What Now For Syria - and does this help Ukraine?

by Benjamin Cook

The confirmation that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled to Russia marks a seismic shift in the Syrian conflict. Assad’s departure, paired with reports of a Russian “Saigon moment” as it scrambles to withdraw from Syria, raises urgent questions about the country’s future. After more than a decade of devastating war, what lies ahead for Syria? Are there any knock-on effects for Ukraine?

The Fallout of Assad’s Exit

Syria’s civil war has been defined by Assad’s iron grip on power, supported heavily by Iran’s and Russia’s military interventions. His escape to Russia is a stark acknowledgment of the regime’s collapse and signals the end of an era. However, it also leaves a dangerous power vacuum in a country already fractured along ethnic, religious, and political lines. Without Assad, the competing factions in Syria—the big majority of Sunni Arabs, and minorities of Alawites, Kurds, Christians, and others—face a precarious and uncertain transition.

Factions and Sects: Cooperation or Chaos?

Early reports suggest tentative cooperation among some groups, possibly out of exhaustion after years of conflict. However, the deep-seated sectarian divides that have plagued Syria are unlikely to vanish overnight. The Sunni majority, long oppressed - both under the French ‘mandate’ and then under Assad’s Alawite-dominated regime - may push for a larger role in governance, while Shia-aligned groups, backed by Iran, will resist losing their influence. Meanwhile, the PKK/PYD/YPG - which is from Turkey, generally presented as ‘the Kurds’ in our media, and which carved out de facto autonomy in northeastern Syria during the war - will likely seek to solidify their gains, much to the displeasure of Turkey.

The Christian minority, historically significant but increasingly diminished due to emigration and war, faces a challenging future. Will they find a voice in a new Syria, or will they be sidelined as in Lebanon and Egypt? Their fate depends heavily on whether the emerging power structure is inclusive or dominated by sectarian agendas.

The Role of External Powers

Syria’s fate will not be determined solely by its people. Regional and global powers are already maneuvering to shape the country’s future.

● Russia: With Assad in Moscow and its military presence in Syria under pressure, Russia’s influence is waning. However, Moscow may attempt to maintain a foothold through proxies or negotiated deals.

● Turkey: Ankara remains deeply concerned about Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, fearing it could inspire separatist movements within its own borders. Turkey is likely to increase its military and political involvement.

● Iran: A staunch ally of Assad, the ‘old guard’ of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards has invested massively (over US$ 200 billion since 2011) in saving the Assad regime and growing influence in Syria as part of its broader strategy to secure the ‘Fertille Crescent’ and convert it into a ‘Shi’a crescent’. Due to Israel’s systemic assassination of IRGC’s commanders in Lebanon and Syria, there is now a ‘new guard’ in Tehran: for the time being, this has decided to abandon Assad and entirely focus on rebuilding Hezbollah in Lebanon. This does not mean Tehran has abandoned all of its designs for Syria, though.

● Israel: at least since 2012, Israel has targeted Iranian-linked forces in Syria to prevent Tehran from establishing a stronghold near its borders. At the same time, it left the Assad’s regime at its own, regardless how many Syrians this has mass-murdered - so also by deploying chemical weapons over 300 times. The collapse of Assad’s regime could escalate these tensions.

● The United States: With limited appetite for direct intervention, the U.S. may focus on supporting allies and preventing extremist groups from filling the power vacuum.

● China..?

Accountability and Justice

Assad’s escape does not absolve him of responsibility for the atrocities committed during his rule. His regime, supported by Russian airstrikes, has been linked to war crimes, including chemical weapons attacks and the targeting of civilians. Will there be a push for international accountability, or will Assad’s exile in Russia allow him to evade justice? The establishment of a truth and reconciliation commission could provide a path to healing for those that remain in Syria, but it would require unprecedented cooperation among the nation’s factions.

The Road Ahead

Unless its revolution remains as united as it presently is, Syria’s future will likely be turbulent, shaped by both internal power struggles and external interventions. The departure of Assad offers a chance to rebuild, but history suggests that foreign meddling is likely to re-ignite sectarian rivalries.

There are glimmers of hope. If Syria’s diverse communities can prioritize unity over division and external powers exercise restraint, the country could move toward stability. Yet this is a best-case scenario in a region where such outcomes are rare.

For now, the question remains: can Syria transcend its history of conflict and foreign domination to build a more peaceful and inclusive future? What leaders will emerge? Will they crave power and retribution or peace?

And for Ukraine…

Assad’s exile underscores a broader narrative of Russian failure (and Iranian). The inability to stabilize Syria after years of military intervention and ‘reforms’ of its armed forces, mirrors its challenges in Ukraine. This may embolden Kyiv and its Western allies, reinforcing the perception that Russia is not an unbeatable adversary. It could also erode Moscow’s credibility among other authoritarian regimes that depend on its backing. Moscow’s Chechen leaders are probably a little nervous this week.

Additionally, a diminished Russian presence in Syria may disrupt the "Axis of Resistance" that includes Iran and Hezbollah, which - at least in Syria - have received critical support through Russian logistics and air power. Ukraine could benefit indirectly if this weakens Tehran's ability to supply Russia with weapons like drones.

However, and I fear most likely, Assad’s exile to Russia may also present risks. Moscow might seek to consolidate its remaining influence elsewhere, doubling down on Ukraine to compensate for its losses. This could result in increased pressure on Ukraine's frontlines or escalatory moves designed to restore Russia’s international standing.

In sum, Assad’s exile highlights Russia’s overreach and vulnerabilities, creating potential opportunities for Ukraine, while also warranting caution against celebrating Russia’s embarrassing losses.

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Sources:

● "Assad Flees to Russia as Regime Collapses," The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/12/07/assad-flees-russia

● "Russia's Role in the Syrian Conflict," BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35806229

● "Turkey and the Kurds: A History of Tension," Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/05/turkey-syria-kurds

● "Iran’s Strategy in Syria," Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/irans-influence-in-syria

● "The Future of Christians in the Middle East," The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/11/christians-middle-east-syria-lebanon-egypt/