The third - and last-planned - one for today: something like, ‘on popular demand’, because multiple people have requested an ‘update’ on the ground war. …. where there is a lot going on, but – actually – next to nothing one can report with any serious dose of certainty. Or if, then solely with help of constantly growing amounts of sarcasm.
Trying to go through the whole article from War on the Rocks and keep a straight face but the multiple mentions of the Wandering Jew and the Universal Marine Captain/Company Commander and Nothing More is such a turn off.
"This is a frontal attack by a battalion-sized formation run (in the Novodarivka area) over an enemy minefield"
Sorry, yet it is not. It's an artillery strike on a column that gathered in UA rear. And it's not a battalion, not even a full company level.
The Russians were ready/lucky to have a reckon UAV over this squad.
As for the reason of probing attacks - that's simple. GUR cannot get real time intel on every mobile battery, for example; it's just impossible. So the main reason of probing attacks is to enforce the enemy to use them and then hit them with couterbattery fire. That's what ZSU doing last 6 to 8 days in a row, hitting 15 to 36 Russian artillery pieces a day - 4 times more then in average day of this war.
I know a few guys, students of a military school, 4th year. They were given the rank of lieutenant ahead of schedule and they went to the front. There are too young, windy boys, lacking experience, military wisdom.
Trying to find logic (or at least concept) in the news, I think the Bakhmut attacks are nothing else but forcing the russians to keep forces there - more forces than they would do. Of course, this idea depends on how many UAF troops are engaged on this flank?
The southern attacks - (sigh). It was a fixed bet that any large scale offensive will resemble more to the Kherson campaign than the Kharkiv "cavalry charge". Which means losses, sometime heavy losses. Probably heavier than there, because the Russians have twice as many time to dug in themselves and are afraid twice as much of the UAF offensive. However, in the age of drone warfare one would think that at least in the main direction there are no needs of this style of "recon with force", that they KNOW the targets. One can only pray that the shift towards videos of successful russian attacks on UAF heavy equipment is only because of the OPSEC. Fingers crossed.
Zum verlinkten Video: "Don't you love how Julian isn't showing the video of the Ukrainian forces moving south on the other side of the town? I guess that doesn't support his narrative. Or maybe he just gets his narrative from russian propaganda."
Vlt. nochmal über die Einschätzung oben nachdenken? Julian Röpke ist im übrigen nicht wirklich für seine Akkuratesse bekannt, der hat sich schon einige male von russländischer Propaganda verarschen lassen. Also eher nicht die beste Quelle.
On a very cautiously optimistic note: AFAIK the offensive is going on since Tuesday, with attacks at multiple places. Yet in three days the russians posted only three or four "success videos", on a cc. 150 km wide frontline. Hopefully it means that what we see in the social media is not the trend, but the worst cases regarding the UAF maneuvers.
When you are in the epicenter of war, you are torn by injustice. Why does the whole world silently (okay, muttering quietly) watch how evil destroys the economy, the environment, and the best people die? Where are Mi-6 and the CIA? Why hasn't Pudding eaten "Novachok" yet? Why is there still room for debate in this completely clear black-and-white war, does Ukraine have the right to use weapons on enemy territory? It is true that good times breed weak people.
60 Leopards 2 + 22 Chalengers and 40 Bradleys and 40(?) Marders.... is for 1 tank brigade. And liars say about 12 brigades.
And liars shout about Great ukrainian counteroffensive! Moscow has 400 brigades... so 1 or even 10 ...oh... EASY WIN. Especially TOTAL russian dominens in air, UAVs, long range strikes, tanks and armored vejicles, and artillery in numbers several times more. And well prepared positions.
Trying to go through the whole article from War on the Rocks and keep a straight face but the multiple mentions of the Wandering Jew and the Universal Marine Captain/Company Commander and Nothing More is such a turn off.
"This is a frontal attack by a battalion-sized formation run (in the Novodarivka area) over an enemy minefield"
Sorry, yet it is not. It's an artillery strike on a column that gathered in UA rear. And it's not a battalion, not even a full company level.
The Russians were ready/lucky to have a reckon UAV over this squad.
As for the reason of probing attacks - that's simple. GUR cannot get real time intel on every mobile battery, for example; it's just impossible. So the main reason of probing attacks is to enforce the enemy to use them and then hit them with couterbattery fire. That's what ZSU doing last 6 to 8 days in a row, hitting 15 to 36 Russian artillery pieces a day - 4 times more then in average day of this war.
Those are either faint movements to take away attention from the main thrusts or real stupidy on part of planners.
Daily dose od sarcasm has been replenished :)
I know a few guys, students of a military school, 4th year. They were given the rank of lieutenant ahead of schedule and they went to the front. There are too young, windy boys, lacking experience, military wisdom.
Trying to find logic (or at least concept) in the news, I think the Bakhmut attacks are nothing else but forcing the russians to keep forces there - more forces than they would do. Of course, this idea depends on how many UAF troops are engaged on this flank?
The southern attacks - (sigh). It was a fixed bet that any large scale offensive will resemble more to the Kherson campaign than the Kharkiv "cavalry charge". Which means losses, sometime heavy losses. Probably heavier than there, because the Russians have twice as many time to dug in themselves and are afraid twice as much of the UAF offensive. However, in the age of drone warfare one would think that at least in the main direction there are no needs of this style of "recon with force", that they KNOW the targets. One can only pray that the shift towards videos of successful russian attacks on UAF heavy equipment is only because of the OPSEC. Fingers crossed.
Zum verlinkten Video: "Don't you love how Julian isn't showing the video of the Ukrainian forces moving south on the other side of the town? I guess that doesn't support his narrative. Or maybe he just gets his narrative from russian propaganda."
Quelle:
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1666438771137454082?s=20
Vlt. nochmal über die Einschätzung oben nachdenken? Julian Röpke ist im übrigen nicht wirklich für seine Akkuratesse bekannt, der hat sich schon einige male von russländischer Propaganda verarschen lassen. Also eher nicht die beste Quelle.
I wonder what was the reason to announce this "offensive" 3 month in advance to let them prepare for it and even blow a dam right before it?
Russian propogandists ( oleg Tsarev ) said that russian airforces are operating in the south with guided rockets and sucessfully stopped ukrainians.
It means that there is no enought anti-aircrafts in the south
On a very cautiously optimistic note: AFAIK the offensive is going on since Tuesday, with attacks at multiple places. Yet in three days the russians posted only three or four "success videos", on a cc. 150 km wide frontline. Hopefully it means that what we see in the social media is not the trend, but the worst cases regarding the UAF maneuvers.
When you are in the epicenter of war, you are torn by injustice. Why does the whole world silently (okay, muttering quietly) watch how evil destroys the economy, the environment, and the best people die? Where are Mi-6 and the CIA? Why hasn't Pudding eaten "Novachok" yet? Why is there still room for debate in this completely clear black-and-white war, does Ukraine have the right to use weapons on enemy territory? It is true that good times breed weak people.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-to-help-ukrainians-during-the?utm_source=direct&r=2chyle&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&fbclid=IwAR3OXe2U43Y6-2pAF1x2AnOk9f5uSKYEG8MLMXI9vyzF6Rz4COxz_fvMJ9I
60 Leopards 2 + 22 Chalengers and 40 Bradleys and 40(?) Marders.... is for 1 tank brigade. And liars say about 12 brigades.
And liars shout about Great ukrainian counteroffensive! Moscow has 400 brigades... so 1 or even 10 ...oh... EASY WIN. Especially TOTAL russian dominens in air, UAVs, long range strikes, tanks and armored vejicles, and artillery in numbers several times more. And well prepared positions.
Oh Yes, 60 Leopaeds + 12 Chalengers easy win against 2500 russian tanks.
So show must go on, poor souls die and liars have money in pockets.
I have to repeat 20th time: West is business partner to Moscow empire, so AGAINST Ukraine win. => impossible the Ukraine win