Thank you for the update that sounds optimistic enough. Ukrainian media (those not busy with the events from Israel) are pessimistic and report about the colossal numbers of the Russian troops and about the Russian counteroffensive that already began. Very sad news about 52 civilians killed two days ago in a village cafe by Iskander is like a black cloud.
Thanks for the updates. I noticed something odd from Arestovich here https://x.com/arestovych/status/1711002099247427928?s=20. He's being quite pessimistic about Ukraine restoring its 1991 borders. He covered it up with a pessimistic view of Ukraine's ability to prepare itself for major offensives in the coming months. I cant put my finger on it but I find it really odd considering how many Ukrainians have died and lost their homes to even suggest anything other than the 1991 borders being the goal at all times. Maybe since I'm an outsider I dont know the actual feeling of Ukrainians or how much they can put up to fight, but I find his implicit statement odd and have always found him odd and suspect.
Sorry mate: I've got no idea why is Arestovich telling what he does. I know next to nothing about him and, generally, do not pay attention about his statements.
Goals should be realistic. It doesn’t matter how many Ukrainians have died or suffered. As he points out what matters is how much is Ukraine still willing to sacrifice. But even a big number is meaningless without weapons. And that’s problem... Unfortunately the “West” is not willing even to sustain the current level of aid which peaked back in March-April. Not a single modern tank has been contributed since (the Abrams’ were promised back then) nor a long-range weapon. Not even ATACMS with cluster munitions
You wrote " peaked back in March-April. Not a single modern tank has been contributed since" which I have proven to be untrue many were delivered and even more promised..
Just out of curiosity did you used to post here under another name? Something familiar about your posts.
I said “contributed” not “delivered”. I mentioned that the Abrams tanks were promised back in March-April (and yes they are new deliveries but not new aid - I assume that ZSU had them in their planning several months ago) which should be sufficient to most readers to understand what I meant. Anyway,Feb-April was the peak of promised weaponry with actual deliveries lagging from a month to yet-to-happen. No, I started to use Substack after I saw that Tom moved here from Medium.
If you meant "promised" not "delivered" they you are still wrong since many new promises have been made since March-April, for example, over 100 Leopards.
I remind you wrote " peaked back in March-April. Not a single modern tank has been contributed since"
Maybe you have an entirely new meaning for "contributed"?
Interesting point of view. But surely one can have realistic goals why still maintaining the aim of restoring 1991 borders. I find it even more unrealistic to think Ukraine can ever achieve any form of peace if it becomes equivocal wrt restoring its 1991 borders.
He's just writing common sense, what's been obvious for a year, at least to me. All this year's events on the battlefield support his assessment directionally (we can dispute the specific numbers all day), and it was quite the lost opportunity that the EU/US never got around to planning to stand up a full new Ukrainian army (formation) from scratch, while the equipment and the funding were there.
Concerning deliveries, the US are signalling they are going to reduce theirs. In case of GOP victory, the reduction may be drastic. UK signalled they dont have anything to send anymore. Same with Poland. It seems a significant proportions of "minors" UE state like Portugal, Spain or Norway have already sent all they got (aka 3 to 10 Leopard 2). There is no serious industrial mobilization in EU nor even in US and what is done will largely serve as to refill Western stocks or deliver equipment meant to replace those sent to Ukraine.
People who dont realize the West is about to reduce its support to Ukraine rather than improve it are living in their bubble. To state the obvious =/= being a Kremlin agent.
Sometimes I feel like Ukrainians commentators are more lucid of the current situation than Westerner ones (who seemingly have trouble to come to terms with the mediocrity and sheer impotence of NATO). It affects every consideration. From industrial production to the NATO training debacle.
Ukrainian government received a numerous offers to conduct democratic elections of parliament and a president, as well as a list of reforms required to fulfill in 3-18 months in order to continue to receive western support, however USA assured military aid will not be affected. Weeks have passed, but there is still no sign of real intention of the this puppet pro-russian government to implement expected reforms or preparation for democratic elections.
Why don't you directly organise a referendum to ask Ukrainian if they wanted to surrender? This is what you are insinuating, right? Then there is no need to support them. Problem solved.
arestovich has his own agenda -- that is, just to gather as many views as possible to talking whatever controversional talking points that will cause the conversation with his name mentioned.
It was obvious RF don`t have lack of troops or old soviet iron, VSU need more than arthilery to unlock the deadlock. The guided bombs are becoming big problem and long range drones make rear strikes more effective. Without huge deliveries of air-defense and all type of drones, it will be very hard for Ukraine. I`m starting to think that this article is true and USA delivered only 15 billions of equipment and not the promised 40 https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Illarionov_US_Support_V5.pdf
We can argue about the exact numbers a lot but, yeah, one of the biggest mysteries to me in this war have been the zero use of the Lend-Lease Act. I don’t why both sides (Biden administration or Ukraine) hasn’t used it nor even mentioned it.
Creating big numbers of aid (which are partially corrected by now) was very blunt by the U.S. in the beginning.
For example they sent lots of 70 year old M113 (which are still better than your average Ukranian pick up truck in terms of soldier protection) and then they calculated their "worth" in numbers of Bradley IFV they wanted to replace them with. Instead of providing them for "free" and being happy they saved the scrapping costs.
Many thanks Tom for the “return” to Ukraine. As western media (social or conventional) used to spread gloomy reports about Ukraine, I don’t lost time with that. It’s good for own health, believe me.
"Ukraine running out of soldiers" is a frequent theme in Russian propaganda for more than a year now. According to well-informed Russian plants in the west Ukraine is suffering massive losses and the only way to stop the massacre is to stop NATO support for Ukraine so Ukraine's puppet government is forced to the negotiating table and accepts Russia's very reasonable demands. That's basically the way ot goes.
Generally speaking Russia's attrition war strategy heavily depends on the infowar - convince the west Ukraine no longer has the will to fight so they shouldn't give weapons. In the meantime convince Ukraine that the west is going to stop sending them weapons so they lose their will to fight. Repeat and hope for a snowball effect as the war drags on and people become more succeptible to these messages.
Which is the reason credible reporting like yours is crucial as it provides sufficient detail with which to counter this narrative. Russian propaganda tends to break down when they have to provide detail and prove their claims, pointing out where supposed Ukrainian losses happened.
Thank you for the update that sounds optimistic enough. Ukrainian media (those not busy with the events from Israel) are pessimistic and report about the colossal numbers of the Russian troops and about the Russian counteroffensive that already began. Very sad news about 52 civilians killed two days ago in a village cafe by Iskander is like a black cloud.
Thanks for taking the trouble to do this one with everything else going on.
"...because the force still has at least a dozen of brigades working up, or held in reserve. ..."
any supporting evidence for this claim, or is it of the type "Trust me!!!"?
Pulled that out of my small finger. Just like everything else I do.
Why do you ask....?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKeKuaJ4nlw
Thank you for the update!
Thanks for the updates. I noticed something odd from Arestovich here https://x.com/arestovych/status/1711002099247427928?s=20. He's being quite pessimistic about Ukraine restoring its 1991 borders. He covered it up with a pessimistic view of Ukraine's ability to prepare itself for major offensives in the coming months. I cant put my finger on it but I find it really odd considering how many Ukrainians have died and lost their homes to even suggest anything other than the 1991 borders being the goal at all times. Maybe since I'm an outsider I dont know the actual feeling of Ukrainians or how much they can put up to fight, but I find his implicit statement odd and have always found him odd and suspect.
Sorry mate: I've got no idea why is Arestovich telling what he does. I know next to nothing about him and, generally, do not pay attention about his statements.
Goals should be realistic. It doesn’t matter how many Ukrainians have died or suffered. As he points out what matters is how much is Ukraine still willing to sacrifice. But even a big number is meaningless without weapons. And that’s problem... Unfortunately the “West” is not willing even to sustain the current level of aid which peaked back in March-April. Not a single modern tank has been contributed since (the Abrams’ were promised back then) nor a long-range weapon. Not even ATACMS with cluster munitions
"Not a single modern tank...."
US 31 M1 Abrams tanks arrived as of September 2023.
Sweden 10 Stridsvagn 122s Sept 2023
France 10 Leopard 1 A5 [between April 2023 and August 2023].
Germany, Netherlands and Denmark have committed to send more Leopard tanks currently being renovated
But they were promised back in March-April.
LOL!
Wake up at the back of the class there
We are talking about deliveries not promises.
You wrote " peaked back in March-April. Not a single modern tank has been contributed since" which I have proven to be untrue many were delivered and even more promised..
Just out of curiosity did you used to post here under another name? Something familiar about your posts.
I said “contributed” not “delivered”. I mentioned that the Abrams tanks were promised back in March-April (and yes they are new deliveries but not new aid - I assume that ZSU had them in their planning several months ago) which should be sufficient to most readers to understand what I meant. Anyway,Feb-April was the peak of promised weaponry with actual deliveries lagging from a month to yet-to-happen. No, I started to use Substack after I saw that Tom moved here from Medium.
What is your definition of "contributed"?
If you meant "promised" not "delivered" they you are still wrong since many new promises have been made since March-April, for example, over 100 Leopards.
I remind you wrote " peaked back in March-April. Not a single modern tank has been contributed since"
Maybe you have an entirely new meaning for "contributed"?
Interesting point of view. But surely one can have realistic goals why still maintaining the aim of restoring 1991 borders. I find it even more unrealistic to think Ukraine can ever achieve any form of peace if it becomes equivocal wrt restoring its 1991 borders.
He's just writing common sense, what's been obvious for a year, at least to me. All this year's events on the battlefield support his assessment directionally (we can dispute the specific numbers all day), and it was quite the lost opportunity that the EU/US never got around to planning to stand up a full new Ukrainian army (formation) from scratch, while the equipment and the funding were there.
Indeed. I dont get the hate he receives.
Concerning deliveries, the US are signalling they are going to reduce theirs. In case of GOP victory, the reduction may be drastic. UK signalled they dont have anything to send anymore. Same with Poland. It seems a significant proportions of "minors" UE state like Portugal, Spain or Norway have already sent all they got (aka 3 to 10 Leopard 2). There is no serious industrial mobilization in EU nor even in US and what is done will largely serve as to refill Western stocks or deliver equipment meant to replace those sent to Ukraine.
People who dont realize the West is about to reduce its support to Ukraine rather than improve it are living in their bubble. To state the obvious =/= being a Kremlin agent.
Sometimes I feel like Ukrainians commentators are more lucid of the current situation than Westerner ones (who seemingly have trouble to come to terms with the mediocrity and sheer impotence of NATO). It affects every consideration. From industrial production to the NATO training debacle.
Ukrainian government received a numerous offers to conduct democratic elections of parliament and a president, as well as a list of reforms required to fulfill in 3-18 months in order to continue to receive western support, however USA assured military aid will not be affected. Weeks have passed, but there is still no sign of real intention of the this puppet pro-russian government to implement expected reforms or preparation for democratic elections.
"Democratic elections" are next to impossible under the current war censorship https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-elections-war.html
Everything is possible if properly organised. Vast majority of Ukrainian people want election to remove this corrupted and traitorous government
Any proofs?
Why don't you directly organise a referendum to ask Ukrainian if they wanted to surrender? This is what you are insinuating, right? Then there is no need to support them. Problem solved.
Illariaonov called Arestovich a double agent
arestovich has his own agenda -- that is, just to gather as many views as possible to talking whatever controversional talking points that will cause the conversation with his name mentioned.
Great work as usual
Thanks for the report Tom
Thanks. The situation looks worse than even at the peak of Russian invasion - the loss of Lisichansk...
Thank you, Tom!
Strange, ZSU reported only 1 artillery system destroyed yesterday https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1711254459035091422
Not only arty. Two tanks, less than 400 KIA. As if both sides stayed tuned to the news from Israel all day.
It was obvious RF don`t have lack of troops or old soviet iron, VSU need more than arthilery to unlock the deadlock. The guided bombs are becoming big problem and long range drones make rear strikes more effective. Without huge deliveries of air-defense and all type of drones, it will be very hard for Ukraine. I`m starting to think that this article is true and USA delivered only 15 billions of equipment and not the promised 40 https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Illarionov_US_Support_V5.pdf
We can argue about the exact numbers a lot but, yeah, one of the biggest mysteries to me in this war have been the zero use of the Lend-Lease Act. I don’t why both sides (Biden administration or Ukraine) hasn’t used it nor even mentioned it.
Biden may be keeping it as a "quick reaction" option just in case the parliament blocks the aid mode currently used, or the Russians drop a nuke.
Creating big numbers of aid (which are partially corrected by now) was very blunt by the U.S. in the beginning.
For example they sent lots of 70 year old M113 (which are still better than your average Ukranian pick up truck in terms of soldier protection) and then they calculated their "worth" in numbers of Bradley IFV they wanted to replace them with. Instead of providing them for "free" and being happy they saved the scrapping costs.
Many thanks Tom for the “return” to Ukraine. As western media (social or conventional) used to spread gloomy reports about Ukraine, I don’t lost time with that. It’s good for own health, believe me.
When I look at your post in FB the link to this is there but then it disappears after a short time, the links to Don's weekly stay visible?
"Ukraine running out of soldiers" is a frequent theme in Russian propaganda for more than a year now. According to well-informed Russian plants in the west Ukraine is suffering massive losses and the only way to stop the massacre is to stop NATO support for Ukraine so Ukraine's puppet government is forced to the negotiating table and accepts Russia's very reasonable demands. That's basically the way ot goes.
Generally speaking Russia's attrition war strategy heavily depends on the infowar - convince the west Ukraine no longer has the will to fight so they shouldn't give weapons. In the meantime convince Ukraine that the west is going to stop sending them weapons so they lose their will to fight. Repeat and hope for a snowball effect as the war drags on and people become more succeptible to these messages.
Which is the reason credible reporting like yours is crucial as it provides sufficient detail with which to counter this narrative. Russian propaganda tends to break down when they have to provide detail and prove their claims, pointing out where supposed Ukrainian losses happened.
Thank you for the update here with all the other reports and discussions you are part of.