I linked to this story on my DepletionCurve X account. Also created a graphic. If you'd ever like a cartoon for one of your stories let me know and I'll see what I can figure out. https://x.com/DepletionCurve/status/1920522203147252031
Indeed, a really interesting article. Looks like EW is effective only against FPVs and cheap short-legged recon drones.
I am also fond of predictions. Tom might remember that back in April 2022 I was predicting at Acig the swap of Iranian drones for SuperFlankers. Sadly, red tape in both countries is very slow, so Russia got Persian drones only in 2023, while SuperFlankers...well...you know it.
Anyway, my prediction (effectively, advice) for RU athourities is to buy/copy Iranian "358" missile asap. It will be a cheap and perfect weapon against UA long-range drones. If Tom's boasting about GenShtab people reading his blog is true, hope that they will think about it.
Russia already has a good track record of employing drones-interceptors at front line, see some fresh videos:
Iranians, being low on money after the war with Iraq, being under heavy sanctions and due to low oil prices in 90s, have been investing heavily in "cheap" weapons development for the last 30 years. They did not spend billions on expensive fancy toys but were steadily looking for some cheap mass means of war. And they succeeded. They armed Houties that managed to deter Gulf armies, broke the back of Daesh, made Israel go crazy about Persian ballictic missiles and, finally, helped Russia a lot with cheap war-of-attrition winning drones.
Such deals are classified and we can only guess by getting indirect facts via mass media. Iran got some Yak-130s, there are many articles and videos about that. Without SuperFlankers the purchase of Mittens is sensless. So, I hope that the deal for Su-35 will be completed. Who knows may be it's already started.
And of course it doesn't just affect Russia - the same technique can be used against literally every other country in the world (US, Japan, Nigeria, Brazil, etc.). Even the most primitive countries have cell towers, radio stations, etc. The inbound unit can be totally passive just vectoring off inbound signals tied to fixed locations - what an elegant solution.
"Today we see Moscow’s communication systems being limited. Why? To deny Ukraine Signal of Opportunity Navigation.' As I understand it, it is mobile data, not voice or SMS services that is being turned off. And this is to prevent live-streaming of any embarrassing incident.
Of course these are not limited to Ukrainian actions - the T-14s might break down again.
> Russia is absolutely able to annihilate all of Ukraine
Only with the use of nuclear weapons.
> Still, they follow what our host calls a certain military and political etiquette.
Russia does no such thing. They bomb civilians, hospitals, elementary schools, and playgrounds. They kidnap children, murder POWs, rape and murder civilians. They’re monsters.
The majority of dead during the invasion of Iraq were soldiers. It was during the occupation and insurgency that the civilian casualties came about - many not directly due to American forces.
The fact is that Russia targets civilians, which is a war crime. They also kidnap children.
For every defence, there is an offensive strategy. What happens if Ukrainien drones simply aim for the 'holes' in electromagnetic signals, where everything is blocked? From there on in, it can use visual or radar or heat seeking, etc. to find its targets.
And broadcasting the Russians definitely won't switch of tomorrow
I linked to this story on my DepletionCurve X account. Also created a graphic. If you'd ever like a cartoon for one of your stories let me know and I'll see what I can figure out. https://x.com/DepletionCurve/status/1920522203147252031
See you in Odesa. I’ll let you buy me a coffee.
😉
PS great article.
Benjamin, do you think they use AI to process all the signals and come up a with navigation strategy?
Most likely not AI - just an algorithm.
THanks. Great description. Very informative.
Indeed, a really interesting article. Looks like EW is effective only against FPVs and cheap short-legged recon drones.
I am also fond of predictions. Tom might remember that back in April 2022 I was predicting at Acig the swap of Iranian drones for SuperFlankers. Sadly, red tape in both countries is very slow, so Russia got Persian drones only in 2023, while SuperFlankers...well...you know it.
Anyway, my prediction (effectively, advice) for RU athourities is to buy/copy Iranian "358" missile asap. It will be a cheap and perfect weapon against UA long-range drones. If Tom's boasting about GenShtab people reading his blog is true, hope that they will think about it.
Russia already has a good track record of employing drones-interceptors at front line, see some fresh videos:
https://t.me/faceofwar/47515
Next logical step is "358" missile
That 358 as described by Tom looks game changing, my question is who really developed the thing, Iran, China, or others?
Iranians, being low on money after the war with Iraq, being under heavy sanctions and due to low oil prices in 90s, have been investing heavily in "cheap" weapons development for the last 30 years. They did not spend billions on expensive fancy toys but were steadily looking for some cheap mass means of war. And they succeeded. They armed Houties that managed to deter Gulf armies, broke the back of Daesh, made Israel go crazy about Persian ballictic missiles and, finally, helped Russia a lot with cheap war-of-attrition winning drones.
If you want to advice the Russian GenStab why not just send them your advice? Here they might be suspicious of your intentions.
What is the quid pro quo for all this Iranian stuff if Iran isn't getting its Su-35s?
It's starting to look very "now or never" for that deal.
Such deals are classified and we can only guess by getting indirect facts via mass media. Iran got some Yak-130s, there are many articles and videos about that. Without SuperFlankers the purchase of Mittens is sensless. So, I hope that the deal for Su-35 will be completed. Who knows may be it's already started.
Thanks Ben, this makes sense, and the Kremlin will never turn off the PRBS Machine.
And of course it doesn't just affect Russia - the same technique can be used against literally every other country in the world (US, Japan, Nigeria, Brazil, etc.). Even the most primitive countries have cell towers, radio stations, etc. The inbound unit can be totally passive just vectoring off inbound signals tied to fixed locations - what an elegant solution.
No NATO country will let Ukraine use their weapons and personnel to strike Russia tomorrow. So expect lots and lots of drones.
"Today we see Moscow’s communication systems being limited. Why? To deny Ukraine Signal of Opportunity Navigation.' As I understand it, it is mobile data, not voice or SMS services that is being turned off. And this is to prevent live-streaming of any embarrassing incident.
Of course these are not limited to Ukrainian actions - the T-14s might break down again.
The parade will be livestreamed by many news agencies, including westerners. Maybe try using your brain?
Thanks Benjamin, for this very interesting article I like how it is a step up for Ukraine
Thanks for this analysis. It would seem that SoOp could be used as a backup navigation system in case someone jammed GPS or some other turned it of.
RV Jones in WWII would have utterly loved this method of navigation.
I guess it works in Great Britain and US , too.
Could just use GPS in that case.
> Russia is absolutely able to annihilate all of Ukraine
Only with the use of nuclear weapons.
> Still, they follow what our host calls a certain military and political etiquette.
Russia does no such thing. They bomb civilians, hospitals, elementary schools, and playgrounds. They kidnap children, murder POWs, rape and murder civilians. They’re monsters.
Facts do not lie.
In RussoUkrainian war most of the dead are soldiers
In US led wars, in Gaza war, civilians die in 10:1 or 20:1 proportion
The majority of dead during the invasion of Iraq were soldiers. It was during the occupation and insurgency that the civilian casualties came about - many not directly due to American forces.
The fact is that Russia targets civilians, which is a war crime. They also kidnap children.
Paul,
The great enemy of clear language is insincerity.
In our time, political comments on Substack are frequently defence of indefensible.
it is a fact, publicly available, and not contested
from Vietnam, to Iraq, to Afghanistan,
Americans kill 10 to 20 civilian for every enemy soldier'combatant
this ratio is part of a military doctrine
it is how Americans choose targets
On children
Russian treat Russian speaking children as their own
It is difficult to say the same for Americans or Israelis
Could be used by Houthis, or anyone really, disguised as Houthi, to attack targets in Britain and US.
Israel. If it works it will be tested against Israel. And if there is a solution, it will come from Israel. And if there isn't ...
For every defence, there is an offensive strategy. What happens if Ukrainien drones simply aim for the 'holes' in electromagnetic signals, where everything is blocked? From there on in, it can use visual or radar or heat seeking, etc. to find its targets.