Hello everybody! ‘Minutes’ ago, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have released a video showing what they first claimed was a hit on a column of vehicles including a number of vehicles related to the S-300 surface-to-air missile system (would be ‘SA-10 Grumble’, in ASCC/NATO nomenclature).
I wondered what could make the day worse, but the world finds ways. I forgot is ECS a radar and how irreplaceable are the losses? By the way do you have any ideas about the drone that is used? Does it also mean that Russian OODA loop decreased significantly and how can Ukrainians prevent such losses in the future?
Seems that Russia has finally figured out how to track and destroy moving assets. They took out Himars the other day and as they now are back doing air sorties in full swing then it seems at least they think they have somewhat neutralised Ukrainian AA ambush tactics.
If thats true then things are pretty bleak for Ukraine as I dont think they have any air defence assets to spare and whatever ground defenses they are building those really wont matter against 1500kg glide bombs.
Meanwhile Europe is paralyzed by fear over Russian nuclear threats and US has been made dysfunctional.
As history is written by the victors then maybe it will be then Putin The Great and "great gathering of Russian lands" as if they subjugate Ukrain then no one will say nothing when they annex all the rest of Ex Soviet republics. That would give Russia enormous resources and access to healthy central asian demographics (read endless meat wave attack option unlocked).
After that, its a quick tour to Baltics and we are gonna get that WW3 that all the western policymakers did their "best" to avoid by declining arming Ukraine when it mattered.
For a common man in Western world I think its time to start thinking in the terms of how to survive this period as everybody who just picks their noses now will be in the trenches dodging kamikaze drones in a few years time.
Well, I’m not sure why so much emphasis on the destruction of the A50s (and what’s more it does seem that the one destroyed was the one under repair after being hit in Belarus) If Ukrainian drones can strike at the airports in Russia, better aim for the fighters and bombers.
A pedantic note: this is not SEAD, but DEAD. Destruction, not supression of air defences. Between this, HIMARS the other day and previous P-18 and NASAMS strikes its obvious the Russians are onto something. Either broken into Ukr secure comms, better, stealthier surveillance drones, covert operatives deep behind lines attaching beacons to vehicles, etc. Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.
Honestly biggest blame should go to Biden admin. Drip feeding, limiting weapons deliveries, Russia has gotten plenty of time to adapt to the war. Fellow Democrats dont like hearing this but this is the bitter truth. I dont think it can be said enough just how much he wasted bipartisan Ukrainian support. Its actually been the UK leading the way. They sent the first ATGMs, howitzers, pilot training, ALCMs, etc. We cant spend too much time blaming Republicans when our own Democratic President is too weak and slow to act with conviction, he's part of the problem when we look at the outcome. He's more focused on ensuring a second term than doing whats right.
A couple of observations from an retired redleg. First, this was a well done strike. Excellent target location, and as it was in convoy formation it was either getting ready to move, was paused while moving, or had just got there, the RU kill chain was spot on. That had just arrived or paused while moving, that was some solid work by the RU. If it was forming up to move, also a good job, but not as complex as while moving obviously, but the convoy commander screwed up in that you form up and you MOVE. You do not sit around on a road in a line wasting time that could get you spotted. I have to give them credit where its due. I'm not sure I'd call this SEAD though, I always understood SEAD as something done during an air operation (at least that is how we always did it) or prep for an operation, while just hitting the ADA during normal operations was regular targeting using your High Payoff Target list. Minor point though. The other thing is that it appears the UA needs to work on some tactical ADA support for their bigger ADA assets. Orlans are killers, but an Avenger would have knocked it out. The UA needs more anti-recon drone assets on the front line it appears. But it appears they missed the radar and C2 node, so that is good. Might be damaged though. And also, no secondaries as noted below, so that is something.
I'm have some questions about aire attrition. Why the VKS is not employing it's Miga 29 and 35?
What about the thousands of decommisioned and stored Mig-23 and 27? And it's possible to get some old Migs and Su from CIS countries, to refurbish and replenish VKS (por Ucranian), like Kazaks, Kirghiz and Uzbeks? What about Etiopian and Eritrean Migs and Sukois?
Regarding NASAMS which was hit in Zaporizhzhya area. As they have max wiki range about 50km, and real should be 35-40max, what is re reason to keep it near front line? Is ru AF flying so close or it's just for UAV hunting?
Wonder what's the likelyhood Russia has hacked something used by Ukraine's anti-air and arty teams. This increase in precision seems too big otherwise. Let's hope it's indeed something like that and Ukraine manages to adopt countermeasures fast.
I wondered what could make the day worse, but the world finds ways. I forgot is ECS a radar and how irreplaceable are the losses? By the way do you have any ideas about the drone that is used? Does it also mean that Russian OODA loop decreased significantly and how can Ukrainians prevent such losses in the future?
Seems that Russia has finally figured out how to track and destroy moving assets. They took out Himars the other day and as they now are back doing air sorties in full swing then it seems at least they think they have somewhat neutralised Ukrainian AA ambush tactics.
If thats true then things are pretty bleak for Ukraine as I dont think they have any air defence assets to spare and whatever ground defenses they are building those really wont matter against 1500kg glide bombs.
Meanwhile Europe is paralyzed by fear over Russian nuclear threats and US has been made dysfunctional.
As history is written by the victors then maybe it will be then Putin The Great and "great gathering of Russian lands" as if they subjugate Ukrain then no one will say nothing when they annex all the rest of Ex Soviet republics. That would give Russia enormous resources and access to healthy central asian demographics (read endless meat wave attack option unlocked).
After that, its a quick tour to Baltics and we are gonna get that WW3 that all the western policymakers did their "best" to avoid by declining arming Ukraine when it mattered.
For a common man in Western world I think its time to start thinking in the terms of how to survive this period as everybody who just picks their noses now will be in the trenches dodging kamikaze drones in a few years time.
Thanks for so quick an update this is.
If RuZZians are able to track and destroy AA assets, the next weeks can be very hot (in the worse sense for Ukraine).
Well, I’m not sure why so much emphasis on the destruction of the A50s (and what’s more it does seem that the one destroyed was the one under repair after being hit in Belarus) If Ukrainian drones can strike at the airports in Russia, better aim for the fighters and bombers.
Ukraine has to surrender the Donbas to Russia and ask for a peace treaty. Hopefully Russia should consider if so
A pedantic note: this is not SEAD, but DEAD. Destruction, not supression of air defences. Between this, HIMARS the other day and previous P-18 and NASAMS strikes its obvious the Russians are onto something. Either broken into Ukr secure comms, better, stealthier surveillance drones, covert operatives deep behind lines attaching beacons to vehicles, etc. Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.
Thanks Tom 1 st half of the report not very good last parts is encouraging , could some of these loses be to different tactics of the new CiC
Honestly biggest blame should go to Biden admin. Drip feeding, limiting weapons deliveries, Russia has gotten plenty of time to adapt to the war. Fellow Democrats dont like hearing this but this is the bitter truth. I dont think it can be said enough just how much he wasted bipartisan Ukrainian support. Its actually been the UK leading the way. They sent the first ATGMs, howitzers, pilot training, ALCMs, etc. We cant spend too much time blaming Republicans when our own Democratic President is too weak and slow to act with conviction, he's part of the problem when we look at the outcome. He's more focused on ensuring a second term than doing whats right.
A couple of observations from an retired redleg. First, this was a well done strike. Excellent target location, and as it was in convoy formation it was either getting ready to move, was paused while moving, or had just got there, the RU kill chain was spot on. That had just arrived or paused while moving, that was some solid work by the RU. If it was forming up to move, also a good job, but not as complex as while moving obviously, but the convoy commander screwed up in that you form up and you MOVE. You do not sit around on a road in a line wasting time that could get you spotted. I have to give them credit where its due. I'm not sure I'd call this SEAD though, I always understood SEAD as something done during an air operation (at least that is how we always did it) or prep for an operation, while just hitting the ADA during normal operations was regular targeting using your High Payoff Target list. Minor point though. The other thing is that it appears the UA needs to work on some tactical ADA support for their bigger ADA assets. Orlans are killers, but an Avenger would have knocked it out. The UA needs more anti-recon drone assets on the front line it appears. But it appears they missed the radar and C2 node, so that is good. Might be damaged though. And also, no secondaries as noted below, so that is something.
Thank you.
Thanks Tom.
I'm have some questions about aire attrition. Why the VKS is not employing it's Miga 29 and 35?
What about the thousands of decommisioned and stored Mig-23 and 27? And it's possible to get some old Migs and Su from CIS countries, to refurbish and replenish VKS (por Ucranian), like Kazaks, Kirghiz and Uzbeks? What about Etiopian and Eritrean Migs and Sukois?
Does it make any sense to deploy multiple launchers in an ambush?
Regarding NASAMS which was hit in Zaporizhzhya area. As they have max wiki range about 50km, and real should be 35-40max, what is re reason to keep it near front line? Is ru AF flying so close or it's just for UAV hunting?
1. Why are they driving in a column?
2. Himars Yesterday and Patriot today , seems like Ru have figured out something.
Wonder what's the likelyhood Russia has hacked something used by Ukraine's anti-air and arty teams. This increase in precision seems too big otherwise. Let's hope it's indeed something like that and Ukraine manages to adopt countermeasures fast.
Whether you like it or not Russia is turning the tide of the war in its favor