Yes, the Kursk operation is a bit Hollywood. Great PR but like Tom says probably not what they should be doing right this minute. Russia probably ultimately realises that the the Ukrainians will do their 'thing' and then withdraw, without having to move much in the way of resources.
To Russian leadership, this war is mostly a war of perception.
If it spreads that UA troops are free to "terrorize" inside russia, this will cause more harm to the leadership than the loss of the entire Group Tsentr in a glorious battle (and you know RU PR machine will give this spin and try to sell any defeat as a glorious victory). So its not as pointless as it might appear at first glance.
Remember, Putin CANNOT look weak - not even for a second
Bshitz. Slaves have no honour. Remember first days of war: hundreds ukrainians block roads, throw molotovs on ru vehicles etc. Any evedince for this in Kursk oblast?
It will create an image of weakness first. Russians let Putin do his stuff, But he cannot be weak. Think the weakness effect is larger than the rally effect. They allready can rally,
It's too early too say if it's a stunt or a real operation. Sudzha is strategically important to russia so if Ukraine firmly captures it they won't be able to ignore it.
It's indeed hard to see what is to be gained from this incursion (except attract attention away from the Donbas). Giving it the benefit of a doubt: would the plan be to keep a bit of Russia to use as barter for when negotiations do come ?
That would have to be a pretty big "bit" to have a serious effect. Half an oblast at the very least, not just some villages or towns near the border. So it looks unlikely to me. But the fact that both Ukrainian officials AND "Russian freedom fighters" like RDK/LSR (who undoubtedly play some role there) are still keeping complete silence (as opposed to immediate aggressive PR of the previous RDK/LSR raids) already makes it look different. I guess we'll see...
Yep, that would even make sense in the context of the "resolution to deoccupy ZAES". :) However, taking and reliably holding Kursk NPP would in itself require to capture quite a big chunk of Kursk oblast. With at least a couple more "pincers" elsewhere...
From early reports it seems to be much more serious then anything before. And the trouble is that no one knows if it is stunt operation, or real one, as we do not have info about what real reserves UA has. From early reports it seems that ZSU is not so much moving East, as to the North of the pincer. At least this operation has some favorable conditions, like no heavy mining or concentrated presence of artillery. In the end of the day enemy would have to commit at least division to counter. And it may all end up with good amount of prisoners, if enough groups are cut from main forces. All of that looks like worthy outcomes.
And we all know from reports that currently because of KABs it is really difficult to concentrate forces and have dense lines in the main narrow sectors of ru attacks. Even if one has those reserves.
Something tells me that this whole super duper operation in the Kursk region, organized by megamind Syrskyi, is designed to distract the Russians from the East of Ukraine again, and also to distract the Ukrainian population from his failures there in the East with this info noise.
Thing is, if this is a PR operation then the most striking thing about it is the absense of PR. Ukraine isn't publicizing this at all, we're learning everything from the Russian side. Which does lead to thinking that Ukraine is pursuing actual military objectives there - something like raiding Russian supplies (there's a railway line nearby) or capturing positions that later Russia will have to retake. Because all the reporting is a mess of Russian panic and propaganda it's not even clear if the Ukrainians are there to try and occupy positions or just to destroy some stuff and retreat.
Regardless, I think it's doubtful the troops there could have helped much in the east. After all even if Ukraine wasn't attacking it would still have to keep some troops around Sumy for defence, it cannot empty the border.
To hold something in the Kursk region, you need at least 50-70-100 thousand equipped, well-motivated and well-organized troops. Without artillery, it will be impossible to hold something for a long time with mechanized units alone. And all this grouping must be covered by a sufficient amount of its own air defense, because it will be like with the Russian columns at the beginning of the war. It's more like the small raids that were before it for distraction. Personally, I really don't want all these "genius" raids to end like in Krynyky, Kherson Region, and in Robotyn, Zaporizhzhia Region, where 8 brigades were destroyed, advancing through minefields on 5 lines of defense, without even having the resources for this offensive.
How many soldiers holding 10 vilages in donbas? They can have artilerry support and in winter UA shows that it can hold line also with limited artilerry. In right time they should stop attack and start defending and let RU to destroy another village but on RU side. After there is limited protection there just move away to another village or back to UA.
Questions.
It depends how will RU reacts. With glide bombs and/or with massive artillery's? Then this attack can have some plus.
How is ratio between looses( must be counted at the end)
can they destroy there something important? railways, bridges?
Maybe this units will be better in donbas or maybe not because there is not enough fortification for them and UA has another reserves.
"where 8 brigades were destroyed, advancing through minefields on 5 lines of defense" there's no minefields on 5 lines of defense in Kursk!! Its a very juicy target.
By now, I think nobody expects anything extraordinary for a long time already. Still, it's not like anyone really expected what happened in autumn 2022 (despite all the PR). "Wait and see" is the only option anyway (well, except "participate").
If they fortify in Sudzha and surrounding hills, while reaching Korenevo-Rylsk to the North, whilst moping up to the West, consolidating gains and closing the frontline. Then the resulting length of the front would be same or less then before in this region. They will have Sudzha-Rylsk road under control. And then the same grouping that was supposed to attack in Sumy area, would do it on their own territory, blasting their own towns, etc. So actual increase of presence would probably be needed for 7-10 days, up to a full brigade. And then the same forces that were present already in the area, will hold the line.
Many of Ukraine’s western backers have been more than a little panic-prone when addressing the idea of Ukraine attacking Russia within Russian borders — so much so that they have been largely ok with leaving Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its proverbial back. So It doesn’t surprise me that Ukraine does not go out of its way to trumpet mechanized incursions that cut kilometers into recognized russian borders. It’s (almost) never a good idea to give the folks that supply your ammunition brain aneurisms.
Yup, Biden definitely isn't a fan of all this. Which is one of the reasons I suspect the Ukrainians know what they're doing - keeping silent about this is just delaying the dimplomatic s-storm by a few days. So they must think there's something major to gain here.
And if the Ukrainians are actually there to stay, occupying Russian territory long-term... then wow what a s-storm it's going to be. But ultimately it may end up favoring them as it will completely reshape Russia's strategy. Which was to grab as much of Ukraine as they can, then do a ceasefire. But with parts of Russia being occupied by Ukraine ceasefire is no longer something Russia wants.
From a purely Ukraine Military viewpoint it makes much more sense to cross the border where Russian defenses are weak and then run around inside Russia instead of throwing their forces into the dance of death known as Russian defenses in depth.
Of course there are other probably more influential viewpoints like political, practical &&&
The point here is with what forces the russians react and if they Transfer reserves from the Tsentr group. If they commit National Guard and army divisions from other theatres, this maybe is not harming them in the grand picture.
Russians are told from August 2022 that this is a real war, so they morale is not going to be much shaken by this for the moment.
By the other side, Faith in Ukraine capacity to repeal the Russian army seems to be wavering in the western allies and Ukraine itself. At least, gauging by the now talking about peace at the years end and territorial compromisos.
We need to wait and see what reserves both sides commits in Kursk.
Hi Tom, I think that the MiG-29 of the video is not the gate guardian of Khalino-Kursk airport, but rather a monument in Sudža https://maps.app.goo.gl/8fv1zhvAiGjXyYjS9
Thanks for the update, I'll give the ZSU the benefit of a doubt when it comes to Kursk. I think some expert once said you need to cause your enemy conundrums or something along those lines.
Russian source Rybar "[Russian sources](https://t.me/rybar/62535) claim advanced groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Korenevo which is over 20 km from the border."
That is a very deep penetration but what next?
They woud need a large force to keep it and how would that benefit Ukraine?
Without official statements from Ukraine we are all just guessing.
So far as I know Ukraine would need to travel another 40/50 km to reach the nuclear plant which would not be possible.
Yesterday, Ukrainian troops conducted a raid in the Black Sea along Tendiivska kosa(Tendiivska spit). I think the Genstab-U tries to pull out the Russian forces from the offensive.
With the Vovcha line breached, Ukrainian forces on the Pokrovsk axis need to pull back a few kilometers anyway. A nice ridge runs west of the Vovcha before curving back towards Pokrovsk.
One brigade deployed to conduct a brief raid is a good use of resources if it forces Putin to move reserves otherwise allocated to the Pokrovsk-Toretsk-Chasiv Yar advance. Every time Ukraine does this, Moscow spends months reinforcing the border and building fortification lines. An Iskander was used against a bunch of abandoned MRAPs inside russia - one less to drop on a hospital in Kyiv.
So far I've not seen Bradleys or Strykers (Sullivan would wet himself if heavy US gear is widely used in russia), only BTRs and MRAPs. But I honestly can't tell wheeled APCs apart from drone feeds.
The other neat thing about ops like this is that every orc reserve unit deployed is walking into a HIMARS trap. Even when Ukraine pulls all its troops back, the orcs will lose people and gear securing the border area. Then Ukraine does it again somewhere else.
Операція має змусити пацаків відтягти сили і резерви з Сумщини, Донбасу і Харкова на оборону Курська. Це може дати більший ефект, ніж кинути ті ж самі сили напряму на утримання всіх цих областей, бо їх на це не вистачить.
Thanks for the update. I understand your wish ti stop the «Center» and stabiilize the front lines in Donetsk. And you are probably right that the equipment could be used fruitfully there. But, speaking as a four star arm chair general with no experience and data to back my thinking…. Might not the most important effect here be in the Minds of the Russian HQ? Try to sucker them into doing something stupid?
The Yamal pipelines run through Belarus. But all pipelines that traverse Ukraine were already fully controlled by Ukraine at their exit points into the EU. Indeed, Ukraine has attempted to restrict gas flows in the past. So it's not clear what the point of threatening terminals around Sudzha would be.
Yes, the Kursk operation is a bit Hollywood. Great PR but like Tom says probably not what they should be doing right this minute. Russia probably ultimately realises that the the Ukrainians will do their 'thing' and then withdraw, without having to move much in the way of resources.
To Russian leadership, this war is mostly a war of perception.
If it spreads that UA troops are free to "terrorize" inside russia, this will cause more harm to the leadership than the loss of the entire Group Tsentr in a glorious battle (and you know RU PR machine will give this spin and try to sell any defeat as a glorious victory). So its not as pointless as it might appear at first glance.
Remember, Putin CANNOT look weak - not even for a second
On the other hand, it may cause round the flag effect - Russians would be more willing to joint the army to protect their homeland.
they can join (unlikely as that is) but they cant train them and equip them fast enough anyway
There is perfect stats about ru joining army now: 60% - debts or financial issues, 35% - legal probs, 5% - volunteers
Those how could be called “idealist” are already in frontlines or 200/300 since 2022 latest
Bshitz. Slaves have no honour. Remember first days of war: hundreds ukrainians block roads, throw molotovs on ru vehicles etc. Any evedince for this in Kursk oblast?
It will create an image of weakness first. Russians let Putin do his stuff, But he cannot be weak. Think the weakness effect is larger than the rally effect. They allready can rally,
So basically as usual from the ZSU, another pointless PR stunt
It's too early too say if it's a stunt or a real operation. Sudzha is strategically important to russia so if Ukraine firmly captures it they won't be able to ignore it.
It's indeed hard to see what is to be gained from this incursion (except attract attention away from the Donbas). Giving it the benefit of a doubt: would the plan be to keep a bit of Russia to use as barter for when negotiations do come ?
That would have to be a pretty big "bit" to have a serious effect. Half an oblast at the very least, not just some villages or towns near the border. So it looks unlikely to me. But the fact that both Ukrainian officials AND "Russian freedom fighters" like RDK/LSR (who undoubtedly play some role there) are still keeping complete silence (as opposed to immediate aggressive PR of the previous RDK/LSR raids) already makes it look different. I guess we'll see...
Barter will be good if the ZSU can finish shooting at the Kursk nuclear power plant - this is a good lever for negotiations
Yep, that would even make sense in the context of the "resolution to deoccupy ZAES". :) However, taking and reliably holding Kursk NPP would in itself require to capture quite a big chunk of Kursk oblast. With at least a couple more "pincers" elsewhere...
Perhaps it will be enough to get close enough to shell the station so that the Russians will be more accommodating...
From early reports it seems to be much more serious then anything before. And the trouble is that no one knows if it is stunt operation, or real one, as we do not have info about what real reserves UA has. From early reports it seems that ZSU is not so much moving East, as to the North of the pincer. At least this operation has some favorable conditions, like no heavy mining or concentrated presence of artillery. In the end of the day enemy would have to commit at least division to counter. And it may all end up with good amount of prisoners, if enough groups are cut from main forces. All of that looks like worthy outcomes.
And we all know from reports that currently because of KABs it is really difficult to concentrate forces and have dense lines in the main narrow sectors of ru attacks. Even if one has those reserves.
Something tells me that this whole super duper operation in the Kursk region, organized by megamind Syrskyi, is designed to distract the Russians from the East of Ukraine again, and also to distract the Ukrainian population from his failures there in the East with this info noise.
Thing is, if this is a PR operation then the most striking thing about it is the absense of PR. Ukraine isn't publicizing this at all, we're learning everything from the Russian side. Which does lead to thinking that Ukraine is pursuing actual military objectives there - something like raiding Russian supplies (there's a railway line nearby) or capturing positions that later Russia will have to retake. Because all the reporting is a mess of Russian panic and propaganda it's not even clear if the Ukrainians are there to try and occupy positions or just to destroy some stuff and retreat.
Regardless, I think it's doubtful the troops there could have helped much in the east. After all even if Ukraine wasn't attacking it would still have to keep some troops around Sumy for defence, it cannot empty the border.
To hold something in the Kursk region, you need at least 50-70-100 thousand equipped, well-motivated and well-organized troops. Without artillery, it will be impossible to hold something for a long time with mechanized units alone. And all this grouping must be covered by a sufficient amount of its own air defense, because it will be like with the Russian columns at the beginning of the war. It's more like the small raids that were before it for distraction. Personally, I really don't want all these "genius" raids to end like in Krynyky, Kherson Region, and in Robotyn, Zaporizhzhia Region, where 8 brigades were destroyed, advancing through minefields on 5 lines of defense, without even having the resources for this offensive.
How many soldiers holding 10 vilages in donbas? They can have artilerry support and in winter UA shows that it can hold line also with limited artilerry. In right time they should stop attack and start defending and let RU to destroy another village but on RU side. After there is limited protection there just move away to another village or back to UA.
Questions.
It depends how will RU reacts. With glide bombs and/or with massive artillery's? Then this attack can have some plus.
How is ratio between looses( must be counted at the end)
can they destroy there something important? railways, bridges?
Maybe this units will be better in donbas or maybe not because there is not enough fortification for them and UA has another reserves.
The Ukrainians are long past any minefields in the area.
Sudzah is well within the range of Ukraine artillery so why do you write "Without artillery"?
Claims they shot down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter and a KA-52 so why do you believe they have no air defenses.
As others have posted if this is just for PR then why no Ukranian PR?
"where 8 brigades were destroyed, advancing through minefields on 5 lines of defense" there's no minefields on 5 lines of defense in Kursk!! Its a very juicy target.
Let's see what will come of it. I personally do not expect anything extraordinary.
By now, I think nobody expects anything extraordinary for a long time already. Still, it's not like anyone really expected what happened in autumn 2022 (despite all the PR). "Wait and see" is the only option anyway (well, except "participate").
If they fortify in Sudzha and surrounding hills, while reaching Korenevo-Rylsk to the North, whilst moping up to the West, consolidating gains and closing the frontline. Then the resulting length of the front would be same or less then before in this region. They will have Sudzha-Rylsk road under control. And then the same grouping that was supposed to attack in Sumy area, would do it on their own territory, blasting their own towns, etc. So actual increase of presence would probably be needed for 7-10 days, up to a full brigade. And then the same forces that were present already in the area, will hold the line.
Many of Ukraine’s western backers have been more than a little panic-prone when addressing the idea of Ukraine attacking Russia within Russian borders — so much so that they have been largely ok with leaving Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its proverbial back. So It doesn’t surprise me that Ukraine does not go out of its way to trumpet mechanized incursions that cut kilometers into recognized russian borders. It’s (almost) never a good idea to give the folks that supply your ammunition brain aneurisms.
Yup, Biden definitely isn't a fan of all this. Which is one of the reasons I suspect the Ukrainians know what they're doing - keeping silent about this is just delaying the dimplomatic s-storm by a few days. So they must think there's something major to gain here.
And if the Ukrainians are actually there to stay, occupying Russian territory long-term... then wow what a s-storm it's going to be. But ultimately it may end up favoring them as it will completely reshape Russia's strategy. Which was to grab as much of Ukraine as they can, then do a ceasefire. But with parts of Russia being occupied by Ukraine ceasefire is no longer something Russia wants.
From a purely Ukraine Military viewpoint it makes much more sense to cross the border where Russian defenses are weak and then run around inside Russia instead of throwing their forces into the dance of death known as Russian defenses in depth.
Of course there are other probably more influential viewpoints like political, practical &&&
The point here is with what forces the russians react and if they Transfer reserves from the Tsentr group. If they commit National Guard and army divisions from other theatres, this maybe is not harming them in the grand picture.
Russians are told from August 2022 that this is a real war, so they morale is not going to be much shaken by this for the moment.
By the other side, Faith in Ukraine capacity to repeal the Russian army seems to be wavering in the western allies and Ukraine itself. At least, gauging by the now talking about peace at the years end and territorial compromisos.
We need to wait and see what reserves both sides commits in Kursk.
Great as usual Tom, I send you an abrazo
Hi Tom, I think that the MiG-29 of the video is not the gate guardian of Khalino-Kursk airport, but rather a monument in Sudža https://maps.app.goo.gl/8fv1zhvAiGjXyYjS9
Yup. Perfectly possible.
The show will begin if ZSU captures the nuclear plant in Kursk Peoples Republic. Not sure that Biden will allow it, though.
....he would have a heart-stroke of this century...
"You got to take Sudzha to take the nuclear plant. With the nuclear plant you got Kursk. Kursk you got Moscow. Moscow...you got Putin."
Not quite but it kind of fitted with the Saving Private Ryan quote i was attempting to meme 🤷🏼♂️.
Thanks for the update, I'll give the ZSU the benefit of a doubt when it comes to Kursk. I think some expert once said you need to cause your enemy conundrums or something along those lines.
Russian source Rybar "[Russian sources](https://t.me/rybar/62535) claim advanced groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Korenevo which is over 20 km from the border."
That is a very deep penetration but what next?
They woud need a large force to keep it and how would that benefit Ukraine?
Without official statements from Ukraine we are all just guessing.
So far as I know Ukraine would need to travel another 40/50 km to reach the nuclear plant which would not be possible.
Yesterday, Ukrainian troops conducted a raid in the Black Sea along Tendiivska kosa(Tendiivska spit). I think the Genstab-U tries to pull out the Russian forces from the offensive.
With the Vovcha line breached, Ukrainian forces on the Pokrovsk axis need to pull back a few kilometers anyway. A nice ridge runs west of the Vovcha before curving back towards Pokrovsk.
One brigade deployed to conduct a brief raid is a good use of resources if it forces Putin to move reserves otherwise allocated to the Pokrovsk-Toretsk-Chasiv Yar advance. Every time Ukraine does this, Moscow spends months reinforcing the border and building fortification lines. An Iskander was used against a bunch of abandoned MRAPs inside russia - one less to drop on a hospital in Kyiv.
So far I've not seen Bradleys or Strykers (Sullivan would wet himself if heavy US gear is widely used in russia), only BTRs and MRAPs. But I honestly can't tell wheeled APCs apart from drone feeds.
The other neat thing about ops like this is that every orc reserve unit deployed is walking into a HIMARS trap. Even when Ukraine pulls all its troops back, the orcs will lose people and gear securing the border area. Then Ukraine does it again somewhere else.
Операція має змусити пацаків відтягти сили і резерви з Сумщини, Донбасу і Харкова на оборону Курська. Це може дати більший ефект, ніж кинути ті ж самі сили напряму на утримання всіх цих областей, бо їх на це не вистачить.
Не можна перемогти рашу діючи симетрично
Ви про що? Тут якраз несиметричні дії.
Так і я ж про це. В підтримку Вашого посту
Thanks for the update. I understand your wish ti stop the «Center» and stabiilize the front lines in Donetsk. And you are probably right that the equipment could be used fruitfully there. But, speaking as a four star arm chair general with no experience and data to back my thinking…. Might not the most important effect here be in the Minds of the Russian HQ? Try to sucker them into doing something stupid?
The Yamal pipelines run through Belarus. But all pipelines that traverse Ukraine were already fully controlled by Ukraine at their exit points into the EU. Indeed, Ukraine has attempted to restrict gas flows in the past. So it's not clear what the point of threatening terminals around Sudzha would be.
The pipelines traversing Kursk-Sumy should be:
https://eegas.com/ukr_090115e.htm
Urengoy-Uzhgorod
Yamburg (Progress)
Yelets-Kremenchuk
Yelets-Kyiv
Yelets-Kursk