Many thanks Tom , at least we can now reduce all claims of ZSU on destroyed equipment and personal by 3.5. Their last PR briefing is indicating destroyed 357 aircrafts and 326 helicopters. Nice work indeed
It's so easy to doubt and subsequently rant about some numbers or stats, if they do not correspond to one's world view, but much harder to collect it and verify. I know it doesn't help much, but thank you, Tom (neighbour from our northern country) for yours and your colleague's thorough work. Much much appreciated.
I admire such appeoach to research. Belive is a constrain created by humans to comfort and pumper themself. For the real and brutal world we have science, isn't it?
Dear Tom, just to clarify, are you saying that there is unlikely more then this count?
Now a few more questions.
I understand first weeks of war, where a huge spike of air losses is located. Chaos, lack of coordination, possible double claims, or unverified claims.
But what about now? Like this story about 110 ombr recently shooting down older types of SUs? And then the same during battle for Avdiivka few months ago? Is it fictional or exaggerated, or what it is? Is there something in aerial warfare like destroyed and damaged? Is it an often case? Thanks!
Yes. Right now, I have no reasons to 'expect' there to be much more.
Re. 'intensity of air warfare during early days and now'...
I do know that the mass of Western commentators - and even some of Ukrainian 'monitors' - say that the air war during the first week or war (or so) was much more intensive than it is now.
I do not think so. My assessment is that the air war is at last as intensive as it was back then: perhaps even more intensive.
Since I'm currently working on this one (https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/war-in-ukraine-volume-7-air-war-2023.php), and that book is going to cover the story of the First Battle of Izyum and the Russian attempt to reach Sloviansk, in March-April-May-June 2022... well, not my fault if the mass of people seems to have completely missed that battle, and thus do not know how many of Russian aircraft and helicopters were shot down during it: indeed, they thus say that the air war slowed down by a wide margin through the period in question... although, gauging by the Russian losses alone - it simply did not slow down.
The difference is that both sides are nowadays operating under fundamentally different conditions. Early during the war, and especially on the Ukrainian side, there was lots of 'fatalism'. Kind of: OK, they'll take us down, anyway, so lets take as many of them with me as I go down... Foremost, both air forces were flying direct air strikes: attacks in which they were directly aiming their (dumb) weaponry - free-fall bombs and unguided rockets - at enemy positions.
This proved excessively costly, for both sides. It was really so that dozens of aircraft and helicopters were shot down.
The survivors on both sides have then drawn their own conclusions: foremost, it turned out that it's pointless to fly such attacks if they get shot down before they can even release their weaponry. Therefore, both have changed their tactics to 'indirect' attacks: like spray & pray of unguided rockets and, more recently, the 'tossing' of guided bombs from 'stand-off' ranges.
The amount of explosives dropped on the enemy thus actually increased over the time, the precision too - even if the total number of combat sorties might have dropped by a margin (though if so, then primarily because of the lower total number of aircraft and helicopters available, because of losses and because of the need to maintain and overhaul the available machines due to their earlier intensive use).
By now 357 Russian aircraft and 367 helicopters have been destroyed since 24 Feb, and this information is official. So please stop inventing random numbers trying to pose as an expert with some secret knowledge, as you don't have it.
This information is official? What does that mean? If there is one thing we know about official information in war is that it cannot be tursted without verification. Goverments, for a lot of reasons Lie, or are misinformed or erronous in other ways. Regarding expertise, well he explained his. You can accept it or not. But he did outline his methods. Very clearly, You can follow them if you have the time and energy. Or not. But it wasnt secret. While your only claim to reject them are governmental figurens? Not good enough.
Amazing work by you and all the others that put the hours into researching and putting together all the pieces of information Tom. Admittedly I'm one of the 99.9% that wouldnt be able to do it as I wouldn't even know where to start.
It's all very much appreciated and gives a greater understanding of the situation given the main stream media here in England barely mentions Ukraine anymore.
👌
We got the point Tom, thank you 👍
Many thanks Tom , at least we can now reduce all claims of ZSU on destroyed equipment and personal by 3.5. Their last PR briefing is indicating destroyed 357 aircrafts and 326 helicopters. Nice work indeed
Tom, If you were born in the US, you would be from Missouri "The SHOW-ME" state!!
Your explanation was top notch, especially how you describe how you deal with preventing inaccuracies! KEEP IT UP!
It's so easy to doubt and subsequently rant about some numbers or stats, if they do not correspond to one's world view, but much harder to collect it and verify. I know it doesn't help much, but thank you, Tom (neighbour from our northern country) for yours and your colleague's thorough work. Much much appreciated.
I admire such appeoach to research. Belive is a constrain created by humans to comfort and pumper themself. For the real and brutal world we have science, isn't it?
Dear Tom, just to clarify, are you saying that there is unlikely more then this count?
Now a few more questions.
I understand first weeks of war, where a huge spike of air losses is located. Chaos, lack of coordination, possible double claims, or unverified claims.
But what about now? Like this story about 110 ombr recently shooting down older types of SUs? And then the same during battle for Avdiivka few months ago? Is it fictional or exaggerated, or what it is? Is there something in aerial warfare like destroyed and damaged? Is it an often case? Thanks!
Yes. Right now, I have no reasons to 'expect' there to be much more.
Re. 'intensity of air warfare during early days and now'...
I do know that the mass of Western commentators - and even some of Ukrainian 'monitors' - say that the air war during the first week or war (or so) was much more intensive than it is now.
I do not think so. My assessment is that the air war is at last as intensive as it was back then: perhaps even more intensive.
Since I'm currently working on this one (https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/war-in-ukraine-volume-7-air-war-2023.php), and that book is going to cover the story of the First Battle of Izyum and the Russian attempt to reach Sloviansk, in March-April-May-June 2022... well, not my fault if the mass of people seems to have completely missed that battle, and thus do not know how many of Russian aircraft and helicopters were shot down during it: indeed, they thus say that the air war slowed down by a wide margin through the period in question... although, gauging by the Russian losses alone - it simply did not slow down.
The difference is that both sides are nowadays operating under fundamentally different conditions. Early during the war, and especially on the Ukrainian side, there was lots of 'fatalism'. Kind of: OK, they'll take us down, anyway, so lets take as many of them with me as I go down... Foremost, both air forces were flying direct air strikes: attacks in which they were directly aiming their (dumb) weaponry - free-fall bombs and unguided rockets - at enemy positions.
This proved excessively costly, for both sides. It was really so that dozens of aircraft and helicopters were shot down.
The survivors on both sides have then drawn their own conclusions: foremost, it turned out that it's pointless to fly such attacks if they get shot down before they can even release their weaponry. Therefore, both have changed their tactics to 'indirect' attacks: like spray & pray of unguided rockets and, more recently, the 'tossing' of guided bombs from 'stand-off' ranges.
The amount of explosives dropped on the enemy thus actually increased over the time, the precision too - even if the total number of combat sorties might have dropped by a margin (though if so, then primarily because of the lower total number of aircraft and helicopters available, because of losses and because of the need to maintain and overhaul the available machines due to their earlier intensive use).
Many thanks for your help and for valuable information you are constantly providing.
Thanks for info.
Do you have an idea how many active planes/helicopter were destroyed on airports?
in 2022 Ru had to fly 300 sorties per day, later it was decresead to 100. What is the biggest cause? destroyed or overhauled planes?
This is very interesting and informative Tom Thanks
By now 357 Russian aircraft and 367 helicopters have been destroyed since 24 Feb, and this information is official. So please stop inventing random numbers trying to pose as an expert with some secret knowledge, as you don't have it.
This information is official? What does that mean? If there is one thing we know about official information in war is that it cannot be tursted without verification. Goverments, for a lot of reasons Lie, or are misinformed or erronous in other ways. Regarding expertise, well he explained his. You can accept it or not. But he did outline his methods. Very clearly, You can follow them if you have the time and energy. Or not. But it wasnt secret. While your only claim to reject them are governmental figurens? Not good enough.
Tom, I can't find VF-MA used anywhere in Russian.
They call their Naval Aviation "MA VMF" meaning Naval Aviation of the Naval Force
Thank you for this. Seems very reliable to me. And intersting description too.
Amazing work by you and all the others that put the hours into researching and putting together all the pieces of information Tom. Admittedly I'm one of the 99.9% that wouldnt be able to do it as I wouldn't even know where to start.
It's all very much appreciated and gives a greater understanding of the situation given the main stream media here in England barely mentions Ukraine anymore.