Ukraine War, 9 April 2024

Hello everybody!

After answering most of questions that came back in response to my update from two days ago, somebody asked me for yet more commentary about Macron’s announcements about deployment of French troops in Ukraine…

I mean: really…?

I’m already short on commentary useful as ‘introduction’, but should now say something about an incompetent-banker-cum-wannabe-world-leader in urgent need of PR-points…?

….with other words: straight to ‘action’...

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STRATEGIC

Estonia is reporting that they’ve found another 1 million of artillery rockets and artillery shells ‘somewhere’ on the international market. Now it’s important for the EU to fund their acquisition, and that asap (of course, even once the shells are bought it’s going to take 2-3 months for them to start reaching Ukraine).

…with all the ‘major powers’ in the West remaining in disorder caused by corruption and incompetence of their ‘leaders’, at least one can count on ‘minor’ European states in this conflict…

...and no: Iranians are NOT delivering their (guided) ballistic missiles to Russia. After all, there is still some sanity left (even in) Tehran.

What am I talking about?

Well, ask yourself: why should the IRGC provide Pudding with even more goodies when he’s refusing to deliver all the technical documentation and tools necessary for Iranians to not only maintain and overhaul any kind of Su-35s at home, but to manufacture spares for them, too?

(….which is reminding me that I still owe you the Part 2 of this story…)

At least the quality of Russian… or was it North-Korean-made - rounds for BM-21 multiple rocket launchers is constantly improving. Not necessarily in favour of their users, though…

This BM-21 launcher blew up due to a faulty rocket.

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AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

The last night, the Russians released 20 Shaheds over Ukraine, and Kyiv is claiming that all 20 have been shot down.

Around the same time, at least two Ukrainian UAVs have hit the Borisoglebsk AB (the Russians have confirmed an attack). Results are not yet known – but not much is to be expected until somebody there in Ukraine makes many more such UAVs and then equips them with terminal guidance, too.

This is a still from a video that scared me at the first look: it appeared as if (at least some of) Russian UMPKs would now be rocket-powered - which is something I’m expecting to happen ‘as next’, rather sooner than later: simply in order to give them more range. Much to my relief, it turned out the ‘flame’ in question is actually coming from a pyrotechnic device used to ‘open’ (or ‘flip open’) their wings.

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BATTLE OF DONBAS

Bakhmut… generally, the (re-filled) 98^th VDV Division and the (re-filled) 11^th VDV Brigade of the Russian Group Zapad are receiving all support the VSRF and the VKS can offer. This is meanwhile including not only plentiful of glide-bombs and artillery (which are constantly pounding Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky, directly behind the frontline), but direct air strikes by Su-25s releasing bombs.

The Russian shelling of Kalynivka, two days ago.

Their immediate aims are Bohdanivka (north-east of Chasiv Yar) and Chasiv Yar: (what is left of) these are defended by the 67^th Mech, 42^nd Mech, and the 241^st TD Brigades.

….where the 67^th Mech seems to be highly-praised – both in Ukraine and abroad (and then by a few colleagues of mine, too). Must admit, I’ve got no idea why: sure, the 67^th – which came into being through reorganisation of all the possible volunteer assets of the Pravi/Right Sector – has very effective PR- and recruitment departments, and is meanwhile including six manoeuvring battalions, an air defence battalion, and a full artillery regiment…and, and, and…. and gauging by what some of my colleagues say, must have headquarters with curtains in design by Laura Ashley, too…. However, when even the Russian social media starts wondering how comes the 67^th failed to mine the Road 0506 and surrounding fields, or how comes Su-25s can strike it in direct attacks… well, nerds like me know ‘what’s the time’….

With other words: I hope (can’t pray: I’m an atheist and have no idea how nor to whom or why to pray) - this is not going to end like the story of the 46^th Airborne…which, by sheer accident, came into being in similar fashion like the 67^th… and was then deployed to some place named Soledar which nobody can recall any more, some 15 months back…

(DISCLAIMER: Yes, I do have something like ‘dislike’ for ‘politically-motivated & organised’ units. Is based on decades of war-studies, the experiences from which are leading to only one conclusion: they’re ‘always highly-praised’, and ‘a… erm.. at least regularly’ failing…)

Further south, the 5^th Assault is still holding hills west of Ivanivske, and thus having a ‘fire-control’ over the western side of this ruined village. But, the latest assault into southern Ivanivske seems to have brought the Russians some 150-200m closer to the Siversky Donets – Donbas Canal…

The ZSU has certainly deployed some reinforcements to the Bakhmut area, because now even (Swedish-made) CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles can be seen there.

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Avdiivka-Shakhtarsk… the composition of Russian units (Group Tsentr) in this area is meanwhile something like this (from north towards south):

-          15^th Motor-Rifle Brigade

-          137^th Assault Brigade

-          30^th Motor-Rifle Brigade

-          114^th Motor-Rifle Brigade

-          21^st Motor-Rifle Brigade

-          1^st Motor-Rifle Brigade (DPR)

-          21^st Motor-Rifle Brigade

-          9^th Motor-Rifle Brigade

-          74^th Motor-Rifle Brigade

-          55^th Motor-Rifle Brigade

-          15^th Pyatnashka Brigade

-          BARS-15

-          BARS-35

-          385^th Artillery Brigade

Mind: most of brigades were meanwhile ‘re-filled’ with (dozens of) reservist regiments.

Ukrainians are defending with following units (from north towards south):

-          71^st Jäger

-          23^rd Mech

-          47^th Mech (M1s and M2/M3s)

-          3^rd Assault (1-2 battalions, not sure if more)

-          25^th Airborne

-          68^th Jäger

-          53^rd Mech, and

-          Kyiv Police Regiment, Omega 5 Regiment (SF).

North of Avdiivka, a Russian assault group advanced across the railway berm north of Krasnohorivka and has reached south-eastern Novokalynove. That place is defended by the 71^st Jäger.

Semenivka: the last few days the Russians did everything in their powers to widen their approach to the Durna River in the Semenivka area and yes, I’ve got another confirmation that the 30^th Motor-Rifle Brigade has got a bridgehead on the western side of this river, south of that village (i.e. between Semenivka and Orlivka). Currently, this is contained by a battalion of the 3^rd Assault Brigade.

….can only hope you know my ‘opinion’ about any kind of Russian bridgeheads by now…

Umanske: that said, the Schwerpunkt of Russian assaults in the last two days was south of Orlivka. Roughly from Tonenke towards West, and in Pervomaiske (this sector is defended by the 68^th Jäger and 53^rd Mech). Most of Pervomaiske is meanwhile under the control of the Russian 9^th Motor-Rifle Brigade, and it must be expected that the Russians are going to reach the road connecting that place with Umanske (that’s north of the Vodiana River) in the coming days.

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Mariinka… generally, the Russians ‘only’ have the (re-filled) 150^th Motor-Rifle Division and the (re-filled) 155^th (quasi) Naval Infantry Brigade in this area, and the two are not only nowhere near their former fame in terms of quality but indeed: nowhere near as well-equipped nor supported as assets of the Group Tsentr further north.

Ukrainian defences are including the 95^th Assault, 31^st and 33^rd Mech, 79^th Airborne, 116^th TD, and (in the south), 72^nd Mech.

Northernmost prong of the Russian assaults in this area is run from Marinka in western direction: on Heorhivka. This is where, as Don observed yesterday, they are not really coming forward for over a month. That said, the last week the Russians have been slightly more successful in the areas further south. Pobieda is meanwhile completely under the Russian control, and they have also taken more than 50% of Novomykhailivka. Moreover, the Russians are advancing into the (low) hills south of the latter village.

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KHERSON & ZAPORIZHZHYA

I know… or at least I’m aware: I’ve created the impression of ‘ignoring’ these battlefields, because I’m rarely reporting about them. But, what shall I really report? The Russians lost 40+ troops while gaining perhaps 50 metres of trenchlines on the Hill 140 north of Verbove, and that without actually even reaching the ZSU frontlines? Another failed Russian assault on the Krymky bridgehead? Destruction of at least three Russian artillery pieces by Ukrainian artillery and FPVs? The fact the Russians are so frustrated by their heavy losses, they are meanwhile summarily executing any Ukrainians who have surrendered? The fact the living conditions for combatants on both sides are such that there are no words that would suitably describe all the terror, misery, and whatever else are they experiencing, every single day?

Come on: I’m going insane just when thinking of that…