The third - and last-planned - one for today: something like, ‘on popular demand’, because multiple people have requested an ‘update’ on the ground war.
'Doing fine' is - in the present situation - meaning 'not good enough' and 'plenty of people are getting killed for nothing'.
I went through a similar 'expansion' while still young and dumb enough to be enthusiastic about 'endless opportunities' offering themselves. It was ruining entire lives, and that was in peace. I can't stand it any more that there always have to be massive losses 'first', and '5 before 12' before people start thinking logically.
Trying to go through the whole article from War on the Rocks and keep a straight face but the multiple mentions of the Wandering Jew and the Universal Marine Captain/Company Commander and Nothing More is such a turn off.
All these "specialist/think tankers" ever so present in the media have a couple of things in common: retired or reserve low/mid rank and position, usually with a background in support branches and like to have their mouths dirty with big words like "allied transformation" or "interoperability. When I see a company or battalion cmdr. giving advice on Bde. operations and operational planning, this is where I draw line and move on. I understand that this is a paying job that requires you to be seen but it feels forced and too much.
Measured by 'quality of average officer and/or NCO' = weaker.
To Ukraine's huge luck: the VSRF of 2023 is 'ruins' in comparison to what it used to be. Thus, the 'relative' decline in quality of the average ZSU brigade 'doesn't matter' as much.
....unless you're one of its troops blown up because of some stupid officer or incompetent 'little Napoleon' (NCO)...
"This is a frontal attack by a battalion-sized formation run (in the Novodarivka area) over an enemy minefield"
Sorry, yet it is not. It's an artillery strike on a column that gathered in UA rear. And it's not a battalion, not even a full company level.
The Russians were ready/lucky to have a reckon UAV over this squad.
As for the reason of probing attacks - that's simple. GUR cannot get real time intel on every mobile battery, for example; it's just impossible. So the main reason of probing attacks is to enforce the enemy to use them and then hit them with couterbattery fire. That's what ZSU doing last 6 to 8 days in a row, hitting 15 to 36 Russian artillery pieces a day - 4 times more then in average day of this war.
wonder why staging happened during the day in such a close formation? I mean Orlan's have pretty fine day optics, so why commanders behave in such a relaxed manner?
Some UA commanders are just stupid, careless or inexperienced, and I'd bet this one was in careless cohort, maybe too much reliant on some of his arty (counterbattery task) or EW friends.
Agree, but not those supposedly trained to do combined ops . Those are expected to have higher level of situation awareness and all other intellectual qualities required.
Theese 2- or 4-weeks trainings? It's obviously too short to make even moderately good noncoms or junior officers. It's just a patchwork. Better then nothing, yet it's nearly funny to read some western officials bragging with it like they made some great deal of effort.
Training isn't really required to have an understanding that it's not great idea to congregate the force even when it's not on the front lines.
Learning from others mistake isn't something that takes 4 week of training. In fact there the trainings were conducated in March 2023 -- there was plenty of times to go through different scenarios, if only "some UA commanders were not stupid".
Actually it's not a problem of understanding or not-understanding, it's rather a problem of building enough skills to make right decisions possible. For example, the commander have to be able to control his squad. It's easier to do when viewing it by his own eyes and hearing it's noises around. So, every unskillful noncom have a tendency to not hinder soldiers own reflective tendency to bunch up in every opportunity, especially so if they got a radiosilence order. Good expierienced noncom knows well how to scatter his troops enough to not be hit too painfully and in the same time to not lose control over them. The unskillful one have no such ability, it's not an easy skill to get. So he'll has a tendency to neglect a strike risk (wich is just a risk, not an inevitability) and to not loose control (wich is not just a risk but an inevitability for him).
Serving ZSU folks say, Orlans are pretty damn effective and nasty. They fly high and hard to detect, harder than the commercial UAVs. The best thing about them is that VSRF doesn't have enough of them.
120mm mortar fire, not even artillery, if it's the same battery that got a column (these guys weren't at the column shown at the video, judging by their words, but were intended to move after it and hold the village while the column had to go further, and then, if I understand correctly, bumped at the column when it was pinned with fire). They are speaking rather disorderly, it's hard to make a bigger picture of what happened. Yet really no mention of the minefield.
Yeah: perfectly in sense of Auftragstaktik - so 'much embedded' with the ZSU of 2023, right? - for the guys in the second echelon to run into the first echelon which got pinned down, and then both of them have no idea what to do, because nobody taught them to think on their own and assume responsibility and initiative.
Everything is simply brilliant in the la-la land.... the only thing missing is bare-chested Putin, riding a giant fluffy pink bunny: he's quickly shot down, the war is over, and everybody can go home.
It's inevitable: the late Soviet military training was already quite rotten and awfully outdated, and early Ukrainian became just a joke in every aspect except of pure theory; and while some younger mid-rank officers took up their minds after Debaltsevo, yet the Defence ministry as a whole just kept rotting, so now we have just no professional officer corps. The lucky part is that Zaluzhny is actually rizen from those young mid-ranks, and I think he understand the quality of his officers - that's why his strategy is obviously not a Prussian-like, but a Cossack-like: "the large petty warfare".
....15 months since the all-out invasion, this is anything else than inevitable.
If Ukrainians can bitch about NATO idiots being thick thinkers, at least now they should start bitching about their commanders being even thicker thinkers.
Juniour officer's training course is 5 to 6 years, and after it you just have a billet of an officer. 15 months? Not even enough time to make good NATO-style soldier, not to say about noncom. So how it can be NOT inevitable in your opinion? Were we have to get properly trained officers in 15 months? In Germany? They have none themselves, this decade.
They don't have NEARLY enough Orlans. Also, no sanctions are airtight. It is still possible to smuggle the required parts. But it becomes much harder and more expensive.
I know a few guys, students of a military school, 4th year. They were given the rank of lieutenant ahead of schedule and they went to the front. There are too young, windy boys, lacking experience, military wisdom.
Trying to find logic (or at least concept) in the news, I think the Bakhmut attacks are nothing else but forcing the russians to keep forces there - more forces than they would do. Of course, this idea depends on how many UAF troops are engaged on this flank?
The southern attacks - (sigh). It was a fixed bet that any large scale offensive will resemble more to the Kherson campaign than the Kharkiv "cavalry charge". Which means losses, sometime heavy losses. Probably heavier than there, because the Russians have twice as many time to dug in themselves and are afraid twice as much of the UAF offensive. However, in the age of drone warfare one would think that at least in the main direction there are no needs of this style of "recon with force", that they KNOW the targets. One can only pray that the shift towards videos of successful russian attacks on UAF heavy equipment is only because of the OPSEC. Fingers crossed.
Yup, I 'understand' the 'plot' of Bakhmut. The ZSU there is lucky to have a unit as skilled and as well-trained - AND commanded - as the 3rd Assault. This needs deploying only a single battalion to tie down 3-4 Russian brigades.
But, ZSU-commanders elsewhere.... (:faceslap:)
In the south, they must know every mice hole, meanwhile. They do not. They're regularly launching 'cavalry charges' without artillery support; running into minefields; getting tied down and then suffering not only to mines but the Russian artillery, ATGMs, and even air power...
Perhaps I'm in a 'particularly sinister mode' today, but my impression is that of a bloody screw up, already now.
Apropos the 3rd Assault and the issues with training and idiotic officers and NCOs, reminds me of a video by WillyOAM. He interviewed a young American lad that was a volunteer at the start of the war when 3rd Assault was still Azov Kyiv SSO.
He participated in two of their assaults that ended catastrophically bad. One during their attempt to break the siege of Mariupol and other on the Mariinka axis. They just charged ahead and got badly mauled. All the issues you talk about were present then in that unit.
It's fantastic they got their shit together and are a top line formation nowadays, but sadly it seems they had to be badly bloodied before they took their lessons to heart.
It's both tragic and frustrating. I can't help but think the 37th Marine and other new brigades will have to go through a similar process if ZSU doesn't find a way to instill "lessons learned" into their training process. Too much blood was already shed for those "lessons".
Zum verlinkten Video: "Don't you love how Julian isn't showing the video of the Ukrainian forces moving south on the other side of the town? I guess that doesn't support his narrative. Or maybe he just gets his narrative from russian propaganda."
Vlt. nochmal über die Einschätzung oben nachdenken? Julian Röpke ist im übrigen nicht wirklich für seine Akkuratesse bekannt, der hat sich schon einige male von russländischer Propaganda verarschen lassen. Also eher nicht die beste Quelle.
....und wenn's von Putin oder Zelensky oder Skt. Peter und Paulus gepostet wäre, es ist vollkommen egal wer das Video postet: war wichtig ist was es zeigt.
....und was es zeigt ist dass der '2. Echelon' keine Ahnung hat was ist zu tun falls der '1. Echelon' seie Aufgabe nicht erfüllen kann. Was sie dann auch - noch immer im Shock und Entsetzen hier erklären: https://twitter.com/IntelArrow/status/1666521258979106840
Dass ist ein fundamentaler Fehler - nicht nur in Kommandosystem der Einheit, sondern in dem ganzen Militär.
Offiziere = Besserwisser. Daher denken sie gar nicht daran ihre eigenen Soldaten im Nachdenken zu unterrichten. 'Was? Ein bewaffneter Analphabet? Dass ist ja gefährlich!'
Und jedes Mal wenn's passiert gibt eine noch größere Armee an Besserwisser die solche Fehler verteidigen, und jedes Mal muss man 'mit Kopf durch die Wand' - bis die Verluste derartige Ausmaße annehmen, dass selbst die größten Trotteln (die all dies, 'wundersamerweise' immer und in Geborgenheit ihrer Sesselpfürzerei überleben) realisieren: so geht's nicht weiter, wir müssen was ändern.
Also, 'Vlt. nochmals die Einschätzung überlegen' - bevor man weitere Brigaden ruiniert (wie dies schon mit der 28., und 46. und so vielen anderen passierte)....?
Niemand hat behauptet, dass die ukrainische Armee alles richtig macht. Und ich denke, wir alle wissen, dass es da eine Menge Luft nach oben gibt, und jede versaute Aktion nicht nur Mist ist, sondern Menschenleben kostet. Natürlich steht das ausser Frage.
Was für mich aber ebenso ausser Frage steht, ist, dass es nicht hilfreich ist zweifelhafte Quellen zu nutzen, und schon garnicht, wenn man die Hälfte der Geschichte weglässt. Sry, ich kann Ihren Unmut verstehen, aber so ist keinem geholfen.
Ukraine is a huge country with many objects and centers to defend. Three-four times as many AA wouldn't be enough to protect them AND the frontline. It's an attrition war and the quantity of western equipments was barely enough to replace the losses. Add to this that the NATO practically just woke up to the "surprise" of the Shahed-like drones and desperately trying to catch up with the threat. Quatar and Jordan did a big business, selling back their Gepards on two-three times higher price than what they paid for them a few years ago. Skynex is just strated to be on the production line, even the USA has only one batallion with M-SHORAD Strykers.
For such idiocies like babbling the VKS can 'stop' the ZSU on the move - that's easy: it can't. For that, it lacks the necessary ISR-system. It can neither detect and track moving targets on time, nor forward that intel to 'trigger pullers' in real time.
....and even if it could: it would still take them up to one hour to enter the resulting coordinates into the nav/attack systems of jets like Su-30 and Su-34. Because these take at least 30 minutes to 'spool up', and then another 20-30 minutes to program (AFAIK, the 'record-breaker' was an Algerian Su-30MKA, the crew of which managed to 'scramble' 28 minutes after being ordered to do so....which, BTW, was in response to airspace violation by a Tunisian L-59...).
It's on hand, Tsarev is babbling nonsense.
What the VKS can do - and is doing a lot, the last few days - is 'acting as a fire-brigade' by flying its spray and pray attacks. They're replacing the artillery, which simply can't be 'everywhere', nor move as quickly.
On a very cautiously optimistic note: AFAIK the offensive is going on since Tuesday, with attacks at multiple places. Yet in three days the russians posted only three or four "success videos", on a cc. 150 km wide frontline. Hopefully it means that what we see in the social media is not the trend, but the worst cases regarding the UAF maneuvers.
Looks like the "Schwerpunkt" is the Orikhiv-Tokmak direction. (Surprise, nobody would have thought it...) That's where the RuAF is active with guided bombs, that's where the Leo column was spotted. Question is, does the UAF really goes into a face-to-face attack with the VSRF on the probably most well fortified section of the front? And if yes, do they have something else in their sleeves than running against the wall head on? (Like eg. using the supposedly better night fighting capabilities of the western equipment.) Oooor ... are they willing to sacrifice a chunk of the new and mighty hardware to convince the VSRF that it IS indeed the Schwerpunkt and then attack somewhere else?
'Fortifications' are like 'nukes': 'scary' - until one understands them.
For example: until one realises that all fortifications are fixed, and always have a limited field of fire...
....to the surprise of many, such realisations can (must not) result in so-called 'miracles'. Like when one Feldwebel and eight other guys brought the entire French defence system of Sedan to collapse...
yes, and by textbook both the NATO and the Soviet/Russian doctrines are about mobility, trudging through the field fortifications and leaving the mop up to the second, third echelons. Also, in the Kharkiv offensive UAF was able to exploit the weak points and change the direction of attacks to where those were. (Though there were usually no real defense lines behind the front.) We will see whether without air superiority the UAF has managed to work out a modified doctrine. Technically with the more precise artillery they can have a chance to use THAT for mopping up - if they have enough force to break through.
When you are in the epicenter of war, you are torn by injustice. Why does the whole world silently (okay, muttering quietly) watch how evil destroys the economy, the environment, and the best people die? Where are Mi-6 and the CIA? Why hasn't Pudding eaten "Novachok" yet? Why is there still room for debate in this completely clear black-and-white war, does Ukraine have the right to use weapons on enemy territory? It is true that good times breed weak people.
Sorry, but picture of occupation is more complicated: North of this Syria is controlled by Turkey, South (Golan hills) - by Israel, East of Syria - by US troops and central part - by Putin
Nataliia, part of Ireland was occupied by Great Britain (NATO member)but you prefer to stay silent about this. North of Cyprus was occupied by Turkey (NATO member) but you prefer to stay silent about this terrible story too. Half a million (some experts said “one million”) civilians died in Iraq and Afghanistan (due to invasion of West) and I sure you never cried about destiny of these people. Libya and Iraq don’t exist as a countries. Now Ukraine is a battlefield between NATO (expanding step by step all last 30 years to the East) and Russia. Why Asia, Africa or South America have to be worry about it? Once again: you never cried about mass killing in these regions, yes? Moreover, Ukranian troops took part in occupation of Afghanistan, yes? I equally do not support all these above mentioned mass killings. Law and rules of right behavior must be equal for all - Russians, US, GB, NATO, Ukraine or China.
I agree. I also do not support all crimes, but they seemed distant to me and I relied on the UN, NATO and the Red Cross. That's why I wrote: "when you are in the epicenter of war, only then do you feel this acute injustice." But I wanted to draw attention to 2 aspects.
1. In this war, it is unequivocally clear who is right and who is guilty.
2. The whole world is already suffering from this war and from a pragmatic point of view it would be better for him to end this war as soon as possible.
Let’s say, you see a big dog on the street. This dog does nothing and quite relaxed. Then you take a long wooden stick (NATO weapons in Eastern Germany, then in Poland, then in Baltic States and then finally all these partnership and joint military training with Ukraine) and go in direction to this dog. As I said you go in direction to this almost slipping dog with wooden stick in your hand and this dog gradually wake-up. You know exactly that when the distance between you and this dog will be just 1 -2 m then most of such dogs will bark loudly and try to bite you because every dog on the street knows what this stick in your hands means. Moreover, you you are clever person (especially compare to this dog) and you know exactly that when you are walking along the street with this stick then all the dogs on the street are very nervous. Moreover, this is even not your street, you live few blocks away from this street. Who is victim in this case? For me it is a little bit less clear than for you.
About your second sentence: absolutely agree with you - all what happened is TOO MUCH and must be stopped.
But once again - Ukraine took part in occupation of Afghanistan just several years ago and it was not sanctioned by UN. So, from point of view of international law there is no any difference between Ukrainian co-occupation of Afghanistan and this Putin’s invasion. Of course, you can always say “no, there is difference - we killed much less civilians”
60 Leopards 2 + 22 Chalengers and 40 Bradleys and 40(?) Marders.... is for 1 tank brigade. And liars say about 12 brigades.
And liars shout about Great ukrainian counteroffensive! Moscow has 400 brigades... so 1 or even 10 ...oh... EASY WIN. Especially TOTAL russian dominens in air, UAVs, long range strikes, tanks and armored vejicles, and artillery in numbers several times more. And well prepared positions.
Nobody wants to kill Russia - risk of nuclear war is too high. I do think that the plan is to return Russia back to nineties of last century. Step by step. That is why Western weapons will be delivered portion by portion for gradual depletion of Russia. Depletion but not a death. And yes, poor Ukrainian souls - they are used as an expendables in this operation.
And the next, final step is solution of Chinese problem. Import of food and natural resources is a huge problem for China - coastal line/ports can be easily blocked by neighbors and Western countries. But there is Russia from the North and everything required can be easily delivered to China through the Russian border. That is why Russia must be depleted according to this plan.
Yes, my friend, you absolutely right - all these armored vehicles burnt yesterday and today were just rubber-made inflatable toys. Nobody died…
....sadly, it does often look like that, yes....
Ammo basket went up....at least the design is 'working'... the tank is even likely to remain repairable.
'Doing fine' is - in the present situation - meaning 'not good enough' and 'plenty of people are getting killed for nothing'.
I went through a similar 'expansion' while still young and dumb enough to be enthusiastic about 'endless opportunities' offering themselves. It was ruining entire lives, and that was in peace. I can't stand it any more that there always have to be massive losses 'first', and '5 before 12' before people start thinking logically.
Trying to go through the whole article from War on the Rocks and keep a straight face but the multiple mentions of the Wandering Jew and the Universal Marine Captain/Company Commander and Nothing More is such a turn off.
The article is a 'sophisticated advertisment', yes.
But, it confirms and summarises exactly what I get to hear 'from horse's mouth' already since January.
The ZSU of this spring is not the ZSU it used to be in spring of 2022, and thinking anything else is bathing in illusions.
All these "specialist/think tankers" ever so present in the media have a couple of things in common: retired or reserve low/mid rank and position, usually with a background in support branches and like to have their mouths dirty with big words like "allied transformation" or "interoperability. When I see a company or battalion cmdr. giving advice on Bde. operations and operational planning, this is where I draw line and move on. I understand that this is a paying job that requires you to be seen but it feels forced and too much.
А little unclear about your comparison, is the spring 2023 zsu stronger or weaker?
Measured by 'quality of average officer and/or NCO' = weaker.
To Ukraine's huge luck: the VSRF of 2023 is 'ruins' in comparison to what it used to be. Thus, the 'relative' decline in quality of the average ZSU brigade 'doesn't matter' as much.
....unless you're one of its troops blown up because of some stupid officer or incompetent 'little Napoleon' (NCO)...
"This is a frontal attack by a battalion-sized formation run (in the Novodarivka area) over an enemy minefield"
Sorry, yet it is not. It's an artillery strike on a column that gathered in UA rear. And it's not a battalion, not even a full company level.
The Russians were ready/lucky to have a reckon UAV over this squad.
As for the reason of probing attacks - that's simple. GUR cannot get real time intel on every mobile battery, for example; it's just impossible. So the main reason of probing attacks is to enforce the enemy to use them and then hit them with couterbattery fire. That's what ZSU doing last 6 to 8 days in a row, hitting 15 to 36 Russian artillery pieces a day - 4 times more then in average day of this war.
wonder why staging happened during the day in such a close formation? I mean Orlan's have pretty fine day optics, so why commanders behave in such a relaxed manner?
Some UA commanders are just stupid, careless or inexperienced, and I'd bet this one was in careless cohort, maybe too much reliant on some of his arty (counterbattery task) or EW friends.
Agree, but not those supposedly trained to do combined ops . Those are expected to have higher level of situation awareness and all other intellectual qualities required.
Theese 2- or 4-weeks trainings? It's obviously too short to make even moderately good noncoms or junior officers. It's just a patchwork. Better then nothing, yet it's nearly funny to read some western officials bragging with it like they made some great deal of effort.
Training isn't really required to have an understanding that it's not great idea to congregate the force even when it's not on the front lines.
Learning from others mistake isn't something that takes 4 week of training. In fact there the trainings were conducated in March 2023 -- there was plenty of times to go through different scenarios, if only "some UA commanders were not stupid".
Actually it's not a problem of understanding or not-understanding, it's rather a problem of building enough skills to make right decisions possible. For example, the commander have to be able to control his squad. It's easier to do when viewing it by his own eyes and hearing it's noises around. So, every unskillful noncom have a tendency to not hinder soldiers own reflective tendency to bunch up in every opportunity, especially so if they got a radiosilence order. Good expierienced noncom knows well how to scatter his troops enough to not be hit too painfully and in the same time to not lose control over them. The unskillful one have no such ability, it's not an easy skill to get. So he'll has a tendency to neglect a strike risk (wich is just a risk, not an inevitability) and to not loose control (wich is not just a risk but an inevitability for him).
Hm . You say OPPOSITE . I hear during 9 years that Orlan - is a complite russian shit, and sanctions during 9 years stoped it productions long ago.
So somebody must be lying, thousands western analitics, TV and blogs, or you
Serving ZSU folks say, Orlans are pretty damn effective and nasty. They fly high and hard to detect, harder than the commercial UAVs. The best thing about them is that VSRF doesn't have enough of them.
I mean, Orlans could be inferior comparing to what US military use, but still deadly.
Here the troops of the 1st Coy, II Bn, 37th Marine Infantry, complaining about incompetent battalion commander: https://twitter.com/IntelArrow/status/1666521258979106840
I was wrong and you right.... :rolleyes:
120mm mortar fire, not even artillery, if it's the same battery that got a column (these guys weren't at the column shown at the video, judging by their words, but were intended to move after it and hold the village while the column had to go further, and then, if I understand correctly, bumped at the column when it was pinned with fire). They are speaking rather disorderly, it's hard to make a bigger picture of what happened. Yet really no mention of the minefield.
Yeah: perfectly in sense of Auftragstaktik - so 'much embedded' with the ZSU of 2023, right? - for the guys in the second echelon to run into the first echelon which got pinned down, and then both of them have no idea what to do, because nobody taught them to think on their own and assume responsibility and initiative.
Everything is simply brilliant in the la-la land.... the only thing missing is bare-chested Putin, riding a giant fluffy pink bunny: he's quickly shot down, the war is over, and everybody can go home.
It's inevitable: the late Soviet military training was already quite rotten and awfully outdated, and early Ukrainian became just a joke in every aspect except of pure theory; and while some younger mid-rank officers took up their minds after Debaltsevo, yet the Defence ministry as a whole just kept rotting, so now we have just no professional officer corps. The lucky part is that Zaluzhny is actually rizen from those young mid-ranks, and I think he understand the quality of his officers - that's why his strategy is obviously not a Prussian-like, but a Cossack-like: "the large petty warfare".
....15 months since the all-out invasion, this is anything else than inevitable.
If Ukrainians can bitch about NATO idiots being thick thinkers, at least now they should start bitching about their commanders being even thicker thinkers.
Juniour officer's training course is 5 to 6 years, and after it you just have a billet of an officer. 15 months? Not even enough time to make good NATO-style soldier, not to say about noncom. So how it can be NOT inevitable in your opinion? Were we have to get properly trained officers in 15 months? In Germany? They have none themselves, this decade.
After the sanctions from Hell during 9 years, russians have more than ENOUGH Orlans and others, so .....
They don't have NEARLY enough Orlans. Also, no sanctions are airtight. It is still possible to smuggle the required parts. But it becomes much harder and more expensive.
Those are either faint movements to take away attention from the main thrusts or real stupidy on part of planners.
Dumb commanders. Everywhere. That's why 'War by Idiots'.
The mass of company- and battalion-level commanders - on both sides - is good for peeling potatoes. At most.
something is brewing still https://t.me/peredovich0k/387
Daily dose od sarcasm has been replenished :)
I know a few guys, students of a military school, 4th year. They were given the rank of lieutenant ahead of schedule and they went to the front. There are too young, windy boys, lacking experience, military wisdom.
Whoever was in charge of the 'attack' on that video is useful for peeling potatoes only.
Trying to find logic (or at least concept) in the news, I think the Bakhmut attacks are nothing else but forcing the russians to keep forces there - more forces than they would do. Of course, this idea depends on how many UAF troops are engaged on this flank?
The southern attacks - (sigh). It was a fixed bet that any large scale offensive will resemble more to the Kherson campaign than the Kharkiv "cavalry charge". Which means losses, sometime heavy losses. Probably heavier than there, because the Russians have twice as many time to dug in themselves and are afraid twice as much of the UAF offensive. However, in the age of drone warfare one would think that at least in the main direction there are no needs of this style of "recon with force", that they KNOW the targets. One can only pray that the shift towards videos of successful russian attacks on UAF heavy equipment is only because of the OPSEC. Fingers crossed.
Yup, I 'understand' the 'plot' of Bakhmut. The ZSU there is lucky to have a unit as skilled and as well-trained - AND commanded - as the 3rd Assault. This needs deploying only a single battalion to tie down 3-4 Russian brigades.
But, ZSU-commanders elsewhere.... (:faceslap:)
In the south, they must know every mice hole, meanwhile. They do not. They're regularly launching 'cavalry charges' without artillery support; running into minefields; getting tied down and then suffering not only to mines but the Russian artillery, ATGMs, and even air power...
Perhaps I'm in a 'particularly sinister mode' today, but my impression is that of a bloody screw up, already now.
Here the troops of the 1st Coy, II Bn, 37th Marine Infantry, complaining about incompetent battalion commander: https://twitter.com/IntelArrow/status/1666521258979106840
Apropos the 3rd Assault and the issues with training and idiotic officers and NCOs, reminds me of a video by WillyOAM. He interviewed a young American lad that was a volunteer at the start of the war when 3rd Assault was still Azov Kyiv SSO.
He participated in two of their assaults that ended catastrophically bad. One during their attempt to break the siege of Mariupol and other on the Mariinka axis. They just charged ahead and got badly mauled. All the issues you talk about were present then in that unit.
It's fantastic they got their shit together and are a top line formation nowadays, but sadly it seems they had to be badly bloodied before they took their lessons to heart.
It's both tragic and frustrating. I can't help but think the 37th Marine and other new brigades will have to go through a similar process if ZSU doesn't find a way to instill "lessons learned" into their training process. Too much blood was already shed for those "lessons".
Zum verlinkten Video: "Don't you love how Julian isn't showing the video of the Ukrainian forces moving south on the other side of the town? I guess that doesn't support his narrative. Or maybe he just gets his narrative from russian propaganda."
Quelle:
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1666438771137454082?s=20
Vlt. nochmal über die Einschätzung oben nachdenken? Julian Röpke ist im übrigen nicht wirklich für seine Akkuratesse bekannt, der hat sich schon einige male von russländischer Propaganda verarschen lassen. Also eher nicht die beste Quelle.
....und wenn's von Putin oder Zelensky oder Skt. Peter und Paulus gepostet wäre, es ist vollkommen egal wer das Video postet: war wichtig ist was es zeigt.
....und was es zeigt ist dass der '2. Echelon' keine Ahnung hat was ist zu tun falls der '1. Echelon' seie Aufgabe nicht erfüllen kann. Was sie dann auch - noch immer im Shock und Entsetzen hier erklären: https://twitter.com/IntelArrow/status/1666521258979106840
Dass ist ein fundamentaler Fehler - nicht nur in Kommandosystem der Einheit, sondern in dem ganzen Militär.
Offiziere = Besserwisser. Daher denken sie gar nicht daran ihre eigenen Soldaten im Nachdenken zu unterrichten. 'Was? Ein bewaffneter Analphabet? Dass ist ja gefährlich!'
Und jedes Mal wenn's passiert gibt eine noch größere Armee an Besserwisser die solche Fehler verteidigen, und jedes Mal muss man 'mit Kopf durch die Wand' - bis die Verluste derartige Ausmaße annehmen, dass selbst die größten Trotteln (die all dies, 'wundersamerweise' immer und in Geborgenheit ihrer Sesselpfürzerei überleben) realisieren: so geht's nicht weiter, wir müssen was ändern.
Also, 'Vlt. nochmals die Einschätzung überlegen' - bevor man weitere Brigaden ruiniert (wie dies schon mit der 28., und 46. und so vielen anderen passierte)....?
Niemand hat behauptet, dass die ukrainische Armee alles richtig macht. Und ich denke, wir alle wissen, dass es da eine Menge Luft nach oben gibt, und jede versaute Aktion nicht nur Mist ist, sondern Menschenleben kostet. Natürlich steht das ausser Frage.
Was für mich aber ebenso ausser Frage steht, ist, dass es nicht hilfreich ist zweifelhafte Quellen zu nutzen, und schon garnicht, wenn man die Hälfte der Geschichte weglässt. Sry, ich kann Ihren Unmut verstehen, aber so ist keinem geholfen.
Weh' mit Dogmas.
Quelle ist wurscht.
Es ist die Information die zählt.
I wonder what was the reason to announce this "offensive" 3 month in advance to let them prepare for it and even blow a dam right before it?
Russian propogandists ( oleg Tsarev ) said that russian airforces are operating in the south with guided rockets and sucessfully stopped ukrainians.
It means that there is no enought anti-aircrafts in the south
Ukraine is a huge country with many objects and centers to defend. Three-four times as many AA wouldn't be enough to protect them AND the frontline. It's an attrition war and the quantity of western equipments was barely enough to replace the losses. Add to this that the NATO practically just woke up to the "surprise" of the Shahed-like drones and desperately trying to catch up with the threat. Quatar and Jordan did a big business, selling back their Gepards on two-three times higher price than what they paid for them a few years ago. Skynex is just strated to be on the production line, even the USA has only one batallion with M-SHORAD Strykers.
For such idiocies like babbling the VKS can 'stop' the ZSU on the move - that's easy: it can't. For that, it lacks the necessary ISR-system. It can neither detect and track moving targets on time, nor forward that intel to 'trigger pullers' in real time.
....and even if it could: it would still take them up to one hour to enter the resulting coordinates into the nav/attack systems of jets like Su-30 and Su-34. Because these take at least 30 minutes to 'spool up', and then another 20-30 minutes to program (AFAIK, the 'record-breaker' was an Algerian Su-30MKA, the crew of which managed to 'scramble' 28 minutes after being ordered to do so....which, BTW, was in response to airspace violation by a Tunisian L-59...).
It's on hand, Tsarev is babbling nonsense.
What the VKS can do - and is doing a lot, the last few days - is 'acting as a fire-brigade' by flying its spray and pray attacks. They're replacing the artillery, which simply can't be 'everywhere', nor move as quickly.
Last 2 days all "realists" and even "pessimists" like Girkin, Shariy, and Tsarev said the same: "heavy loses, we are winning".
Probably, they all got the same guidance from Moscow, so they are all parroting the same message.
Tsarev went so far to tell that russian air-forces started to use guided rockets at night and stopped Ukraine.
Girkin said also that it was stopped
They're all propagandists, and Girkin is the biggest of their propagandists.
On a very cautiously optimistic note: AFAIK the offensive is going on since Tuesday, with attacks at multiple places. Yet in three days the russians posted only three or four "success videos", on a cc. 150 km wide frontline. Hopefully it means that what we see in the social media is not the trend, but the worst cases regarding the UAF maneuvers.
Exactly. 'Factor time': cruicial when one is fighting the Russians.
....and in need of lots of quick thinkers...
Looks like the "Schwerpunkt" is the Orikhiv-Tokmak direction. (Surprise, nobody would have thought it...) That's where the RuAF is active with guided bombs, that's where the Leo column was spotted. Question is, does the UAF really goes into a face-to-face attack with the VSRF on the probably most well fortified section of the front? And if yes, do they have something else in their sleeves than running against the wall head on? (Like eg. using the supposedly better night fighting capabilities of the western equipment.) Oooor ... are they willing to sacrifice a chunk of the new and mighty hardware to convince the VSRF that it IS indeed the Schwerpunkt and then attack somewhere else?
'Fortifications' are like 'nukes': 'scary' - until one understands them.
For example: until one realises that all fortifications are fixed, and always have a limited field of fire...
....to the surprise of many, such realisations can (must not) result in so-called 'miracles'. Like when one Feldwebel and eight other guys brought the entire French defence system of Sedan to collapse...
yes, and by textbook both the NATO and the Soviet/Russian doctrines are about mobility, trudging through the field fortifications and leaving the mop up to the second, third echelons. Also, in the Kharkiv offensive UAF was able to exploit the weak points and change the direction of attacks to where those were. (Though there were usually no real defense lines behind the front.) We will see whether without air superiority the UAF has managed to work out a modified doctrine. Technically with the more precise artillery they can have a chance to use THAT for mopping up - if they have enough force to break through.
When you are in the epicenter of war, you are torn by injustice. Why does the whole world silently (okay, muttering quietly) watch how evil destroys the economy, the environment, and the best people die? Where are Mi-6 and the CIA? Why hasn't Pudding eaten "Novachok" yet? Why is there still room for debate in this completely clear black-and-white war, does Ukraine have the right to use weapons on enemy territory? It is true that good times breed weak people.
Вам прислати мій український паспорт? Чи ви вирішили мене навчити, як правильно пишеться моє ім'я на рідній мові?
Куди? Дайте E-mail
caution.... (for the last time).
Sorry, but picture of occupation is more complicated: North of this Syria is controlled by Turkey, South (Golan hills) - by Israel, East of Syria - by US troops and central part - by Putin
Nataliia, part of Ireland was occupied by Great Britain (NATO member)but you prefer to stay silent about this. North of Cyprus was occupied by Turkey (NATO member) but you prefer to stay silent about this terrible story too. Half a million (some experts said “one million”) civilians died in Iraq and Afghanistan (due to invasion of West) and I sure you never cried about destiny of these people. Libya and Iraq don’t exist as a countries. Now Ukraine is a battlefield between NATO (expanding step by step all last 30 years to the East) and Russia. Why Asia, Africa or South America have to be worry about it? Once again: you never cried about mass killing in these regions, yes? Moreover, Ukranian troops took part in occupation of Afghanistan, yes? I equally do not support all these above mentioned mass killings. Law and rules of right behavior must be equal for all - Russians, US, GB, NATO, Ukraine or China.
I agree. I also do not support all crimes, but they seemed distant to me and I relied on the UN, NATO and the Red Cross. That's why I wrote: "when you are in the epicenter of war, only then do you feel this acute injustice." But I wanted to draw attention to 2 aspects.
1. In this war, it is unequivocally clear who is right and who is guilty.
2. The whole world is already suffering from this war and from a pragmatic point of view it would be better for him to end this war as soon as possible.
Partially disagree with you:
Let’s say, you see a big dog on the street. This dog does nothing and quite relaxed. Then you take a long wooden stick (NATO weapons in Eastern Germany, then in Poland, then in Baltic States and then finally all these partnership and joint military training with Ukraine) and go in direction to this dog. As I said you go in direction to this almost slipping dog with wooden stick in your hand and this dog gradually wake-up. You know exactly that when the distance between you and this dog will be just 1 -2 m then most of such dogs will bark loudly and try to bite you because every dog on the street knows what this stick in your hands means. Moreover, you you are clever person (especially compare to this dog) and you know exactly that when you are walking along the street with this stick then all the dogs on the street are very nervous. Moreover, this is even not your street, you live few blocks away from this street. Who is victim in this case? For me it is a little bit less clear than for you.
About your second sentence: absolutely agree with you - all what happened is TOO MUCH and must be stopped.
But once again - Ukraine took part in occupation of Afghanistan just several years ago and it was not sanctioned by UN. So, from point of view of international law there is no any difference between Ukrainian co-occupation of Afghanistan and this Putin’s invasion. Of course, you can always say “no, there is difference - we killed much less civilians”
https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-to-help-ukrainians-during-the?utm_source=direct&r=2chyle&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&fbclid=IwAR3OXe2U43Y6-2pAF1x2AnOk9f5uSKYEG8MLMXI9vyzF6Rz4COxz_fvMJ9I
Thx Nataliia.
60 Leopards 2 + 22 Chalengers and 40 Bradleys and 40(?) Marders.... is for 1 tank brigade. And liars say about 12 brigades.
And liars shout about Great ukrainian counteroffensive! Moscow has 400 brigades... so 1 or even 10 ...oh... EASY WIN. Especially TOTAL russian dominens in air, UAVs, long range strikes, tanks and armored vejicles, and artillery in numbers several times more. And well prepared positions.
Oh Yes, 60 Leopaeds + 12 Chalengers easy win against 2500 russian tanks.
So show must go on, poor souls die and liars have money in pockets.
I have to repeat 20th time: West is business partner to Moscow empire, so AGAINST Ukraine win. => impossible the Ukraine win
Nobody wants to kill Russia - risk of nuclear war is too high. I do think that the plan is to return Russia back to nineties of last century. Step by step. That is why Western weapons will be delivered portion by portion for gradual depletion of Russia. Depletion but not a death. And yes, poor Ukrainian souls - they are used as an expendables in this operation.
And the next, final step is solution of Chinese problem. Import of food and natural resources is a huge problem for China - coastal line/ports can be easily blocked by neighbors and Western countries. But there is Russia from the North and everything required can be easily delivered to China through the Russian border. That is why Russia must be depleted according to this plan.
Of course, these are just my thoughts
So, yes, poor Ukrainian souls…
And poor Russian souls too… They are expendables too in this game