Hello everybody! Before I ‘return’ to my ‘usual updates’, here a third and final part of this feature, explaining certain details about ongoing Ukrainian operations on basis of few very specific examples. *** ‘About a week ago’, videos began appearing
The World Bank’s initial forecast of the impact of sanctions announced in March 2022 was that by the end of 2022, Russia’s GDP would be 11% lower, where did you find 40%.?
All the estimates of current GDP are based on number supplied by Russia, what little real information seeps out on trade statistics indicates the official statistics are optimistic but it is all speculative.
Reminds me of the WWII and all the 'modern-day fans' of the Waffen-SS - which, in reality, and while frequently being 'better equipped' than Wehrmacht, and thus catching all the attention, was mostly just screwing up and wasting resources at colossal scale.
But hey: Königstiger of some Waffen-SS Abteilung is such a fascinating tank.... :rolleyes:
Jul 20, 2023·edited Jul 20, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Thank you so very much, Tom. And congratulations to the formidable work of the 28th brigade. And thank you for showing how they fight and hold. I hope they will be compensated for their efforts. - If anybody has contact to this brigade on fb, please tell me. I would gladly help them.
My conclusion is - wait for two weeks (or better for four) and see what would change. Daily reports are inaccurate and misleading (often intentionally).
Thanks, Tom! Really good explanation of what goes on at the local level. These lads seem motivated.
Reminds me very much of the battles in the hedgerows after the Normandy landings, which was also a drawn out, confused affair. And at some point, the allies did break out.
This analysis could be partially confirmed by the recent attrition ratios observed in Oryx losses, when the offensive started they were for a couple of weeks close to 1:1 leaning unfavourable to ZSU, in the latest updates they have shifted to 3:1 favouring ZSU.
Of course, visually confirmed losses has its own biases and skewedness, but it's too substantial of a change in loss ratios to go unnoticed, and when compared to the data from the war mappers, it seems as if ZSU has mostly shifted its priorities from capturing territory to destroy Russian forces, at least for the last 2-3 weeks.
My friend works in IT company. 22 of February 2022 their top manager (C level member of the board), a man in his late 40th went to "Azov Kyiv territorial defence".
First weeks they defended Kyiv ( until russians run away in "gesture of goodwill" in march 2022 ).
Later, he was in Azov training center.
From October-November he is in Bahmut as part of the 3rd Brigade ( Azov Kyiv was renamed to 3rd Assault ).
From time to time he visits office with his "brother in arms" in full camo and take presentations.
Also he posts videos in a corporate telegram channel. Including his light wound after a strike on Kramatorsk or something.
Moral of the story.
I think 3rd brigade is so sucessful partially because they have a base people from Azov with 9 years of experience fighting russians and rest are guys from Kyiv ( often with high education, and high motivation, because they are volonteers as well as taste of success and russian blood on their teeth, after they partisipated in russian defeat next to Kyiv )
What a great series final! Thanks Tom for all the info; the comparison between units are really feed for thought about how we see the frontline routine, and how really it is.
Sometimes, potato coach bellies don’t let see the true situation (that’s for you, experten! You know who you are XD )
By best will: don't know even one that would be 'accurate'. At least 'not on time'.
All are 48-72 hours 'behind' (latest developments). Obviously, much of this is depending on how much time the maker can dedicate to updating them. But, it also depends on the stand of their knowledge, and since most of map-makers depend on photos and videos, FIRMS-data and (blurry) commercial sat photos.... it's kind of hopeless.
Sadly, there is more then enough evidence that 3rd is also tacking serious loses Telegram: Contact @prizrak14btro
I have read about this tactic last year and it was used from LNR forces like Prizrak or Kaskad or whatever they are called now. This tactic could not take Marinka or Andreevka for 1 year and it`s called “meat” assaults. Why is it not working, first you are using expensive large caliber artillery to suppress enemy infantry, destroy their heavy equipment and artillery support. Often, they use some armor, 1 tank for support and fast armored vehicles to bring the infantry close. The infantry has drones in the air to monitor the enemy soldiers, so they can easily overwhelm them. It works often, because both sides used untrained and horrible equipped infantry to hold the first lines. Those soldiers don`t have communication and the knowledge how to deploy and use such, so they can`t even call artillery support or because of the lack of system that synchronize the artillery. They are not protected by mind field, have very little or zero heavy equipment. They also are not trained to fast retreat in such situations, but there are examples where trained soldiers just run and after that the artillery clear the attackers from the trenches they took. The problem is you are not destroying what is important, losing 40 soldiers is nothing in such war, they could be trained for 1 mouth. You are not destroying the important things, enemy air force, AAS systems, artillery, drone operators, EW units or they are not taking loses enough to make difference and most importantly you are not disrupting enemy suppliers and reinforcements.
There are a lot of reason why this don`t work in the long run, first you want to take and hold the position of the enemy, because often they are on high grounds and that give you advantage, but the opponent has those positions marked and, in most cases, they have enough shells to not allow the attackers to equip new positions. The second reason is, the opponent is not complete 90-year AI, who do something again and again without change, you could do this 1-2 times and on the third they will be prepared, they could send some more trained soldiers, they could have artillery support ready and on good position to stop the attack. Then simply the attackers armor gets blow up together with the infantry, the tanks don`t seem to be able to support effective assault. They could pull out and use drones + mortars crew to simple shred the attackers that is going to the trenches.
I`m 100% sure that Gerasimov is happy that UA is losing trained and motivated solders, just to kill cheap mobiks, when RFi is trying to use that time to train in the rear serious offensive force. The grind is pointless for UA and is just downhill spiral that lead only to defeat.
I liked this comment, just because this is reasonable argument, no matter on which degree that apply on ukrainians, it is always looming, and worth to be aware and do not be dragged into this kind af warfare. Beside that. i am rather sure poorly trained ukrainian units are falling into it often times.
So where are the results of the 'spring offensive'. It is now Mid late july? No breakthru. No Russian collapse. Just enormous amounts of NATO kit in rubble and you show a few brewed up T-90s. What is actually going on? We all understand who the bad guy is. Stop blathering about keystone cops and report some facts.
The World Bank’s initial forecast of the impact of sanctions announced in March 2022 was that by the end of 2022, Russia’s GDP would be 11% lower, where did you find 40%.?
All the estimates of current GDP are based on number supplied by Russia, what little real information seeps out on trade statistics indicates the official statistics are optimistic but it is all speculative.
Here is the answer to your IMF question
https://fortune.com/2023/03/06/imf-naively-parroted-putin-fake-statisticsand-botched-economic-forecast-russia-ukraine/
Oh dear.
I lied again, I am so sorry.
LOL!
LOL!
How very aggressive.
I lied?
I somehow claimed 40%?
I recommend you drink a nice cup of tea and take some rest.
Reminds me of the WWII and all the 'modern-day fans' of the Waffen-SS - which, in reality, and while frequently being 'better equipped' than Wehrmacht, and thus catching all the attention, was mostly just screwing up and wasting resources at colossal scale.
But hey: Königstiger of some Waffen-SS Abteilung is such a fascinating tank.... :rolleyes:
Now I understand it more and more. I really appreciate your articles Tom. Thanks
Thank you so very much, Tom. And congratulations to the formidable work of the 28th brigade. And thank you for showing how they fight and hold. I hope they will be compensated for their efforts. - If anybody has contact to this brigade on fb, please tell me. I would gladly help them.
Sadly, no contact to anybody within the 28th, but I'm sure they would appreciate any help coming their way.
Thank you for answering me. I will continue to look for them. If ever you get info, please contact me. Thank you.
Here is their link on facebook: "/28mechanizedbrigade"
They have a phone and email there. Write or call and ask
Telegram: https://t.me/ombr_28
Thank you so much.
Thank you, Tom.
My conclusion is - wait for two weeks (or better for four) and see what would change. Daily reports are inaccurate and misleading (often intentionally).
Thanks, Tom! Really good explanation of what goes on at the local level. These lads seem motivated.
Reminds me very much of the battles in the hedgerows after the Normandy landings, which was also a drawn out, confused affair. And at some point, the allies did break out.
We're not in Iraq anymore, Toto...
This analysis could be partially confirmed by the recent attrition ratios observed in Oryx losses, when the offensive started they were for a couple of weeks close to 1:1 leaning unfavourable to ZSU, in the latest updates they have shifted to 3:1 favouring ZSU.
Of course, visually confirmed losses has its own biases and skewedness, but it's too substantial of a change in loss ratios to go unnoticed, and when compared to the data from the war mappers, it seems as if ZSU has mostly shifted its priorities from capturing territory to destroy Russian forces, at least for the last 2-3 weeks.
Thanks for the analysis, and also the story of the28th!
My friend works in IT company. 22 of February 2022 their top manager (C level member of the board), a man in his late 40th went to "Azov Kyiv territorial defence".
First weeks they defended Kyiv ( until russians run away in "gesture of goodwill" in march 2022 ).
Later, he was in Azov training center.
From October-November he is in Bahmut as part of the 3rd Brigade ( Azov Kyiv was renamed to 3rd Assault ).
From time to time he visits office with his "brother in arms" in full camo and take presentations.
Also he posts videos in a corporate telegram channel. Including his light wound after a strike on Kramatorsk or something.
Moral of the story.
I think 3rd brigade is so sucessful partially because they have a base people from Azov with 9 years of experience fighting russians and rest are guys from Kyiv ( often with high education, and high motivation, because they are volonteers as well as taste of success and russian blood on their teeth, after they partisipated in russian defeat next to Kyiv )
After 1 year in army he lost his office belly and looks much sharper now.
Thank you for this. Learned alot
With you and Mike Ryan, its nice to get the truth.
What a great series final! Thanks Tom for all the info; the comparison between units are really feed for thought about how we see the frontline routine, and how really it is.
Sometimes, potato coach bellies don’t let see the true situation (that’s for you, experten! You know who you are XD )
How you manage to research and report on this and write in an informative and intelligent manner is incredible. Well done, again.
Hey Tom. What you consider to be the most accurate battle map site? As good as it can be...
We will learn about full details in the years after the war...
By best will: don't know even one that would be 'accurate'. At least 'not on time'.
All are 48-72 hours 'behind' (latest developments). Obviously, much of this is depending on how much time the maker can dedicate to updating them. But, it also depends on the stand of their knowledge, and since most of map-makers depend on photos and videos, FIRMS-data and (blurry) commercial sat photos.... it's kind of hopeless.
Sadly, there is more then enough evidence that 3rd is also tacking serious loses Telegram: Contact @prizrak14btro
I have read about this tactic last year and it was used from LNR forces like Prizrak or Kaskad or whatever they are called now. This tactic could not take Marinka or Andreevka for 1 year and it`s called “meat” assaults. Why is it not working, first you are using expensive large caliber artillery to suppress enemy infantry, destroy their heavy equipment and artillery support. Often, they use some armor, 1 tank for support and fast armored vehicles to bring the infantry close. The infantry has drones in the air to monitor the enemy soldiers, so they can easily overwhelm them. It works often, because both sides used untrained and horrible equipped infantry to hold the first lines. Those soldiers don`t have communication and the knowledge how to deploy and use such, so they can`t even call artillery support or because of the lack of system that synchronize the artillery. They are not protected by mind field, have very little or zero heavy equipment. They also are not trained to fast retreat in such situations, but there are examples where trained soldiers just run and after that the artillery clear the attackers from the trenches they took. The problem is you are not destroying what is important, losing 40 soldiers is nothing in such war, they could be trained for 1 mouth. You are not destroying the important things, enemy air force, AAS systems, artillery, drone operators, EW units or they are not taking loses enough to make difference and most importantly you are not disrupting enemy suppliers and reinforcements.
There are a lot of reason why this don`t work in the long run, first you want to take and hold the position of the enemy, because often they are on high grounds and that give you advantage, but the opponent has those positions marked and, in most cases, they have enough shells to not allow the attackers to equip new positions. The second reason is, the opponent is not complete 90-year AI, who do something again and again without change, you could do this 1-2 times and on the third they will be prepared, they could send some more trained soldiers, they could have artillery support ready and on good position to stop the attack. Then simply the attackers armor gets blow up together with the infantry, the tanks don`t seem to be able to support effective assault. They could pull out and use drones + mortars crew to simple shred the attackers that is going to the trenches.
I`m 100% sure that Gerasimov is happy that UA is losing trained and motivated solders, just to kill cheap mobiks, when RFi is trying to use that time to train in the rear serious offensive force. The grind is pointless for UA and is just downhill spiral that lead only to defeat.
shlemazl, you're here again with that "serious offensive force behind Urals" shtik?
BS, you think UA is the only one who can train reserves ?
....go back to reading what I post. Would explain just how badly wrong you are with your ideas about 'meat attacks'.
I liked this comment, just because this is reasonable argument, no matter on which degree that apply on ukrainians, it is always looming, and worth to be aware and do not be dragged into this kind af warfare. Beside that. i am rather sure poorly trained ukrainian units are falling into it often times.
So where are the results of the 'spring offensive'. It is now Mid late july? No breakthru. No Russian collapse. Just enormous amounts of NATO kit in rubble and you show a few brewed up T-90s. What is actually going on? We all understand who the bad guy is. Stop blathering about keystone cops and report some facts.
Since you're one of jerks not reading what I post, what are you doing here, and why do you post this kind of rubbish on my blog?