1) the table of SAMs supplied by NATO is not complete. Poland gave its SA-3s and SA-8s, Czech supllied KUBs (SA-6), Finnish Buks are likely in Ukraine, recently a photo of Romanian SA-9 in Ukraine was revealed. Jordanian SA-8s also should not forgotten. And very important, …
1) the table of SAMs supplied by NATO is not complete. Poland gave its SA-3s and SA-8s, Czech supllied KUBs (SA-6), Finnish Buks are likely in Ukraine, recently a photo of Romanian SA-9 in Ukraine was revealed. Jordanian SA-8s also should not forgotten. And very important, often NATO supplies are revealed very late or not revraled at all. So, all in NATO supplies are enormous. However, they are enormous for the previous war, not war the "war of drones".
2) Not knowing, of course, the costs of RU missiles production (second table), I doubt the cost of Kinzhal (effectively, modified air-launched Iskander) are 7.5 higher than the land based Iskander.
Yup. You've listed a few examples. Add Polish Osa-AKMs (Jordanian Osas were apparently used foremost for cannibalisation and their missiles)... and then add SHORADs and MANPADs.
After all, these are scoring the mass of confirmed kills against the VKS. Especially Piorun, Mistral and ASRAAMs are proving 'deadly' for the Russians.
"After all, these are scoring the mass of confirmed kills against the VKS. "
Not scoring anything nowadays as both sides loses no aircraft anymore keeping them relatively far from frontline. Of course, could be some exceptions, like R-37s take down on average one UA Fulcrum per week, or RU forces loses a Frogfoot or a copter once per ten days for UA attacks. Still, the war in 2025 is principally the war of drones and corresponding attrition.
Regarding Manpads, my bet is that Piorun and Igla are the best scorers at UA side. The one who will write a book about MANPADs in this war, will be a bestseller.
Sure. No VKS Su-25 was shot down by by a Piorun on 8 Feb 25; none on 5 Feb 25, no two Mi-8s of AV-MF were shot down on 31 Dec 24 either... and the VKS remains soooooooo 'freeeeeee' to operate over the battlefield, that every time it wants to do so (like the last few days in south-western Kursk), it has to organise 'strike packages' including EW-helicopters, a demonstrative element, a SEAD-element, and the stikers protected by additional SEAD-aircraft...
...all of that because the RUSI said that the VKS is not taking part in this war, back in March 2022...? :rolleyes:
(And people then wonder why is this war reminding me so much of the one between Iran and Iraq, back in the 1980s....)
"Always '10% on mark, 90% off'....?" You are using again "proven" UA sources?))))
See no contradiction to what I wrote, actually you are confirming my words. Extremely rare losses for both sides in the air. And check your sources, only one Frogfoot was lost this year, on 8th of February to Igla.
It does not mean that belligerents do not use jets. The manner of airwar changed dramatically. UA Flankers and Fulcrums use "hit and run" tactics with US and French guided bombs, while Mirages and F-16s are hunting drones in Western Ukraine. Fencers are rarely seen, ether short of SCALPs/StormShadows or largely destroyed on ground by constant Russian strikes on airfields.
RU forces act in similar manner. SU-34s hitting UA positions with UMPKs, Mig-31s and SU-35s at free hunt, shooting periodically R-37s at airtargets. Su-25 used sporadically at most important places, of course, being on "secondary roles" comparing with drones and UMPKs.
Regarding Iran-Iraq, right, a lot of similarities. For example, instead of SCUDs drones are being used for the "War of the cities".
Oh yes, but sure: 'proven UA sources' have informed me about things they do not know.
For example: your 'extremely rare losses'.
Mate, absence of evidence is no evidence of absence.
The lack of videos showing more kills doesn't mean nothing is hit. It only means that the hit was not captured on the video.
Next example: remember the Il-22 almost shot down by two Ukrainian Buks, back in 2022? Nowadays it's 'in open storage' at Rostov AB/IAP. With all the 200+ holes from shrapnel still in their place. Right next to the Il-22 almost shot down by SA-5s in December 2023. Regardless how 'crucial' for the VKS (and FSB), neither was brought back to St Petersburg for repairs.
It's much worse in regards of specific types of combat aircraft. About 50% each of the Ka-52- and Su-25-fleets, and even more of the Su-34-leet is 'stored'. Grounded due to combat damage and the inability of the Russian industry at least to provide the spares necessary to repair them, not to talk about actually having the capacity to repair them.
Means: not only are there losses not captured on videos (so many: alone over Hostomel, back on 24 February 2022, the VKS lost at least 1 Ka-52 and 2 Mi-8s the losses of which became known few weeks ago), but lots of aircraft and helicopters are - regularly - 'hit', 'narrowly missed', etc.,.. call it whatever you like.... the crews nurse them back to base, land safely, and that's it: they are 'irrepairable'.
A very good work Tom, congrats.
Let me add some minor corrections.
1) the table of SAMs supplied by NATO is not complete. Poland gave its SA-3s and SA-8s, Czech supllied KUBs (SA-6), Finnish Buks are likely in Ukraine, recently a photo of Romanian SA-9 in Ukraine was revealed. Jordanian SA-8s also should not forgotten. And very important, often NATO supplies are revealed very late or not revraled at all. So, all in NATO supplies are enormous. However, they are enormous for the previous war, not war the "war of drones".
2) Not knowing, of course, the costs of RU missiles production (second table), I doubt the cost of Kinzhal (effectively, modified air-launched Iskander) are 7.5 higher than the land based Iskander.
Yup. You've listed a few examples. Add Polish Osa-AKMs (Jordanian Osas were apparently used foremost for cannibalisation and their missiles)... and then add SHORADs and MANPADs.
After all, these are scoring the mass of confirmed kills against the VKS. Especially Piorun, Mistral and ASRAAMs are proving 'deadly' for the Russians.
"After all, these are scoring the mass of confirmed kills against the VKS. "
Not scoring anything nowadays as both sides loses no aircraft anymore keeping them relatively far from frontline. Of course, could be some exceptions, like R-37s take down on average one UA Fulcrum per week, or RU forces loses a Frogfoot or a copter once per ten days for UA attacks. Still, the war in 2025 is principally the war of drones and corresponding attrition.
Regarding Manpads, my bet is that Piorun and Igla are the best scorers at UA side. The one who will write a book about MANPADs in this war, will be a bestseller.
Always '10% on mark, 90% off'....?
Sure. No VKS Su-25 was shot down by by a Piorun on 8 Feb 25; none on 5 Feb 25, no two Mi-8s of AV-MF were shot down on 31 Dec 24 either... and the VKS remains soooooooo 'freeeeeee' to operate over the battlefield, that every time it wants to do so (like the last few days in south-western Kursk), it has to organise 'strike packages' including EW-helicopters, a demonstrative element, a SEAD-element, and the stikers protected by additional SEAD-aircraft...
...all of that because the RUSI said that the VKS is not taking part in this war, back in March 2022...? :rolleyes:
(And people then wonder why is this war reminding me so much of the one between Iran and Iraq, back in the 1980s....)
"Always '10% on mark, 90% off'....?" You are using again "proven" UA sources?))))
See no contradiction to what I wrote, actually you are confirming my words. Extremely rare losses for both sides in the air. And check your sources, only one Frogfoot was lost this year, on 8th of February to Igla.
It does not mean that belligerents do not use jets. The manner of airwar changed dramatically. UA Flankers and Fulcrums use "hit and run" tactics with US and French guided bombs, while Mirages and F-16s are hunting drones in Western Ukraine. Fencers are rarely seen, ether short of SCALPs/StormShadows or largely destroyed on ground by constant Russian strikes on airfields.
RU forces act in similar manner. SU-34s hitting UA positions with UMPKs, Mig-31s and SU-35s at free hunt, shooting periodically R-37s at airtargets. Su-25 used sporadically at most important places, of course, being on "secondary roles" comparing with drones and UMPKs.
Regarding Iran-Iraq, right, a lot of similarities. For example, instead of SCUDs drones are being used for the "War of the cities".
Oh yes, but sure: 'proven UA sources' have informed me about things they do not know.
For example: your 'extremely rare losses'.
Mate, absence of evidence is no evidence of absence.
The lack of videos showing more kills doesn't mean nothing is hit. It only means that the hit was not captured on the video.
Next example: remember the Il-22 almost shot down by two Ukrainian Buks, back in 2022? Nowadays it's 'in open storage' at Rostov AB/IAP. With all the 200+ holes from shrapnel still in their place. Right next to the Il-22 almost shot down by SA-5s in December 2023. Regardless how 'crucial' for the VKS (and FSB), neither was brought back to St Petersburg for repairs.
It's much worse in regards of specific types of combat aircraft. About 50% each of the Ka-52- and Su-25-fleets, and even more of the Su-34-leet is 'stored'. Grounded due to combat damage and the inability of the Russian industry at least to provide the spares necessary to repair them, not to talk about actually having the capacity to repair them.
Means: not only are there losses not captured on videos (so many: alone over Hostomel, back on 24 February 2022, the VKS lost at least 1 Ka-52 and 2 Mi-8s the losses of which became known few weeks ago), but lots of aircraft and helicopters are - regularly - 'hit', 'narrowly missed', etc.,.. call it whatever you like.... the crews nurse them back to base, land safely, and that's it: they are 'irrepairable'.