel Nov AB: home-base of the IASF’s F-15-fleet (Nos 106 and 133 Squadrons) CH-53/S-65-fleet (No. 118 Squadron) Aviation Maintenance Unit 22 (major overhaul facility): what exactly was hit there remains unknown right now.

-          Nevatim AB: home-base of the IASF’s F-35-fleet (Nos. 116, 117, and 140 Squadrons), C-130-fleet (No. 103 and No. 131 Squadrons), Boeing 707 tanker fleet (Nos. 120 Squadron), and the Israeli early fleet of G.550 reconnaissance and early warning aircraft (No. 122 Squadron). The IRGC claimed to have destroyed ‘20 F-35s’ there. What was really hit there remains unknown. However, services like Flightradar24, were showing clear indications of the Israelis scrambling the mass of their transports and reconnaissance aircraft, probably all the F-35s from this air base.

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Few (early) conclusions:

-          One must not, but better should (that’s your own decision, of course), pay attention at distinct difference between systematic and intentional demolishing of apartment buildings, UN facilities, schools, refugee camps etc. by the Israelis, and IRGC’s targeting of obvious military and intelligence targets.

-          That said, while multiple military facilities in Israel were the primary target, there are indications that several facilities related to energy-supply system were a secondary target.

-          Any kind of military-related reporting from Israel is subjected to the military censorship of the AMAN (Israeli Military Intelligence; should there be any doubts, this comes from somebody ‘neck-deep’ involved, as editor and illustrator, in book-projects like this, or this). Unsurprisingly, the Israeli and/or foreign sources in Israel are never releasing any kind of details about strikes on military facilities. If at all, either damage to civilian facilities (like that school in Gedera) is shown, or – like in April this year – minor damage to military facilities is shown for PR purposes (see: ‘dumb Iranians missed everything’).

-          At least as unsurprising is that the IASF and the USA are both claiming a perfectly successful defence – even if dozens of videos are clearly showing IRGCASF’s missiles hitting facilities listed above. Indeed, although a rough estimate is that up to 80% of IRGCASF’s missiles have penetrated the multi-layered air defences protecting Israel. Something like a ‘mix of official explanations and private assumptions’ is that ‘these were all left to pass through, because they were obviously about to miss’, and thus only hit ‘empty spaces’ – so also at Israeli air bases. Well, not sure if the IASF was delighted to let 18 out of 19 missiles (or MIRVs) in one wave, and then 27 out of 29 missiles (or MIRVs) in another wave all pass by and hit Nevatim AB, just for example.

-         Similar is valid for Tel Nov AB, hit by at least a dozen of missiles, at least one of which caused a ‘secondary’ (i.e. either hit something that then detonated, or caused a detonation of something).

-          Arguably, RUMINT has it that fires and conflagrations are incompatible with air bases and offshore oil/gas facilities. Of course, Israel is an exception from all the rules, so also this one. Therefore, it is on hand that this fire at Tel Nov AB,

-          and this explosion and the following fire on an offshore gas-facility off Ashkelon were either intentionally caused by the Israelis, or merely smoking accidents. By no means was anything of that kind a result of IRGCASF’s missile strikes.

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Ah yes, and I forgot something like ‘overall conclusion’: one way or the other, and for reasons explained yesterday, the IRGC is still far away from running an all-out strike on Israel. It’s still using primarily 10+ -years-old, less precise missiles, like Qadr and Emad. It’s still using them in limited numbers (i.e. at least in theory, it could strike with many more missiles and far more precisely). And, it is clearly focusing on targets of - indisputably - military nature, and targets large enough to hit with such old, less-precise missiles.

With other words: they remain sober enough to avoid provoking Netanyahu into nuking Iran, while ‘still retaliating’.

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That much about facts, beliefs and feelings. Hope is slim but, who can say: perhaps sometimes in the coming days, weeks, months or - most likely - years, it might become possible to separate the three.