Not attractive… but available. Of course availability shouldn’t be underestimated. I still doubt it. First and foremost because I can’t see what guarantees they might offer. Shoot down some Israeli or Turkish planes? They will be as Meatloaf in that song: «but I won’t do that»… really hurt Iranian interest? No way. The Russians are only good for terrorizing local population. And the new government doesn’t need that. So my guess is that Russia will leave. Slowly and quietly. And the government will not interfere, because the costs are too high. But, well I am only offering my opinion. I am not an expert. So I guess we will have to wait and see.
I agree it's a wait and see. I'm not an expert either!
The Russians do offer something else - deterrence. The Turks for example limited some of their activities due to Russian presence. The Americans certainly did. I'm also certain it was at least an irritant to Israel!
Thanks Tom and Don, the establishment of a REAL Syrian truth and reconcillation committee plus guarantees of its independence from the regional influencers would be a best/win solution for the Syrians PLUS real accountability for the Assadists who contributed to the problem.
Thank you very much. I would very much love to read a comprehensive analysis on Lebanon. What chances are there that hezbollah's military arm reconstructs itself ? What chances are that sunnites and christians unite to battle them ? Is there ar chance that Hezbollah stays a political force without a military arm ? There will soon be elections in Lebanon. Gebran Bassil will he be somebody whose voice will be heard ?
Complex and difficult indeed. At short term it may seem that Iran is out, but actually only some of their sockpuppets were bashed up and beheaded and that's all. Their military and economical, political power barely got a dent in the recent events.
So at long run, they are inevitably still 'in', especially since they are kind of 'rightful' backers of some local ethnic groups.
.
For any new Syrian power it's vital to get something to balance them, otherwise they'll just end as Lebanon, or worst case: like the Palestinians.
.
Only Russia is 'out'.
.
Regarding the nature of the new Syrian power - there are several cases when 'terrorists' successfully converted to accepted or at least: tolerated governments. Taliban, Arafat... Hamas had the chance too, but they simply choose not to.
So if Syria can define itself properly in the coming weeks then nobody (on the west) will lift a finger, regardless of their current classification.
China ? That's the unintended consequence I wonder most about. Some say the U.S. dealt with Iraq to keep control over ME oil. To pre-empt how much the region could negotiate with others. Ultimately, whatever happens in the ME these days, China pays for. I forget the exact statistics but something like $200 billion is imported by China. Remember a few years ago, the Japanese ships that had some limpet mines attached to? I believe a message by someone to butt-out. Long-term, I believe Syria will force China to either picks sides (continues with Iran), or to project military power like the U.S. to (try to) keep everyone (KSA etc) in line.
(If it's of any use: I'm currently working on different projects involving at least four Davids and three Donalds... and, to my big shame I was always bad with memorising names: introduce me to somebody, and I can't recall the name about 10 seconds later.)
Without Russia acting as the enforcers of the Damascus, I am expecting the fracture of Syria in the next episode. It takes raw force to keep such a disparate state unified (like Libya under Gaddafi).
I would expect Syria to be carved in 3-4 large pieces: Kurdish segment in the northeast, Christian/Assadists in the seafront (maybe supported by Russia which is keen on keeping their bases), and two more segments in south (including Damascus) and southeast (the rest of the country).
I also suspect that HTS is keen to establish an islamist state, with women oppressed etc (I haven't seen any women in the videos from Syria, yet - neither during celebrations - that may be a sign of a bad future). I seriously doubt that HTS will be willing to share the power with the others.
Time will tell how the chips fall for Syria's future...fingers crossed that some form of peace can be obtained there. It doesn't seem like Zionists are helping much...unfortunately.
Thanks for the analysis.Does this help Ukraine? Well Russia certainly lost, but not in Ukraine. It is yet another nail in system Putins coffin, but that coffin does require a lot of nails. The material side of this is immaterial (couldn’t resist the pun, sorry) because whatever is withdrawn is insignificant to what Putin already has in Ukraine. But psychological the Tsar has lost one important battle. It will be remembered. Used when possible, which may or may not happen.
I think Russia might get to stay but Iran is out.
1. Israel has just destroyed what was left of Syria's navy, airforce and IADS and taken over additional Syrian territory.
2. The Turks and Kurds are continuing their offensives and looking at expanding their own influence and territory.
3. West views new government of Syria as terrorists and refuses to recognise it, let alone defend it.
4. Iran is still a threat.
So Syria is going to need someone to guarantee it's safety. The rich Sunni Arabs won't do this and neither will the Chinese.
That leaves the Russians and their delusions of being a super power.
And if the new government is desperate enough then the Russians seem like an attractive partner.
Not attractive… but available. Of course availability shouldn’t be underestimated. I still doubt it. First and foremost because I can’t see what guarantees they might offer. Shoot down some Israeli or Turkish planes? They will be as Meatloaf in that song: «but I won’t do that»… really hurt Iranian interest? No way. The Russians are only good for terrorizing local population. And the new government doesn’t need that. So my guess is that Russia will leave. Slowly and quietly. And the government will not interfere, because the costs are too high. But, well I am only offering my opinion. I am not an expert. So I guess we will have to wait and see.
I agree it's a wait and see. I'm not an expert either!
The Russians do offer something else - deterrence. The Turks for example limited some of their activities due to Russian presence. The Americans certainly did. I'm also certain it was at least an irritant to Israel!
Tom, I juat saw news that the Israelis are approaching Damascus. I'm starting to think this is actually a full regime change operation.
Thanks Tom and Don, the establishment of a REAL Syrian truth and reconcillation committee plus guarantees of its independence from the regional influencers would be a best/win solution for the Syrians PLUS real accountability for the Assadists who contributed to the problem.
Thank you very much. I would very much love to read a comprehensive analysis on Lebanon. What chances are there that hezbollah's military arm reconstructs itself ? What chances are that sunnites and christians unite to battle them ? Is there ar chance that Hezbollah stays a political force without a military arm ? There will soon be elections in Lebanon. Gebran Bassil will he be somebody whose voice will be heard ?
Complex and difficult indeed. At short term it may seem that Iran is out, but actually only some of their sockpuppets were bashed up and beheaded and that's all. Their military and economical, political power barely got a dent in the recent events.
So at long run, they are inevitably still 'in', especially since they are kind of 'rightful' backers of some local ethnic groups.
.
For any new Syrian power it's vital to get something to balance them, otherwise they'll just end as Lebanon, or worst case: like the Palestinians.
.
Only Russia is 'out'.
.
Regarding the nature of the new Syrian power - there are several cases when 'terrorists' successfully converted to accepted or at least: tolerated governments. Taliban, Arafat... Hamas had the chance too, but they simply choose not to.
So if Syria can define itself properly in the coming weeks then nobody (on the west) will lift a finger, regardless of their current classification.
@ "there are several cases when 'terrorists' successfully converted to accepted or at least: tolerated governments."
With very, very few exceptions, all governments descend from terrorists toppling the previous power.
Terrorists for some, partisans for others.
China ? That's the unintended consequence I wonder most about. Some say the U.S. dealt with Iraq to keep control over ME oil. To pre-empt how much the region could negotiate with others. Ultimately, whatever happens in the ME these days, China pays for. I forget the exact statistics but something like $200 billion is imported by China. Remember a few years ago, the Japanese ships that had some limpet mines attached to? I believe a message by someone to butt-out. Long-term, I believe Syria will force China to either picks sides (continues with Iran), or to project military power like the U.S. to (try to) keep everyone (KSA etc) in line.
Not sure who Donald Cook is. But Benjamin Cook appreciates everyone's comments! 🤣
Good work Ben! Especially with the cunning new identity 👍😎.
Sorry for mistake: have corrected it meanwhile.
(If it's of any use: I'm currently working on different projects involving at least four Davids and three Donalds... and, to my big shame I was always bad with memorising names: introduce me to somebody, and I can't recall the name about 10 seconds later.)
No worries!
Without Russia acting as the enforcers of the Damascus, I am expecting the fracture of Syria in the next episode. It takes raw force to keep such a disparate state unified (like Libya under Gaddafi).
I would expect Syria to be carved in 3-4 large pieces: Kurdish segment in the northeast, Christian/Assadists in the seafront (maybe supported by Russia which is keen on keeping their bases), and two more segments in south (including Damascus) and southeast (the rest of the country).
I also suspect that HTS is keen to establish an islamist state, with women oppressed etc (I haven't seen any women in the videos from Syria, yet - neither during celebrations - that may be a sign of a bad future). I seriously doubt that HTS will be willing to share the power with the others.
Excellent detail and analysis as always 👍
Thanks!
Time will tell how the chips fall for Syria's future...fingers crossed that some form of peace can be obtained there. It doesn't seem like Zionists are helping much...unfortunately.
Thanks for the analysis.Does this help Ukraine? Well Russia certainly lost, but not in Ukraine. It is yet another nail in system Putins coffin, but that coffin does require a lot of nails. The material side of this is immaterial (couldn’t resist the pun, sorry) because whatever is withdrawn is insignificant to what Putin already has in Ukraine. But psychological the Tsar has lost one important battle. It will be remembered. Used when possible, which may or may not happen.
Thanks Benjamin for this report very interesting