Ukraine War, 7 August 2024
Hello everybody!
Yes, it’s always the same: I ‘take a step out of my office for a day, and Ukrainians are already….’
Indeed, this time, it seems they’re running an operation kilometres-deep into the Russian Federation… but, let me cover all the news, one by one.
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AIR/MISSILE WAR
3 August:
The Ukrainian GUR agency and the Russian social media have released satellite photos, videos and photos showing results of the 3 August’s attack on Morozovsk AB (Rostov-na-dno Oblast, 270km behind the frontlines… and nope: this is no ‘typo’: rather related to what happened to the sub with the same name….and is happening to the Russian armed forces in that area, ‘in general’). A hit on the local ammunition dump was confirmed - as is the fact that this resulted in a major conflagration that savaged much of the facility.
At least as important is that the strike is confirmed to have destroyed at least one Su-34, and damaged two others (both photos released by the Ukrainian MOD):
….which in turn was cross-confirmed by videos that appeared in the Russian social media.
5 August:
Russians destroyed one or two Buk-M1 TELARs of the PSU (both seem to have been modified ‘FrankeSAMs’, i.e. Buk-M1 TELARS adapted to fire US-made RIM-7 Sea Sparrow SAMs).
6 August:
During the night from 5 to 6 August, the PSU claimed the Russians to have deployed, and its air defences to have shot down:
4 Iskander-M: 2 shot down
2 Kh-59: 2 shot down
16 Shahed attack UAVs: 15 shot down (one seems to have hit some facility in the Brovary area).
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Kursk Oblast (yes, the Kursk Oblast in the Russian Federation)
Ukrainian sources are largely zip-lip on the following; even the official Moscow is not very keen to report about it. Thus the following is a ‘reconstruction based on what one can read in the Russian social media’:
During the night from 5 to 6 August, a group of Ukrainian forces launched a pincer attack into the Kursk Oblast, in the Russian Federation.
As far as can be assessed by now, the northern pincer of this attack was run along the P200 highway, from the border direction to the town of Sudzha; the southern from the border via Kurilovka to Maxnovka and then ‘behind’ southern Sudzha.
Sudzha is no ‘just another Russian town next to the border’, but a place where three main Russian gas pipelines are joining: Yamal-Europe, Progres, and Elets-Kryvy Rih. If my info is correct, these are known to be transporting about 244 million cubic metres of gas per day.
If there was any kind of an official Russian reaction, then that the attack was ‘stopped already on the border’.
However, during the day, it transpired that the Ukrainians drove all the way to Sudzha. This became obvious when the VKS and the VSRF reacted by heavy air strikes and artillery shelling of the town, while the local population began to flee.
It also became obvious that ahead of the advancing Ukrainian troops (and, reportedly, the Freedom of Russia Legion), the ZSU’s FPVs knocked out a number of Russian vehicles, including these two T-62 main battle tanks, still mounted on tank transports:
….numerous Russian troops were captured…
When the Russians attempted to counterattack with their attack helicopters, they promptly lost at least this one Ka-52:
The VKS continued attacking the advancing ZSU units with Su-25s, though:
Moreover, gauging by this still from a video, showing a MiG-29 serving as a ‘gate guard’ at the entrance to the Halino airport - the base of the 105th Guards Composite Aviation Division (flying, between others, Su-30SMs) - the Ukrainians might have hit the place by their UAVs and/or ballistic missiles, too.
According to the Russian social media, the Russian military intelligence (GUR) has ‘identified’ elements of up to five brigades of the ZSU involved in this operation, including the ‘elite’ 22nd Mechanised Brigade, equipped with (US-made) M2 or M3 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and another brigade, equipped with (US-made) Stryker armoured personnel carriers (two of which can be seen on the still from a Russian video below):
As of 22.00hrs the last evening (6 August), the Russian social media ‘corrected’ much of earlier reporting by stating that there are around ‘150-200 Ukrainian troops and 15-20 vehicles’ (i.e. ‘something like motorised battalion’) in control of villages of Daryno, Sverdlikovo, Gogolevka, and Goncharovka, and that early attempts to disloge them from there have all failed.
The town of Sudzha was officially evacuated.
The Russians claimed to have destroyed 16 Ukrainian armoured vehicles (primarily by their UAVs).
The Russians are also reporting that ‘air strikes that showed high efficiency during the day are now difficult because of the high density of the enemy air defences’.
Now… as far as I can assess from different other reports, actually, the ZSU deployed ‘something like a mechanised brigade’ - in total - for this operation. And, while reports about the Russian losses sound great, I’m not entirely sure if this action might be as effective in grand total. Especially not considering what’s going on in the Toretsk- and Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sectors - where the situation is meanwhile so critical that the very same ZSU troops and ammo would’ve been badly necessary, these days.
Namely, from what I can say:
Russian 9th Motor-Rifle Brigade has overcome the ZSU defences (probably the 41st and 53rd Mechanised Brigades) and entered the western Niu York (from the direction of Yurivka, i.e. from the south), and
the Russians (probably the 90th Tank Division) have secured Serhivka, .i.e. seem to have driven a wedge between the 2nd National Guard Brigade and the 68th Jäger Brigade, and are advancing on Orlivka and Mykolaivka, further west. They’re also assaulting Ivanivske and Svyrydonivka, defended by the 47th and 151st Mechanised Brigades (will be ‘talking’ about the 151st slightly more, in due course).
With other words: while it’s ‘sexy’ to drive into Russia and wreak havoc there, the Toretsk- and Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sectors urgently need reinforcements - and a lot more ammunition. Of course, it’s not ‘pleasant’ for the ZSU to constantly ‘react’ to Russian initiative, but it would be about the time to finally stop the advance of the VSRF’s Group Tsentr for good.
From early reports it seems to be much more serious then anything before. And the trouble is that no one knows if it is stunt operation, or real one, as we do not have info about what real reserves UA has. From early reports it seems that ZSU is not so much moving East, as to the North of the pincer. At least this operation has some favorable conditions, like no heavy mining or concentrated presence of artillery. In the end of the day enemy would have to commit at least division to counter. And it may all end up with good amount of prisoners, if enough groups are cut from main forces. All of that looks like worthy outcomes.
And we all know from reports that currently because of KABs it is really difficult to concentrate forces and have dense lines in the main narrow sectors of ru attacks. Even if one has those reserves.
Thing is, if this is a PR operation then the most striking thing about it is the absense of PR. Ukraine isn't publicizing this at all, we're learning everything from the Russian side. Which does lead to thinking that Ukraine is pursuing actual military objectives there - something like raiding Russian supplies (there's a railway line nearby) or capturing positions that later Russia will have to retake. Because all the reporting is a mess of Russian panic and propaganda it's not even clear if the Ukrainians are there to try and occupy positions or just to destroy some stuff and retreat.
Regardless, I think it's doubtful the troops there could have helped much in the east. After all even if Ukraine wasn't attacking it would still have to keep some troops around Sumy for defence, it cannot empty the border.