Ukraine War, 9 March 2024: Scratch one Patriot(?)
Hello everybody!
‘Minutes’ ago, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have released a video showing what they first claimed was a hit on a column of vehicles including a number of vehicles related to the S-300 surface-to-air missile system (would be ‘SA-10 Grumble’, in ASCC/NATO nomenclature).
Subsequently, this was ‘upgraded’ to ‘Patriot SAM-system’.
The video can be found, for example, here: https://t.me/voenacher/62210
Now, what can be seen on the video is a column of four trucks that appear to be of the same type, together with a number of smaller, miscelaneous vehicles:
It is possible that at least the two or three trucks in the centre were carrying launchers.
Moments later, the entire column was obliterated by a single hit. The weapon reportedly scoring this hit was, according to the Russians, an Iskander (quasi-)ballistic missile (others claim ‘BM-30 Smerch’ multiple rocket launcher calibre 300mm):
An ‘after-action’ video appeared meanwhile, too, and here are few stills from it:
Now, I’m not 100% sure what was hit there, but it does look like this was an ECS and two or three M901 launchers from the MIM-104 SAM-system (or two launchers and an EPP vehicle carrying power generators), i.e. a part of a Patriot battalion (most important elements of which were described here).
What is surprising me is to see any kind of an Ukrainian column being hit while, de-facto, ‘on move’. This is something happening extremely rare. And, according to unofficial Russian sources, this column was hit while somewhere in the Serhiivka area, about 80km east/north-west from Donetsk.
Combined with the fact the Russians have found it ‘worth’ to target such a column with an Iskander missile (which, meanwhile, are very rare), does make me think this might have been one of elements of the 138th Air Defence Brigade, detected by Russian UAVs while re-deploying into its next firing position.
Of course, for the time being, this remains unconfirmed. We’ll have to wait and see if any additional details might be released - regardless by what side.
But, if this turns out to have been an element of one of Ukrainian-operated Patriot SAM-systems, it would make this an excellent example for ‘Russian SEAD’ (SEAD stands for ‘suppression of enemy air defences’): regardless how much ‘assessed’ as not doing that, the VKS is flying such operations. We just do not know about their effects because Ukrainians never confirm nor deny if anything is hit by Russian anti-radar missiles (which is good that way, because nobody wants to tell the Russians what of their tactics and weapons work, and what not). Foremost, the Russians are - nearly always - combining VKS operations with those of their GRU (military intelligence), artillery and UAVs.
Finally, it’s much easier - and quicker - to bring a single ‘transporter-erector-launcher’ (TEL) for an Iskander (or BM-30) into a suitable firing position, than to brief the crews and prepare an entire strike package of combat aircraft to do the job. Think, this is something ‘fans’ of ‘give F-16s to Ukraine’ should keep in mind, too.
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ADD-ONs
No.1
Two days ago, Ukrainian air force seems to have delivered a very precise strike on one of Russian forward headquarters. The area in question is not mentioned, though. In turn, yesterday late in teh afternoon the Russians claimed an Ukrainian MiG-29 shot down in the Pokrovsk area, about 60km east of Donetsk, and the video from which this still was taken seems to be confirming that claim:
(‘For the records’: the last Ukrainian MiG-29 was claimed by the Keystone Cops in Moscow on 5 March, but as shot down in the Mykolaiv area…. probably by their MiG-31s or Su-35s, using R-37M long-range air-to-air missiles.)
No.2
Ukrainians have knocked out one of Russian Buk/SA-17 TELARs.
No. 3
According to reports in the Russian social media, the Taganrog Air Base was hit by something (Ukrainian), the last night. At first they reported damage on one A-50 parked there for over a week: meanwhile, this has been ‘updated’ into ‘destroyed’.
If this is correct then, yes: according to my counting, the VKS is now down to just 6 or 7 A-50Us and A-100s.
Seems that Russia has finally figured out how to track and destroy moving assets. They took out Himars the other day and as they now are back doing air sorties in full swing then it seems at least they think they have somewhat neutralised Ukrainian AA ambush tactics.
If thats true then things are pretty bleak for Ukraine as I dont think they have any air defence assets to spare and whatever ground defenses they are building those really wont matter against 1500kg glide bombs.
Meanwhile Europe is paralyzed by fear over Russian nuclear threats and US has been made dysfunctional.
As history is written by the victors then maybe it will be then Putin The Great and "great gathering of Russian lands" as if they subjugate Ukrain then no one will say nothing when they annex all the rest of Ex Soviet republics. That would give Russia enormous resources and access to healthy central asian demographics (read endless meat wave attack option unlocked).
After that, its a quick tour to Baltics and we are gonna get that WW3 that all the western policymakers did their "best" to avoid by declining arming Ukraine when it mattered.
For a common man in Western world I think its time to start thinking in the terms of how to survive this period as everybody who just picks their noses now will be in the trenches dodging kamikaze drones in a few years time.
Honestly biggest blame should go to Biden admin. Drip feeding, limiting weapons deliveries, Russia has gotten plenty of time to adapt to the war. Fellow Democrats dont like hearing this but this is the bitter truth. I dont think it can be said enough just how much he wasted bipartisan Ukrainian support. Its actually been the UK leading the way. They sent the first ATGMs, howitzers, pilot training, ALCMs, etc. We cant spend too much time blaming Republicans when our own Democratic President is too weak and slow to act with conviction, he's part of the problem when we look at the outcome. He's more focused on ensuring a second term than doing whats right.