All the time ZSU (or at least the majority of the pundits) is stressing that this is an war of attrition and the aim is not to hold a piece of land but to destroy the Russian war machine. Well, where best to destroy it,than in its rear? Be it Kursk, Voronezh or St Pete. It was a surprising move, yet very logical - to give fight in Kursk, rather than Nyu York
Dunno if it was intentional, but they are taking those units trousers down (out of trenches), without the losses they would suffer 'in the line' and with tons of equipment. Net gain already. They make more work than they would be able to with just by 'holding the line'.
As somebody amateur enough even for an armchair general, I think it's still a raid, to draw out forces from around Belgorod. And maybe there will be a second, more important axis in the coming weeks.
As you mentioned when ZSU is on the move, UMPKs are rendered useless, so let them roar in Kursk or Briansk and have the Russian assemble troops in ratio of 3:1 or higher and conduct their favorite infantry-led assaults.
I think it is also important that when the russians will counterattack they will drop their bombs on russian houses and not on ukrainian ones. That is also a benefit from the offensive.
What about with situation on another points of russian- ukrainian war (Pokrovsk, Toretsk and so on), that We do not forget, that war is on huge territory? As I saw Ukrainian troops made some contur attack near New-York.
Be sure, not 'forgetting' them, but simply lacking time for everything at once. I'll get back to that - and to our collection for the 151st Mech, too - as soon as I only can.
It’s aligned with the strategy vision Zaluzhnyi presented in autumn 2023, that the war should be transferred to the Russian territory as well. Will see what is ahead.
As Oleksii said above, constituent republics of the USSR were powerless administrative entities, and Moscow leaders didn't trade with them. They would assign territories and add or revoke special statuses as arbitrarily as they saw fit. Before 1944, for example, Crimea was not part of Soviet Russia, but a separate autonomous republic.
But Kursk or Belgorod, while having a significant or even majority Ukrainian population, were assigned to Russia straight from the beginning of the USSR.
(The Tsarist empire before that used Ukraine or Russia as geographical terms only, their administration was handled via governorates centered on specific cities.)
За переписом 1897 року 61 відсоток Суджі говорив українською мовою. Курська область це колишні українські землі. А Суджа протягом кількох місяців в 1918 році була столицею Радянської України.
Thanks Tom. To what extent do you think the Americans might pressure the Ukrainians to pull back (not that they seem to be listening, thank goodness!)?
In point of fact, the Pentagon taking the lead on setting the narrative may indicate it's finally breaking free of the White House to some degree. Biden being a lame duck means that everyone is going to test the US.
Underneath the top layer of zombie idiots in the Beltway is a whole lot of mid-level people who actually know how to get stuff done. They're just never allowed to by their masters, pets of profit-hoovering oligarchs.
So I love seeing them move to give Ukraine tacit backing before Bidenworld and allied media can make this look like a stunt. Finally getting ahead of the information war loop...
But in my perception, thus far, the West (USA in particular) has been "nickle & dime-ing" the Ukrainians. Analogy is something like giving a wounded animal just enough medicine to live, but not nearly enough to recover totally. War is expensive and requires huge amounts of material. It will take lots more logistics to enable Ukraine to eject the Russian military out of Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea.
Somebody made some very poor command decisions to allow all those troop carriers to be served up on the side of the road and in a neat column like that. Footage like this will impact recruitment.
I suppose that these vehicles were parked along the road, because (it's my understanding that) HIMARS and similar weapons are for hitting stationary targets?
Moving targets can be hit by artillery (rocket and conventional) but you have to anticipate where the target will be and allow for the coordination, loading, firing and flight time of the munition. It's much easier for units that have mortars assigned to them with maybe 30 seconds flight time. For artillery, that's another organizational layer and flight times of 30 seconds to 2 minutes.
(At Okinawa, a Japanese regiment was forming in the daylight for a banzai charge. In about 15 minutes time, the US coordinated the fires of all ground and naval artillery within range, assigned sectors of fire for the 1 km wide target, and coordinated the flight times (several minutes for naval guns) so that they all impacted at the same time. Over 900 Japanese will killed within 30 seconds. The US was excellent in coordinating air, naval and ground artillery assets across organizational boundaries).
Stationary targets are much easier to coordinate and you don't want to waste a $180k M31 rocket.
Here's the footage of the actual attack. Notice how the rockets land within a 30 second span of time instead of simultaneously and how some personnel are able to seek cover in that time span.
Great news definitely! I wonder if Russian civilians in the villages are still afraid of "fierce and cruel banderovites". A video appeared where some Russian inhabitant of the occupied area is driving a car and filming damaged Russian lorries and numerous corpses of the Russian soldiers. Apparently he is sure that Ukrainian troops will not do any harm to him. There will be no "Russian Bucha". Glory to heroes!
For me, it's more similar to 'Afrika Korps' - simply because the involved ZSU units are capturing so many Russians and their vehicles, and making use of the latter, meanwhile.
(Mind: as of mid-1942, up to 80% of vehicles used by the DAK were of British/Canadian/US origin.)
I say this perhaps with somewhat of "tongue in cheek," that it seems to me that the primary mission of this Ukrainian mini-invasion of Russia is to gather logistics for Ukrainian military's future use. **LOL**
Time to fix the title to "Not-only-Ukraine War" wink-wink
Time to fix the title to "Not-only-Ukraine War" wink-wink
Thanks Tom.
All the time ZSU (or at least the majority of the pundits) is stressing that this is an war of attrition and the aim is not to hold a piece of land but to destroy the Russian war machine. Well, where best to destroy it,than in its rear? Be it Kursk, Voronezh or St Pete. It was a surprising move, yet very logical - to give fight in Kursk, rather than Nyu York
Dunno if it was intentional, but they are taking those units trousers down (out of trenches), without the losses they would suffer 'in the line' and with tons of equipment. Net gain already. They make more work than they would be able to with just by 'holding the line'.
As somebody amateur enough even for an armchair general, I think it's still a raid, to draw out forces from around Belgorod. And maybe there will be a second, more important axis in the coming weeks.
Of course it's intentional. At war, nothing's better than catching the enemy with 'pants down'.
As you mentioned when ZSU is on the move, UMPKs are rendered useless, so let them roar in Kursk or Briansk and have the Russian assemble troops in ratio of 3:1 or higher and conduct their favorite infantry-led assaults.
Thank you Tom
Wish I could see Pudding's face when he realizes he's getting a lot of his own medicine!
Classic what goes around comes around: lots of ORC KIAs.
Glory to Ukraine.
I think it is also important that when the russians will counterattack they will drop their bombs on russian houses and not on ukrainian ones. That is also a benefit from the offensive.
Dear Tom.
What about with situation on another points of russian- ukrainian war (Pokrovsk, Toretsk and so on), that We do not forget, that war is on huge territory? As I saw Ukrainian troops made some contur attack near New-York.
Be sure, not 'forgetting' them, but simply lacking time for everything at once. I'll get back to that - and to our collection for the 151st Mech, too - as soon as I only can.
Probably just local counterattack, that will allow other units to withdraw safely.
It’s aligned with the strategy vision Zaluzhnyi presented in autumn 2023, that the war should be transferred to the Russian territory as well. Will see what is ahead.
Mentioned Zeleny Shlyakh - most possibly https://maps.app.goo.gl/jRacNyFCdrRegeJm7
Also, interestingly but unsurprisingly the village has a Ukrainian name bc shliakh is the Ukrainian for "way/road".
Kursk area was a part of Ukraine once ago. )
A lot of toponomy in this region is still Ukrainian-related.
Didn’t Nikita trade this oblast for Crimea?
It wasn't trade, but management. As many other map changes done by Soviet Union government.
As Oleksii said above, constituent republics of the USSR were powerless administrative entities, and Moscow leaders didn't trade with them. They would assign territories and add or revoke special statuses as arbitrarily as they saw fit. Before 1944, for example, Crimea was not part of Soviet Russia, but a separate autonomous republic.
But Kursk or Belgorod, while having a significant or even majority Ukrainian population, were assigned to Russia straight from the beginning of the USSR.
(The Tsarist empire before that used Ukraine or Russia as geographical terms only, their administration was handled via governorates centered on specific cities.)
За переписом 1897 року 61 відсоток Суджі говорив українською мовою. Курська область це колишні українські землі. А Суджа протягом кількох місяців в 1918 році була столицею Радянської України.
Thanks Tom. To what extent do you think the Americans might pressure the Ukrainians to pull back (not that they seem to be listening, thank goodness!)?
Pentagon says Ukraine can use HIMARS, ATACMS, and any other weapons provided in Kursk
Please mind: what the Pentagon says in the public, and the White House does 'behind the closed doors' - are two entirely different 'pairs of shoes'.
In point of fact, the Pentagon taking the lead on setting the narrative may indicate it's finally breaking free of the White House to some degree. Biden being a lame duck means that everyone is going to test the US.
Underneath the top layer of zombie idiots in the Beltway is a whole lot of mid-level people who actually know how to get stuff done. They're just never allowed to by their masters, pets of profit-hoovering oligarchs.
So I love seeing them move to give Ukraine tacit backing before Bidenworld and allied media can make this look like a stunt. Finally getting ahead of the information war loop...
To be fair, I think this is called “politics”, and is true for every government, everywhere.
But this time column in russian territory was definitely hit by HIMARS. And that's a good sign for a future.
....and that's only one case known in the public...
Also, this is excelent PR for the western help "finally they are advancing with our equipment"
But in my perception, thus far, the West (USA in particular) has been "nickle & dime-ing" the Ukrainians. Analogy is something like giving a wounded animal just enough medicine to live, but not nearly enough to recover totally. War is expensive and requires huge amounts of material. It will take lots more logistics to enable Ukraine to eject the Russian military out of Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea.
Another video](https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1821806855305167241) of the destroyed column the day after.
Somebody made some very poor command decisions to allow all those troop carriers to be served up on the side of the road and in a neat column like that. Footage like this will impact recruitment.
The person who posted the footage was reportedly arrested by the FSB. https://t.me/typical_rilsk46/9934
I suppose that these vehicles were parked along the road, because (it's my understanding that) HIMARS and similar weapons are for hitting stationary targets?
Moving targets can be hit by artillery (rocket and conventional) but you have to anticipate where the target will be and allow for the coordination, loading, firing and flight time of the munition. It's much easier for units that have mortars assigned to them with maybe 30 seconds flight time. For artillery, that's another organizational layer and flight times of 30 seconds to 2 minutes.
(At Okinawa, a Japanese regiment was forming in the daylight for a banzai charge. In about 15 minutes time, the US coordinated the fires of all ground and naval artillery within range, assigned sectors of fire for the 1 km wide target, and coordinated the flight times (several minutes for naval guns) so that they all impacted at the same time. Over 900 Japanese will killed within 30 seconds. The US was excellent in coordinating air, naval and ground artillery assets across organizational boundaries).
Stationary targets are much easier to coordinate and you don't want to waste a $180k M31 rocket.
Here's the footage of the actual attack. Notice how the rockets land within a 30 second span of time instead of simultaneously and how some personnel are able to seek cover in that time span.
Great news definitely! I wonder if Russian civilians in the villages are still afraid of "fierce and cruel banderovites". A video appeared where some Russian inhabitant of the occupied area is driving a car and filming damaged Russian lorries and numerous corpses of the Russian soldiers. Apparently he is sure that Ukrainian troops will not do any harm to him. There will be no "Russian Bucha". Glory to heroes!
Judging by the means of avance, this looks like a soviet deep manouver operation, or a classic NATO manual mech avance?
Or, by the lack of armour, an "afrika korps" inspired "march to Tobruk"?
Thanks for this, Tom
For me, it's more similar to 'Afrika Korps' - simply because the involved ZSU units are capturing so many Russians and their vehicles, and making use of the latter, meanwhile.
(Mind: as of mid-1942, up to 80% of vehicles used by the DAK were of British/Canadian/US origin.)
I say this perhaps with somewhat of "tongue in cheek," that it seems to me that the primary mission of this Ukrainian mini-invasion of Russia is to gather logistics for Ukrainian military's future use. **LOL**
Thank you Tom! It is quite confusing so far, thus your summary is very appreciated