37 Comments
Apr 9·edited Apr 9

"46th Airborne…which, by sheer accident, came into being in similar fashion like the 67th" - I'm not that much sure, yet the 46th looks like just a newly-formed traditional brigade with a traditional symbolics and motto, not a semi-self-organized ideological volunteers like 67th, or 3rd Assault (Azov the movement) or even 47th (wich is an experimental volunteer unit, yet not an ideological one).

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Apr 10·edited Apr 10Author

Yes, the 67th is a 'veteran Nationalist' unit in combat since 2014.

This is a fact it's using for its PR, too.

....that said, most of its fame came from the times Da Vinci Wolves were a part of it. Following.... erm... 'disagreements' between commanders, in February this year Da Vinci Wolves were re-assigned to the 59th.

The 67th is making lots of PR, and doing as if being in competition with the entire ZSU regarding recruiting.

Well, perhaps instead of 'excellent PR', they could've taken care to mine approaches to Chasiv Yar: after all that - fighting - is the primary purpose of a combat unit. Not doing so was a major screw up, and has certainly led to the unit suffering unnecessary losses. Otherwise, jerks like me can't but talk about wrong priorities and incompetence.

....but then, that's a typical problem with the Pravi/Right Sector: they always must be 'right'...

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Apr 10·edited Apr 10Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I agree in regards of 67th (with the only remark, that the 3rd Assault is much more loud in their recruiting ads, 67th is not even close to be that much ubiquitous, though 3rd Assault is also much more thorough in training).

My point was that 46th is not to any extent something of this kind - 46th is not a volunteer unit, it's a traditionally-regular airborne brigade, I've seen no recruting ads of their at all (maybe there are some in Zhitomir, their home city), their servicemen don't even wear any ribbons out of regulations (for comparison - you can see alot of different out-of-regulations ribbons in 93th, wich is regular and extremely effective). I think the cause of their failure in Soledar was either their relatively green status or a mix of other units stacked then to their area of responsibility.

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How would one implement terminal guidance at 1000 km range with no AWACS or satellites available?

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Self-guidance

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It is very likely to already be there. At least the droves are not suppressed by GPS jammers which means they already use computer vision for navigation which means they already rely on self-guidance.

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Apr 9Liked by Sarcastosaurus

There's a bit of terminological swamp - the difference between the terminal guidance and the navigation (wich is not as much terminal). Currently these drones definitely have some smart navigation tools making them EW-resistant enough to sneak through the Russian frontline, yet if they have any ability to discern the targets (wich is the terminal guidance) is a question.

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Apr 9Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Terminal guidance often has the technical form of a ’target seeker’. This has some kind of sensor, like radar (mm-wave), IR, TV or similar. The electronic signals from the sensor are then processed electronically, in order to determine the correct point of impact, the missile or UAV is then terminally guided/steered to this point of impact.

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Apr 9·edited Apr 9

Thus, which of these inputs can be relied on against landed aircraft (no IR from engines) under heavy EW (including radar suppression) and visual camouflage (remember those well-drown planes)? We don't even know if they have lasers to blind cameras.

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I would guess ordinary IR-cameras, as often used on FPV drones already. 8-12 ym

They generate an IR-video of good quality, wich is then used for picture processing. No need for ”hot spots” from engines. Day and night vision. Can often see through ordinary camouflage due to thermal signature, but can possibly be countered with special thermal camouflage.

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It is very likely that they are already used by those long-range drones for navigation.

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Yes, can be used for navigating as well. The technique used is often correlation navigation. Information, like digital maps is compared to what the camera, ladar, radar, whatever sensor sees and the position can then be determined and updated. The same correlation technique can then be used during the final terminal guidance. A digital model of what the target looks like is compared with what the sensors detect and the impact point can be detected and steered at.

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Apr 9Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I know is kind of “Boring” to speak about 1-2 Platoons gaining or losing 30-50 meters in some frontline, but to “remind” it is IMHO necessary for focus the like-Fish attention of Western politicians, “experten” and public in general about RuZZian aggression war against Ukraine is still bloodily and sadly raging.

Thanks for your time and your work!

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Thanks Tom.

Btw, the distance between Soledar and Chasyv Yar is 22km. 15 months.

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I think that Macron is currently the smartest leader in the West - the one-eyed among the blind. While Biden and Scholz were quick to declare their own “red lines” - we are not doing this, we are not giving that, Macron started to sound ambivalent, to bluff etc. it would be even better had he taken the next step - if you don’t want to see French troops on the front line, then provide that and that weapon(s) but I think this is the direction he is moving. No wonder that let-the-conflict-freeze camp ( Biden&Scholz) are reportedly angry by Macron’s “escalation.” Of course there is also much more that France can do. Recently France promised 70 Caesars and a lot of her old IFVs but I’m not sure when they will be actually delivered.

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My first thoughts were also WTF.

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None of them is giving anything to Ukraine. OK, Scholz is providing funding. That's about it.

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Apr 9Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Well if Macron is the smartest leader in the West, then we are in deep **** cause he is not just an idiot but a full lunatic.

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Apr 9Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Compare the amount of France and Germany donations - finance and arms. Macron cares just about his PR, that's all, unfortunately.

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Apr 9Liked by Sarcastosaurus

In Europe, the adequate leader is Peter Cech and the leadership of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. For the rest of the better I am silent ... Oh, by the way, America handed over 5000 AK-74, that's what I understand help, good guys, well done. Thank you guys. :)

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Woa! 5000 AK-74s... they shouldn't overdo themselves...

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It was the US that gave the aid to keep Ukraine from hitting oil refineries in Russia :). Given Austin's latest statement. I wonder if the Americans can ask Russia not to destroy Ukraine's thermal and hydro power plants.

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Petr Cech is a famous former footbal goalkeeper. You mean Petr Pavel probably - Czech president. Well leader, he is too diplomatic, too cautious.

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Apr 9Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Methinks that the French troops took the wrong train and went to London, instead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3I7_wJT3FPA

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Apr 9Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks Tom, not a lot of encouraging new in this report but it is what it is

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Yup. And it's not like I'm 'delighted' to have to report such things...

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That BM-21 makes a BEAUTIFUL looking Flower.

Alright….wait a second…… How the HELL can a BRIGADE have a Full Artillery Regiment AND at least 7 other Battalions???? I guess that would be at least 12 Bn or more.....but DAMN!!!!!

Hey….if people are wondering what the conditions are like on the front lines have them reference some of the front lines in World War I….especially in the Lowlands.

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Tom, Lloyd Austin explicitly saying that Ukrainians shouldn’t attack refineries - maybe these strikes were more effective than you(we) thought? As the pause in these strikes suggests that Ukraine can’t go (or is not willing to) against the wishes of its largest arms supplier, I think that then this resource should be used against the Russian airbases with even less hesitation. And from time to time the other arms facilities, chemical plants, the steel facilities (if the strike against the Lipetsk factory was successful, I think that curbing of the steel production in Russia becomes a real possibility but somehow I doubt that a few drones caused a lasting damage in Lipetsk)

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Oh, if they use that size of strikes against refineries 3 or 4 times, you will get a real hardcore inflation in Russia and ours in Europe would also go way up.

That would be the first real game changer and if the US is not delivering anything anyway, blow the damn things up.

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These attacks cause crude oil price rise and high crude oil price is a good income for Russia (look on the stock market). Then, Russia state have more budget may to subsidize the gasoline it buys from abroad to make it's inflation lower. So, the overall effect on the Russian economy is not so big. Furthermore, high prices would make India and other importers of Russian oil more reluctant to stop to import the Russian oil.

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There is no reason a strike on a refinery to cause higher oil price. Refineries buy oil; if one is down - Russia should be able to sell more oil on the market. Of course in the short-term there are some disruptions but blaming rising oil prices on a 10-15% loss of refining capacity in Russia is a non-sense. No one has heard about OPEC+ and “voluntary” cuts foremost by Saudi Arabia? What about the shale producers in US? It’s funny that the Biden administration is pushing for more Russian oil while pressing its own producers to produce less.

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Sorry, it’s idiotic not funny.

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Yes, oil price is affected by many factors and demage of oil rafineries is just one of them. Also, the price in the marked is driven by "expectations" and "predictions", if si something uncertain - the price rise. Just google e.g. for "russia rafineries global oil price" and you found several sources about the topic.

(And yes, OPEC is the main oil price creator. And no, USA oil production is high already and cannot compete with OPEC.)

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Perhaps they stopped providing arms to Ukraine as they are afraid of ruzzian troops get killed and military equipment will be destroyed. US obviously has changed the side after pudding threatened to destroy US satellites in orbit which will be greatest disaster for national security of the US.

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Apr 10Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the update Tom. I wonder what you think about the recently fielded Ukrainian loitering munition RAM-X. https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1777712898401267723. Seems like if produced in large numbers could cause serious issues for the Russians

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Of course it could. But, first it must be manufactured in big numbers...

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The 46th brigade (remnants) is also standing in the Mariinsky direction.

Not sure about the 33rd mech, but there is definitely a 33rd engineer battalion there. Maybe a mistake

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