Ukraine War, 8 June 2023: War by Idiots
The third - and last-planned - one for today: something like, ‘on popular demand’, because multiple people have requested an ‘update’ on the ground war. …. where there is a lot going on, but – actually – next to nothing one can report with any serious dose of certainty. Or if, then solely with help of constantly growing amounts of sarcasm.
As usually, I’m running my ‘review’ clockwise, from north towards the south.
AIR/MISSILE WAR
The last few days, the VKS and the VSRF have heavily bombed the Torske area. Between others, on 2 June, they blew up the bridge connecting that town with Zarichne. In turn, on 2 June, the ZSU hit the village of Sobolevka by BM-21 MRLS, killing two civilians.
Also on 2 June, the PSU hit the port of Berdianks with Storm Shadow cruise missiles, destroying two warehouses there. On 3 June, the ZSU launched at least one Tochka-U ballistic missile at Berdiansk: one was shot down, but the hit blew up its cluster warhead, spreading bomblets all over the place…. Later during the day, the Russians ‘revenged’ by targeting what the Keystone Cops in Moscow called a ‘Ukrainian UAV assembly workshop’ in the residential area of Pidhorodne, outside Dnipro. Ten homes wee damaged, killing one child and wounding 22…
Kharkiv was hit by several S-300s, yesterday. Two people were killed, elven injured.
On 4 June, the Russians cheered the shot-down of four ‘Ukrainian UAV’ over the occupied Crimea, only to realise one was an Iranian-made Mohajer in their own service…
The Keystone Cops in Moscow then earned themselves the prestigious ‘Pearl of the Week’ award for releasing a video purportedly showing attack helicopters destroying Ukrainian Leopard tanks – which turned out to be John Deere combine harvesters… Atop of that, the ‘FighterBomber’ Telegram channel – widely associated with the VKS and considered highly authoritative – then explained the video is from the last year…
In the light of what the Russian monsters did with the Kakhovka Dam, one is left to wonder if there was any sane, non-alcoholised person at any of headquarters anywhere in Russia, or in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, anywhere between Kremlin and Sevastopol, in the period 30 May – 7 June 2023…?
Over the frontlines, both sides reported intensive activity of their air forces (Ukrainians should’ve flown 23 strikes sorties yesterday, 7 June, alone), but neither is releasing any kind of details.
BATTLE OF DONBASS
Belgorod…. Going on since 30 May, the fighting there seems to be growing in intensity, as the Russians might have brought in some reinforcements that weren’t smashed by Ukrainian artillery or ambushes by forward-deployed groups of Russian insurgents already while approaching the combat zone. In turn, the Russian insurgents – those of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSRI), reinforced by the Polish Volunteer Corps – brought in their own reinforcements. Back on 4 June, they claimed to have taken the village of Nova Tavolzhanka. So far they’ve only released evidence of holding the southern part of the village, partially consisting of a small forest, and partially of scattered homes. The northern, ‘urban’ part appears to remain under the Russian control. In similar fashion, further east, the
But, that’s entirely unimportant. MOST IMPORTANT affair on this planet in the Year 2023, is that the government of Belgium is bitterly complaining about the use of Belgian weapons (by Russian and/or Polish insurgents) on the territory of the Russian Federation. Blasphemy! Just like the Swiss-made-, the Belgian-made arms have never, ever, ever, ever been used in 100+ other wars of the last 70 years…
Kupiansk-Svatove… after more action early this month, lately just minor action related to patrolling and attempts to improve this or that position.
Kremina… the same.
Bakhmut…North-West… sigh… Ukrainians claim to be pushing on Berkhivka, north-west of the town, the Russians first claimed they’ve repelled this attack and drove it back, meanwhile they>’re back to reporting Ukrainians near Berkhivka… Sorry, can’t help it: right now, I do not see this getting anywhere.
Bakhmut…South-West…Cannot but agree with Andrew Perpetua that the 3rd Assault of the ZSU appears to be mirroring the Russian manoeuvres from back in January, while trying to recover Klishchivka. That means: this is a slow, bitter battle against a continuous flow of Russian units sent in to replace those that were mauled by a combination of Ukrainian artillery strikes and infantry assaults. Sure, the 3rd is doing well, and producing spectacular videos: AFAIK, by now Ukrainians are ‘quite well entrenched’ atop of ‘that hill above Klishchivka’. However, the point is: where is this going to bring them? Securing the village is going to take days – and bring them nowhere, because it’s positioned low and thus exposed to the Russian fire from the south/south-eastern side.
To change anything in the Bakhmut area to a significant degree, the ZSU needs a much more massive, decisive action further south. Otherwise one can expect Ukrainians to reach Zaitseve for Christmas….next year.
Avdiivka… according to official Kyiv, the ZSU is counterattacking in direction of Vodyane and Opytne, south of Avdiivka. The Keystone Cops in Moscow ‘confirmed’ this. So far, no details have been released, except for this screen-grab from an Ukrainian UAV, shown destroyed and/or abandoned Russian BMPs and BTRs…
Mariinka… just realised I’m missing Kadyrov’s boasting about ‘liberation’ of the ruins of this place. At least haven’t heard any for a week now, while Ukrainians are still firmly entrenched in what’s left of western Mariinka. Could it be, some of the Keystone Cops in Moscow was sober enough – perhaps for long enough to order Chechen ‘Wunderwaffen-Super-Turbo-Special Forces’ (nowadays armed with Chinese-made MRAPs, BTW), into some serious combat, somewhere else?
Southern Front…. If I would be religious, I guess I would start this section with, ‘God, give me strength’…
For orientation: the frontline through southern Zaporizhzhya and western Donetsk is stretching for some 220km – ‘as the crow flies’ – from the Dnipro River to the Bilohiria area. Of course, on the ground, the exact frontline is nearly double that. What exactly is going on here is as hard to assess because
a) Ukrainians are releasing next no information (see ‘OPSEC’), while
b) the mass of what the Russians are releasing is a mix of fantasies and lies.
Problem: like all lies, some of Russian lies contain doses of truth, too – which in turn is imposing sizeable question marks over the exact sense of what are Ukrainians doing.
Along what little the official Kyiv says, the biiiiiiiiiiig offensive didn’t start yet, but: along what one can deduct from what is reported in grand total, it is meanwhile in full swing. Problem: what we get to see of ZSU’s…. ho-hum…. ‘operations’ was nothing else than awful to watch. It would’ve been funny if that was some kindergarten-level kids ‘playing war’. But it’s reality – and, tragically – confirming a lot of what one can read in the article by one of (paid) US advisors to the ZSU, about a week ago: What the Ukrainians Armed Forces need to win.
Since around 2 or 3 June, the centrepiece of most of reported action seems to be the area between Malynivka, Novodarivka, Velyka Novosilka, and Novodonetske. Essentially: hamlets and villages amid huge fields intersected by hedgerows, few minor rivers, creeks and ponds, on a flat terrain.
I’ve mentioned something of this, briefly, in my update from 6 June. From west towards east, the action ‘began’ in the Novodarivka area, where the ZSU attacked from the west and overrun the hamlet. That was confirmed by the Russians, who claimed to have recovered the place….eventually, neither side - but especially no Russians, who are bragging with provision of most of details - have provided any kind of evidence for this.
Further east…. in the middle of nowhere, which - this is now official - is about 2-3km north-east of Rivnopil… apparently convinced his unit is involved in re-enactment of the Pickett’s attack during the Battle of Gettysburg run for some 3rd Class Hollywood movie, one of Ukrainian commanders lined-up his vehicles in the open field, in full view of the Russians and about 2,000 metres north of their positions. Unsurprisingly, this action ended in similar fashion like the Pickett’s attack…
South of Velyka Novosilka, the Russians say that Ukrainians took Neskuchne and Storozheve, then that the VSRF recovered both. If it took place at all, I guess this was an infantry attack from two or three prongs, though, and – merely because the ZSU infantry is usually much better than its mechanised formations (bar 92nd and 93rd Brigades) – I tend to lean towards the first half of Russian reports.
In the Novodonetske area… the essence of the Russian story is something like: Ukrainians came once, liberated the village, then withdrew, then attacked again and were destroyed…
Now, what is so confusing about this entire action?
Some say the Russians are wildly exaggerating Ukrainian losses not only because Shoygu and Gerasimov are in need of good news for Putin, but also because they’re in panic. No doubt, the figures released by Shoygu cannot even be described as ‘science fiction’ any more: ‘hallucinations of a drunkard’ would be ‘closer’. That said, there’s no doubt that the VSRF is ‘on alert’ and thus ready for any kind of Ukrainian attacks: it’s known that the Russian units in southern Ukraine were put on full alert already on 30 May, and all their commanders kind of ‘warned better not to lose their positions’.
Moreover, ZSU units confirmed as involved so far are some of newly-established brigades – but then those equipped with light vehicles, like the 37th Marine Infantry. Units equipped with US-made MRAPs (mine-resistant, ambush protected’) like MaxxPro, and obsolete M113 armoured personnel carriers, or with French-made AMX-10 heavy armoured cars. Thus, ‘conclusion is on hand’: this is no main strike, but the ZSU is ‘running armed reconnaissance’ and/or ‘probing attacks’….
However, I cannot but wonder: ‘armed reconnaissance’ – of what? And, for what purpose? If the GRU MO has not collected enough intel on the Russian dispositions from own sources and from NATO by now – for example because it is too busy organising the above-mentioned ‘Belgorod Brawl’, and unable of multi-tasking – then the ZSU would do better not to run any kind of offensive operations in this area at all. It has only suffered dozens of losses while finding out that….what? ….oh yes: there are Russian positions south of their own.
Others stress the ZSU is running ‘just probing attacks’. What should they ‘probe’? The strength of Russian positions? Seriously? Is anybody there – in Kyiv or anywhere else – in need of finding out how ‘strong’ are the Russian defences along this frontline? If so, I cannot avoid the conclusion that the character in question would do the best service to Ukraine by going out and finding out on his/her own. Thanks a lot, in advance.
Finally: the video here is shown anything else than a ‘probing’ attack. This is a frontal attack by a battalion-sized formation run (in the Novodarivka area) over an enemy minefield without any kind of air- or artillery support. Of all the possible ideas for an enterprise of this kind, this was – by far -the most idiotic one. The responsible commander should’ve been sacked already the moment he presented the plan for this operation. Together with anybody authorising the plan for that action, and/or anybody agreeing with it, or not vocally protesting against it, he should’ve been sent to demonstrate his expertise in peeling potatoes in the public kitchen of Uzhhorod, while learning more about assault operations from watching Western movies of the 1950s….
But hey: never mind! Nothing bad happened – because Prigozhin said that ‘Ukrainians have breached the Russian frontlines’. Arguably, he never said where, but that’s unimportant.
….so, after ‘analysing’ all of this, the only thing I’m certain is that the ‘biiiig’ Ukrainian offensive might have been launched. However, if so, then in some entirely different sector of the frontline, and then with involvement of units equipped with ‘heavy’ gear (see: Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 MBTs, the real ones and no John Deere harvesters or fake photos fabricated by the Keystone Cops in Moscow and their online-consorts).
Hope, this is going to help – and also silence similar demands for at least a few days.
***
Ceterum censeo Russian armis esse extermino.
"This is a frontal attack by a battalion-sized formation run (in the Novodarivka area) over an enemy minefield"
Sorry, yet it is not. It's an artillery strike on a column that gathered in UA rear. And it's not a battalion, not even a full company level.
The Russians were ready/lucky to have a reckon UAV over this squad.
As for the reason of probing attacks - that's simple. GUR cannot get real time intel on every mobile battery, for example; it's just impossible. So the main reason of probing attacks is to enforce the enemy to use them and then hit them with couterbattery fire. That's what ZSU doing last 6 to 8 days in a row, hitting 15 to 36 Russian artillery pieces a day - 4 times more then in average day of this war.
On a very cautiously optimistic note: AFAIK the offensive is going on since Tuesday, with attacks at multiple places. Yet in three days the russians posted only three or four "success videos", on a cc. 150 km wide frontline. Hopefully it means that what we see in the social media is not the trend, but the worst cases regarding the UAF maneuvers.